I know it's been a while since my last column, so after all the recent excitement of an earthquake and hurricane Irene, I've suddenly found myself a spare moment or two to comment about this year's baseball season. Have you enjoyed it as much as I have, despite my being a loyal Mets fan (hey, I figured a .500 season was good enough for all the Wilpons and their feisty troops have endured since spring training)? More importantly, has anything really surprised you for the better or worse? Well, in some ways this season has been both full of pleasant surprises and drags, but overall, any baseball season is better than none at all in this era of labor strife.
First off, let me tell you that I'm not overly shocked at how these pennant (oops, I'm so arcane... I meant DIVISIONAL) races have gone so far. Last summer, when I was more actively writing columns, I said the key to winning your division was simply based on three factors: beating up on your divisional opponents, having a solid winning percentage at home, and having a decent (i.e., .500) winning percentage on the road.
So... look how 2011 is really not much different than 2010. As we approach Labor Day weekend, the final checkpoint of the season heading into the homestretch and the final 30-35 games, let's see how each divisional race is going:
NL East:
Unless we see a total collapse (i.e., vintage Mets of 2007 or 2008), it looks like the Philadelphia Phillies will outlast the Atlanta Braves and likely own the national league's best record. Going into this waterlogged weekend on the east coast, the Phillies were up by 6 games, the exact number of additional wins within the division compared to the Braves. The Phillies were not only a healthy 46-21 at home, but a league-best 37-24 on the road. While the Braves have had a wonderful season so far, playing nearly .600 baseball, the difference seems to be they simply haven't won enough games within the division to stay closer to the Phillies.
NL Central:
It's funny how slow starts mean so little anymore. If you remember back in early April, the Milwaukee Brewers were stumbling out of the gate and giving up a lot of runs in Cincinnati during a opening week. Well, here we are going into September, and after a season that's seen the Reds, St. Louis Cardinals and Pittsburgh Pirates (yes, THOSE Pittsburgh Pirates) all hold first place at different points of the spring and summer, we see the Brewers running away like a freight train, leading the division by 10.5 games over the Cardinals. How have they done it? Hitting, hitting and more hitting... and some good pitching too. After sweeping their weekend series with the Cubs, the Brewers are a league-best 41-21 within the division and a majors-best 50-16 at home, enough to compensate for a 31-38 road record.
NL West:
Really the only division up for grabs in the national league, the Arizona Diamondbacks lead the defending World Series champ San Francisco Giants by 4 games. The Giants have a slightly better record within the division, but the Diamondbacks play better than .500 on the road, so there's really not much difference between how either team has played to this point. These two teams still have 6 games left against each other (3 in San Francisco Labor Day weekend, 3 in Phoenix September 23-25). It may simply boil down to which team is healthier and playing better.
AL East:
Yankees-Red Sox. Red-Sox-Yankees. Like any of us should care or have sympathy for whichever team fails to win the division? All summer long it's been a foregone conclusion that these teams would have the top record and wild card spot, and going into September we see nothing's changed. It's amazing how the horrid April start of 0-6 and 2-10 have faded away for the Red Sox, owners of the league's best record, albeit by 1.5 games over the Yankees. The only significant difference between both teams so far is that Boston's 31-15 within the division while the Yankees are 25-23, and even with that much difference against The Rays, Jays and Orioles, this divisional margin is the major's smallest.
AL Central:
Was it only springtime when the Cleveland Indians were playing .650 baseball and sitting on top of the division by almost a double-digit lead? The summer heat and reality caught up to the Indians, who are now battling to stay at or above .500 while they and the Chicago White Sox fight to stay within 5 games of the Detroit Tigers. The Tigers have clearly overtaken this division and shown they are the best team. They're the only team playing above .500 within the division (32-20), and they're the only team to be above .500 at home and on the road. The one doubt folks may have about the Tigers is that while Cy Young frontrunner Justin Verlander is 20-5, the rest of the Tigers pitching staff is below .500. Can the starting rotation offer enough beyond Verlander to help wrap up the division and get the Tigers deep into the October post-season? Time will tell.
AL West:
At one point it looked like the defending AL champ Texas Rangers were going to run away with the division, but now the Los Angeles Angels have gotten to within 3 games even with their starting rotation taxed during an oppressively hot weekend in Arlington last week. The key difference between these teams seems to be Texas' 27-14 record within the division, while the Angels struggle to stay better than .500 against the Rangers, Oakland A's and Seattle Mariners. In years past, the Rangers used to run out of gas while their pitchers melted during the brutally hot Texas summer. Now it appears to be the Angels who struggle to maintain stamina for the stretch run, resorting to Pedialyte instead of Gatorade during this past weekend series in Arlington.
Other observations of the season:
Have we seen a few no-hitters? Sure have, and we may very well see one or more before September is done. Just like last year, we've seen no-hitters, near no-nos, and plenty of complete-game shutouts. For the second year in a row, it looks like pitchers can hold their own against hitters.
Have we seen our share of explosive offense? Sure, just look at the Yankees hitting three grand slams last week in a 22-9 win over the A's. Toronto's Juan Bautista has shown that last year wasn't a fluke for home run production. Batting averages may be a bit down compared to years past. Jose Reyes has spent two stints on the 15-day Disabled List for the Mets and STILL leads the NL with a .336 batting average.
Have we seen a few quirky things? Sure, look to Atlanta second baseman Dan Uggla, he of a recent 30-game hitting streak that raised his batting average from .173 to .230.
Have we seen milestones? How about Mets reliever Jason Isringhauser reaching 300 career saves? How about Yankees shortstop Derek Jeter reaching 3,000 career hits and improving his average from below .260 to above .290 AFTER getting hit number 3,000 out of the way? How about Twins designated hitter Jim Thome (now recently traded to the Indians) reaching 600 career homers, only the seventh person to do so during the past 100 years?
Have we seen passings and losses to bring sadness to the game? MLB mourns the deaths of former greats like Harmon Killebrew and the recent death of one baseball's nice guys, former Orioles pitcher and general manager Mike Flannigan. Brian Stowe still fights for his life in a San Francisco hospital after being beaten into a coma on opening day at Dodger Stadium, and the Texas Rangers organization is still dealing with the tragic accidental death of a local firefighter, Shannon Stone, who fell over a railing, 20 feet to his death, while trying to catch a wayward baseball for his six-year-old son.
But like every season, baseball also gives us a sense of renewal and hope. For the first time since 1992, the Pirates may actually end up with a .500 or better season, giving fans in the Steel City a reason to return to PNC Ballpark all summer long. All summer long, fans in rust belt cities like Detroit and Cleveland have good reason to come to their ballparks and cheer on their teams. Even in places like Minneapolis, where the Twins are suffering through a disappointing and injury-riddled season, fans routinely come to Target Field to watch a team stuck around 20 games under .500. This past weekend, the Twins hosted the Tigers, trailing Detroit by 17 games. Average attendance for each game? 39,5000 fans. Even in a down year, fans still come to watch their team. For the first time in many years, baseball fans in the mid-west and smaller-market cities feel encouraged to come watch their teams in person, no matter where these teams are in the August standings.
Who knows how the rest of this season will play out, and who will ultimately meet up for the Fall Classic, but if September and October live up to the various thrills and surprises we've seen between April and August, it looks like real baseball fans might go into the long cold winter with a big enough smile to sustain until spring training.
