Let me congratulate the Pittsburgh Steelers and Green Bay Packers for representing the AFC and NFC, respectively, in Super Bowl XLV. Both teams won hard-fought conference title games. Both teams outlasted their opponents and held on when they needed to in the closing minutes of their games. Both teams are talented, play bruising defense, and can move the ball by ground or air. It should be a fun game February 6 in Dallas. Still two weeks from kick-off, it’s a toss-up in my mind who will win, but rest assured, points will be at a premium, so don’t be surprised by a 10-7 contest.
But I’m not here today to write about the teams who will play in Super Bowl XLV. I’m here to write about one team we won’t see in Dallas, the New York Jets, who fell short 24-19 at Heinz Field Sunday evening. I’m also here to write about another team of an era long ago, a team many tend to think about when we look at Rex Ryan’s Jets, the 1967-1977 Oakland Raiders.
At first glance, most folks think Ryan’s Jets are distant cousins of those Raiders teams, constructed by General Manager Al Davis and coached by John Rauch (1967-1968) then John Madden (1969-1977). Remember those Raiders? They shot their mouths off at will, hit opponents hard (perhaps even dirty), and the roster seemed like a collection of outlaws, misfits and cast-offs. During an eleven-year stretch, the Silver-and-Black Pride-and-Poise Boys went 119-28-7, appeared in ten postseasons, won nine AFL-AFC Western Division crowns, and played in nine AFL-AFC championship games. Commitment to Excellence was their motto, and boy, did they excel.
But a funny thing happened on the way to excellence during those eleven years. The Raiders post-season record was a mere 11-9, and they lost seven of those nine AFL-AFC championship games. You see, Commitment to Excellence may have been the motto in the San Francisco Bay area, but the rest of professional football knew the Raiders as “Next Year’s Champions.”
Now, there’s nothing exactly wrong with the moniker “Next Year’s Champions.” After all, the Brooklyn Dodgers wore that moniker well during the 1940s and 1950s, forever being the Yankees’ foils until ‘Dem Bums finally won their first world series in 1955. If it was good enough for Duke Snider, Pee Wee Reese, Jackie Robinson, Gil Hodges and Roy Campanella, it was good enough for Erasmus High School alum Al Davis and his “Raidahs” -- Gene Upshaw, Art Shell, Jim Otto and Fred Biletnikoff. But while the Brooklyn Dodgers multiple heartbreaks against the Yankees almost seemed poetic and romantic, the Raiders championship game losses earned a rueful reputation of “can’t winning the big one.”
It all started with the 1967 AFL championship game, the Raiders beating the old Houston Oilers 40-7. Afterwards, infamous defensive lineman “Big Bad” Ben Davidson declared, King Kong and ten gorillas couldn’t beat us! Well, Davidson and company earned a trip to Miami and Super Bowl II against Vince Lombardi’s Packers and were roundly whipped, 33-14.
From 1968 to 1975, the Raiders made the playoffs seven out of eight seasons (they missed the playoffs in 1971). Each post-season ended as follows:
1968: Lost AFL championship game to the Jets, 27-23 (Jets won Super Bowl III)
1969: Lost AFL championship game to the Kansas City Chiefs, 17-7 (Chiefs won Super Bowl IV)
1970: Lost AFC championship game to the old Baltimore Colts, 27-17 (Colts won Super Bowl V)
1972: Lost AFC divisional game to the Steelers, 13-7 (Steelers lost AFC title game to Miami Dolphins)
1973: Lost AFC championship game to the Dolphins, 27-10 (Dolphins won Super Bowl VIII)
1974: Lost AFC championship game to the Steelers, 24-13 (Steelers won Super Bowl IX)
1975: Lost AFC championship game to the Steelers, 16-10 (Steelers won Super Bowl X)
Oh the pain. Oh the wounded pride. Seven post-season exits, six championship game losses, two separate three-peats (and not the good ones).
