Preview of NFL 2010 Season - Sports Thoughts for September 7, 2010

The 2010 NFL regular season begins Thursday night in New Orleans (Vikings-Saints). I’ve done my research, listened to the experts, watched my share of pre-season game footage, and now I’m ready to offer my predictions and analysis. Unlike the experts, I don’t plan to predict won-loss records. With a few exceptions, the NFL season and schedule is designed so the majority of teams will finish between 7-9 and 10-6, almost like a giant bell curve, hence the concept of parity. For many teams, a few plays here or there could mean the difference between finishing 12-4 or 6-10, and as we’ve all seen through the years, an 8-8 team can win its divisional title in a weak division, just as an 11-5 team could still miss the playoffs in a highly competitive conference.

As I’ve thought about each team, each division, and both conferences, my predictions and analyses are based on four factors:
1. Health and depth of the offensive line.
2. Balance between passing and rushing attacks.
3. Scheme and effectiveness of defense.
4. Team schedules.

American Conference:
Let me be the first to admit that I’ve been a New York Jets fan since 1966, bleed Jets Green, and still have fond memories freezing my ass off at Shea Stadium watching games in November and December, while losing my hearing due to planes flying overhead from nearby LaGuardia Airport. So, any year my Jets have a chance to be a Super Bowl contender is a good one for me. Does this mean I believe the Jets are a lock to represent the AFC at Dallas Cowboys Stadium on February 6, 2011? No... A lot of good fortune needs to take place between now and then for this to become reality, but at least I have optimism.

That being said, who are the teams we should pay close attention to this season as potential Super Bowl representatives? From the eastern division there are the Jets and New England Patriots. From the northern division there are the Baltimore Ravens, and from the southern division there are the defending AFC champs, the Indianapolis Colts who lost Super Bowl XLIV, 31-17, to the Saints in Miami this past February. Are there dark horses to pay attention to? Perhaps we can keep an eye on the Cincinnati Bengals and Pittsburgh Steelers (northern division), Houston Texans and Tennessee Titans (southern) and San Diego Chargers (western), but when you finish reading my divisional synopses, you’ll begrudgingly agree that the discussion likely stops with the Colts, Jets, Patriots, and Ravens. Who will make it to Dallas? Only the fates know...

AFC Eastern Division:
I begin in what could be the wildest, most intense, entertaining and antagonistic divisional race between the Jets and Patriots. Both teams clearly hate each other, as declared by Patriots’ quarterback Tom Brady, and both meetings (September 19 at New Meadowlands Stadium, December 6 in Foxboro, MA) promise to have lots of electricity and hard hits. While the Patriots have won 6 of the past 7 divisional titles since the Jets won the east in 2002, the Jets are ready to back up their bluster and make good on head coach Rex Ryan’s vision of visiting the White House during the Obama administration. While no one should overlook the Miami Dolphins (2008 division champs), clearly this division’s supremacy resides somewhere between East Rutherford and Foxboro.

Looking at the health and depth of each team’s offensive lines, there are question marks for the Jets, Patriots, Dolphins and Buffalo Bills. One major change on the Jets’ line is at left guard, where second-year man Matt Slauson takes over for veteran Alan Faneca (now an Arizona Cardinal). On the bright side, Slauson plays in between All-Pro center Nick Mangold and All-Pro left tackle D’Brickishaw Ferguson. On the down side, Slauson is still learning pass blocking schemes and plays on quarterback Mark Sanchez’s blind side. If Slauson fails to block his man, it puts undo pressure on Ferguson and Mangold, and makes Sanchez a potential sitting duck. What I’ve observed so far this preseason is that the Jets run block better than anyone else in the NFL (they led the NFL in rushing last season), but the pass blocking still needs tightening up if the Jets plan to keep Sanchez in one piece and open up their passing attack.

The Patriots also have a recently filled vacancy on their offensive line, with Dan Connolly replacing holdout Logan Mankins, who appears hell-bent on sitting out the regular season until either owner Bob Kraft offers him a desired contract, or Mankins turns blue and keels over from holding his breath (I’d put my money on the latter). As for the Dolphins, their offensive line will have rookie John Jerry at right guard. The Bills, with new head coach Chan Gailey, need to develop a cohesive offensive line (three starters are only in their second year of NFL experience) that can consistently keep any of their quarterbacks in one piece.

As goes an offensive line, so goes a team’s passing attack. With change brings inconsistent pass protection and passing. Nowhere is this more evident than with the Jets, as quarterback Mark Sanchez tries to prevent any sophomore jinx as well as a repeat of careless mistakes like passing into double and triple coverage, telegraphing passes, poor ball protection, and failing to go through all check-down progressions. Now that I’ve replayed Sanchez’s preseason performance, let’s see how he grows and thrives with wide receiver Braylon Edwards for a full season, and newcomers Santonio Holmes (receiver suspended for games 1-4) and running back L’Danian Tomlinson. The Jets may be a “ground and pound” team, but don’t expect to see them rush the ball 600 times against like last season, not with all these receiving weapons for Sanchez to deploy. However, the key to success for the Jets passing game may be Dustin Keller. I’m a first believer that a quarterback’s best friend is a reliable tight end, especially on third down. Get used to saying “Sanchez to Keller” often as the season progresses.

