Of all the issues on the table of discussion regarding the NFL’s collective bargaining agreement (CBA), the proposed 18-game schedule is one among the most-contentious to me. I recently offered my unsolicited views to NFL Commissioner Roger Goodell and NFL Players Association Executive Director DeMaurice Smith. Copied on that letter was New York Daily News columnist Gary Myers. No one responded to my thoughts. Here’s an edited excerpt from that letter:
The 18-game schedule idea is ill-advised, to put it diplomatically. League revenue and player salaries are irrelevant to me on this matter. A 16-game regular season is more than sufficient in terms of providing football fans their “fix” and duration of a season. I can take or leave preseason games, in all honesty, whether they be two or four. If the goal is to extend the NFL season’s three phases (preseason, regular season, postseason) with high-quality football fans pay to see in stadiums around the country, perhaps a wiser use of the existing 4-16 game setup is called for as opposed to a 2-18 setup.
As much as I love the Hall of Fame game, I no longer see the logic or value to two teams having an advanced fifth game. No team should play more than four preseason games, period. Let whichever teams chosen to play in the Hall of Fame game play only four preseason games and provide economic offsets to compensate teams and fans for losing an extra home preseason game. Considering the cost of tickets and attendance figures for preseason games, smart guys like you should be able to think creatively and find a way to make these games more worthwhile for fans and more cost-effective for teams and the league.
What you could do to improve the quality of these games is to spread them out more during August and early September with bye weeks, giving veteran players more opportunities for rest and perhaps encouraging teams to play veterans a little more each game, rather than the mode teams currently operate. Perhaps then you won’t see teams playing 1.5 “real games” and 2.5 “rookie scrimmages.”
This leads me to the real crux of length of season, schedules, and player safety: bye weeks. You simply do not have enough to compensate teams for the level of injuries that keep piling up during a season. I think it would be prudent for the preseason to spread 4 games over a 5-week period, providing each team a bye week and perhaps reducing injury risks players might normally face when 4 games are crammed within 3.5 weeks.
As for the regular season, with a 16-game schedule there needs to be TWO bye weeks for each team, and if you want to go to an 18-game schedule, then each team needs three bye weeks. It no longer makes sense for any NFL team to play 7-8-9-10 consecutive weeks anymore. It’s too much weekly exposure to injury risk and inadequate time to heal from the progression of injuries.
As for the postseason, perhaps it might make sense to give all teams a week off prior to the wild card round, just as there’s a week off between the conference championship games and the Super Bowl. Yes, that gives top seeds two bye weeks prior to the divisional round, but at least this allows for all teams to be sufficiently rested and healed entering their postseason games, AND the week off prior to the wild card round might offer the league flexibility in the event of weather issues, as was the case with games late in this past regular season game (Giants-Vikings, Vikings-Eagles). Yes, I know this is football as opposed to baseball, but we’re also in a new era of global warming and dysfunctional airports and roads during major snow storms.
So, if you put the preseason and regular season schedules in a 4-16 setup according to my proposal (with five total bye weeks), here’s what your new calendar (Thursday-Monday) could look like:
August 4-8: Opening pre-season weekend (including Hall of Fame game)
Aug. 11-15: pre-season weekend #2
Aug. 18-22: pre-season weekend #3
Aug. 25-29: pre-season weekend #4
Sept. 1-5: pre-season weekend #5 (Labor Day weekend)
Sept. 8-12: Regular season kickoff weekend
Sept. 15-19: Regular season weekend #2
Sept. 22-26: Regular season weekend #3
Sept. 29-Oct. 3: Regular season weekend #4
Oct. 6-10: Regular season weekend #5
Oct. 13-17: Regular season weekend #6
Oct. 20-24: Regular season weekend #7
Oct. 27-31: Regular season weekend #8
Nov. 3-7: Regular season weekend #9
Nov. 10-14: Regular season weekend #10
Nov. 17-21: Regular season weekend #11
Nov. 24-28: Regular season weekend #12 (Thanksgiving weekend)
Dec. 1-5: Regular season weekend #13
Dec. 8-12: Regular season weekend #14
Dec. 15-19: Regular season weekend #15
Dec. 22-26: Regular season weekend #16 (X-mas weekend)
Dec. 29-Jan. 2: Regular season weekend #17 (New Year’s weekend)
Jan. 5-9: Regular season weekend #18
Jan. 12-16: Regular/Post season bye weekend
Jan. 19-23: Wild card weekend
Jan. 26-30: Divisional Playoff weekend
Feb. 2-6: Conference Title game weekend
Feb. 9-13: Postseason bye weekend (Pro Bowl?)
Feb. 16-20: Super Bowl weekend
According to my count, that’s a 32-week NFL season with 31 weeks providing fans at least one game to watch among your affiliated TV networks. Too complicated? Not to me, and players from both potential super bowl teams will have the benefit of five bye weeks during their path to the Super Bowl (including the Pro Bowl week).
What to do about team rosters? Expand to 55 active players, in addition to a six-man practice squad, and change the Injured Reserved rules to six weeks as a prerequisite for reinstatement to the active roster instead of players being lost for an entire season or taking up a dead roster spot while they heal from injuries.