Along came 1976. The Raiders went 13-1-0, winning yet another AFC West crown, survived a divisional playoff game they should’ve lost, beating the New England Patriots, 24-21 (avenging their only regular season loss, 48-17, in Foxborough), and hosting their post-season albatross, the Pittsburgh Steelers. The defending two-time champions were 10-4-0, and had perhaps the greatest defensive season of all time, giving up only 138 total points, a mind-boggling TWENTY-EIGHT during the final nine regular season games. After a 1-4-0 start, the Steelers closed the regular season with a nine-game winning streak that included FIVE shutouts and beating opponents by a composite score of 234-28!
The Steelers were fresh off a 40-14 pasting of the Baltimore Colts, but unfortunately lost both starting running backs, Franco Harris and Rocky Bleier, to injuries. Without their two thousand-yard rushers (Harris and Bleier combined for 2,164 yards and 19 TDs), the Steelers offense could not compete with the Raiders. Lo and behold, the Raiders finally returned to the Super Bowl, beating the Steelers 24-7. Two weeks later, the Raiders won Super Bowl XI, defeating the Minnesota Vikings 32-14 (FYI: that was the Vikings’ fourth Super Bowl loss, but that’s for another story).
And the Raiders lived happily ever after, right? Well, the Raiders returned to form in 1977, losing another AFC championship, 20-17 to the Denver Broncos, then missed the playoffs in 1978 and 1979. But the Raiders returned to the Super Bowl after the 1980 and 1983 seasons, winning two more titles and reinforcing their legend (FYI: The Raiders haven’t won a Super Bowl since, and haven’t had a winning season since losing Super Bowl XXXVII after the 2002 season).
Are you starting to see some resemblance to Rex Ryan’s Jets?
Why did the Jets lose last night? Well, as was the case for the 1967-1977 Raiders, the other team was more physical at the line of scrimmage, ran the ball better, made fewer mistakes, made key plays when they needed to, perhaps had more lucky breaks... Oh, and the other team perhaps was simply better.
Were the Jets emotionally flat last night after beating the Colts and Patriots on the road during the first two rounds? I don’t necessarily think so. Just looking at the Steelers first offensive drive — 15 plays, 66 yards, 7 first downs, 9:06 time of possession — it was clear the Jets didn’t have a solution yet for running back Rashard Mendenhall, who ran roughshod through arm tackles just like he did back in week 15. Despite winning that week 15 game 22-17, Rex Ryan admitted his defense didn’t play as well as he wanted. Mendenhall rushed for 99 yards back then; he rushed for 95 yards in the first half alone last night. Rex Ryan may have finally figured out a way to beat Peyton Manning and Tom Brady, but he needed extended time for Mendenhall.
With Mendenhall able to run, the Steelers built a 24-3 halftime lead, outgaining the Jets in total yardage, 231-50. More evident of which team controlled the line of scrimmage was the Steelers defense held the Jets to ONE yard rushing. Granted, many thought the 106 yards the Jets rushed for in week 15 was somewhat of a fluke, but ONE yard? Was the Steelers rush defense that good?
In the second half, a completely different Jets defense came out of the locker room, holding Mendenhall to 26 yards. In fact, it almost seemed like the teams switched uniforms — the Jets outscored the Steelers 16-0, and outgained them 239-56. The Jets even rushed for 69 yards, showing they were indeed capable of running on the Steelers defense. Unfortunately for the Jets, the Steelers offense made the last two key plays for first downs — a second-and-twelve completion from Ben Roethlisberger to tight end Heath Miller, and a third-and-six completion to rookie receiver Antonio Brown — and a valiant Jets comeback was snuffed out.
Could the Jets come all the way back from a 24-0 hole and win the biggest comeback in conference championship history? If the Jets defense prevented one of those last two first downs, there was hope, even if with less than a minute left, no timeouts, and possibly the length of the field to go for a winning touchdown. Perhaps Rex Ryan should’ve opted for the onside kickoff when it was 24-19 and three minutes left. Perhaps he should’ve rolled the dice against a gassed Steelers defense instead of his own defense running on fumes.
When the clock ran down, the Steelers outlasted the Jets more than beat them. The Jets offense certainly had the Steelers defense on the ropes. But 24-0 proved too much of a hole to climb out of. The Steelers DID beat the Jets last night before halftime; the Steelers simply never got to put the final stake in Gang Green’s heart until the bitter end.
