As Rangers closer Neftali Feliz struck out Alex Rodriguez with an 83-mph change-up for the final out of the ALCS, clinching game 6 in a 6-1 win, I can't help but wax nostalgic about past sports years as the defending champion Yankees season ends...
The year was 1980 and the NFL season was underway. For the previous two seasons, the Pittsburgh Steelers were kings and Bum Phillips' Houston Oilers were AFC runner-ups, or more specifically the pesky speedbump en route to Super Bowls XIII and XIV. As the 1980 season began, ol' Bum made the following proclamation: Two years ago we knocked on the door. Last year we pounded on the door. This year we're gonna kick the door down.
A funny thing happened on the way towards the AFC playoffs. The defending two-time champion Steelers slipped to 9-7. The Oilers? Again, they finished 11-5 and earned a wild card berth. Why? The central division's afterthought, the Cleveland Browns also finished 11-5 and sneaked by with the division title on the basis of tie-breakers.
After clinching the divisional title, Browns head coach Sam Rutigliano offered the most classic postgame locker room line: Bum Phillips kicked in the wrong door!
Bum's Oilers never made it to a super bowl. In fact, he was fired by the Oilers after a dismal 1981 season.
Here we are in 2010, and MLB's postseason afterthought, the Texas Rangers, have kicked in a door to their very first world series in their 39th season of existence, after 11 previous seasons of failure as the second coming of the Washington Senators (1961-1971). They outlasted both AL favorites coming into these playoffs - the Rays in five and the Yankees in six. Most of us expected the road to the World Series to go through either Tropicana Field or Yankee Stadium. Maybe Target Field...
Who would've expected such a seismic detour from St. Petersburg and New York en route to the Ballpark at Arlington, a place the Rangers were 0 for every home playoff game prior to last week?
Admit it... just like me, did any of you honestly think we'd see the Rangers come out of the American League playoffs and be in this year's World Series? Most folks thought the smart money was on the Yankees or Rays, or perhaps the Twins. But the Rangers? The all-hit, no-pitch Rangers? The who else is in that rotation besides Cliff Lee Rangers? The do they have a bullpen? Rangers? The weren't these guys bankrupt? Rangers?
Yes, those Rangers. The Rangers, who coasted since the All-Star break after building a big enough lead over the punchless Angels and A's, who evolved from Chapter 11 under owner Tom Hicks to solvent and viable under Nolan Ryan and Chuck Greenberg, and who managed to acquire Cliff Lee from Seattle and Benji Molina before the July 31 trading deadline.
These Rangers managed to find just enough pitching to go with a lineup that slapped the Yankees silly, outscoring the defending world champs 38-19, out-homering them 9-6, and out-stealing them 9-2. The Rangers beat the Yankees with small ball and the big hits. And the timely hits!
The Rangers hit nearly .500 with runners in scoring position; the Yankees couldn't buy a key hit. The Rangers had more than a dozen hits with two strikes; the Yankees weren't so fortunate. The Rangers scored runs with two outs; the Yankees couldn't cash in consistently in tight spots. The Rangers have plenty of hitters. The Yankees are synonymous with hitting. The Yankees aren't called the Bronx Bombers for nothing. They're supposed to out-slug opponents into submission. The Rangers essentially out-Yankeed the Yankees.
Even tonight, Rangers starter Colby Lewis bent but didn't break during the first five innings of what was then a 1-1 tie, the Yankees run courtesy of a yes-it-hit-him no-call wild pitch to Nick Swisher with A-Rod on third. Once the Rangers put four runs on the board during the bottom of the fifth- three off starter Phil Hughes, one off David Robertson via Nelson Cruz's two-out, two-run home run - Lewis got tougher, going eight solid innings (3 hits, 3 walks, 1 earned run, 7 strikeouts) before yielding the ninth to Feliz.
The Yankees, who scored an impressive game 1 comeback win last week, then managed a gutty game 5 win behind laboring starter C.C. Sabathia, had nothing tonight as their faithful supporters all but guaranteed we'd be watching a game 7 epic battle between Cliff Lee and Andy Pettitte. Colby Lewis made sure there'd be no need for game 7, as did the bats of Cruz and Vladmir Guerrero. Manager Ron Washington doesn't have to answer questions about choking away golden opportunities to put the mighty Yankees away, much less questions about whether he should've started Lee in game 2 instead of game 3. Washington was spared the real tough questions by brilliant pitching and timely hitting. Instead, it's Joe Girardi on the hot spot to answer tough questions about his managerial IQ for starting A.J. Burnett in game 4, rather than Sabathia, possibly having Pettitte available to start tonight and Sabathia tomorrow if there was a tomorrow.
Girardi suddenly looks like a micromanaging dunce one year after guiding the Yankees to their 27th World Series title. In case you forgot, last year's managerial dunce cap went to Charlie Manuel for refusing to work with a three-man rotation and keeping one of his pitching liabilities as far away from the mound during game 4. Manuel may still wear the dunce cap after tomorrow if his Phillies can't complete a 3 games to 1 comeback against San Francisco.
Tonight Ron Washington looks like a genius. Of course he does, not only getting the maximum out of his overmatched pitching staff but enjoying the luxury of winning all four ALCS games by at least five runs. When you're outscoring the opposition by a 2-to-1 ratio, unless you're the 1960 Yankees (who lost in seven games to the Bill Mazeroski Pirates), you should win a seven-game series, hopefully in less than seven games.
Now it's a matter of whether the Rangers open the World Series in San Francisco or Philadelphia Wednesday night. Either way, we know Cliff Lee will be on the mound for game 1. Whether Lee is available for two or three starts remains to be seen. As solid as he's been in the post-season, it's already established the lefty doesn't like to pitch on short rest and, in fact, refuses to take the ball. Given he's a free agent this winter, Lee may want to give serious thought as to how much he wants to be the man, the stopper, the ultimate ace on a team's pitching staff, when the chips on pushed into the middle of the table. Yes, there will be at least one team who will overbid for his services, but should all buyers beware based on how Lee makes himself available on the grandest stage of the MLB season. But that's a debate for December, not October.
Tonight we smile and congratulate the Texas Rangers on their very first American League pennant, Ron Washington for pressing the right buttons through two playoff series, Josh Hamilton for winning the ALCS MVP, and all the other players - Lewis, Feliz, Molina, Guerrero, Cruz, Mitch Moreland, Elvis Andrus, Derek Holland, and Michael Young - who made tremendous contributions to take this team from afterthought to champion. The Yankees may perpetually be the best team money could buy, but sometimes the best surprises come from the going out of business collection.
Friday, October 22, 2010
Monday, October 18, 2010
Use your head… DON’T use your head! -- Sports thoughts for October 18, 2010
As you well know, my spine is an example of what playing football can eventually do to you. As much as I love football, I perpetually cringe at the sight of helmet-to-helmet collisions and the growing list of players injured by such hits. This past weekend provides us yet a few more examples of the unpleasant and frightening consequences of using one’s helmet as the contact point when you attempt to tackle an opposing player.
Let’s begin in my own neighborhood of East Rutherford, New Jersey, and the new Meadowlands Stadium. On Saturday, Rutgers University played Army. During the fourth quarter, Rutgers defensive tackle Eric LeGrand, a 275-pound junior, attempted tackling the Army kick returner, 180-pound sophomore Malcolm Brown. LeGrand’s tackling technique? It started by lowering his helmet into Brown’s torso. The result? LeGrand injured his cervical spine and he’s currently paralyzed from the neck down after vertebral stabilizing surgery at Hackensack University Medical Center (HUMC). It remains to be seen how long it will be before LeGrand recovers and regains use of his arms and legs since his spinal cord apparently wasn’t severed.
What makes LeGrand’s injury ironic is that it occurred mere minutes after Rutgers tied the game at 17-all on a touchdown drive sustained when Army linebacker Steve Erzinger inflicted a helmet-to-helmet hit on Rutgers quarterback Chas Dodd. Erzinger’s personal foul negated a potential game clinching interception by Army defensive back Donovan Travis. As violent collisions obey the laws of motion as randomly as quantum mechanics, neither Erzinger nor Dodd suffered injury; LeGrand lays in a hospital bed wondering about his life.
As if those collisions weren’t enough for the Meadowlands, Detroit Lions special teamer Zack Follett collided head-on with New York Giants rookie defensive lineman Jason Paul-Pierre during a fourth quarter kickoff on Sunday. Lying on the stadium turf, Follett fortunately had feeling in his extremities, even though he required immobilization onto a backboard and being taken to HUMC, where tests determined no vertebral damage. After overnight observation, Follett was discharged today from HUMC. Paul-Pierre apparently suffered no injury from the collision.
Let’s travel a little south down I-95 to Philadelphia’s Lincoln Financial Field. During the second quarter of Sunday’s game between the Eagles and Atlanta Falcons, Eagles wide receiver DeSean Jackson collided helmet-to-helmet with Falcons cornerback Dunta Robinson. Although both players lay on the turf for several minutes afterwards, both had to be helped off the field. Neither returned to the game afterwards, each suffering a head injury.
A question arose after the game about Robinson being guilty of headhunting in light of Jackson scoring two touchdowns during the first quarter of a 31-17 Eagles win (the Eagles at one time led 21-0). Robinson was penalized for hitting a defenseless receiver.
Let’s travel north to Foxborough, Massachusetts and Gillette Stadium. During the second quarter of their 23-20 win over the Baltimore Ravens on Sunday, New England Patriots safety Brandon Meriweather unloaded on Ravens tight end Todd Heap in yet another helmet-to-helmet collision. Although both Heap and Meriweather were okay afterwards, Meriweather was flagged for his helmet-first launch. Although Meriweather apologized for his illegal hit, he made clear that his aggressive style of play would not be altered.
The second quarter was also dangerous at Pittsburgh’s Heinz Field, as Steelers linebacker James Harrison leveled Cleveland Browns all-purpose man Josh Cribbs with a similar and equally illegal blow to the head. Cribbs was lost for the rest of Sunday’s 28-10 Steelers win.
Lastly, let’s travel out west to Denver’s Invesco Field. On multiple occasions, New York Jets mighty mite safety Jim Leonard launched himself helmet-first at Broncos receivers during Sunday’s 24-20 win. On one occasion Leonard was flagged for an idiotic fourth-quarter hit. Although no one left the game injured, one has to wonder how lucky both the Broncos receiving corps and Leonard were after all the punishment he dished out to them and himself.
Were these the only helmet-to-helmet collisions that took place this weekend? Hardly, but these six collisions should be example enough to indicate college and professional football is in crisis. If only by shear luck are we only talking about one paralyzed player from this weekend’s action. The NFL is now considering fining or suspending players who initiate helmet-to-helmet collisions, but will that ultimately eliminate them from games? Probably not. This morning I listened to Mike Greenberg and Mike Golic of ESPN Radio discuss this issue with commentators Cris Carter and Mike Ditka. Golic, Carter and Ditka all played in the NFL; all had their own ideas on how to eliminate helmet-to-helmet collisions: changing the helmet and face mask to be less protective, mandating ejections for such collisions, even mandating the wearing of upper and lower mouth guards. All three, as well as ESPN’s NFL Live commentator and ex-player Merrill Hodge, discussed the eroding of tackling fundamentals.
And this is where we all need to focus. The bottom line is that today’s players lack the fundamental skills for tackling, and this erosion of skills has been going on for quite some time.
Players ARE using their heads as weapons, but not for the reasons many might think. Besides lacking fundamental tackling skills, today’s players are products of the SportsCenter generation, where loyal viewers watch highlight shows that glorify hard hits and collisions that make Isaac Newton spin in his grave. Today’s players watch enough cable sports shows to know what drives the ratings and how they can get noticed. For the sake of “look at ME” individualism in team sports, they’re using their heads to produce the best “WOW effect” for the fans and the cameras. They know enough about football to know that helmet hits will stun an opposing player into falling down fast and hard, not only ending a play but potentially producing a turnover, thus changing the momentum of a game and arousing a stadium full of fans.
