So now the 2010 MLB regular season is over and it's time for October baseball. We've seen our share of no-hitters, almost no-hitters and no-hitters sabotaged by errant umpiring. We've seen a new shift in power numbers, lower batting averages, lower earned run averages, and wacky pennant races.
Two numbers on many minds are 54 and 13, as in the number of home runs Toronto's Jose Bautista hit this year and last. However, for all those who wish to raise the question of performance enhancing drugs, allow me to offer these numbers instead:
10 = number of home runs Bautista hit during September 2009
54 = number of home runs Bautista hit for 2010
64 = number of home runs Bautista hit since September 1, 2009
I'm not saying Bautista did or did not use steroids as part of his power surge, but I do think we need to keep in mind that he found a groove towards the end of last season and it possibly carried over. I guess we'll need to see how 2011 goes for Mr. Bautista before we jump to further conclusions. After all, the Blue Jays DID lead the majors in home runs this season with 257 and scored more than half their runs (53%) via the long ball, the first team to do so since the 2005 Texas Rangers.
One thing still holds true: If you're going to win your divisional title, you need to beat your competition better than anyone else. I'm no expert on baseball, but I do know something about divisional races and trends. Since the very beginning of the season I harped how the road to a divisional title involved having the best record against divisional opponents. Has my theory held up? For the most part, yes.
In the American League, two of our three divisional winners, Tampa Bay and Minnesota had the best records against their divisional rivals. The Rays were 42-30 against AL East opponents while the Twins were 47-25.
The Texas Rangers, winners of the AL West, were a second-best 32-25 against divisional opponents. The Los Angeles Angels were an AL West best 35-22, but finished 10 games behind the Rangers.
The wild card New York Yankees owned the third-best record against eastern division opponents, 38-34, just behind Toronto's 39-33 record within the AL East.
In the National League, the same trend generally held true for Philadelphia, Cincinnati and San Francisco. The Phillies were a NL East best 44-28 and the Reds were 49-30 against the NL Central. However, the Giants shared the same 38-34 record against NL West teams as the San Diego Padres, but managed to win the division by two games over the Padres (ironically, the Padres were 13-6 against the Giants).
The wild card Atlanta Braves had the second-best record against NL East opponents (38-34).
Speaking of the Padres and Giants, no matter how it's explained to me, I still find it odd and unnecessary to have a playoff game between these two teams in the event San Diego won yesterday (which they didn't) and Atlanta won (which they did). There was a possibility of a three-way tie for two final NL playoff berths, where the Padres, Giants and Braves would all be 91-71. Why should there be a three-way tie when only two of the teams were in the same division? Why should the Padres and Giants play one more game to determine the NL West winner when the Padres would've been 14-5 in head-to-head play during the regular season? Logic (which may not be compatible with MLB tiebreaker rules) should dictate that the NL West title go to the Padres, based on head-to-head records, then have the Giants pair off with the Braves, either in terms of head-to-head record or a tiebreaker game. In other words, the divisional champion should not have to prove itself for one more game if it already would've clinched the divisional title on the basis of head-to-head play.
For the record, Atlanta was 6-4 this season against San Francisco. If we were dealing with NFL tiebreakers, the Padres and Braves would've gotten the playoff berths based on better head-to-head records against the Giants, who would've been sitting home if they lost yesterday. Perhaps MLB needs to take a closer look at how it uses tiebreakers and play-in games before the 2011 season?
How did my post-season predictions go? With the exception of the NL West, I had seven of the eight teams correctly predicted at Labor Day, but reversed the NL East champ and wild card team. Given my successful predictions, I see no reason to change my predictions for the World Series. I still see the Rays winning the AL pennant and the Phillies winning the NL pennant for a third straight year. I still think the Rays will get their revenge for 2008 and beat the Phillies this time in the World Series. Party time on the Howard Franklin Bridge?