What does this tell us about Rex Ryan and his merry band of Jets? Well, just as they made off-season moves to shore up the defense for a playoff battle against Peyton Manning and Tom Brady, they’ll need to make a few more moves in order to handle running backs like Rashard Mendenhall better. They could use a real pass rushing defensive lineman. The secondary, outside of Darrelle Revis, needs to play more consistently. Offensively, they may need to tinker with the running game, diversify it beyond Shonn Greene and L’Danian Tomlinson (i.e., let’s see more Joe McKnight) and get more depth on the offensive line. Maybe they need to upgrade the kicking game.
Of course, perhaps it might help to win the AFC East and guarantee a home playoff game. If the Jets beat the Patriots back in week 13, rather than get blown out 45-3, would it have made a difference? The Patriots might still have won the division at 13-3. The Jets needed to be better than 11-5. They needed to avoid laying eggs at home against the Ravens (week 1), Packers (week 8) and Dolphins (week 14). If the Jets managed to score a single touchdown in each game, they could’ve been 14-2, even with getting their heads handed to them in Foxborough in week 13.
But the team is loaded with talent, especially at the skill positions, not to mention a steadily maturing franchise quarterback. Unlike championship-caliber teams with short shelf lives (e.g., the 1986-1989 Cleveland Browns), the Jets are built to be among the top 3-4 teams in the AFC for at least the next 4-5 years. And despite what some members of the fan base think, the Jets have a very solid and smart coaching staff. Would it be nice if Rex Ryan and company did less yakking? Sure, but it’s hard to argue with two straight AFC title game appearances, something no other Jets team has ever done — not under Weeb Ewbank, Walt Michaels, Joe Walton, Bill Parcells, or Herman Edwards, the only other head coaches to produce consecutive winning seasons.
Sure, it’s a little silly for Ryan in his post-game press conference to tell folks they “have no right” to criticize the Jets, but he was right on the money on one thing: they will be back next year to chase a Super Bowl, and the next year, and the next year, and for every year Rex Ryan serves as head coach. You have to give him and the team credit for setting their goal, talking about it ad nauseum, and never backing down. Just the way they came back from 24-0, kept fighting until the end, and kept the outcome in doubt until the Roethlisberger to Brown completion, you see a team driven, a team on a mission, a team thoroughly committed to not going away.
Do I guarantee we’ll see the Jets in Super Bowl XLVI, or XLVII or XLVIII? No, but I like their chances, better than I like Baltimore’s with Joe Flacco at quarterback, or San Diego’s with A.J. Smith as general manager, or the Colts’ with limited defensive depth. Are the Chiefs more than a one-year wonder? Are the Raiders really on the upswing? Are the Titans, Jaguars and Dolphins above mediocrity? Will we honestly hear from the Bengals, Browns, Bills, Broncos or Texans anytime soon?
The Patriots and Steelers are both built to remain a perpetual part of the discussion. The Patriots began this millennium winning three Super Bowl titles in a four-year period. The Steelers are in position to win their third in a five-year span. The Jets are also part of the discussion.
For Jets fans who can’t take the disappointment of two straight title game exits, I suggest you study your history, and not just the history of “Same old Jets.” Take a look at teams who had periods of falling short and see how things eventually paid off — the 1967-1977 Raiders, the 1966-1983 Cowboys, the 1971-1992 Redskins, even the 1990-1994 49ers or 1992-1998 Packers. Lots of teams had a few years of title game heartbreak before finally winning it all. The Jets don’t even crack the top-5 on the list for perseverance. So crawl out of your dark closets, look out at the sunny sky, and look forward to next season. I’ll guarantee you Rex Ryan already is.
Monday, January 24, 2011
Wednesday, January 12, 2011
It’s January, the month for football gluttony -- Sports Thoughts for January 13, 2011
Now that we’re finally done with the BCS National Championship Game, we can reflect back on the 2010 college football season and decide if we got our money’s worth. I, for one, feel more and more gypped with each season in this world of the BCS system. No matter what anyone says, Monday night’s Auburn-Oregon game was not worth the wait. Sometimes 22-19 is a nip-and-tuck thriller. Sometimes 22-19 is a memorable defensive battle. Sometimes 22-19 goes down as one for the ages. Sometimes 22-19 goes in my book as a big yawn. In a way, why should we be surprised by this performance from two rusty teams who hadn’t played in approximately six weeks. Throughout the game, I kept wondering three things:
(1) What possessed the Vegas odds-makers to maintain the over-under at 70 points for this game?