Do you notice how players go to strip the ball before they actually try to tackle the ball carrier? Fumbles excite fans and catches the attention of sports networks needing to put together highlight shows for 6pm and 11pm viewers, hence big ratings. Think about that the next time you watch ESPN’s Chris Berman on his NFL Primetime show. Berman gets as animated over fumbles as Andres Cantor yells "Goooaaaalll!"
Fumbles are big-time game changers, part of the “WOW effect” for fans, just like the big-time hits that cause many of these fumbles. But big-time hits can maim or kill a player. Most helmet-to-helmet hits are deliberate, because players are ignorant of tackling skills, because they simply don’t know any better.
In a way, we as fans and consumers of sports television helped create this mess, as well as deadly epidemic. There are more than enough players eager to oblige us, oblivious to or betting against their risk for permanent physical injury. In a sports culture where every player views himself as a brand and permanent notoriety is the ultimate desire, the risk is worth taking just for the memory of that one big WOW. Until we stop saying WOW from the stands, broadcast booths and television studios, we’re guilty accomplices. The NCAA and NFL can do as they deem prudent, but such legislation will be toothless as long as we keep glorifying violence that crosses the line.
Let’s begin in my own neighborhood of East Rutherford, New Jersey, and the new Meadowlands Stadium. On Saturday, Rutgers University played Army. During the fourth quarter, Rutgers defensive tackle Eric LeGrand, a 275-pound junior, attempted tackling the Army kick returner, 180-pound sophomore Malcolm Brown. LeGrand’s tackling technique? It started by lowering his helmet into Brown’s torso. The result? LeGrand injured his cervical spine and he’s currently paralyzed from the neck down after vertebral stabilizing surgery at Hackensack University Medical Center (HUMC). It remains to be seen how long it will be before LeGrand recovers and regains use of his arms and legs since his spinal cord apparently wasn’t severed.
What makes LeGrand’s injury ironic is that it occurred mere minutes after Rutgers tied the game at 17-all on a touchdown drive sustained when Army linebacker Steve Erzinger inflicted a helmet-to-helmet hit on Rutgers quarterback Chas Dodd. Erzinger’s personal foul negated a potential game clinching interception by Army defensive back Donovan Travis. As violent collisions obey the laws of motion as randomly as quantum mechanics, neither Erzinger nor Dodd suffered injury; LeGrand lays in a hospital bed wondering about his life.
As if those collisions weren’t enough for the Meadowlands, Detroit Lions special teamer Zack Follett collided head-on with New York Giants rookie defensive lineman Jason Paul-Pierre during a fourth quarter kickoff on Sunday. Lying on the stadium turf, Follett fortunately had feeling in his extremities, even though he required immobilization onto a backboard and being taken to HUMC, where tests determined no vertebral damage. After overnight observation, Follett was discharged today from HUMC. Paul-Pierre apparently suffered no injury from the collision.
Let’s travel a little south down I-95 to Philadelphia’s Lincoln Financial Field. During the second quarter of Sunday’s game between the Eagles and Atlanta Falcons, Eagles wide receiver DeSean Jackson collided helmet-to-helmet with Falcons cornerback Dunta Robinson. Although both players lay on the turf for several minutes afterwards, both had to be helped off the field. Neither returned to the game afterwards, each suffering a head injury.
A question arose after the game about Robinson being guilty of headhunting in light of Jackson scoring two touchdowns during the first quarter of a 31-17 Eagles win (the Eagles at one time led 21-0). Robinson was penalized for hitting a defenseless receiver.
Let’s travel north to Foxborough, Massachusetts and Gillette Stadium. During the second quarter of their 23-20 win over the Baltimore Ravens on Sunday, New England Patriots safety Brandon Meriweather unloaded on Ravens tight end Todd Heap in yet another helmet-to-helmet collision. Although both Heap and Meriweather were okay afterwards, Meriweather was flagged for his helmet-first launch. Although Meriweather apologized for his illegal hit, he made clear that his aggressive style of play would not be altered.
The second quarter was also dangerous at Pittsburgh’s Heinz Field, as Steelers linebacker James Harrison leveled Cleveland Browns all-purpose man Josh Cribbs with a similar and equally illegal blow to the head. Cribbs was lost for the rest of Sunday’s 28-10 Steelers win.
Lastly, let’s travel out west to Denver’s Invesco Field. On multiple occasions, New York Jets mighty mite safety Jim Leonard launched himself helmet-first at Broncos receivers during Sunday’s 24-20 win. On one occasion Leonard was flagged for an idiotic fourth-quarter hit. Although no one left the game injured, one has to wonder how lucky both the Broncos receiving corps and Leonard were after all the punishment he dished out to them and himself.
Were these the only helmet-to-helmet collisions that took place this weekend? Hardly, but these six collisions should be example enough to indicate college and professional football is in crisis. If only by shear luck are we only talking about one paralyzed player from this weekend’s action. The NFL is now considering fining or suspending players who initiate helmet-to-helmet collisions, but will that ultimately eliminate them from games? Probably not. This morning I listened to Mike Greenberg and Mike Golic of ESPN Radio discuss this issue with commentators Cris Carter and Mike Ditka. Golic, Carter and Ditka all played in the NFL; all had their own ideas on how to eliminate helmet-to-helmet collisions: changing the helmet and face mask to be less protective, mandating ejections for such collisions, even mandating the wearing of upper and lower mouth guards. All three, as well as ESPN’s NFL Live commentator and ex-player Merrill Hodge, discussed the eroding of tackling fundamentals.
And this is where we all need to focus. The bottom line is that today’s players lack the fundamental skills for tackling, and this erosion of skills has been going on for quite some time.
Players ARE using their heads as weapons, but not for the reasons many might think. Besides lacking fundamental tackling skills, today’s players are products of the SportsCenter generation, where loyal viewers watch highlight shows that glorify hard hits and collisions that make Isaac Newton spin in his grave. Today’s players watch enough cable sports shows to know what drives the ratings and how they can get noticed. For the sake of “look at ME” individualism in team sports, they’re using their heads to produce the best “WOW effect” for the fans and the cameras. They know enough about football to know that helmet hits will stun an opposing player into falling down fast and hard, not only ending a play but potentially producing a turnover, thus changing the momentum of a game and arousing a stadium full of fans.
Do you notice how players go to strip the ball before they actually try to tackle the ball carrier? Fumbles excite fans and catches the attention of sports networks needing to put together highlight shows for 6pm and 11pm viewers, hence big ratings. Think about that the next time you watch ESPN’s Chris Berman on his NFL Primetime show. Berman gets as animated over fumbles as Andres Cantor yells "Goooaaaalll!"
Fumbles are big-time game changers, part of the “WOW effect” for fans, just like the big-time hits that cause many of these fumbles. But big-time hits can maim or kill a player. Most helmet-to-helmet hits are deliberate, because players are ignorant of tackling skills, because they simply don’t know any better.
In a way, we as fans and consumers of sports television helped create this mess, as well as deadly epidemic. There are more than enough players eager to oblige us, oblivious to or betting against their risk for permanent physical injury. In a sports culture where every player views himself as a brand and permanent notoriety is the ultimate desire, the risk is worth taking just for the memory of that one big WOW. Until we stop saying WOW from the stands, broadcast booths and television studios, we’re guilty accomplices. The NCAA and NFL can do as they deem prudent, but such legislation will be toothless as long as we keep glorifying violence that crosses the line.
Wednesday, October 13, 2010
NFL Week 5 Reflections -- Sports thoughts for October 13, 2010
Here’s 20 reflections of week 5, starting with Monday night’s Vikings-Jets game at the new Meadowlands Stadium:
1. For the second time in five weeks, the opening kickoff for a Jets home game has been delayed because of heavy rain, thunder and lightning. If September and October already pose weather issues for the new stadium, what are we to worry about in February 2014 when this stadium hosts the first cold-weather outdoors Super Bowl? You think NFL owners and commissioner Roger Goodell are having second thoughts? You think Woody Johnson’s asking himself why he and Giants owner John Mara couldn’t figure out a way to fork over the extra cost for a retractable roof? Heck, I can’t wait until Thanksgiving night when the Jets host Cincinnati for the primetime game of the league’s holiday triple header. Wanna bet a logistical nightmare awaits if that game’s delayed after fans have spent the day eating and drinking before they arrive at the Stadium?
2. Boy, Brett Favre really has a flare for the dramatic, doesn’t he? A months-old story about him sexting former Jets reporter Jenn Sterger resurfaces this weekend as Grandpa Brett returns to the Meadowlands to face the team he played quarterback for in 2008. Toss in the return to Minnesota by Randy Moss, and the Vikings were almost as compelling a media circus as the Jets normally are.
3. So Grandpa Brett offers a teary apology to his teammates before the game for causing a distraction because the NFL is investigating him for his antics with Sterger? Are we to understand this is the only distraction he’s created since joining the Vikings last year?
4. Let me get this straight, part one: Favre spills his guts to his teammates in a closed locker room meeting, but placekicker Ryan Longwood is the liaison to ESPN’s Michelle Tafoya so she can report the most inside of scoops during pre-game coverage?
5. Let me get this straight, part two: If all these shenanigans between Favre and Sterger took place during the 2008 season, why is the NFL first investigating things in 2010? Did it really take two years for Sterger to generate the courage to speak up about another professional athlete acting crass towards her, a female media professional?
6. By the way, there was a heck of a game going on at the Meadowlands Monday night. For the first 40 minutes, the Jets seemed to do anything they wanted against the Vikings except score touchdowns. But you knew that 12-0 lead could disappear in a blink if Favre got hot, and for the final 20 minutes, Favre showed why he’s a future hall of famer, passing for 233 yards and three touchdowns. However, true to form, Favre also showed why longevity has him leading all NFL passers in pass attempts, completions, yards, touchdowns, interceptions and fumbles. Not only did Favre eclipse 70,000 career yards and 500 touchdowns, he also threw the 319th interception of his career (returned for a clinching touchdown by the Jets Dwight Lowery) and lost two fumbles (the 70th and 71st of his career). So, as is usually the case, we got to see the best and worst of Favre in the same game, a 29-20 loss.
7. Did anyone notice the Jets rushed for 155 yards Monday night, the most the Vikings defense has given up since 2006? Did anyone notice an understated yet steady performance by Mark Sanchez, who’s now gone five straight games without committing a turnover? Did anyone notice that while the Jets settled for a 9-0 halftime lead, their defense held the Vikings offense to a mere 51 yards? Am I the only one wondering if the Jets are indeed the only NFL team capable of beating these Jets?
8. Did you catch Rex Ryan’s post-game comments? If you got past the gloating and relief you heard Rex say that they were able to overcome their own mistake of not eating up enough time on a third-down pass play before the second-half two-minute warning. Isn’t that interesting… overcoming mistakes, as if that’s what championship-caliber teams are supposed to do. What a difference a year makes for Gang Green. Not only are they no longer making excuses for losses, they’re manning up when the going gets tough. Think about the week one 10-9 home loss to the Ravens. Rex made no excuses, and in many respects that loss was on Rex and offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer for stifling the offense and Sanchez when a more-open passing game could’ve helped turn a close loss into an good enough win. The Jets may lead the NFL in yapping, but so far we haven’t heard any whining over missed opportunities or questionable calls. They talk the talk and walk the walk, and now they’re a very legitimate 4-1.
9. Which 1-3 team has the best chance to turn their season around next week when the Vikings host the Dallas Cowboys? Who thought either team would be in this predicament four games into their season? I’m not sure which team has the better talent, but if I was a betting man, I’d put my money on the Vikings. Why? All you had to see was the guts and discipline they showed Monday night fighting back against the Jets and making the Jets sweat until the last minutes. The Cowboys lack discipline or a sense of urgency. We’ve seen it in their week one loss at Washington and their home losses to the Bears (week 2) and Titans (week 5). In fact, if we look back to their week 3 win at Houston, we might start to wonder if the Cowboys were simply playing up to their level or if the Texans still don’t know how to play consistently enough to rank among the better AFC teams.