To recap:
1. A five-week preseason, where every team only plays four.
2. An 18-week regular season, where every team plays 16.
3. A bye week before the wild card round to account for weather-postponed games or injured players healing
4. Six-week postseason to maximize fan interest and captivation/obsession with the NFL
5. 32 straight weeks of NFL football for the adoring masses of fans
6. 32 weeks of NFL television broadcasting and revenue
7. An NFL season that doesn’t end until pitchers and catcher report to spring training
8. The regular season didn’t increase one iota for individual players
Take-home lesson:
Do the math. Everyone wins. One less issue to battle over.
Monday, February 21, 2011
Sunday, February 6, 2011
Phew! True to form, Packers by a whisker -- Sports Thoughts for February 7, 2011
So much for my prediction of the lowest-scoring Super Bowl in history, but at least I got the right winning team in a competitive and close game.
But it didn’t look like a close game for a while.
What happened? Some observations:
1. Injuries: The Packers lost two key members of their defensive secondary late in the second quarter, Charles Woodson to a collarbone injury and Sam Shields to a leg injury. Before both players went down, the Packers were leading 21-3, thanks to two interceptions of Ben Roethlisberger, one a 37-yard pick-6 by Nick Collins.
So what else is new? 16 members of the Packers roster ended up on injured reserve this season, and the Packers kept filling in their ranks, plugging along, and winning. Granted the defense started to buckle a bit without Woodson and Shields, allowing the Steelers to come all the way back to within 28-25 with seven minutes left in the game, but when plays needed to be made, the Packers found a way. When the Packers needed to snuff out the Steelers and hang onto a hard-fought win, they survived the war of attrition when Collins broke up a 4th and 5 pass from Roethlisberger to Mike Wallace from the Green Bay 33 yard line with less than a minute to go.
On the other hand, the Steelers managed quite well without wideout Emmanuel Sanders (2nd quarter leg injury), center Maurkice Pouncey (ankle) and even right tackle Flozell Adams, out for part of the first half with a should injury.
2. Running Game: As predicted, neither team ran for a lot of yards, but I was surprised how few times Green Bay attempted to run. The Packers rushed only 13 times for 50 yards, certainly effective enough (3.8 yards per carry) to encourage more balance by the offense. The Steelers rushed for an impressive 126 yards on 23 carries (5.5 yards per carry). But the Steelers fell behind 21-3, so Roethlisberger’s arm was needed more and more in order to get back into the game.
3. Turnovers: It’s no surprise turnovers happened. It’s surprising the Steelers were the only ones coughing up the ball. Roethlisberger tossed two first-half interceptions, and Rashard Mendenhall lost a crucial fumble early in the fourth quarter after the Steelers climbed back within 21-17. The Packers scored their third touchdown on Steelers gifts to go up 28-17.
4. Quarterbacks and Receivers: I’m not surprised Ben Roethlisberger and Aaron Rodgers each put up a lot of passes. I’m a little surprised how both seemed out of rhythm for two quarterbacks completing at least 60 percent of their passes. The number of dropped passes by Green Bay’s Jordy Nelson and the Steelers Mike Wallace more than raised my eyebrows.
5. Officiating: I didn’t have too many qualms with the referees, but two calls certainly were questionable. The first was late in the third quarter facemask penalty on Green Bay’s Tom Crabtree at the end of a punt return by Pittsburgh’s Antonio Brown. Looking at the replay, it looked like Crabtree got a hand on Brown’s jersey below his facemask. The penalty gave the Steelers field position at the 50 yard line. Five plays and 2:20 later, Mendenhall scored on an 8-yard touchdown run to make things 21-17.
Later on in the third quarter, Rodgers threw an apparent 3rd and 8 completion to Brett Swain, but the officials ruled it incomplete. Although instant replay confirmed the ruling on the field, it appeared Swain indeed made a clean catch and was down by contact before the ball was dislodged.
6. Scoring Drives: As predicted, neither team necessarily drove the ball consistently against each other on long sustaining drives. Two of the Packers scoring drives started around midfield. Their first-quarter touchdown drive covered 80 yards in 9 plays (capped by a 29-yard Rodgers to Nelson touchdown pass), and their fourth-quarter field goal drive covered 70 yards in 10 plays (capped by Mason Crosby’s 23-yarder with 2:07 left). Pittsburgh also started scoring drives near midfield, and also had two long drives, resulting in their first touchdown (2nd quarter, 77 yards in 7 plays, 1:45) and final touchdown (66 yards, 7 plays, 4:23). The shortest scoring play by either team was eight yards, so we never got to see any goal line plays. In fact, only five of the eight scoring drives by both teams combined involved the red zone, three by the Steelers (2 TDs and 1 FG) and two by the Packers (1 TD and 1 FG). Credit this to both defenses playing as well as possible in terms of disrupting the opposing offenses. Considering a total of 56 points were scored and 725 yards of total offense were generated, that may seem rather odd, but consider there were three Steelers turnovers, four combined sacks (3 by the Packers, 1 by the Steelers), and nine combined punts (6 by the Packers, 3 by the Steelers) to reflect the number of short-circuited drives.