(2) Why are the Oregon players wearing yellow police tape on their ankles and feet?
(3) Do SEC teams ever lose in this stupid game?
Perhaps I’ve become too jaded and grouchy about football bowl games. I’m not really in favor of a college football playoff system, and I’m definitely not in favor of this current set-up. Yes, I’m your standard curmudgeon, pining for the old days when conference champions played in their corresponding fruit or foliage bowl, on their traditional television networks, and we didn’t have a zillion silly bowl games to placate mediocre football programs. Give me a New Years Day of the Cotton, Rose and Orange Bowls on CBS, ABC and NBC, where I can watch Big Ten and Pac Ten teams play where they naturally belong. When you set up a cockamamie system where TCU plays in Pasadena rather than Dallas, and we’re forced to sit in front of ESPN for nearly 100 hours of games that include such classics as the GoDaddy.com Bowl, you’re upsetting the natural order of things, by golly.
Last, if we’re going to maintain this silly system of 32 bowl games to reward more than a dozen 6-6 teams, bowl organizers need to find more appropriate corporate sponsors. Granted, this is from the perspective of a middle-aged man, but instead of such names like the Beef ‘O’ Brady’s St. Petersburg Bowl and the Little Caesar’s Pizza Bowl, let’s be more practical and offer a Ben-Gay Bowl or Alka-Seltzer Bowl. Tostitos BCS National Championship Bowl? Ha! By the time we get through 24 days of football games and junk food, we’d be better served by Gas-X. I know I would.
So folks are calling Andrew Luck stupid for deciding to return to Stanford for his junior year of football and complete his degree in architectural design? Sure... Sticking around to complete a degree, on the university’s dime — and a pretty prestigious university at that -- rather than toss away a sure thing for a potential pot of gold and a few years of getting his head kicked in as quarterback for the Carolina Panthers, is stupid. Please, please... Some football fans really crack me up.
And to all of those football fans eager to have Andrew Luck’s head examined... Did any of you once hear ESPN mention Cam Newton’s academic major at Auburn during the BCS Title Game? Yeah, I didn’t think so. Far be it from me to call out hypocrisy, but...
Are you all ready for this weekend’s NFL divisional playoffs? I know I am. If you do an archive search of my Twitter account, you will see that on January 5, I predicted to Warren Sapp of the NFL Network and Showtime Sports that the Seahawks, Jets, Chiefs and Packers would win their wild-card round games. That makes me 3-1 so far for the post-season (thanks for nothing, Kansas City). Folks call the Seahawks’ 41-36 win over the Saints an upset for the ages, but I don’t. New Orleans on the road is a bad bet for the playoffs; the Saints are now 0-4 in their history. Seattle in January is cold and damp, hardly the kind of climate the Saints enjoy in the Superdome, and let’s face it... The Saints defense hasn’t played like it did in 2009 all season long. You usually don’t have the good fortune of 45 takeaways and 7 touchdowns two seasons in a row. Ask the Arizona Cardinals defense how 2009 compared to their super bowl season of 2008. Having to play in Seattle with a team that wasn’t running on all cylinders was the perfect storm for the Saints, and the result was 41-36 and a long winter home.
Then again, the Saints didn’t just hand it over to the Seahawks. Pete Carroll’s team needed to play way above the level of their 7-9 regular season record. Now the Seahawks have hope and a puncher’s chance in Chicago on Sunday afternoon. In theory, the Bears should be able to handle the Seahawks at Soldier Field. In theory, the Seahawks should run out of pixie dust after the long flight to Chicago. But another eerie perfect storm may be waiting for the Bears. After all, the Seahawks came to Soldier Field and beat the Bears 23-20 back in week 6. Who knows which Jay Cutler will show up at quarterback for the Bears? Is he due for one of his ill-timed implosions? Perhaps he is, but something tells me the Bears should be able to overcome it. Can Matthew Hasselbeck duplicate his passing performance (22-35, 272 yards, 4 TDs)? The Bears defense isn’t necessarily the Monsters of the Midway. The Jets scored 34 against them. The Patriots scored 36. Sunday’s game could be the highest scoring of all four playoff matchups.