10. Is it possible the Texans simply can’t handle NFC East teams? Think about it… they needed an incredible comeback to beat the Redskins 30-27, week 2 in Washington, and outlasted the Raiders 31-24 in a week 4 shootout in Oakland. They started the season with a 34-24 upset over the Colts at home, but lost at home to the Cowboys 27-13 (week 3) and Giants 34-10 this past Sunday. In case you’re keeping score, the 3-2 Texans have been outscored 136-118 so far this season, leading me to wonder if all the hype after winning their final 4 games in 2009 to finish 9-7 was really smoke and mirrors. For a team that has finally found a running game and boasts of a maturing defense, it sure doesn’t seem like the Texans can stop anyone.
11. So how’s the Giants locker room doing now? Funny how Tiki Barber shooting his mouth off about Tom Coughlin losing his players provides a boost for a defense trying to relocate its swagger. Somehow beating the Bears and Texans by a combined 51-13 has quieted down the critics. FYI: the Giants now have the top-ranked defense in the NFL (244.6 yards allowed per game).
12. All four AFC South teams are 3-2: the Colts, Jaguars, Texans and Titans. Only the Colts and Titans have scored more points than their opponents so far this season. I know it’s early and some of this information could be useless several weeks from now, but if you’re wondering how legitimate the Texans and Jaguars are, keep in mind both teams have suffered at least one blow-out loss five games into the season. If you’re hoping to win a divisional title, it’s probably not a good omen if you have to outscore opponents in order to secure wins.
13. So the Detroit Lions have finally won a game, 44-6 at home over the Rams. As I said last week, the Lions are a competitive team that plays close against better teams. Seeing what they did to the Rams makes me think the Lions are not too far away from finally breaking their 23-game road losing streak.
14. Which team is a bigger disappointment so far, the 0-5 49ers or the 2-3 Bengals, both pre-season favorites by many to make the playoffs. In the 49ers case, they’ve lost heartbreaking close games to the Saints, Falcons and Eagles. The Bengals, however, have lost stinkers to the Browns and Buccaneers. While the 49ers are still trying to find themselves offensively with Alex Smith at quarterback, the Bengals offense is an enigma with Carson Palmer at quarterback, who seems only capable to producing big numbers with Terrell Owens. Chad Ochocinco is generally the forgotten man in the offensive scheme and it still seems like Palmer’s favoring his throwing arm and can’t make the tight throws into coverage anymore.
15. Are the Kansas City Chiefs for real, or was their 3-0 start a mirage against three lower-quality teams? It may take a few more weeks to conclusively answer that question, but I was vey impressed by how close they kept the Colts last Sunday in a 19-9 loss. It’s been a long time since I’ve seen a defense fluster Peyton Manning, but the fact that they held the NFL’s best quarterback to 244 yards on 26 completions (44 attempts) and no touchdowns speaks very positively for the Chiefs defensive unit. And the Chiefs even sacked and intercepted Manning too!
16. Which NFC North team will run out of healthy bodies first, the Green Packers or the Chicago Bears?
17. At 0-5, there’s little hope for the Buffalo Bills this season. However, one shining member of the Bills roster is quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick. Say what you will about a Harvard graduate playing NFL quarterback, but this kid can play, and plays with guts. In a 36-26 loss to the Jaguars, Fitzpatrick completed 20 of 30 for 220 yards and three touchdowns. He showed spunk in a 38-14 loss to the Jets (week 4) and now he’s put together two consecutive games that indicate promise for the future. If the Bills are smart, they’ll stop looking for their quarterback of the future and let Fitzpatrick develop.
18. Why is this 2-3 start more disturbing than all other 2-3 starts by the San Diego Chargers? Could it be due to their horrid special teams? So far the Chargers have given up three kickoff returns for touchdowns and last Sunday had two punts blocked – one for a safety and the other for a touchdown – by the Raiders. And the Dolphins felt compelled to fire their special teams coordinator?!
19. Even with all that good fortune by the Raiders special teams, they were gasping for air at the end of a 35-27 win. Why? Phillip Rivers led the Chargers on a comeback, completing 27 of 42 passes for 431 yards. In case you’re wondering, that’s 431 yards against a defense boasting a $16-million cornerback.
20. The Falcons are 4-1, the Bucs are 3-1, and the Saints are 3-2 in the NFC South. I just wanted to remind you that no team has ever repeated as division champ since NFL realignment in 2002.
1. For the second time in five weeks, the opening kickoff for a Jets home game has been delayed because of heavy rain, thunder and lightning. If September and October already pose weather issues for the new stadium, what are we to worry about in February 2014 when this stadium hosts the first cold-weather outdoors Super Bowl? You think NFL owners and commissioner Roger Goodell are having second thoughts? You think Woody Johnson’s asking himself why he and Giants owner John Mara couldn’t figure out a way to fork over the extra cost for a retractable roof? Heck, I can’t wait until Thanksgiving night when the Jets host Cincinnati for the primetime game of the league’s holiday triple header. Wanna bet a logistical nightmare awaits if that game’s delayed after fans have spent the day eating and drinking before they arrive at the Stadium?
2. Boy, Brett Favre really has a flare for the dramatic, doesn’t he? A months-old story about him sexting former Jets reporter Jenn Sterger resurfaces this weekend as Grandpa Brett returns to the Meadowlands to face the team he played quarterback for in 2008. Toss in the return to Minnesota by Randy Moss, and the Vikings were almost as compelling a media circus as the Jets normally are.
3. So Grandpa Brett offers a teary apology to his teammates before the game for causing a distraction because the NFL is investigating him for his antics with Sterger? Are we to understand this is the only distraction he’s created since joining the Vikings last year?
4. Let me get this straight, part one: Favre spills his guts to his teammates in a closed locker room meeting, but placekicker Ryan Longwood is the liaison to ESPN’s Michelle Tafoya so she can report the most inside of scoops during pre-game coverage?
5. Let me get this straight, part two: If all these shenanigans between Favre and Sterger took place during the 2008 season, why is the NFL first investigating things in 2010? Did it really take two years for Sterger to generate the courage to speak up about another professional athlete acting crass towards her, a female media professional?
6. By the way, there was a heck of a game going on at the Meadowlands Monday night. For the first 40 minutes, the Jets seemed to do anything they wanted against the Vikings except score touchdowns. But you knew that 12-0 lead could disappear in a blink if Favre got hot, and for the final 20 minutes, Favre showed why he’s a future hall of famer, passing for 233 yards and three touchdowns. However, true to form, Favre also showed why longevity has him leading all NFL passers in pass attempts, completions, yards, touchdowns, interceptions and fumbles. Not only did Favre eclipse 70,000 career yards and 500 touchdowns, he also threw the 319th interception of his career (returned for a clinching touchdown by the Jets Dwight Lowery) and lost two fumbles (the 70th and 71st of his career). So, as is usually the case, we got to see the best and worst of Favre in the same game, a 29-20 loss.
7. Did anyone notice the Jets rushed for 155 yards Monday night, the most the Vikings defense has given up since 2006? Did anyone notice an understated yet steady performance by Mark Sanchez, who’s now gone five straight games without committing a turnover? Did anyone notice that while the Jets settled for a 9-0 halftime lead, their defense held the Vikings offense to a mere 51 yards? Am I the only one wondering if the Jets are indeed the only NFL team capable of beating these Jets?
8. Did you catch Rex Ryan’s post-game comments? If you got past the gloating and relief you heard Rex say that they were able to overcome their own mistake of not eating up enough time on a third-down pass play before the second-half two-minute warning. Isn’t that interesting… overcoming mistakes, as if that’s what championship-caliber teams are supposed to do. What a difference a year makes for Gang Green. Not only are they no longer making excuses for losses, they’re manning up when the going gets tough. Think about the week one 10-9 home loss to the Ravens. Rex made no excuses, and in many respects that loss was on Rex and offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer for stifling the offense and Sanchez when a more-open passing game could’ve helped turn a close loss into an good enough win. The Jets may lead the NFL in yapping, but so far we haven’t heard any whining over missed opportunities or questionable calls. They talk the talk and walk the walk, and now they’re a very legitimate 4-1.
9. Which 1-3 team has the best chance to turn their season around next week when the Vikings host the Dallas Cowboys? Who thought either team would be in this predicament four games into their season? I’m not sure which team has the better talent, but if I was a betting man, I’d put my money on the Vikings. Why? All you had to see was the guts and discipline they showed Monday night fighting back against the Jets and making the Jets sweat until the last minutes. The Cowboys lack discipline or a sense of urgency. We’ve seen it in their week one loss at Washington and their home losses to the Bears (week 2) and Titans (week 5). In fact, if we look back to their week 3 win at Houston, we might start to wonder if the Cowboys were simply playing up to their level or if the Texans still don’t know how to play consistently enough to rank among the better AFC teams.
10. Is it possible the Texans simply can’t handle NFC East teams? Think about it… they needed an incredible comeback to beat the Redskins 30-27, week 2 in Washington, and outlasted the Raiders 31-24 in a week 4 shootout in Oakland. They started the season with a 34-24 upset over the Colts at home, but lost at home to the Cowboys 27-13 (week 3) and Giants 34-10 this past Sunday. In case you’re keeping score, the 3-2 Texans have been outscored 136-118 so far this season, leading me to wonder if all the hype after winning their final 4 games in 2009 to finish 9-7 was really smoke and mirrors. For a team that has finally found a running game and boasts of a maturing defense, it sure doesn’t seem like the Texans can stop anyone.
11. So how’s the Giants locker room doing now? Funny how Tiki Barber shooting his mouth off about Tom Coughlin losing his players provides a boost for a defense trying to relocate its swagger. Somehow beating the Bears and Texans by a combined 51-13 has quieted down the critics. FYI: the Giants now have the top-ranked defense in the NFL (244.6 yards allowed per game).
12. All four AFC South teams are 3-2: the Colts, Jaguars, Texans and Titans. Only the Colts and Titans have scored more points than their opponents so far this season. I know it’s early and some of this information could be useless several weeks from now, but if you’re wondering how legitimate the Texans and Jaguars are, keep in mind both teams have suffered at least one blow-out loss five games into the season. If you’re hoping to win a divisional title, it’s probably not a good omen if you have to outscore opponents in order to secure wins.
13. So the Detroit Lions have finally won a game, 44-6 at home over the Rams. As I said last week, the Lions are a competitive team that plays close against better teams. Seeing what they did to the Rams makes me think the Lions are not too far away from finally breaking their 23-game road losing streak.
14. Which team is a bigger disappointment so far, the 0-5 49ers or the 2-3 Bengals, both pre-season favorites by many to make the playoffs. In the 49ers case, they’ve lost heartbreaking close games to the Saints, Falcons and Eagles. The Bengals, however, have lost stinkers to the Browns and Buccaneers. While the 49ers are still trying to find themselves offensively with Alex Smith at quarterback, the Bengals offense is an enigma with Carson Palmer at quarterback, who seems only capable to producing big numbers with Terrell Owens. Chad Ochocinco is generally the forgotten man in the offensive scheme and it still seems like Palmer’s favoring his throwing arm and can’t make the tight throws into coverage anymore.
15. Are the Kansas City Chiefs for real, or was their 3-0 start a mirage against three lower-quality teams? It may take a few more weeks to conclusively answer that question, but I was vey impressed by how close they kept the Colts last Sunday in a 19-9 loss. It’s been a long time since I’ve seen a defense fluster Peyton Manning, but the fact that they held the NFL’s best quarterback to 244 yards on 26 completions (44 attempts) and no touchdowns speaks very positively for the Chiefs defensive unit. And the Chiefs even sacked and intercepted Manning too!
16. Which NFC North team will run out of healthy bodies first, the Green Packers or the Chicago Bears?
17. At 0-5, there’s little hope for the Buffalo Bills this season. However, one shining member of the Bills roster is quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick. Say what you will about a Harvard graduate playing NFL quarterback, but this kid can play, and plays with guts. In a 36-26 loss to the Jaguars, Fitzpatrick completed 20 of 30 for 220 yards and three touchdowns. He showed spunk in a 38-14 loss to the Jets (week 4) and now he’s put together two consecutive games that indicate promise for the future. If the Bills are smart, they’ll stop looking for their quarterback of the future and let Fitzpatrick develop.