7. Momentum Swings: When Collins returned Roethlisberger’s first quarter interception 37 yards for a touchdown, the Packers were up 14-0, and I started wondering if the pick-6 meant game, set, and match before the first quarter even ended. In case you didn’t know, the biggest deficit a winning team ever came back from in Super Bowl history is 10 points (Washington Redskins, winners of Super Bowl XXII, 42-10 over the Denver Broncos). Yes, the Steelers have comeback capability, but 14-0 in a Super Bowl? When the Packers went up 21-3, my concerns were: (1) are the Steelers toast? And (2) could the Steelers at least make things close in the second half? When the Steelers crept back within 21-17, I wondered if the Packers would be gasping at the end in order to hold off the Steelers like they were two weeks ago in the NFC Championship Game in Chicago. When it became 28-25, I honestly wondered if we were about to witness the biggest collapse in Super Bowl history by the Packers as Roethlisberger kept leading the comeback.
If you think about it, it seems this Super Bowl was a fitting reflection of the Packers and Steelers. During the regular season, 11 of the Packers 16 games were decided by 10 points or less. 9 of the Steelers 16 games were similarly close. Both teams were used to tight contests and dog fights headed down the stretch. The Steelers played Jekyll and Hyde type games in both AFC playoff games against the Ravens and Jets. The Packers also looked like two different teams during their NFC Championship Game win over the Bears. Watching the tide turn a few times seemed fitting.
8. Coaching Decisions: I didn’t have too many issues with either head coaches Mike McCarthy or Mike Tomlin in terms of game plan or in-game strategy. The only decision that seemed rather questionable was Tomlin sending out Shaun Suisham to attempt a 52-yard field goal with 4:30 left in the third quarter and the Steelers trailing 21-17. Suisham’s kick was so wide left it made me wonder if Suisham had any reliable range, even in a domed stadium. Considering it was 4th and 15 from the Green Bay 34, I thought the Steelers should’ve punted and pin the Packers back near their goal line, especially having turned momentum in their favor.
9. Close Shaves: If you watched the post-game interviews, did you notice how quickly several players got rid of their beards in the showers, particularly Roethlisberger? Just wondering if something can more definitively show us the football season is now officially over.
10. Halftime: Why, why, why are these shows so damn long? Was I the only one who got tired of the Black-Eyed Peas after their first song?
11. Fan Withdrawal: Now we all get to worry about the future of the NFL as March 3 and the expiration of the CBA approaches.
But it didn’t look like a close game for a while.
What happened? Some observations:
1. Injuries: The Packers lost two key members of their defensive secondary late in the second quarter, Charles Woodson to a collarbone injury and Sam Shields to a leg injury. Before both players went down, the Packers were leading 21-3, thanks to two interceptions of Ben Roethlisberger, one a 37-yard pick-6 by Nick Collins.
So what else is new? 16 members of the Packers roster ended up on injured reserve this season, and the Packers kept filling in their ranks, plugging along, and winning. Granted the defense started to buckle a bit without Woodson and Shields, allowing the Steelers to come all the way back to within 28-25 with seven minutes left in the game, but when plays needed to be made, the Packers found a way. When the Packers needed to snuff out the Steelers and hang onto a hard-fought win, they survived the war of attrition when Collins broke up a 4th and 5 pass from Roethlisberger to Mike Wallace from the Green Bay 33 yard line with less than a minute to go.
On the other hand, the Steelers managed quite well without wideout Emmanuel Sanders (2nd quarter leg injury), center Maurkice Pouncey (ankle) and even right tackle Flozell Adams, out for part of the first half with a should injury.
2. Running Game: As predicted, neither team ran for a lot of yards, but I was surprised how few times Green Bay attempted to run. The Packers rushed only 13 times for 50 yards, certainly effective enough (3.8 yards per carry) to encourage more balance by the offense. The Steelers rushed for an impressive 126 yards on 23 carries (5.5 yards per carry). But the Steelers fell behind 21-3, so Roethlisberger’s arm was needed more and more in order to get back into the game.
3. Turnovers: It’s no surprise turnovers happened. It’s surprising the Steelers were the only ones coughing up the ball. Roethlisberger tossed two first-half interceptions, and Rashard Mendenhall lost a crucial fumble early in the fourth quarter after the Steelers climbed back within 21-17. The Packers scored their third touchdown on Steelers gifts to go up 28-17.
4. Quarterbacks and Receivers: I’m not surprised Ben Roethlisberger and Aaron Rodgers each put up a lot of passes. I’m a little surprised how both seemed out of rhythm for two quarterbacks completing at least 60 percent of their passes. The number of dropped passes by Green Bay’s Jordy Nelson and the Steelers Mike Wallace more than raised my eyebrows.
5. Officiating: I didn’t have too many qualms with the referees, but two calls certainly were questionable. The first was late in the third quarter facemask penalty on Green Bay’s Tom Crabtree at the end of a punt return by Pittsburgh’s Antonio Brown. Looking at the replay, it looked like Crabtree got a hand on Brown’s jersey below his facemask. The penalty gave the Steelers field position at the 50 yard line. Five plays and 2:20 later, Mendenhall scored on an 8-yard touchdown run to make things 21-17.
Later on in the third quarter, Rodgers threw an apparent 3rd and 8 completion to Brett Swain, but the officials ruled it incomplete. Although instant replay confirmed the ruling on the field, it appeared Swain indeed made a clean catch and was down by contact before the ball was dislodged.