One more tidbit to think about... Has anyone noticed Seattle’s Brandon Stokley continues to be a big-game receiver year after year after year? No matter the season or which uniform he’s wearing, if there’s a game-changing touchdown catch involved, you somehow know Stokley is on the receiving end.
Who do I think the Bears will meet for the NFC title game next week? I picked the Green Bay Packers back in September, and I see no reason to backtrack on that prediction now. Of all the remaining teams in the NFC pool, the Packers have the most consistent (albeit cheating) defense and seem to be peaking at the right time. The Bears and Falcons never really faced adversity all season long. The Packers lost their running game in the first week of the season, held together through a tough November stretch, then convincingly beat the Giants, Bears and Eagles over the past three weeks. Add in the unexpected contributions of running back James Starks (123 yards rushing vs Philadelphia), and the Packers offense is more than quarterback Aaron Rodgers. Yes, the Falcons are 20-2 at home with Matt Ryan at quarterback, but their 20-17 last-minute win over the Packers November 28 told me more about how tough the Packers are than how dominant the Falcons are. Saturday night’s game will be close, but there’s a good reason why Vegas odds-makers have the Packers as the favorites.
My NFC predictions?
Packers 24, Falcons 20
Bears 31, Seahawks 26
This brings us to the AFC and the familiarity and contempt associated with divisional rivalries. Saturday afternoon gives us the rubber match between the Baltimore Ravens and the Pittsburgh Steelers. On October 3, the Ravens beat the Steelers in Pittsburgh, 17-14, and on December 5, the Steelers returned the favor in Baltimore, 13-10. It doesn’t take a genius to figure out that three points is usually the margin that separates these two teams, no matter where they play. In fact, six of the past seven games between these teams have been decided by four points or less.
Now that we know the margin of victory, which team wins at Heinz Field?
Consider this: Steelers quarterback Ben Roethlisberger is 8-2 in his career against the Ravens, missed their October 3 meeting due to league suspension, and played with a broken foot (and broke his nose) during the December 5 rematch. Somehow Big Ben finds a way to make the plays needed to win, while Ravens quarterback Joe Flacco finds a way to make a big mistake down the stretch and give the Steelers one extra chance.
Prediction?
Steelers 14, Ravens 12
This finally brings us to the last of this weekend’s playoff games, the Jets against the Patriots at Foxboro’s Gillette Stadium. Talk about two teams that absolutely dislike each other. Talk about a rivalry. Talk about TALK, and TALK, and TALK...
Yes, Gang Green turns up the volume each chance it gets, no matter the day, hour or how many microphones are present. Rex Ryan’s taking on Bill Belichick, Tom Brady, and perhaps the entire state of Massachusetts. The war of words goes back and forth between New York and Boston, some of the rhetoric a little too personal and over the line.
Allow me to summarize and simplify things for you:
Rex Ryan to Patriots coaches, players and fans: Pththththththth!!!!!!!!!!
Bill Belichick to Rex Ryan: Pththththththth!!!!!!!!!!
Rex Ryan to Tom Brady: Pththththththth!!!!!!!!!!
Tom Brady to Rex Ryan: Pththththththth!!!!!!!!!!
Antonio Cormartie to Tom Brady: $@#%&!
Tom Brady to Antonio Cromartie: Pththththththth!!!!!!!!!!
Now let’s discuss football...
Two bits of information are relevant to the discussion:
Week 2 (at Meadowlands): Jets, 28, Patriots 14
Week 13 (at Foxboro): Patriots 45, Jets 3
Of all the playoff games this weekend, the Jets and Patriots are the only matchup between teams where previous games weren’t close contests. Rex Ryan said, “we kicked their ass at home, and they kicked our ass there.” Bill Belichick said, “it’s now 2 of 3, like it should be.” Were the Jets really 14 points better than the Pats in week 2? Were the Pats really 42 points better than the Jets in week 13? Which performance is closest to the reality we’ll see on Sunday?