18. Why is this 2-3 start more disturbing than all other 2-3 starts by the San Diego Chargers? Could it be due to their horrid special teams? So far the Chargers have given up three kickoff returns for touchdowns and last Sunday had two punts blocked – one for a safety and the other for a touchdown – by the Raiders. And the Dolphins felt compelled to fire their special teams coordinator?!
19. Even with all that good fortune by the Raiders special teams, they were gasping for air at the end of a 35-27 win. Why? Phillip Rivers led the Chargers on a comeback, completing 27 of 42 passes for 431 yards. In case you’re wondering, that’s 431 yards against a defense boasting a $16-million cornerback.
20. The Falcons are 4-1, the Bucs are 3-1, and the Saints are 3-2 in the NFC South. I just wanted to remind you that no team has ever repeated as division champ since NFL realignment in 2002.
Wednesday, October 6, 2010
2010 NFL Season after the first quarter -- Sports Thoughts for October 6, 2010
So here we are, a quarter of the way into the 2010 NFL regular season. For those unfamiliar, most NFL head coaches tend to break down the 16-game schedule into 4-game quarters similar to how football games are played. Since the majority of teams (except for Dallas, Tampa Bay, Minnesota and Kansas City, who had a bye week) have now played their fourth game, we can now take a quick look at each division and see how things are going.
FYI: If the NFL does indeed go to an 18-game regular season schedule in 2011 or 2012, I highly advise the owners to allow two bye weeks, so head coaches can work with a symmetrical 20-week season with 5-week quarters... You know, why tinker too much with creatures of habit?
Have there been surprises? You bet, both good and bad. Who honestly expected the Kansas City Chiefs to be 3-0, and the only unbeaten team left, at this point of the season? Who honestly expected the Pittsburgh Steelers to be 3-1 without Ben Roethlisberger at quarterback? Who expected the Indianapolis Colts and St. Louis Rams to be among thirteen 2-2 teams? Who expected the San Francisco 49ers to join the Buffalo Bills, Carolina Panthers and Detroit Lions with a sorry 0-4 distinction? I don’t know about any of you, but I certainly didn’t expect or predict any of these things.
AFC East: It’s no great surprise the New York Jets and New England Patriots share first place at 3-1 so far, but how each team got here is a little surprising. The Jets have spent the past two weeks without cornerback Darrelle Revis (post-holdout hamstring strain) and looked very vulnerable on pass defense when Miami’s Chad Henne torched them for 363 yards on September 27. It’s been a very pleasant surprise, however, to see quarterback Mark Sanchez among NFL passing leaders with eight touchdowns and ZERO interceptions, and veteran running back L’Danian Tomlinson showing vintage form after a couple of down years in San Diego. In fact, the backfield duo of Tomlinson and Shonn Greene have combined for 567 rushing yards so far (a season total projection of 2,268 yards). As predicted before the season began, Dustin Keller has become a force at tight end and Sanchez’s favorite target with 19 receptions for 254 yards and 5 touchdowns (1 from all-purpose man Brad Smith against Buffalo). To think the Jets are going into week 5 with almost their entire starting offense and defense returning to action — Revis, linebacker Calvin Pace (broken foot), and wide receiver Santonio Holmes (suspension) -- they lost nose tackle Kris Jenkins to a week 1 ACL injury — the prospects are scary for opponents, especially when the Jets are already 3-0 within the division.
For the Patriots, we thought we saw who they really were during the first three weeks of the season against Cincinnati, the Jets, and Buffalo, going 2-1 by outscoring opponents 90-82: lots of passing offense directed by quarterback Tom Brady to offset a young and vulnerable defense. Then the Patriots beat the Dolphins October 4 in Miami 41-14, scoring touchdowns via rushing, passing, kickoff return, blocked field goal, and interception return. Despite giving up 400 yards, the Patriots defense was aggressive and opportunistic, giving hope to New England fans that maybe every game won’t be a shootout. But the Patriots are getting sparks from young players like running backs BenJarvus Green-Ellis and ex-Jet Danny Woodhead, tight ends Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez, kick returner Brandon Tate, linebacker Rob Ninkovich and safety Patrick Chung.
For the Dolphins, we now know quarterback Chad Henne can put up big numbers (665 yards passing, 5 TDs in weeks 3-4), but is also mistake-prone (4 INTs in weeks 3-4). The running game seems steady, but suddenly opposing defenses have caught up with and shut down the Wildcat scheme. The special teams are a mess (1 kickoff return for TD and 3 blocked kicks in weeks 3-4) leading to the firing of coach John Bonamego. Consistency doesn’t seem to be the Dolphins strong suit en route to a 2-2 start. They won their first two games at Buffalo and Minnesota, then lost the next two games at home to the Jets and Patriots (the Dolphins are the first team to accomplish this “feat” since the 1999 Pittsburgh Steelers). Already there’s talk of replacing Henne with Chad Pennington, but the Dolphins’ problems aren’t which Chad starts at quarterback as much as improving the special teams and defensive units.
For the 0-4 Bills, Buffalo is getting dark and cold early under first-year head coach Chan Gailey. During weeks 2, 3 and 4, the Bills have given up 38 points to the Packers, 38 points to the Patriots and 34 points to the Jets. They started the season with Trent Edwards at quarterback and Marshawn Lynch at running back. Now Edwards is in Jacksonville and Lynch is in Seattle. Harvard alum Ryan Fitzpatrick is now the starting quarterback and the Bills host Jacksonville for week 5. Does it get any better than this?
AFC North: When the season began, perhaps the biggest question was how far behind the Baltimore Ravens and Cincinnati Bengals would the Steelers be by the time quarterback Ben Roethlisberger returned from his 4-game suspension? Well, here we are entering week 5 and the Steelers share first place with the Ravens at 3-1 while the inconsistent Bengals are 2-2. How have the Steelers done it? Defense, defense and more defense, plus solid running from Rashard Mendenhall as they tried to make do with Dennis Dixon and Charlie Batch at quarterback. Now the Steelers get back Roethlisberger and the question remains what kind of offensive chemistry will they have for their week 6 game against Cleveland October 17 (they have a week 5 bye).
For the Ravens, we must take note how they beat the Jets and Steelers on the road, but we also need to take note of the 15-10 stinker they lost in Cincinnati on September 19. While defense is how the Ravens expect to win, it should be noted that the Jets, Bengals, Browns and Steelers all had success running the ball, perhaps a warning sign. But as long as running back Ray Rice nurses a banged-up knee, the Ravens may very well go as far as quarterback Joe Flacco takes them. While Flacco was horrid against Cincinnati, he was quite good against the Jets, Browns and Steelers, passing to wide receivers Anquan Boldin and T.J. Houshmandzadeh.
As for the Bengals, when they’re good, they’re pretty darned good. When they’re bad, well... You know the rest of the diddy. In week 1, the Bengals were torched in New England by a first half Patriots blitz that made a second half comeback harmless. In week 2, the offense did just enough to set up five Mike Nugent field goals in a 15-10 home win over the Ravens. In week 3, the offense again did just enough on the road to beat the Carolina Panthers 20-7. In week 4, despite a fantastic performance by quarterback Carson Palmer and wide receiver Terrell Owens (10 catches, 222 yards, 1 TD), the Bengals lost to the Browns in Cleveland, 23-20. Now the Bengals host the Tampa Bay Buccaneers for week 5. Which Bengals team will folks see? Offensive juggernaut? Offensive snooze? Staunch defensive effort? Defensive sieve? All or the above? None of the above?
In Cleveland, I don’t know which is more surprising: the Browns are 1-3, or the Browns first win came against the Bengals after starting the season hosting Tampa Bay and Kansas City. One thing is definitely certain with the Browns: they play tough and close games. Their four games so far have been decided by 3, 2, 7 and 3 points, which speaks positively for the competitive team general manager Mike Holmgren and head coach Eric Mangini put on the field. Since switching from Jake Delhomme (injured ankle) to Seneca Wallace at quarterback, the Browns are scoring more points on offense. As they prepare to host the Atlanta Falcons week 5, Holmgren and Mangini need to decide whether to return to the aging and less mobile Delhomme or stick with the younger and more mobile Wallace.
AFC South: So the Colts are 2-2. Should we worry? It depends on how you look at things. Yes, quarterback Peyton Manning is playing in vintage form, but the defense seems to be losing safeties at a startling rate. First Bob Sanders ruptures a bicep, then Melvin Bullitt suffers a fracture of his shoulder. The running game does well depending on the opponent, and while the defense gave up only 27 combined points in back-to-back wins over the New York Giants (week 2) and Denver Broncos (week 3), it’s already given up 34 and 31 points in road losses to the Houston Texans (week 1) and Jacksonville Jaguars (week 4). Now the Colts host the unbeaten and confident Chiefs in week 5. While we could question whether the Chiefs are legitimate enough to take on the Colts, we could also question whether the Colts have enough offense and defense to withstand a rejuvenated opponent who’s already upset two preseason favorites, the San Diego Chargers and San Francisco 49ers.
Is it overly surprising the Texans are 3-1? Not really, since many expected them to take the next step after last season’s 9-7 record. However, the Texans youth and inexperience as a top-echelon team showed when they lost at home week 3 to the then-winless Dallas Cowboys, 27-13. What we see so far is the Texans can score their share of points, and they need as many as possible to win, given they beat the Colts 34-24, Washington Redskins 30-27, and Oakland Raiders 31-24. What are we to think when they host the Giants this Sunday? Based on what the Giants did this past Sunday night to the Chicago Bears, the Texans better protect quarterback Matt Schaub or else there could be trouble. The Texans defense doesn’t seem to be stopping anyone, but now they get back linebacker Brian Cushing after a 4-game suspension, which should help against a Giants offense that hasn’t consistently found its rhythm yet.
The Tennessee Titans are 2-2, and it’s not quite clear what kind of team they are besides dirty, if you take seriously the accusations by the Giants and Denver Broncos. The Titans looked very physical beating the Raiders (week 1) and Giants (week 3), but looked sloppy and undisciplined in losses to the Steelers (week 2) and Broncos (week 4).
Also 2-2 are the Jaguars, beating the Broncos (week 1) and Colts (week 4) at home, but losing badly to the Chargers (week 2) and Philadelphia Eagles (week 3). After visiting the Bills Sunday, the Jaguars face a stretch of the Titans, Chiefs, Cowboys and Texans. By then we should know if David Garrard is still the starting quarterback or if he’s been replaced by Trent Edwards.
AFC West: This division has been full of surprises, particularly the 3-0 start by the Chiefs. Clearly the offense and defense are playing progressively better under new coordinators Charlie Weis and Romeo Crennel. But now the schedule gets more challenging with road games against the Colts and Texans after their week 4 bye. How the Chiefs play the next two weeks could tell us plenty about the rest of the season and how much that 3-0 start meant.
The 2-2 Chargers are supposed to be the class of the division and seem to be flexing muscle after its annual September snooze. Fresh off a 41-10 blasting of the Arizona Cardinals, the Chargers get ready to visit the Raiders and Rams before a three-week stretch hosting the Patriots and Titans, then visiting the Texans before a week 10 bye.
The 2-2 Broncos have already traveled east twice, losing at Jacksonville (week 1) and winning last week at Tennessee. In between they beat the Seattle Seahawks (week 2) and lost to the Colts (week 3) at home. Now they travel east again to play the Ravens in Baltimore Sunday before hosting the Jets October 17 and playing the 49ers in London October 24. So far the defense has given up 85 points while the offense has scored 86. The offensive unit relies heavily on the pass with quarterback Kyle Orton because the running game has produced very little (220 yards on 101 carries).