6. Scoring Drives: As predicted, neither team necessarily drove the ball consistently against each other on long sustaining drives. Two of the Packers scoring drives started around midfield. Their first-quarter touchdown drive covered 80 yards in 9 plays (capped by a 29-yard Rodgers to Nelson touchdown pass), and their fourth-quarter field goal drive covered 70 yards in 10 plays (capped by Mason Crosby’s 23-yarder with 2:07 left). Pittsburgh also started scoring drives near midfield, and also had two long drives, resulting in their first touchdown (2nd quarter, 77 yards in 7 plays, 1:45) and final touchdown (66 yards, 7 plays, 4:23). The shortest scoring play by either team was eight yards, so we never got to see any goal line plays. In fact, only five of the eight scoring drives by both teams combined involved the red zone, three by the Steelers (2 TDs and 1 FG) and two by the Packers (1 TD and 1 FG). Credit this to both defenses playing as well as possible in terms of disrupting the opposing offenses. Considering a total of 56 points were scored and 725 yards of total offense were generated, that may seem rather odd, but consider there were three Steelers turnovers, four combined sacks (3 by the Packers, 1 by the Steelers), and nine combined punts (6 by the Packers, 3 by the Steelers) to reflect the number of short-circuited drives.
7. Momentum Swings: When Collins returned Roethlisberger’s first quarter interception 37 yards for a touchdown, the Packers were up 14-0, and I started wondering if the pick-6 meant game, set, and match before the first quarter even ended. In case you didn’t know, the biggest deficit a winning team ever came back from in Super Bowl history is 10 points (Washington Redskins, winners of Super Bowl XXII, 42-10 over the Denver Broncos). Yes, the Steelers have comeback capability, but 14-0 in a Super Bowl? When the Packers went up 21-3, my concerns were: (1) are the Steelers toast? And (2) could the Steelers at least make things close in the second half? When the Steelers crept back within 21-17, I wondered if the Packers would be gasping at the end in order to hold off the Steelers like they were two weeks ago in the NFC Championship Game in Chicago. When it became 28-25, I honestly wondered if we were about to witness the biggest collapse in Super Bowl history by the Packers as Roethlisberger kept leading the comeback.
If you think about it, it seems this Super Bowl was a fitting reflection of the Packers and Steelers. During the regular season, 11 of the Packers 16 games were decided by 10 points or less. 9 of the Steelers 16 games were similarly close. Both teams were used to tight contests and dog fights headed down the stretch. The Steelers played Jekyll and Hyde type games in both AFC playoff games against the Ravens and Jets. The Packers also looked like two different teams during their NFC Championship Game win over the Bears. Watching the tide turn a few times seemed fitting.
8. Coaching Decisions: I didn’t have too many issues with either head coaches Mike McCarthy or Mike Tomlin in terms of game plan or in-game strategy. The only decision that seemed rather questionable was Tomlin sending out Shaun Suisham to attempt a 52-yard field goal with 4:30 left in the third quarter and the Steelers trailing 21-17. Suisham’s kick was so wide left it made me wonder if Suisham had any reliable range, even in a domed stadium. Considering it was 4th and 15 from the Green Bay 34, I thought the Steelers should’ve punted and pin the Packers back near their goal line, especially having turned momentum in their favor.
9. Close Shaves: If you watched the post-game interviews, did you notice how quickly several players got rid of their beards in the showers, particularly Roethlisberger? Just wondering if something can more definitively show us the football season is now officially over.
10. Halftime: Why, why, why are these shows so damn long? Was I the only one who got tired of the Black-Eyed Peas after their first song?
11. Fan Withdrawal: Now we all get to worry about the future of the NFL as March 3 and the expiration of the CBA approaches.
Saturday, February 5, 2011
Hoping Spouse Makes the Right Choice -- Life Thoughts for February 6, 2011
The other day I heard Mark Kelly, the Astronaut husband of Arizona Congresswoman Gabrielle Giffords, was choosing to go forward with his upcoming space mission for NASA in April, leaving his wife to continue her rehabilitation from a January gunshot wound to her brain. While I understand it's his business, as well as their business, deciding whether to go forward on a mission or stay at his wife's side, I can't help but offer my two cents on a private matter that's become very public.
Sir, you're making a bad judgment. You really should stay by your wife's side and forego your mission. Yes, I understand, work is work... but love is love, and you're dealing with a still evolving situation regarding your wife's health and recovery. Yes, I know this is what she'd want you to do, and she fully supports your career, and vice versa... but this is your wife, sans a good portion of her skull because a bullet went through her brain. Yes, I understand, her mother will be there to support and serve as her health proxy... but you're her husband, and if anything, heaven forbid, goes wrong while you're in space, you'll have to live with your decision to choose duty over DUTY.
Perhaps the time you're away will not matter and your wife will continue her progress and recovery, and maybe keeping tabs on her via Skype and internet will be positive for her. However, there's always the possibility something could turn for the worse, or she could experience another setback, or she could suddenly suffer an emotional breakdown because the man who should be at her side is millions of miles away when she needs you holding her hand most.
Why do I say these things? Because I've been there myself. I know what it's like to be in a hospital or rehabilitative facility after traumatic surgery and not have my spouse there at my side. I know what it's like to suffer a post-operative complication, requiring another trip to the operating room, and my ex-wife was thousands of miles away on a business trip unaware of what was going on. I know what it's like to not have your own family members or closest friends physically there at your side when something goes wrong, being all alone in a hospital bed with no support system whatsoever.