If we truly believe the week 13 massacre correctly reflects the talent difference between both teams, we should expect the Patriots to win by four touchdowns, but that’s not likely to happen. First, the Jets really weren’t as bad as they showed back in December, and the Pats really aren’t as dominant. Second, the Jets have pride at stake. Third, the law of averages has to catch up with the Patriots, doesn’t it?
Do I have any historical inspiration from a rivalry that’s knotted at 51-51-1 since 1960? Yes, the 1979 season. In week 2, the Jets traveled to Foxboro and lost 56-3. Think about it... 56-3. What took place December 5 wasn’t even the Jets worst loss against the Patriots! In case you’re wondering, the Jets have had their share of ugly losses in Foxboro: 55-21 (1978), 41-7 (1976), and 42-20 (1987).
Well, by week 15, the Jets were 6-8, playing out the string, and hosted an 8-6 Patriots team with slim playoff hopes. The final score at Shea Stadium? Jets 27, Patriots 26. I sat in old Shea that day, two rows behind the Patriots bench. As the final minutes ticked off, a sold-out crowd stood and serenaded the Patriots with “Good-bye playoffs” to the tune of “Goodnight Ladies.” Was that game one for the annals of professional football? Hardly. It was cold, dark, damp and windy that December afternoon, and the game was fairly sloppy, but that one-point Jet win served as some form of redemption 13 weeks after a 53-point debacle.
Why do I bring this game up? In the words of Jets wide receiver Braylon Edwards, “We always knew. ... It’s not even about revenge. That’s regular season. Who cares? Yeah, we got embarrassed, but that’s the regular season. This is the playoffs. ... If we beat them by one point, it’s a win. They can have the 42-point win. We just want a one-point win.”
Do I think the Jets can get their one-point win? Yes, I do. I also think the Jets can win by more, or the Patriots can win in another blow-out. Anything is possible with these two teams, but unlike the Vegas odds-makers, I believe the combination of rivalry, offensive and defensive schemes, pride (and ego), and a trip to the AFC title game will raise the level of play and give us perhaps the tightest and best battle of the weekend.
My prediction?
Jets 24, Patriots 23
Anything’s possible in the NFL playoffs. Hopefully all four games will provide us a great weekend of watching.
(1) What possessed the Vegas odds-makers to maintain the over-under at 70 points for this game?
(2) Why are the Oregon players wearing yellow police tape on their ankles and feet?
(3) Do SEC teams ever lose in this stupid game?
Perhaps I’ve become too jaded and grouchy about football bowl games. I’m not really in favor of a college football playoff system, and I’m definitely not in favor of this current set-up. Yes, I’m your standard curmudgeon, pining for the old days when conference champions played in their corresponding fruit or foliage bowl, on their traditional television networks, and we didn’t have a zillion silly bowl games to placate mediocre football programs. Give me a New Years Day of the Cotton, Rose and Orange Bowls on CBS, ABC and NBC, where I can watch Big Ten and Pac Ten teams play where they naturally belong. When you set up a cockamamie system where TCU plays in Pasadena rather than Dallas, and we’re forced to sit in front of ESPN for nearly 100 hours of games that include such classics as the GoDaddy.com Bowl, you’re upsetting the natural order of things, by golly.
Last, if we’re going to maintain this silly system of 32 bowl games to reward more than a dozen 6-6 teams, bowl organizers need to find more appropriate corporate sponsors. Granted, this is from the perspective of a middle-aged man, but instead of such names like the Beef ‘O’ Brady’s St. Petersburg Bowl and the Little Caesar’s Pizza Bowl, let’s be more practical and offer a Ben-Gay Bowl or Alka-Seltzer Bowl. Tostitos BCS National Championship Bowl? Ha! By the time we get through 24 days of football games and junk food, we’d be better served by Gas-X. I know I would.
So folks are calling Andrew Luck stupid for deciding to return to Stanford for his junior year of football and complete his degree in architectural design? Sure... Sticking around to complete a degree, on the university’s dime — and a pretty prestigious university at that -- rather than toss away a sure thing for a potential pot of gold and a few years of getting his head kicked in as quarterback for the Carolina Panthers, is stupid. Please, please... Some football fans really crack me up.