The 1-3 Raiders have only a week 2 16-14 home win against the Rams to smile about so far. They’ve lost 38-13 at the Titans (week 1), 24-23 at the Cardinals (week 3) and 31-24 to the Texans at home (week 4). They’ve already benched quarterback Jason Campbell (so much for those Jim Plunkett comparisons by owner Al Davis) for Bruce Gradkowski, and now face the Chargers (Sunday at home), 49ers, Broncos, Seahawks and Chiefs before their week 10 bye. If the Raiders are the dark horse team many predicted during the preseason, the next five games will either validate or make a mockery of that optimism.
NFC East: In my preview column I said a 9-7 record could very well be enough to win this division in a somewhat down season for all four teams. From what we’ve seen so far, there’s little reason to backtrack from that prediction. The Philadelphia Eagles, Washington Redskins and New York Giants are all 2-2; the Cowboys are 1-2. The Redskins, with new quarterback Donovan McNabb, have already beaten the Cowboys (week 1) and Eagles (week 4), but inexplicably lost to the Texans (week 2) and Rams (week 3). The Eagles, after trading McNabb, started the season with Kevin Kolb, switched to Michael Vick during a week 1 loss at home to the Green Bay Packers after Kolb suffered a concussion, then were forced to switch back to Kolb during their week 4 loss at home to the Redskins after Vick injured his ribs. While the Eagles can’t win at home, they’ve beaten the Lions (week 2) and Jaguars (week 3) on the road, led by impressive performances by Vick. The Giants started the season beating the Panthers at home, then lost at the Colts (week 2) and at home to the Titans (week 3) before smothering the Chicago Bears at home (week 4). The Cowboys started 0-2, losing at Washington and at home to the Bears, before beating the Texans in Houston.
Now the Cowboys are back from their week 4 bye and go on an nine-week stretch that includes the Giants (weeks 7 and 10), Titans (week 5), Vikings (week 6), Packers (week 9), Saints (week 12) and Colts (week 13). Before their week 8 bye, the Eagles visit the 49ers (week 5) and Titans (week 7), and host the Atlanta Falcons (week 6). The Redskins host the Packers (week 5) and Colts (week 6) before visiting the Bears (week 7) and Lions (week 8). Before their week 8 bye, the Giants visit the state of Texas twice (Houston, week 5; Dallas, week 7) and host the Lions in-between (week 6).
All four teams have trouble with their running games. The Eagles don’t run enough, the Cowboys don’t run consistently, the Giants running backs are plagued by fumbles and the Redskins don’t have healthy enough running backs. In terms of defense, the Cowboys and Redskins generally do well, the Giants suffer from feast or famine, and the Eagles hope the offense can keep outscoring what the defense gives up.
Health also continues to be an issue: quarterback for the Eagles, running back for the Redskins, offensive line for the Cowboys, almost every position for the Giants (except for rookie punter Matt Dodge, and Giants fans might want to work him over if he doesn’t improve).
NFC North: Well, well, well... Things haven’t been going smoothly in Minnesota, have they? Brett Favre returns from ankle surgery and his version of training camp in Mississippi and finds his favorite receiver, Sidney Rice, gone for the first eight weeks after offseason hip surgery. Then after being beaten to a pulp by Saints and Dolphins pass rushers, the Vikings start 0-2 and Favre’s wondering if he made the right decision to get off his tractor and come back north for “one more season” (C’mon... Football seasons and Brett Favre are like Lays potato chips. You can’t stop at one). After beating the Lions 24-10 at home during week 3, the Vikings still needed to shore up their weaknesses during the week 4 bye.
Helloooooo Randy Moss! Yes, the Vikings sent a third-round 2011 draft pick to the Patriots for the grumpy wide receiver who grouses about a contract extension. So, for the first time since 2004, Randy Moss will wear a Vikings jersey when they visit the Jets Monday night. Will Moss help? Who knows? There will be timing and chemistry issues to work out with Favre, but on the bright side, Moss is already familiar with the Jets secondary, be it Darrelle Revis or Antonio Cromartie covering him, as they did in week 2. After the Jets, the Vikings host the Cowboys before visiting the Packers and Patriots (do you think head coach Bill Belichick has some special coverage plans in store?).
As of now, the top of this division belongs to the Packers and Bears, both 3-1. The Bears beat the Packers in week 3, then were beaten into submission by the Giants in week 4. Quarterbacks Jake Cutler and Todd Collins were both knocked out with injuries in the Giants game, but it is believed Cutler’s recovered enough from his concussion to start Sunday against the Panthers in Carolina. But the Giants game exposed the Bears offense and their considerable limitations. The offensive line is a mess with key starters injured and replacements playing out of position. Cutler very much loves Mike Martz’s new offensive scheme, but he simply doesn’t have wide receivers talented enough to fully emulate the “Greatest show on turf” act the Rams ran 1999-2003. Worse, the Bears can’t seem to run the ball with any consistency, not good for a team that plays in Chicago during the months of November and December. The Bears host the Seahawks and Redskins to round out October, perhaps an opportunity to fatten up the won-loss record against mediocre opponents, or perhaps more opportunities to expose the Bears for being a mediocre team themselves.
As for the Packers, they’ve looked good scoring points in bunches against the Eagles (week 1), Bills (week 2) and Lions (week 3). Unfortunately, they lost Ryan Grant to injury in week 1, so the running game is nonexistent. This forces quarterback Aaron Rodgers to provide all the offense, which again is not a good sign when you play in Wisconsin during the months of November and December. As good as the defense was last year, it seems to have slipped a bit so far, giving up 68 points combined to the Eagles, Bears and Lions. Next up are the Redskins, Dolphins, Vikings, Jets and Cowboys before their week 10 bye. Better hope Mr. Rodgers is ready to throw and score points early and often.
As for the 0-4 Lions, they are at least competitive, losing to the Bears (week 1), Eagles (week 2) and Packers (week 4) by a combined ten points. Now they host the very improved Rams on Sunday, and we need to wonder when the Lions have solid opportunities left to win a few games: the Redskins (week 8), Bills (week 10) and Buccaneers (week 15) are the best ones. Once again, the injury bug bit quarterback Matt Stafford, the defense still gives up too many yards and points, and the running game is anemic.
NFC South: Most folks believed if any team could repeat as champ of this division it would be the defending Super Bowls champion Saints, but a funny thing has happened along the way. Although the Saints are 3-1, the offense isn’t scoring at the explosive clip it did last year, the running game suffers, primarily from missing an injured Reggie Bush, and the defense is more vulnerable without injured safety Darren Sharper. After squeaking by the Vikings (week 1), 49ers (week 2) and Panthers (week 4), the Saints now visit the Cardinals and Buccaneers before hosting the Browns (week 7) and Steelers (week 8).
The 3-1 Atlanta Falcons have shown preseason playoff predictions to be well-founded, having beat the Cardinals, 49ers and Saints after an overtime loss at Pittsburgh in week 1. The Falcons offense shows decent balance and production from both the passing of quarterback Matt Ryan and the running of Michael Turner. The defense has only given up 60 points so far. Now the Falcons visit Cleveland and Philadelphia before hosting Cincinnati (week 7) and Tampa Bay (week 8). The Falcons have won close games (49ers, Saints) and blowouts (Cardinals). They’re relatively healthy so far, so the next four weeks are a good opportunity to stay on top of the division.
At 2-1, the Buccaneers are a pleasant surprise, beating the Browns and Panthers before the Steelers brought them down to Earth in a 38-13 week 3 home loss. Coming from their week 4 bye, the Bucs visit the Bengals (week 5), Cardinals (week 8), Falcons (week 9), 49ers (week 11) and Ravens (week 12), and host the Saints (week 6), Rams (week 7), Panthers (week 10) and Falcons (week 13). By then we should know how far these Bucs have improved from last year’s 3-13 performance. So far the defense seems to hold its own against less physical teams and second-year quarterback Josh Freeman seems more sure of himself.
At 0-4, the Carolina Panthers have lost to the Giants, Bucs, Bengals and Saints. The offense can’t seem to produce. The running game is anemic, and they’re switched quarterbacks from Matt Moore to rookie Jimmy Clausen. The defense wears down because it’s on the field too much. None of these observations bode well for head coach John Fox, who’s in the final year of his contract. In search of their first win, the Panthers host the Bears on Sunday, then host the 49ers after their week 6 bye. After that it doesn’t get a lot easier, as the Panthers visit the Rams (week 8), Bucs (week 10), Browns (week 12) and Seahawks (week 13) and host the Saints (week 9) and Ravens (week 11).
NFC West: In what was expected to be a wide-open division after the Cardinals lost Kurt Warner, Antrel Rolle, Anquan Boldin and Karlos Dansby, it’s a little surprising to see these Cardinals sharing first place. Granted the Cardinals, Seahawks and Rams are all 2-2, and the preseason favorite 49ers are 0-4. Go Figure?
Despite the Cardinals having a quarterback dilemma between mediocre Derek Anderson and rookie Max Hall, they’re managed to eke out wins over the Rams (week 1) and Raiders (week 3). However, true to a 2-2 team, the Cardinals were outscored 82-17 in week 2 and 4 stinkers at the Falcons and Chargers. Now they host the Saints before their week 6 bye. Playing the Seahawks (weeks 7 and 10) in addition to the Bucs (week 8), Vikings (week 9) and Chiefs (week 11) should give us a better idea as to what kind of team the Cardinals are... Then again, maybe it won’t.
The Seahawks seem to have new energy and focus under new head coach Pete Carroll. They’ve played spirited and explosive football in beating the 49ers (week 1) and Chargers (week 3) at home, but stunk up the joint in losses at the Broncos (week 2) and Rams (week 4). But the defense is motivated, quarterback Matt Hasselbeck seems healthy and focused, and ex-Jet Leon Washington has been a bonus at kick returner and third down back. After their week 5 bye, the Seahawks play the Cardinals twice (weeks 7 and 10) as well as the Bears (week 6), Raiders (week 8) and Giants (week 9).
Could it be that our St. Louis football team is no longer the cuddly Lamb Chops? News flash: The Rams are for real. The defense is starting to play like a Steve Spagnuolo unit and rookie quarterback Sam Bradford knows how to run an offense. It’s still a worry that the Rams need to pass so much behind a relatively weak and inexperienced offensive line, but so far, so good. After starting 0-2 with close losses to the Cardinals and Raiders, the Rams have handily beaten the Redskins (week 3) and Seahawks (week 4). Now the Rams play the Lions, Chargers, Bucs and Panthers before their week 9 bye.
In what’s been the biggest disappointment of the 2010 season so far, the 49ers have not only lost their first four games to the Seahawks, Saints, Chiefs and Falcons, they’ve lost close and by a lot. The offense can’t produce anything beyond turnovers, costing coordinator Jimmy Raye his job after a 31-10 week 3 loss in Kansas City. On the bright side, the 49ers are only two games behind the divisional leaders in what is a relatively weak division. On the bad side, the 49ers play the Eagles, Raiders, Panthers and Broncos before their week 9 bye.
FYI: If the NFL does indeed go to an 18-game regular season schedule in 2011 or 2012, I highly advise the owners to allow two bye weeks, so head coaches can work with a symmetrical 20-week season with 5-week quarters... You know, why tinker too much with creatures of habit?
Have there been surprises? You bet, both good and bad. Who honestly expected the Kansas City Chiefs to be 3-0, and the only unbeaten team left, at this point of the season? Who honestly expected the Pittsburgh Steelers to be 3-1 without Ben Roethlisberger at quarterback? Who expected the Indianapolis Colts and St. Louis Rams to be among thirteen 2-2 teams? Who expected the San Francisco 49ers to join the Buffalo Bills, Carolina Panthers and Detroit Lions with a sorry 0-4 distinction? I don’t know about any of you, but I certainly didn’t expect or predict any of these things.