Yeah, yeah... people are busy. People have lives. People have jobs. People have vacations. People have other obligations. A person lying in a hospital bed with tubes coming in and out of him or her doesn't understand how pressing everything else is at that moment. That person only understands "I'm in crisis, and where the hell are my loved ones?"
I never fully recovered from my surgical ordeal, neither physically nor emotionally. I never forgave my ex-wife for deciding a business trip to France was more important than being there for her husband. For nine days I was out of communication with her, because seven time zones away was too difficult for her to coordinate for cell phone discussions. My surgeons had to track her down in a Paris airport to let her know I was headed back into surgery for a staph infection. My spouse was my entire family. My only blood relatives were wither living or on vacation in Florida. Even my closest friends were tied up with work, vacations or simply being too far away. I went through the majority of my ordeal all alone. I've hated my ex-wife every day since, even before we divorced. I've disowned my relatives. I no longer trust my own friends the way I used to... sadly, my friends are among the readers of this column and have to hear how I feel through it.
So, Commander Kelly, maybe it'll all work out for the better, but in case it doesn't, don't say someone didn't warn you. Hopefully you'll have the wisdom to change your mind if Congresswoman Giffords' health is iffy a month from now. A lot of things can happen for better or worse in 4-6 weeks. I hope you've given yourself a contingency plan in case it's better you be on Earth than space. If NASA has a problem with it, NASA should be ashamed of itself. After all, we are talking about a bullet passing through your wife's brain, not a broken leg or burst appendix.
If you do go out to space, don't be surprised if your wife's emotions towards you become unsteady. You can talk about how important career and obligation are, but you're still leaving your spouse at a time when she's still vulnerable in many ways. Even if she continues to make great strides in her physical recovery, there's still a lot of emotional healing that may get delayed while you're not there.
Sir, you're making a bad judgment. You really should stay by your wife's side and forego your mission. Yes, I understand, work is work... but love is love, and you're dealing with a still evolving situation regarding your wife's health and recovery. Yes, I know this is what she'd want you to do, and she fully supports your career, and vice versa... but this is your wife, sans a good portion of her skull because a bullet went through her brain. Yes, I understand, her mother will be there to support and serve as her health proxy... but you're her husband, and if anything, heaven forbid, goes wrong while you're in space, you'll have to live with your decision to choose duty over DUTY.
Perhaps the time you're away will not matter and your wife will continue her progress and recovery, and maybe keeping tabs on her via Skype and internet will be positive for her. However, there's always the possibility something could turn for the worse, or she could experience another setback, or she could suddenly suffer an emotional breakdown because the man who should be at her side is millions of miles away when she needs you holding her hand most.
Why do I say these things? Because I've been there myself. I know what it's like to be in a hospital or rehabilitative facility after traumatic surgery and not have my spouse there at my side. I know what it's like to suffer a post-operative complication, requiring another trip to the operating room, and my ex-wife was thousands of miles away on a business trip unaware of what was going on. I know what it's like to not have your own family members or closest friends physically there at your side when something goes wrong, being all alone in a hospital bed with no support system whatsoever.
Yeah, yeah... people are busy. People have lives. People have jobs. People have vacations. People have other obligations. A person lying in a hospital bed with tubes coming in and out of him or her doesn't understand how pressing everything else is at that moment. That person only understands "I'm in crisis, and where the hell are my loved ones?"
I never fully recovered from my surgical ordeal, neither physically nor emotionally. I never forgave my ex-wife for deciding a business trip to France was more important than being there for her husband. For nine days I was out of communication with her, because seven time zones away was too difficult for her to coordinate for cell phone discussions. My surgeons had to track her down in a Paris airport to let her know I was headed back into surgery for a staph infection. My spouse was my entire family. My only blood relatives were wither living or on vacation in Florida. Even my closest friends were tied up with work, vacations or simply being too far away. I went through the majority of my ordeal all alone. I've hated my ex-wife every day since, even before we divorced. I've disowned my relatives. I no longer trust my own friends the way I used to... sadly, my friends are among the readers of this column and have to hear how I feel through it.
So, Commander Kelly, maybe it'll all work out for the better, but in case it doesn't, don't say someone didn't warn you. Hopefully you'll have the wisdom to change your mind if Congresswoman Giffords' health is iffy a month from now. A lot of things can happen for better or worse in 4-6 weeks. I hope you've given yourself a contingency plan in case it's better you be on Earth than space. If NASA has a problem with it, NASA should be ashamed of itself. After all, we are talking about a bullet passing through your wife's brain, not a broken leg or burst appendix.
If you do go out to space, don't be surprised if your wife's emotions towards you become unsteady. You can talk about how important career and obligation are, but you're still leaving your spouse at a time when she's still vulnerable in many ways. Even if she continues to make great strides in her physical recovery, there's still a lot of emotional healing that may get delayed while you're not there.
Ten Reasons why the Packers will win Super Bowl XLV -- Sports Thoughts for February 6, 2011
Okay, drum roll, please... For those of you anticipating the winner of Super Bowl XLV Sunday in Arlington, Texas... the Green Bay Packers will defeat the Pittsburgh Steelers, 10-7, in the lowest-scoring Super Bowl ever.
No way!
Way!
Why Green Bay, and why 10-7? Let me count the ways...