Since I'm already sticking with my World Series prediction of Rays over the Phillies, let me push my luck and give my predictions for MVP, Cy Young and Manager of the Year:
AL MVP: While many folks may think Rangers outfielder Josh Hamilton deserves the nod, I'm more inclined to divide the award with someone else wearing a Texas uniform. Hamilton's been hurt recently and missed 29 games. As impressive as his statistics are, I can't help but wonder where the Rangers would be without a vintage year from designated hitter Vladimir Guererro (152 games played, .300 AVG., 29 HR, 115 RBI). Yes, Hamilton sparked the Rangers takeover of first place back in June, and led the American League with a .359 batting average, 32 home runs and 100 RBI, but Guererro sustained them as the season dragged on and a double-digit lead needed to be maintained.
NL MVP: Without a doubt, Cincinnati's Joey Votto deserves the nod (.324 AVG., 37 HR, 113 RBI). Votto led the National League in on-base average, slugging percentage, as well as on-base + slugging average. Votto ranked second in batting average, third in home runs, RBI and total bases, fourth in runs scored and walked received, and was sixth in hits. Votto was clearly the driving force behind the Reds offense and climb to the post-season after a 15-year drought.
AL Cy Young: I can think of a million reasons to give the award to Seattle's Felix Hernandez... 2.27 ERA, 249.2 innings pitched, 232 strikeouts, 30 quality starts out of 34 total starts, 6 complete games, 1 shutout. But I also have a hard time overlooking Hernandez's 13-12 record. If Hernandez had a won-loss record comparable to Steve Carlton's 27-12 for the 1972 last-place Phillies (59-97), then I could justify a full vote, but when your statistics reflect minimal impact as your team's ace, it's hard to overlook. Then again, I have some doubts about giving the nod to either the Yankees C.C. Sabathia or the Rays David Price. Both only pitched two complete games, and only Price pitched a shutout. While Sabathia won more games (21 vs. 19), pitched more innings (237.2 vs. 208.2) and struck out more batters (197 vs. 188), Price was almost half a run better in ERA (2.72 vs. 3.18).
But let's take a closer look at more telling statistics for these aces... Price gave up 170 hits and 80 walks (1 intentional); Sabathia gave up 209 hits and 80 walks (6 intentional). This translates to WHIP of 0.855 for Price compared to 1.256 for Sabathia. Even more telling is that Price only gave up 4 or more earned runs three times all season. On the other hand, Sabathia gave up 4 or more earned runs seven times, including seven in a stinker against the Rays on September 23 at Yankee Stadium. While Sabathia may have won more games, Price's wins seem to count more in terms of quality.
In an ideal world, I think the award should be shared by Hernandez and Price on the basis of statistical dominance (Hernandez) and rising to the occasion as his team's ace (Price). However, if only one pitcher could win, then David Price deserves it for the full body of his 2010 season.
NL Cy Young: As against it as I was most of the past two months, I've finally capitulated to the overall body of work Philadelphia's Roy Halladay. It's very hard to overlook the composite of his 21-11 record, 2.44 ERA, 250.2 innings pitched, 219 strikeouts, 25 of 33 quality starts, 9 complete games and 4 shutouts. The Phillies rode his right arm throughout the season en route to their fourth straight NL East crown.
AL Manager of the Year: In many ways this should be the Manager Redemption Award. Ron Washington came into this season with past cocaine use hanging over his head like a cloud, not to mention financial and ownership issues in the front office. In the closest thing to a wire to wire finish, Washington guided the Rangers to their first playoff berth since 1999, clearly ending 2010 on a much more promising note than 2009. However, honorable mention should be given to Buck Showalter for the job he's done with the Baltimore Orioles since taking over July 30. On July 30 the Orioles were MLB' worst team at 31-70. Since then, the Orioles have gone 35-26, laying perhaps a foundation for a much more competitive team in 2011.
NL Manager of the Year: Again, here's a spot where I think the award needs to be shared. Where would the Reds be without Dusty Baker's guidance of a team that was predicted to be not quite ready this season? Instead, Baker guided a young team and green pitching staff to its first playoff berth since 1995. As impressive as this was, how could we overlook the job Bobby Cox did in his final season with Atlanta and the job Bruce Bochy did with an underestimated Giants roster? Call me wishy-washy, but I feel Baker, Cox and Bochy all deserve this award, and hope sportswriters will find a way to vote accordingly.
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