AFC East: It’s no great surprise the New York Jets and New England Patriots share first place at 3-1 so far, but how each team got here is a little surprising. The Jets have spent the past two weeks without cornerback Darrelle Revis (post-holdout hamstring strain) and looked very vulnerable on pass defense when Miami’s Chad Henne torched them for 363 yards on September 27. It’s been a very pleasant surprise, however, to see quarterback Mark Sanchez among NFL passing leaders with eight touchdowns and ZERO interceptions, and veteran running back L’Danian Tomlinson showing vintage form after a couple of down years in San Diego. In fact, the backfield duo of Tomlinson and Shonn Greene have combined for 567 rushing yards so far (a season total projection of 2,268 yards). As predicted before the season began, Dustin Keller has become a force at tight end and Sanchez’s favorite target with 19 receptions for 254 yards and 5 touchdowns (1 from all-purpose man Brad Smith against Buffalo). To think the Jets are going into week 5 with almost their entire starting offense and defense returning to action — Revis, linebacker Calvin Pace (broken foot), and wide receiver Santonio Holmes (suspension) -- they lost nose tackle Kris Jenkins to a week 1 ACL injury — the prospects are scary for opponents, especially when the Jets are already 3-0 within the division.
For the Patriots, we thought we saw who they really were during the first three weeks of the season against Cincinnati, the Jets, and Buffalo, going 2-1 by outscoring opponents 90-82: lots of passing offense directed by quarterback Tom Brady to offset a young and vulnerable defense. Then the Patriots beat the Dolphins October 4 in Miami 41-14, scoring touchdowns via rushing, passing, kickoff return, blocked field goal, and interception return. Despite giving up 400 yards, the Patriots defense was aggressive and opportunistic, giving hope to New England fans that maybe every game won’t be a shootout. But the Patriots are getting sparks from young players like running backs BenJarvus Green-Ellis and ex-Jet Danny Woodhead, tight ends Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez, kick returner Brandon Tate, linebacker Rob Ninkovich and safety Patrick Chung.
For the Dolphins, we now know quarterback Chad Henne can put up big numbers (665 yards passing, 5 TDs in weeks 3-4), but is also mistake-prone (4 INTs in weeks 3-4). The running game seems steady, but suddenly opposing defenses have caught up with and shut down the Wildcat scheme. The special teams are a mess (1 kickoff return for TD and 3 blocked kicks in weeks 3-4) leading to the firing of coach John Bonamego. Consistency doesn’t seem to be the Dolphins strong suit en route to a 2-2 start. They won their first two games at Buffalo and Minnesota, then lost the next two games at home to the Jets and Patriots (the Dolphins are the first team to accomplish this “feat” since the 1999 Pittsburgh Steelers). Already there’s talk of replacing Henne with Chad Pennington, but the Dolphins’ problems aren’t which Chad starts at quarterback as much as improving the special teams and defensive units.
For the 0-4 Bills, Buffalo is getting dark and cold early under first-year head coach Chan Gailey. During weeks 2, 3 and 4, the Bills have given up 38 points to the Packers, 38 points to the Patriots and 34 points to the Jets. They started the season with Trent Edwards at quarterback and Marshawn Lynch at running back. Now Edwards is in Jacksonville and Lynch is in Seattle. Harvard alum Ryan Fitzpatrick is now the starting quarterback and the Bills host Jacksonville for week 5. Does it get any better than this?
AFC North: When the season began, perhaps the biggest question was how far behind the Baltimore Ravens and Cincinnati Bengals would the Steelers be by the time quarterback Ben Roethlisberger returned from his 4-game suspension? Well, here we are entering week 5 and the Steelers share first place with the Ravens at 3-1 while the inconsistent Bengals are 2-2. How have the Steelers done it? Defense, defense and more defense, plus solid running from Rashard Mendenhall as they tried to make do with Dennis Dixon and Charlie Batch at quarterback. Now the Steelers get back Roethlisberger and the question remains what kind of offensive chemistry will they have for their week 6 game against Cleveland October 17 (they have a week 5 bye).
For the Ravens, we must take note how they beat the Jets and Steelers on the road, but we also need to take note of the 15-10 stinker they lost in Cincinnati on September 19. While defense is how the Ravens expect to win, it should be noted that the Jets, Bengals, Browns and Steelers all had success running the ball, perhaps a warning sign. But as long as running back Ray Rice nurses a banged-up knee, the Ravens may very well go as far as quarterback Joe Flacco takes them. While Flacco was horrid against Cincinnati, he was quite good against the Jets, Browns and Steelers, passing to wide receivers Anquan Boldin and T.J. Houshmandzadeh.
As for the Bengals, when they’re good, they’re pretty darned good. When they’re bad, well... You know the rest of the diddy. In week 1, the Bengals were torched in New England by a first half Patriots blitz that made a second half comeback harmless. In week 2, the offense did just enough to set up five Mike Nugent field goals in a 15-10 home win over the Ravens. In week 3, the offense again did just enough on the road to beat the Carolina Panthers 20-7. In week 4, despite a fantastic performance by quarterback Carson Palmer and wide receiver Terrell Owens (10 catches, 222 yards, 1 TD), the Bengals lost to the Browns in Cleveland, 23-20. Now the Bengals host the Tampa Bay Buccaneers for week 5. Which Bengals team will folks see? Offensive juggernaut? Offensive snooze? Staunch defensive effort? Defensive sieve? All or the above? None of the above?
In Cleveland, I don’t know which is more surprising: the Browns are 1-3, or the Browns first win came against the Bengals after starting the season hosting Tampa Bay and Kansas City. One thing is definitely certain with the Browns: they play tough and close games. Their four games so far have been decided by 3, 2, 7 and 3 points, which speaks positively for the competitive team general manager Mike Holmgren and head coach Eric Mangini put on the field. Since switching from Jake Delhomme (injured ankle) to Seneca Wallace at quarterback, the Browns are scoring more points on offense. As they prepare to host the Atlanta Falcons week 5, Holmgren and Mangini need to decide whether to return to the aging and less mobile Delhomme or stick with the younger and more mobile Wallace.
AFC South: So the Colts are 2-2. Should we worry? It depends on how you look at things. Yes, quarterback Peyton Manning is playing in vintage form, but the defense seems to be losing safeties at a startling rate. First Bob Sanders ruptures a bicep, then Melvin Bullitt suffers a fracture of his shoulder. The running game does well depending on the opponent, and while the defense gave up only 27 combined points in back-to-back wins over the New York Giants (week 2) and Denver Broncos (week 3), it’s already given up 34 and 31 points in road losses to the Houston Texans (week 1) and Jacksonville Jaguars (week 4). Now the Colts host the unbeaten and confident Chiefs in week 5. While we could question whether the Chiefs are legitimate enough to take on the Colts, we could also question whether the Colts have enough offense and defense to withstand a rejuvenated opponent who’s already upset two preseason favorites, the San Diego Chargers and San Francisco 49ers.
Is it overly surprising the Texans are 3-1? Not really, since many expected them to take the next step after last season’s 9-7 record. However, the Texans youth and inexperience as a top-echelon team showed when they lost at home week 3 to the then-winless Dallas Cowboys, 27-13. What we see so far is the Texans can score their share of points, and they need as many as possible to win, given they beat the Colts 34-24, Washington Redskins 30-27, and Oakland Raiders 31-24. What are we to think when they host the Giants this Sunday? Based on what the Giants did this past Sunday night to the Chicago Bears, the Texans better protect quarterback Matt Schaub or else there could be trouble. The Texans defense doesn’t seem to be stopping anyone, but now they get back linebacker Brian Cushing after a 4-game suspension, which should help against a Giants offense that hasn’t consistently found its rhythm yet.
The Tennessee Titans are 2-2, and it’s not quite clear what kind of team they are besides dirty, if you take seriously the accusations by the Giants and Denver Broncos. The Titans looked very physical beating the Raiders (week 1) and Giants (week 3), but looked sloppy and undisciplined in losses to the Steelers (week 2) and Broncos (week 4).
Also 2-2 are the Jaguars, beating the Broncos (week 1) and Colts (week 4) at home, but losing badly to the Chargers (week 2) and Philadelphia Eagles (week 3). After visiting the Bills Sunday, the Jaguars face a stretch of the Titans, Chiefs, Cowboys and Texans. By then we should know if David Garrard is still the starting quarterback or if he’s been replaced by Trent Edwards.
AFC West: This division has been full of surprises, particularly the 3-0 start by the Chiefs. Clearly the offense and defense are playing progressively better under new coordinators Charlie Weis and Romeo Crennel. But now the schedule gets more challenging with road games against the Colts and Texans after their week 4 bye. How the Chiefs play the next two weeks could tell us plenty about the rest of the season and how much that 3-0 start meant.
The 2-2 Chargers are supposed to be the class of the division and seem to be flexing muscle after its annual September snooze. Fresh off a 41-10 blasting of the Arizona Cardinals, the Chargers get ready to visit the Raiders and Rams before a three-week stretch hosting the Patriots and Titans, then visiting the Texans before a week 10 bye.
The 2-2 Broncos have already traveled east twice, losing at Jacksonville (week 1) and winning last week at Tennessee. In between they beat the Seattle Seahawks (week 2) and lost to the Colts (week 3) at home. Now they travel east again to play the Ravens in Baltimore Sunday before hosting the Jets October 17 and playing the 49ers in London October 24. So far the defense has given up 85 points while the offense has scored 86. The offensive unit relies heavily on the pass with quarterback Kyle Orton because the running game has produced very little (220 yards on 101 carries).
The 1-3 Raiders have only a week 2 16-14 home win against the Rams to smile about so far. They’ve lost 38-13 at the Titans (week 1), 24-23 at the Cardinals (week 3) and 31-24 to the Texans at home (week 4). They’ve already benched quarterback Jason Campbell (so much for those Jim Plunkett comparisons by owner Al Davis) for Bruce Gradkowski, and now face the Chargers (Sunday at home), 49ers, Broncos, Seahawks and Chiefs before their week 10 bye. If the Raiders are the dark horse team many predicted during the preseason, the next five games will either validate or make a mockery of that optimism.
NFC East: In my preview column I said a 9-7 record could very well be enough to win this division in a somewhat down season for all four teams. From what we’ve seen so far, there’s little reason to backtrack from that prediction. The Philadelphia Eagles, Washington Redskins and New York Giants are all 2-2; the Cowboys are 1-2. The Redskins, with new quarterback Donovan McNabb, have already beaten the Cowboys (week 1) and Eagles (week 4), but inexplicably lost to the Texans (week 2) and Rams (week 3). The Eagles, after trading McNabb, started the season with Kevin Kolb, switched to Michael Vick during a week 1 loss at home to the Green Bay Packers after Kolb suffered a concussion, then were forced to switch back to Kolb during their week 4 loss at home to the Redskins after Vick injured his ribs. While the Eagles can’t win at home, they’ve beaten the Lions (week 2) and Jaguars (week 3) on the road, led by impressive performances by Vick. The Giants started the season beating the Panthers at home, then lost at the Colts (week 2) and at home to the Titans (week 3) before smothering the Chicago Bears at home (week 4). The Cowboys started 0-2, losing at Washington and at home to the Bears, before beating the Texans in Houston.
Now the Cowboys are back from their week 4 bye and go on an nine-week stretch that includes the Giants (weeks 7 and 10), Titans (week 5), Vikings (week 6), Packers (week 9), Saints (week 12) and Colts (week 13). Before their week 8 bye, the Eagles visit the 49ers (week 5) and Titans (week 7), and host the Atlanta Falcons (week 6). The Redskins host the Packers (week 5) and Colts (week 6) before visiting the Bears (week 7) and Lions (week 8). Before their week 8 bye, the Giants visit the state of Texas twice (Houston, week 5; Dallas, week 7) and host the Lions in-between (week 6).
All four teams have trouble with their running games. The Eagles don’t run enough, the Cowboys don’t run consistently, the Giants running backs are plagued by fumbles and the Redskins don’t have healthy enough running backs. In terms of defense, the Cowboys and Redskins generally do well, the Giants suffer from feast or famine, and the Eagles hope the offense can keep outscoring what the defense gives up.
Health also continues to be an issue: quarterback for the Eagles, running back for the Redskins, offensive line for the Cowboys, almost every position for the Giants (except for rookie punter Matt Dodge, and Giants fans might want to work him over if he doesn’t improve).