1. Defense: The Steelers and Packers ranked as the top two teams in the NFL in fewest points allowed this season. The Steelers finished first, allowing 232 points; the Packers finished second, allowing 240. In case you're scoring at home, that means if both defenses live up to their regular season statistics, we're looking at a 15-14 type of game. My point? It would be quite ambitious to expect these teams combining for 45 points (the over-under from Las Vegas), much less the 73 points these teams combined for last year in a 37-36 Steelers win.
This is the fourth time in Super Bowl history where the top two scoring defenses met up. The previous matchups were Super Bowl IV (Kansas City-Minnesota), Super Bowl VIII (Miami-Minnesota) and Super Bowl XVII (Miami-Washington). The final scores? 23-7, 24-7, 27-17 (that game included a kickoff return for touchdown). Don't expect a barn burner. If anything, one defense will live up to its billing and the other will eventually fall flat. However, I don't expect that to be the case.
2. Running Game: The Steelers have a decent one, but hardly overpowering. The Packers did without one for most of the season until James Starks broke out during the playoffs. Rashard Mendenhall demonstrated what a force he can be for the Steelers, but keep in mind that his most noteworthy performances were twice against the Jets and the season opener against Atlanta. Otherwise, the Steelers present enough of a running game to keep the chains moving and defenses honest. Don't expect either team to rush for a lot of yards, but definitely expect both teams to attempt 20-25 rushes in order to maintain some offensive balance. If either team is able to rush for an average of 3.0-3.5 yards per rush, that could be effective enough.
3. Offensive Line: Pittsburgh's has been banged up since before the season even started, when they lost right tackle Willie Colon to an Achilles injury. Now they're without Pro Bowl rookie center Maurkice Pouncey to an ankle injury suffered in the first half of the AFC championship game. Before Pouncey's injury, the Steelers ran roughshod over the Jets defense. Afterwards, the Steelers running game was held in check. Although Doug Legursky is quite capable of filling in, there will be a considerable drop-off in how effectively the Steelers run block, especially up the middle, where they ran more than half of their running plays against the Jets. While the Packers offensive line is relatively healthy, there is some reason for concern about 13-year veteran left tackle Chad Clifton holding up against the Steelers pass rushers. Clifton got dinged up during the NFC championship game win at Chicago.
4. Quarterbacks: Okay, Ben Roethlisberger and Aaron Rodgers are clearly among the best in the NFL this season, and if last year's 37-36 game was any indication, both should put on a similar show in Cowboys Stadium. But they won't. Both quarterbacks are nursing bumps and bruises after a long season. Rodgers has suffered two concussions and clearly wasn't playing like himself after a helmet-to-helmet shot from the Bears Julius Peppers two weeks ago. Roethlisberger's played with a broken foot and nose this season. Both quarterbacks are mobile and have strong arms, but both have also taken their share of hits and sacks. Going up against each other's defenses while both units are playing at their best during much of the post-season should make things more challenging than a year ago. Expect both quarterbacks to make plays, but don't expect any sustained consistency.
5. Defensive Backs: Both teams have solid defensive backfields, but each team has its own strength. The Steelers defensive backfield is led by strong safety and NFL Defensive Player of the Year, Troy Polamalu. Although Polamalu has been nursing an Achilles injury for the past several weeks, he's still a force when it comes to blitzes and stopping the run. In fact, the entire Steelers defensive backfield is better known for its run defense than pass coverage, even though the Steelers were fifth in the NFL with 21 pass interceptions this season.
On the other hand, the Packers defensive backfield is a tremendous collection of ball hawks, led by last year's Defensive Player of the Year, Charles Woodson. The Packers have intercepted six passes so far this post-season (adding to their league-leading 24 during the regular season), five combined by cornerbacks Tramon Williams and Sam Shields (the other, by the way, was by super-sized defensive lineman B.J. Raji). The Packers defensive backs are excellent in coverage and can suffocate a receiving corps. In many regards, the Packers ability to generate turnovers is very reminiscent of how the Saints defense operated all season long in 2009 en route to their Super Bowl XLIV title.
6. Pass Rush: Both teams have one. In fact, the Steelers and Packers ranked first and second in sacks with 48 and 47, respectively. Even though Roethlisberger and Rodgers do a good job of eluding the rush, both have taken their hits and all it takes is one to knock a quarterback off his game, or at least a little dizzy.
7. Linebackers: In a 3-4 defensive alignment, a solid linebacking unit is critical. The Steelers bring their own heavy hitters in James Farrior, LaMarr Woodley and James "I hit 'em the way football should be" Harrison. Add in solid depth with Lawrence Timmons and Larry Foote, and you have a unit that's dominant against the run and brutal at blitzing quarterbacks. If the Steelers have any weakness in this unit, it's age and speed to keep up with receivers in pass coverage.
For the Packers, their linebacking unit is young, fast, and hard hitting: Defensive Player of the Year runner-up Clay Matthews, A.J. Hawk, and Desmond Bishop. Matthews led all linebackers with 13.5 sacks during the regular season and 3.5 more during the post-season.
8. Defensive Coordinators: C'mon... are you kidding me?! Dick LeBeau (Steelers) and Dom Capers (Packers) are the godfathers of the zone blitz. While both incorporate their own wrinkles and twists, it's still the same dominant scheme first developed almost 40 years ago by the late Bud Carson, the Steelers defensive guru during their dynasty years of the 1970s.