And to all of those football fans eager to have Andrew Luck’s head examined... Did any of you once hear ESPN mention Cam Newton’s academic major at Auburn during the BCS Title Game? Yeah, I didn’t think so. Far be it from me to call out hypocrisy, but...
Are you all ready for this weekend’s NFL divisional playoffs? I know I am. If you do an archive search of my Twitter account, you will see that on January 5, I predicted to Warren Sapp of the NFL Network and Showtime Sports that the Seahawks, Jets, Chiefs and Packers would win their wild-card round games. That makes me 3-1 so far for the post-season (thanks for nothing, Kansas City). Folks call the Seahawks’ 41-36 win over the Saints an upset for the ages, but I don’t. New Orleans on the road is a bad bet for the playoffs; the Saints are now 0-4 in their history. Seattle in January is cold and damp, hardly the kind of climate the Saints enjoy in the Superdome, and let’s face it... The Saints defense hasn’t played like it did in 2009 all season long. You usually don’t have the good fortune of 45 takeaways and 7 touchdowns two seasons in a row. Ask the Arizona Cardinals defense how 2009 compared to their super bowl season of 2008. Having to play in Seattle with a team that wasn’t running on all cylinders was the perfect storm for the Saints, and the result was 41-36 and a long winter home.
Then again, the Saints didn’t just hand it over to the Seahawks. Pete Carroll’s team needed to play way above the level of their 7-9 regular season record. Now the Seahawks have hope and a puncher’s chance in Chicago on Sunday afternoon. In theory, the Bears should be able to handle the Seahawks at Soldier Field. In theory, the Seahawks should run out of pixie dust after the long flight to Chicago. But another eerie perfect storm may be waiting for the Bears. After all, the Seahawks came to Soldier Field and beat the Bears 23-20 back in week 6. Who knows which Jay Cutler will show up at quarterback for the Bears? Is he due for one of his ill-timed implosions? Perhaps he is, but something tells me the Bears should be able to overcome it. Can Matthew Hasselbeck duplicate his passing performance (22-35, 272 yards, 4 TDs)? The Bears defense isn’t necessarily the Monsters of the Midway. The Jets scored 34 against them. The Patriots scored 36. Sunday’s game could be the highest scoring of all four playoff matchups.
One more tidbit to think about... Has anyone noticed Seattle’s Brandon Stokley continues to be a big-game receiver year after year after year? No matter the season or which uniform he’s wearing, if there’s a game-changing touchdown catch involved, you somehow know Stokley is on the receiving end.
Who do I think the Bears will meet for the NFC title game next week? I picked the Green Bay Packers back in September, and I see no reason to backtrack on that prediction now. Of all the remaining teams in the NFC pool, the Packers have the most consistent (albeit cheating) defense and seem to be peaking at the right time. The Bears and Falcons never really faced adversity all season long. The Packers lost their running game in the first week of the season, held together through a tough November stretch, then convincingly beat the Giants, Bears and Eagles over the past three weeks. Add in the unexpected contributions of running back James Starks (123 yards rushing vs Philadelphia), and the Packers offense is more than quarterback Aaron Rodgers. Yes, the Falcons are 20-2 at home with Matt Ryan at quarterback, but their 20-17 last-minute win over the Packers November 28 told me more about how tough the Packers are than how dominant the Falcons are. Saturday night’s game will be close, but there’s a good reason why Vegas odds-makers have the Packers as the favorites.
My NFC predictions?
Packers 24, Falcons 20
Bears 31, Seahawks 26
This brings us to the AFC and the familiarity and contempt associated with divisional rivalries. Saturday afternoon gives us the rubber match between the Baltimore Ravens and the Pittsburgh Steelers. On October 3, the Ravens beat the Steelers in Pittsburgh, 17-14, and on December 5, the Steelers returned the favor in Baltimore, 13-10. It doesn’t take a genius to figure out that three points is usually the margin that separates these two teams, no matter where they play. In fact, six of the past seven games between these teams have been decided by four points or less.
Now that we know the margin of victory, which team wins at Heinz Field?