NFC North: Well, well, well... Things haven’t been going smoothly in Minnesota, have they? Brett Favre returns from ankle surgery and his version of training camp in Mississippi and finds his favorite receiver, Sidney Rice, gone for the first eight weeks after offseason hip surgery. Then after being beaten to a pulp by Saints and Dolphins pass rushers, the Vikings start 0-2 and Favre’s wondering if he made the right decision to get off his tractor and come back north for “one more season” (C’mon... Football seasons and Brett Favre are like Lays potato chips. You can’t stop at one). After beating the Lions 24-10 at home during week 3, the Vikings still needed to shore up their weaknesses during the week 4 bye.
Helloooooo Randy Moss! Yes, the Vikings sent a third-round 2011 draft pick to the Patriots for the grumpy wide receiver who grouses about a contract extension. So, for the first time since 2004, Randy Moss will wear a Vikings jersey when they visit the Jets Monday night. Will Moss help? Who knows? There will be timing and chemistry issues to work out with Favre, but on the bright side, Moss is already familiar with the Jets secondary, be it Darrelle Revis or Antonio Cromartie covering him, as they did in week 2. After the Jets, the Vikings host the Cowboys before visiting the Packers and Patriots (do you think head coach Bill Belichick has some special coverage plans in store?).
As of now, the top of this division belongs to the Packers and Bears, both 3-1. The Bears beat the Packers in week 3, then were beaten into submission by the Giants in week 4. Quarterbacks Jake Cutler and Todd Collins were both knocked out with injuries in the Giants game, but it is believed Cutler’s recovered enough from his concussion to start Sunday against the Panthers in Carolina. But the Giants game exposed the Bears offense and their considerable limitations. The offensive line is a mess with key starters injured and replacements playing out of position. Cutler very much loves Mike Martz’s new offensive scheme, but he simply doesn’t have wide receivers talented enough to fully emulate the “Greatest show on turf” act the Rams ran 1999-2003. Worse, the Bears can’t seem to run the ball with any consistency, not good for a team that plays in Chicago during the months of November and December. The Bears host the Seahawks and Redskins to round out October, perhaps an opportunity to fatten up the won-loss record against mediocre opponents, or perhaps more opportunities to expose the Bears for being a mediocre team themselves.
As for the Packers, they’ve looked good scoring points in bunches against the Eagles (week 1), Bills (week 2) and Lions (week 3). Unfortunately, they lost Ryan Grant to injury in week 1, so the running game is nonexistent. This forces quarterback Aaron Rodgers to provide all the offense, which again is not a good sign when you play in Wisconsin during the months of November and December. As good as the defense was last year, it seems to have slipped a bit so far, giving up 68 points combined to the Eagles, Bears and Lions. Next up are the Redskins, Dolphins, Vikings, Jets and Cowboys before their week 10 bye. Better hope Mr. Rodgers is ready to throw and score points early and often.
As for the 0-4 Lions, they are at least competitive, losing to the Bears (week 1), Eagles (week 2) and Packers (week 4) by a combined ten points. Now they host the very improved Rams on Sunday, and we need to wonder when the Lions have solid opportunities left to win a few games: the Redskins (week 8), Bills (week 10) and Buccaneers (week 15) are the best ones. Once again, the injury bug bit quarterback Matt Stafford, the defense still gives up too many yards and points, and the running game is anemic.
NFC South: Most folks believed if any team could repeat as champ of this division it would be the defending Super Bowls champion Saints, but a funny thing has happened along the way. Although the Saints are 3-1, the offense isn’t scoring at the explosive clip it did last year, the running game suffers, primarily from missing an injured Reggie Bush, and the defense is more vulnerable without injured safety Darren Sharper. After squeaking by the Vikings (week 1), 49ers (week 2) and Panthers (week 4), the Saints now visit the Cardinals and Buccaneers before hosting the Browns (week 7) and Steelers (week 8).
The 3-1 Atlanta Falcons have shown preseason playoff predictions to be well-founded, having beat the Cardinals, 49ers and Saints after an overtime loss at Pittsburgh in week 1. The Falcons offense shows decent balance and production from both the passing of quarterback Matt Ryan and the running of Michael Turner. The defense has only given up 60 points so far. Now the Falcons visit Cleveland and Philadelphia before hosting Cincinnati (week 7) and Tampa Bay (week 8). The Falcons have won close games (49ers, Saints) and blowouts (Cardinals). They’re relatively healthy so far, so the next four weeks are a good opportunity to stay on top of the division.
At 2-1, the Buccaneers are a pleasant surprise, beating the Browns and Panthers before the Steelers brought them down to Earth in a 38-13 week 3 home loss. Coming from their week 4 bye, the Bucs visit the Bengals (week 5), Cardinals (week 8), Falcons (week 9), 49ers (week 11) and Ravens (week 12), and host the Saints (week 6), Rams (week 7), Panthers (week 10) and Falcons (week 13). By then we should know how far these Bucs have improved from last year’s 3-13 performance. So far the defense seems to hold its own against less physical teams and second-year quarterback Josh Freeman seems more sure of himself.
At 0-4, the Carolina Panthers have lost to the Giants, Bucs, Bengals and Saints. The offense can’t seem to produce. The running game is anemic, and they’re switched quarterbacks from Matt Moore to rookie Jimmy Clausen. The defense wears down because it’s on the field too much. None of these observations bode well for head coach John Fox, who’s in the final year of his contract. In search of their first win, the Panthers host the Bears on Sunday, then host the 49ers after their week 6 bye. After that it doesn’t get a lot easier, as the Panthers visit the Rams (week 8), Bucs (week 10), Browns (week 12) and Seahawks (week 13) and host the Saints (week 9) and Ravens (week 11).
NFC West: In what was expected to be a wide-open division after the Cardinals lost Kurt Warner, Antrel Rolle, Anquan Boldin and Karlos Dansby, it’s a little surprising to see these Cardinals sharing first place. Granted the Cardinals, Seahawks and Rams are all 2-2, and the preseason favorite 49ers are 0-4. Go Figure?
Despite the Cardinals having a quarterback dilemma between mediocre Derek Anderson and rookie Max Hall, they’re managed to eke out wins over the Rams (week 1) and Raiders (week 3). However, true to a 2-2 team, the Cardinals were outscored 82-17 in week 2 and 4 stinkers at the Falcons and Chargers. Now they host the Saints before their week 6 bye. Playing the Seahawks (weeks 7 and 10) in addition to the Bucs (week 8), Vikings (week 9) and Chiefs (week 11) should give us a better idea as to what kind of team the Cardinals are... Then again, maybe it won’t.
The Seahawks seem to have new energy and focus under new head coach Pete Carroll. They’ve played spirited and explosive football in beating the 49ers (week 1) and Chargers (week 3) at home, but stunk up the joint in losses at the Broncos (week 2) and Rams (week 4). But the defense is motivated, quarterback Matt Hasselbeck seems healthy and focused, and ex-Jet Leon Washington has been a bonus at kick returner and third down back. After their week 5 bye, the Seahawks play the Cardinals twice (weeks 7 and 10) as well as the Bears (week 6), Raiders (week 8) and Giants (week 9).
Could it be that our St. Louis football team is no longer the cuddly Lamb Chops? News flash: The Rams are for real. The defense is starting to play like a Steve Spagnuolo unit and rookie quarterback Sam Bradford knows how to run an offense. It’s still a worry that the Rams need to pass so much behind a relatively weak and inexperienced offensive line, but so far, so good. After starting 0-2 with close losses to the Cardinals and Raiders, the Rams have handily beaten the Redskins (week 3) and Seahawks (week 4). Now the Rams play the Lions, Chargers, Bucs and Panthers before their week 9 bye.
In what’s been the biggest disappointment of the 2010 season so far, the 49ers have not only lost their first four games to the Seahawks, Saints, Chiefs and Falcons, they’ve lost close and by a lot. The offense can’t produce anything beyond turnovers, costing coordinator Jimmy Raye his job after a 31-10 week 3 loss in Kansas City. On the bright side, the 49ers are only two games behind the divisional leaders in what is a relatively weak division. On the bad side, the 49ers play the Eagles, Raiders, Panthers and Broncos before their week 9 bye.
Sunday, October 3, 2010
What a Baseball Season it was -- Sports Thoughts for October 4, 2010
So now the 2010 MLB regular season is over and it's time for October baseball. We've seen our share of no-hitters, almost no-hitters and no-hitters sabotaged by errant umpiring. We've seen a new shift in power numbers, lower batting averages, lower earned run averages, and wacky pennant races.
Two numbers on many minds are 54 and 13, as in the number of home runs Toronto's Jose Bautista hit this year and last. However, for all those who wish to raise the question of performance enhancing drugs, allow me to offer these numbers instead:
10 = number of home runs Bautista hit during September 2009
54 = number of home runs Bautista hit for 2010
64 = number of home runs Bautista hit since September 1, 2009
I'm not saying Bautista did or did not use steroids as part of his power surge, but I do think we need to keep in mind that he found a groove towards the end of last season and it possibly carried over. I guess we'll need to see how 2011 goes for Mr. Bautista before we jump to further conclusions. After all, the Blue Jays DID lead the majors in home runs this season with 257 and scored more than half their runs (53%) via the long ball, the first team to do so since the 2005 Texas Rangers.
One thing still holds true: If you're going to win your divisional title, you need to beat your competition better than anyone else. I'm no expert on baseball, but I do know something about divisional races and trends. Since the very beginning of the season I harped how the road to a divisional title involved having the best record against divisional opponents. Has my theory held up? For the most part, yes.
In the American League, two of our three divisional winners, Tampa Bay and Minnesota had the best records against their divisional rivals. The Rays were 42-30 against AL East opponents while the Twins were 47-25.
The Texas Rangers, winners of the AL West, were a second-best 32-25 against divisional opponents. The Los Angeles Angels were an AL West best 35-22, but finished 10 games behind the Rangers.
The wild card New York Yankees owned the third-best record against eastern division opponents, 38-34, just behind Toronto's 39-33 record within the AL East.
In the National League, the same trend generally held true for Philadelphia, Cincinnati and San Francisco. The Phillies were a NL East best 44-28 and the Reds were 49-30 against the NL Central. However, the Giants shared the same 38-34 record against NL West teams as the San Diego Padres, but managed to win the division by two games over the Padres (ironically, the Padres were 13-6 against the Giants).
The wild card Atlanta Braves had the second-best record against NL East opponents (38-34).
Speaking of the Padres and Giants, no matter how it's explained to me, I still find it odd and unnecessary to have a playoff game between these two teams in the event San Diego won yesterday (which they didn't) and Atlanta won (which they did). There was a possibility of a three-way tie for two final NL playoff berths, where the Padres, Giants and Braves would all be 91-71. Why should there be a three-way tie when only two of the teams were in the same division? Why should the Padres and Giants play one more game to determine the NL West winner when the Padres would've been 14-5 in head-to-head play during the regular season? Logic (which may not be compatible with MLB tiebreaker rules) should dictate that the NL West title go to the Padres, based on head-to-head records, then have the Giants pair off with the Braves, either in terms of head-to-head record or a tiebreaker game. In other words, the divisional champion should not have to prove itself for one more game if it already would've clinched the divisional title on the basis of head-to-head play.
For the record, Atlanta was 6-4 this season against San Francisco. If we were dealing with NFL tiebreakers, the Padres and Braves would've gotten the playoff berths based on better head-to-head records against the Giants, who would've been sitting home if they lost yesterday. Perhaps MLB needs to take a closer look at how it uses tiebreakers and play-in games before the 2011 season?
How did my post-season predictions go? With the exception of the NL West, I had seven of the eight teams correctly predicted at Labor Day, but reversed the NL East champ and wild card team. Given my successful predictions, I see no reason to change my predictions for the World Series. I still see the Rays winning the AL pennant and the Phillies winning the NL pennant for a third straight year. I still think the Rays will get their revenge for 2008 and beat the Phillies this time in the World Series. Party time on the Howard Franklin Bridge?