9. Field Position: Laugh if you must, but neither team necessarily has the best kickoff coverage. It's quite possible both teams could be starting offensive drives in excellent field position. However, one factor many may overlook is Packers punter, Tim Masthay. Masthay has been excellent all post-season with directional punting. The Steelers have already demonstrated a couple of times this season their difficulties with starting drives in the shadow of their end zone (see week 15 and AFC Championship Game safeties allowed to the Jets). If Masthay can pin the Steelers deep on punts, that puts extra pressure on the Steelers offense and a patchwork offensive line, especially with the center-quarterback exchange.
10. Intangibles: Yes, both teams come into the Super Bowl on a roll, but neither team is necessarily operating on all cylinders. The NFL season is a war of attrition, and even the ideal environment of a domed stadium doesn't guarantee a classic offensive show. Players have played the past few weeks in inclement weather, have had to deal with unexpected bad weather in the Dallas area all week as they balance game preparation with the excitement and circus of Super Bowl week. As much as he tries to compartmentalize the events of his season, one has to imagine the media attention Ben Roethlisberger has repeated dealt with might affect his emotions and focus. Even Aaron Rodger has had to deal with Brett Favre questions, even though Favre hasn't quarterbacked the Packers since the 2007 season.
Even if this is "just a football game", it's still THE football game of the year, the most-watched television event of the year, with all kinds of added fluff. NFL teams are used to games kicking off at 1:00pm, 4;15pm or 8:30pm. Sure, once you make it to the Super Bowl, you're already used to primetime kickoffs and extra television cameras, but let's not overlook the potential impact of an extra-long pre-game introduction and hoopla, not to mention an extra-long halftime show. Any number of seemingly benign things could create a focus-breaking distraction. Both teams are clearly the best in their conferences and deserving of this matchup, but one has to take big-game experience into account, normalcy of routine by the coaching staff, as well as players being, or not being, at their peak.
But the bottom line is that when two top defensive teams meet up, the logical expectation is for both defenses to live up to their billing. While both offenses are impressive, neither should have sustained success. I expect a few big plays. In fact, I'd expect those big plays might be the only way either offense can consistently move the ball into scoring position. I don't think either team will be able to consistently drive the length of the field on each other, so I expect few touchdowns to be scored. I also expect we'll see a few mistakes in terms of short-circuited drives and turnovers. I'm also not completely sold on either team's field goal kickers outside the 40 yard line, so scoring will likely be at a premium.
However, I have a little more confidence in Packers placekicker Mason Crosby than Steelers placekicker Shaun Suisham, and this may indeed be the ultimate edge in what should be a very low scoring and close game.
No way!
Way!
Why Green Bay, and why 10-7? Let me count the ways...
1. Defense: The Steelers and Packers ranked as the top two teams in the NFL in fewest points allowed this season. The Steelers finished first, allowing 232 points; the Packers finished second, allowing 240. In case you're scoring at home, that means if both defenses live up to their regular season statistics, we're looking at a 15-14 type of game. My point? It would be quite ambitious to expect these teams combining for 45 points (the over-under from Las Vegas), much less the 73 points these teams combined for last year in a 37-36 Steelers win.
This is the fourth time in Super Bowl history where the top two scoring defenses met up. The previous matchups were Super Bowl IV (Kansas City-Minnesota), Super Bowl VIII (Miami-Minnesota) and Super Bowl XVII (Miami-Washington). The final scores? 23-7, 24-7, 27-17 (that game included a kickoff return for touchdown). Don't expect a barn burner. If anything, one defense will live up to its billing and the other will eventually fall flat. However, I don't expect that to be the case.
2. Running Game: The Steelers have a decent one, but hardly overpowering. The Packers did without one for most of the season until James Starks broke out during the playoffs. Rashard Mendenhall demonstrated what a force he can be for the Steelers, but keep in mind that his most noteworthy performances were twice against the Jets and the season opener against Atlanta. Otherwise, the Steelers present enough of a running game to keep the chains moving and defenses honest. Don't expect either team to rush for a lot of yards, but definitely expect both teams to attempt 20-25 rushes in order to maintain some offensive balance. If either team is able to rush for an average of 3.0-3.5 yards per rush, that could be effective enough.
3. Offensive Line: Pittsburgh's has been banged up since before the season even started, when they lost right tackle Willie Colon to an Achilles injury. Now they're without Pro Bowl rookie center Maurkice Pouncey to an ankle injury suffered in the first half of the AFC championship game. Before Pouncey's injury, the Steelers ran roughshod over the Jets defense. Afterwards, the Steelers running game was held in check. Although Doug Legursky is quite capable of filling in, there will be a considerable drop-off in how effectively the Steelers run block, especially up the middle, where they ran more than half of their running plays against the Jets. While the Packers offensive line is relatively healthy, there is some reason for concern about 13-year veteran left tackle Chad Clifton holding up against the Steelers pass rushers. Clifton got dinged up during the NFC championship game win at Chicago.
4. Quarterbacks: Okay, Ben Roethlisberger and Aaron Rodgers are clearly among the best in the NFL this season, and if last year's 37-36 game was any indication, both should put on a similar show in Cowboys Stadium. But they won't. Both quarterbacks are nursing bumps and bruises after a long season. Rodgers has suffered two concussions and clearly wasn't playing like himself after a helmet-to-helmet shot from the Bears Julius Peppers two weeks ago. Roethlisberger's played with a broken foot and nose this season. Both quarterbacks are mobile and have strong arms, but both have also taken their share of hits and sacks. Going up against each other's defenses while both units are playing at their best during much of the post-season should make things more challenging than a year ago. Expect both quarterbacks to make plays, but don't expect any sustained consistency.