Consider this: Steelers quarterback Ben Roethlisberger is 8-2 in his career against the Ravens, missed their October 3 meeting due to league suspension, and played with a broken foot (and broke his nose) during the December 5 rematch. Somehow Big Ben finds a way to make the plays needed to win, while Ravens quarterback Joe Flacco finds a way to make a big mistake down the stretch and give the Steelers one extra chance.
Prediction?
Steelers 14, Ravens 12
This finally brings us to the last of this weekend’s playoff games, the Jets against the Patriots at Foxboro’s Gillette Stadium. Talk about two teams that absolutely dislike each other. Talk about a rivalry. Talk about TALK, and TALK, and TALK...
Yes, Gang Green turns up the volume each chance it gets, no matter the day, hour or how many microphones are present. Rex Ryan’s taking on Bill Belichick, Tom Brady, and perhaps the entire state of Massachusetts. The war of words goes back and forth between New York and Boston, some of the rhetoric a little too personal and over the line.
Allow me to summarize and simplify things for you:
Rex Ryan to Patriots coaches, players and fans: Pththththththth!!!!!!!!!!
Bill Belichick to Rex Ryan: Pththththththth!!!!!!!!!!
Rex Ryan to Tom Brady: Pththththththth!!!!!!!!!!
Tom Brady to Rex Ryan: Pththththththth!!!!!!!!!!
Antonio Cormartie to Tom Brady: $@#%&!
Tom Brady to Antonio Cromartie: Pththththththth!!!!!!!!!!
Now let’s discuss football...
Two bits of information are relevant to the discussion:
Week 2 (at Meadowlands): Jets, 28, Patriots 14
Week 13 (at Foxboro): Patriots 45, Jets 3
Of all the playoff games this weekend, the Jets and Patriots are the only matchup between teams where previous games weren’t close contests. Rex Ryan said, “we kicked their ass at home, and they kicked our ass there.” Bill Belichick said, “it’s now 2 of 3, like it should be.” Were the Jets really 14 points better than the Pats in week 2? Were the Pats really 42 points better than the Jets in week 13? Which performance is closest to the reality we’ll see on Sunday?
If we truly believe the week 13 massacre correctly reflects the talent difference between both teams, we should expect the Patriots to win by four touchdowns, but that’s not likely to happen. First, the Jets really weren’t as bad as they showed back in December, and the Pats really aren’t as dominant. Second, the Jets have pride at stake. Third, the law of averages has to catch up with the Patriots, doesn’t it?
Do I have any historical inspiration from a rivalry that’s knotted at 51-51-1 since 1960? Yes, the 1979 season. In week 2, the Jets traveled to Foxboro and lost 56-3. Think about it... 56-3. What took place December 5 wasn’t even the Jets worst loss against the Patriots! In case you’re wondering, the Jets have had their share of ugly losses in Foxboro: 55-21 (1978), 41-7 (1976), and 42-20 (1987).
Well, by week 15, the Jets were 6-8, playing out the string, and hosted an 8-6 Patriots team with slim playoff hopes. The final score at Shea Stadium? Jets 27, Patriots 26. I sat in old Shea that day, two rows behind the Patriots bench. As the final minutes ticked off, a sold-out crowd stood and serenaded the Patriots with “Good-bye playoffs” to the tune of “Goodnight Ladies.” Was that game one for the annals of professional football? Hardly. It was cold, dark, damp and windy that December afternoon, and the game was fairly sloppy, but that one-point Jet win served as some form of redemption 13 weeks after a 53-point debacle.
Why do I bring this game up? In the words of Jets wide receiver Braylon Edwards, “We always knew. ... It’s not even about revenge. That’s regular season. Who cares? Yeah, we got embarrassed, but that’s the regular season. This is the playoffs. ... If we beat them by one point, it’s a win. They can have the 42-point win. We just want a one-point win.”
Do I think the Jets can get their one-point win? Yes, I do. I also think the Jets can win by more, or the Patriots can win in another blow-out. Anything is possible with these two teams, but unlike the Vegas odds-makers, I believe the combination of rivalry, offensive and defensive schemes, pride (and ego), and a trip to the AFC title game will raise the level of play and give us perhaps the tightest and best battle of the weekend.
My prediction?
Jets 24, Patriots 23
Anything’s possible in the NFL playoffs. Hopefully all four games will provide us a great weekend of watching.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)