Since I'm already sticking with my World Series prediction of Rays over the Phillies, let me push my luck and give my predictions for MVP, Cy Young and Manager of the Year:
AL MVP: While many folks may think Rangers outfielder Josh Hamilton deserves the nod, I'm more inclined to divide the award with someone else wearing a Texas uniform. Hamilton's been hurt recently and missed 29 games. As impressive as his statistics are, I can't help but wonder where the Rangers would be without a vintage year from designated hitter Vladimir Guererro (152 games played, .300 AVG., 29 HR, 115 RBI). Yes, Hamilton sparked the Rangers takeover of first place back in June, and led the American League with a .359 batting average, 32 home runs and 100 RBI, but Guererro sustained them as the season dragged on and a double-digit lead needed to be maintained.
NL MVP: Without a doubt, Cincinnati's Joey Votto deserves the nod (.324 AVG., 37 HR, 113 RBI). Votto led the National League in on-base average, slugging percentage, as well as on-base + slugging average. Votto ranked second in batting average, third in home runs, RBI and total bases, fourth in runs scored and walked received, and was sixth in hits. Votto was clearly the driving force behind the Reds offense and climb to the post-season after a 15-year drought.
AL Cy Young: I can think of a million reasons to give the award to Seattle's Felix Hernandez... 2.27 ERA, 249.2 innings pitched, 232 strikeouts, 30 quality starts out of 34 total starts, 6 complete games, 1 shutout. But I also have a hard time overlooking Hernandez's 13-12 record. If Hernandez had a won-loss record comparable to Steve Carlton's 27-12 for the 1972 last-place Phillies (59-97), then I could justify a full vote, but when your statistics reflect minimal impact as your team's ace, it's hard to overlook. Then again, I have some doubts about giving the nod to either the Yankees C.C. Sabathia or the Rays David Price. Both only pitched two complete games, and only Price pitched a shutout. While Sabathia won more games (21 vs. 19), pitched more innings (237.2 vs. 208.2) and struck out more batters (197 vs. 188), Price was almost half a run better in ERA (2.72 vs. 3.18).
But let's take a closer look at more telling statistics for these aces... Price gave up 170 hits and 80 walks (1 intentional); Sabathia gave up 209 hits and 80 walks (6 intentional). This translates to WHIP of 0.855 for Price compared to 1.256 for Sabathia. Even more telling is that Price only gave up 4 or more earned runs three times all season. On the other hand, Sabathia gave up 4 or more earned runs seven times, including seven in a stinker against the Rays on September 23 at Yankee Stadium. While Sabathia may have won more games, Price's wins seem to count more in terms of quality.
In an ideal world, I think the award should be shared by Hernandez and Price on the basis of statistical dominance (Hernandez) and rising to the occasion as his team's ace (Price). However, if only one pitcher could win, then David Price deserves it for the full body of his 2010 season.
NL Cy Young: As against it as I was most of the past two months, I've finally capitulated to the overall body of work Philadelphia's Roy Halladay. It's very hard to overlook the composite of his 21-11 record, 2.44 ERA, 250.2 innings pitched, 219 strikeouts, 25 of 33 quality starts, 9 complete games and 4 shutouts. The Phillies rode his right arm throughout the season en route to their fourth straight NL East crown.
AL Manager of the Year: In many ways this should be the Manager Redemption Award. Ron Washington came into this season with past cocaine use hanging over his head like a cloud, not to mention financial and ownership issues in the front office. In the closest thing to a wire to wire finish, Washington guided the Rangers to their first playoff berth since 1999, clearly ending 2010 on a much more promising note than 2009. However, honorable mention should be given to Buck Showalter for the job he's done with the Baltimore Orioles since taking over July 30. On July 30 the Orioles were MLB' worst team at 31-70. Since then, the Orioles have gone 35-26, laying perhaps a foundation for a much more competitive team in 2011.
NL Manager of the Year: Again, here's a spot where I think the award needs to be shared. Where would the Reds be without Dusty Baker's guidance of a team that was predicted to be not quite ready this season? Instead, Baker guided a young team and green pitching staff to its first playoff berth since 1995. As impressive as this was, how could we overlook the job Bobby Cox did in his final season with Atlanta and the job Bruce Bochy did with an underestimated Giants roster? Call me wishy-washy, but I feel Baker, Cox and Bochy all deserve this award, and hope sportswriters will find a way to vote accordingly.
Two numbers on many minds are 54 and 13, as in the number of home runs Toronto's Jose Bautista hit this year and last. However, for all those who wish to raise the question of performance enhancing drugs, allow me to offer these numbers instead:
10 = number of home runs Bautista hit during September 2009
54 = number of home runs Bautista hit for 2010
64 = number of home runs Bautista hit since September 1, 2009
I'm not saying Bautista did or did not use steroids as part of his power surge, but I do think we need to keep in mind that he found a groove towards the end of last season and it possibly carried over. I guess we'll need to see how 2011 goes for Mr. Bautista before we jump to further conclusions. After all, the Blue Jays DID lead the majors in home runs this season with 257 and scored more than half their runs (53%) via the long ball, the first team to do so since the 2005 Texas Rangers.
One thing still holds true: If you're going to win your divisional title, you need to beat your competition better than anyone else. I'm no expert on baseball, but I do know something about divisional races and trends. Since the very beginning of the season I harped how the road to a divisional title involved having the best record against divisional opponents. Has my theory held up? For the most part, yes.
In the American League, two of our three divisional winners, Tampa Bay and Minnesota had the best records against their divisional rivals. The Rays were 42-30 against AL East opponents while the Twins were 47-25.
The Texas Rangers, winners of the AL West, were a second-best 32-25 against divisional opponents. The Los Angeles Angels were an AL West best 35-22, but finished 10 games behind the Rangers.
The wild card New York Yankees owned the third-best record against eastern division opponents, 38-34, just behind Toronto's 39-33 record within the AL East.
In the National League, the same trend generally held true for Philadelphia, Cincinnati and San Francisco. The Phillies were a NL East best 44-28 and the Reds were 49-30 against the NL Central. However, the Giants shared the same 38-34 record against NL West teams as the San Diego Padres, but managed to win the division by two games over the Padres (ironically, the Padres were 13-6 against the Giants).
The wild card Atlanta Braves had the second-best record against NL East opponents (38-34).
Speaking of the Padres and Giants, no matter how it's explained to me, I still find it odd and unnecessary to have a playoff game between these two teams in the event San Diego won yesterday (which they didn't) and Atlanta won (which they did). There was a possibility of a three-way tie for two final NL playoff berths, where the Padres, Giants and Braves would all be 91-71. Why should there be a three-way tie when only two of the teams were in the same division? Why should the Padres and Giants play one more game to determine the NL West winner when the Padres would've been 14-5 in head-to-head play during the regular season? Logic (which may not be compatible with MLB tiebreaker rules) should dictate that the NL West title go to the Padres, based on head-to-head records, then have the Giants pair off with the Braves, either in terms of head-to-head record or a tiebreaker game. In other words, the divisional champion should not have to prove itself for one more game if it already would've clinched the divisional title on the basis of head-to-head play.
For the record, Atlanta was 6-4 this season against San Francisco. If we were dealing with NFL tiebreakers, the Padres and Braves would've gotten the playoff berths based on better head-to-head records against the Giants, who would've been sitting home if they lost yesterday. Perhaps MLB needs to take a closer look at how it uses tiebreakers and play-in games before the 2011 season?
How did my post-season predictions go? With the exception of the NL West, I had seven of the eight teams correctly predicted at Labor Day, but reversed the NL East champ and wild card team. Given my successful predictions, I see no reason to change my predictions for the World Series. I still see the Rays winning the AL pennant and the Phillies winning the NL pennant for a third straight year. I still think the Rays will get their revenge for 2008 and beat the Phillies this time in the World Series. Party time on the Howard Franklin Bridge?
Since I'm already sticking with my World Series prediction of Rays over the Phillies, let me push my luck and give my predictions for MVP, Cy Young and Manager of the Year:
AL MVP: While many folks may think Rangers outfielder Josh Hamilton deserves the nod, I'm more inclined to divide the award with someone else wearing a Texas uniform. Hamilton's been hurt recently and missed 29 games. As impressive as his statistics are, I can't help but wonder where the Rangers would be without a vintage year from designated hitter Vladimir Guererro (152 games played, .300 AVG., 29 HR, 115 RBI). Yes, Hamilton sparked the Rangers takeover of first place back in June, and led the American League with a .359 batting average, 32 home runs and 100 RBI, but Guererro sustained them as the season dragged on and a double-digit lead needed to be maintained.
NL MVP: Without a doubt, Cincinnati's Joey Votto deserves the nod (.324 AVG., 37 HR, 113 RBI). Votto led the National League in on-base average, slugging percentage, as well as on-base + slugging average. Votto ranked second in batting average, third in home runs, RBI and total bases, fourth in runs scored and walked received, and was sixth in hits. Votto was clearly the driving force behind the Reds offense and climb to the post-season after a 15-year drought.
AL Cy Young: I can think of a million reasons to give the award to Seattle's Felix Hernandez... 2.27 ERA, 249.2 innings pitched, 232 strikeouts, 30 quality starts out of 34 total starts, 6 complete games, 1 shutout. But I also have a hard time overlooking Hernandez's 13-12 record. If Hernandez had a won-loss record comparable to Steve Carlton's 27-12 for the 1972 last-place Phillies (59-97), then I could justify a full vote, but when your statistics reflect minimal impact as your team's ace, it's hard to overlook. Then again, I have some doubts about giving the nod to either the Yankees C.C. Sabathia or the Rays David Price. Both only pitched two complete games, and only Price pitched a shutout. While Sabathia won more games (21 vs. 19), pitched more innings (237.2 vs. 208.2) and struck out more batters (197 vs. 188), Price was almost half a run better in ERA (2.72 vs. 3.18).
But let's take a closer look at more telling statistics for these aces... Price gave up 170 hits and 80 walks (1 intentional); Sabathia gave up 209 hits and 80 walks (6 intentional). This translates to WHIP of 0.855 for Price compared to 1.256 for Sabathia. Even more telling is that Price only gave up 4 or more earned runs three times all season. On the other hand, Sabathia gave up 4 or more earned runs seven times, including seven in a stinker against the Rays on September 23 at Yankee Stadium. While Sabathia may have won more games, Price's wins seem to count more in terms of quality.
In an ideal world, I think the award should be shared by Hernandez and Price on the basis of statistical dominance (Hernandez) and rising to the occasion as his team's ace (Price). However, if only one pitcher could win, then David Price deserves it for the full body of his 2010 season.
NL Cy Young: As against it as I was most of the past two months, I've finally capitulated to the overall body of work Philadelphia's Roy Halladay. It's very hard to overlook the composite of his 21-11 record, 2.44 ERA, 250.2 innings pitched, 219 strikeouts, 25 of 33 quality starts, 9 complete games and 4 shutouts. The Phillies rode his right arm throughout the season en route to their fourth straight NL East crown.
AL Manager of the Year: In many ways this should be the Manager Redemption Award. Ron Washington came into this season with past cocaine use hanging over his head like a cloud, not to mention financial and ownership issues in the front office. In the closest thing to a wire to wire finish, Washington guided the Rangers to their first playoff berth since 1999, clearly ending 2010 on a much more promising note than 2009. However, honorable mention should be given to Buck Showalter for the job he's done with the Baltimore Orioles since taking over July 30. On July 30 the Orioles were MLB' worst team at 31-70. Since then, the Orioles have gone 35-26, laying perhaps a foundation for a much more competitive team in 2011.
NL Manager of the Year: Again, here's a spot where I think the award needs to be shared. Where would the Reds be without Dusty Baker's guidance of a team that was predicted to be not quite ready this season? Instead, Baker guided a young team and green pitching staff to its first playoff berth since 1995. As impressive as this was, how could we overlook the job Bobby Cox did in his final season with Atlanta and the job Bruce Bochy did with an underestimated Giants roster? Call me wishy-washy, but I feel Baker, Cox and Bochy all deserve this award, and hope sportswriters will find a way to vote accordingly.
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