5. Defensive Backs: Both teams have solid defensive backfields, but each team has its own strength. The Steelers defensive backfield is led by strong safety and NFL Defensive Player of the Year, Troy Polamalu. Although Polamalu has been nursing an Achilles injury for the past several weeks, he's still a force when it comes to blitzes and stopping the run. In fact, the entire Steelers defensive backfield is better known for its run defense than pass coverage, even though the Steelers were fifth in the NFL with 21 pass interceptions this season.
On the other hand, the Packers defensive backfield is a tremendous collection of ball hawks, led by last year's Defensive Player of the Year, Charles Woodson. The Packers have intercepted six passes so far this post-season (adding to their league-leading 24 during the regular season), five combined by cornerbacks Tramon Williams and Sam Shields (the other, by the way, was by super-sized defensive lineman B.J. Raji). The Packers defensive backs are excellent in coverage and can suffocate a receiving corps. In many regards, the Packers ability to generate turnovers is very reminiscent of how the Saints defense operated all season long in 2009 en route to their Super Bowl XLIV title.
6. Pass Rush: Both teams have one. In fact, the Steelers and Packers ranked first and second in sacks with 48 and 47, respectively. Even though Roethlisberger and Rodgers do a good job of eluding the rush, both have taken their hits and all it takes is one to knock a quarterback off his game, or at least a little dizzy.
7. Linebackers: In a 3-4 defensive alignment, a solid linebacking unit is critical. The Steelers bring their own heavy hitters in James Farrior, LaMarr Woodley and James "I hit 'em the way football should be" Harrison. Add in solid depth with Lawrence Timmons and Larry Foote, and you have a unit that's dominant against the run and brutal at blitzing quarterbacks. If the Steelers have any weakness in this unit, it's age and speed to keep up with receivers in pass coverage.
For the Packers, their linebacking unit is young, fast, and hard hitting: Defensive Player of the Year runner-up Clay Matthews, A.J. Hawk, and Desmond Bishop. Matthews led all linebackers with 13.5 sacks during the regular season and 3.5 more during the post-season.
8. Defensive Coordinators: C'mon... are you kidding me?! Dick LeBeau (Steelers) and Dom Capers (Packers) are the godfathers of the zone blitz. While both incorporate their own wrinkles and twists, it's still the same dominant scheme first developed almost 40 years ago by the late Bud Carson, the Steelers defensive guru during their dynasty years of the 1970s.
9. Field Position: Laugh if you must, but neither team necessarily has the best kickoff coverage. It's quite possible both teams could be starting offensive drives in excellent field position. However, one factor many may overlook is Packers punter, Tim Masthay. Masthay has been excellent all post-season with directional punting. The Steelers have already demonstrated a couple of times this season their difficulties with starting drives in the shadow of their end zone (see week 15 and AFC Championship Game safeties allowed to the Jets). If Masthay can pin the Steelers deep on punts, that puts extra pressure on the Steelers offense and a patchwork offensive line, especially with the center-quarterback exchange.
10. Intangibles: Yes, both teams come into the Super Bowl on a roll, but neither team is necessarily operating on all cylinders. The NFL season is a war of attrition, and even the ideal environment of a domed stadium doesn't guarantee a classic offensive show. Players have played the past few weeks in inclement weather, have had to deal with unexpected bad weather in the Dallas area all week as they balance game preparation with the excitement and circus of Super Bowl week. As much as he tries to compartmentalize the events of his season, one has to imagine the media attention Ben Roethlisberger has repeated dealt with might affect his emotions and focus. Even Aaron Rodger has had to deal with Brett Favre questions, even though Favre hasn't quarterbacked the Packers since the 2007 season.
Even if this is "just a football game", it's still THE football game of the year, the most-watched television event of the year, with all kinds of added fluff. NFL teams are used to games kicking off at 1:00pm, 4;15pm or 8:30pm. Sure, once you make it to the Super Bowl, you're already used to primetime kickoffs and extra television cameras, but let's not overlook the potential impact of an extra-long pre-game introduction and hoopla, not to mention an extra-long halftime show. Any number of seemingly benign things could create a focus-breaking distraction. Both teams are clearly the best in their conferences and deserving of this matchup, but one has to take big-game experience into account, normalcy of routine by the coaching staff, as well as players being, or not being, at their peak.
But the bottom line is that when two top defensive teams meet up, the logical expectation is for both defenses to live up to their billing. While both offenses are impressive, neither should have sustained success. I expect a few big plays. In fact, I'd expect those big plays might be the only way either offense can consistently move the ball into scoring position. I don't think either team will be able to consistently drive the length of the field on each other, so I expect few touchdowns to be scored. I also expect we'll see a few mistakes in terms of short-circuited drives and turnovers. I'm also not completely sold on either team's field goal kickers outside the 40 yard line, so scoring will likely be at a premium.
However, I have a little more confidence in Packers placekicker Mason Crosby than Steelers placekicker Shaun Suisham, and this may indeed be the ultimate edge in what should be a very low scoring and close game.
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