For the Patriots, all aspects of their passing attack revolves around quarterback Tom Brady, now entering his tenth season running the offense. At his disposal are a motivated Randy Moss (now in his final contract season), a recovered Wes Welker, and an emerging Julian Edelman as his wide receivers. Brady may have a new best friend in former Falcons and Titans tight end Alge Crumpler. The Patriots lack experienced depth beyond Moss, Welker, Crumpler and Edelman, so if Brady is going to build on his comeback season of 2009, he’s going to need his receivers to stay health and hungry all season long. The Patriots do not have a powerful rushing attack, although it showed improvement during the preseason, so how far the Patriots go this season will depend on how well they travel by air.

For the Dolphins, this year is supposed to be the official start of the Chad Henne era. Unfortunately, Henne’s been very inconsistent this pre-season, and unless he can put it together consistently, don’t be surprised if head coach Tony Sparano turns to trusty and wily Chad Pennington (back from his third shoulder operation) to play pitch and catch with new wide receiver Brandon Marshall and tight end Anthony Fasano. If only the Dolphins had more depth and experience in their receiving corps. The Dolphins are primarily a rushing team, not only because of running back talents Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams, but because the passing attack has yet to strike fear in opposing defenses. The Dolphins won the AFC East in 2008 mostly with smoke and mirrors (not to mention a confounding Wildcat formation), but the plan was for Henne’s rifle arm to lead the charge in 2010. If Henne can’t and Pennington is the man, the Dolphins will rely way too much on a rushing and Wildcat scheme.

For the Bills, Chan Gailey needs to figure out if Trent Edwards is his quarterback for the future. Or maybe it’s Ryan Fitzpatrick. Or maybe it’s Jeff Bohm. Or maybe Chan better stick to a rushing attack. To say Buffalo’s cupboard is bare is an understatement. The running game essentially starts and ends with rookie C.J. Spiller, and the receiving corps is a list of no-names after Lee Evans.

Offense may score points and puts fans in the seats, but defense wins championships, and that’s what Rex Ryan’s banking on with his Jets. Unfortunately, cornerback Darrelle Revis held out all of the preseason in a contract dispute, and linebacker and 2009 sacks leader Calvin Pace could be out for up to six weeks with a broken foot. The Jets were 2009’s best defensive unit in terms of pass defense, total defense and points allowed. Can the Jets repeat this lofty standard without Revis and/or Pace for extended periods of time? Anything is possible when considering Ryan’s attack and plunder scheme, but it would be more certain if Revis and Pace were both on the field starting September 13. As it is, the Revis holdout has ended and he’ll be in uniform for the opener this coming Monday night. On the other hand, Pace will not be in the lineup, so 14-year veteran Jason Taylor (former Dolphins linebacker), ninth-year linebacker Bryan Thomas and linebacker-turned-defensive Vernon Gholston will need to pick up the slack in Pace’s absence.

Is there a precedent for success without key components on a defensive unit? Sure... Look at the 1985 Chicago Bears and their monster defense. Folks may forget those Bears led the NFL in defense in 1984, then lost safety Todd Bell and linebacker Al Harris for all of 1985 because of contract disputes. As we know, the Bears stormed through the league to an 18-1 record and won Super Bowl XX. Did the Bears have their lapses? Sure did, especially losing their only game to the Dolphins on a Monday night in Miami, 38-24. But those lapses were blips on the radar. My point is that it’s not impossible for the Jets to remain a dominant defense without Revis and/or Pace, or even go all the way to the Super Bowl, but opposing offensive coordinators would sleep a lot worse if the Jets had Revis and Pace on the field. Also, let’s not forget that Pace missed the first four games of last year for testing positive for a banned substance, nose tackle Kris Jenkins missed the last ten games after a knee injury, and the Jets defense still lead the league in fewest points, total yards and passing yards allowed.

The Patriots better hope Tom Brady and the offense have a revival of their 2007-vintage performance if they expect to be in the playoffs and go further than last year’s first-round blowout loss to the Baltimore Ravens. Why? Their defense has nowhere near the talent or experience compared to that 2007 team. Gone are all the veterans from their Super Bowl-era defensive unit, and aside from a veteran front line anchored by Vince Wilfork, young linebackers and defensive backs who haven’t played together long enough make for an inconsistent and potentially porous unit. When the Patriots outscored opponents at a record pace in 2007, they ran through a 16-0 regular season by double-digit margins. If the Patriots hope to win at least ten games this year, they’ll need to score plenty just to be on the right side of the final score.

The Dolphins’ defense has strength, speed, talent, and a good blend experienced veterans with youth. Perhaps the key to this year’s defensive success will be the inside linebacker tandem of Channing Crowder and newcomer Karlos Dansby, formerly of the Arizona Cardinals. Keep in mind the Dolphins’ roster is constructed and molded by Executive Vice President of Football Operations Bill Parcells. Everywhere The Tuna’s been (Giants, Patriots, Jets, Cowboys, Dolphins), his rosters have “Parcells guys.” They play solid fundamental defense, if not dominant. New defensive coordinator Mike Nolan should make a big impact. The Dolphins will need a Parcells-level performance by its defense in order to keep them in games this season. The Dolphins are hardly an offensive juggernaut, so they need lots of close low-scoring games to stay in the playoff hunt.

As for the Bills, defense will also be their best unit and hope for staying competitive. Like the Jets, Patriots and Dolphins, the Bills also employ a 3-4 base defense that hybridizes into a 4-3 unit for many passing downs. Unfortunately, the Bills lack sufficient offensive talent to take any stress off their defense, and this will ultimately doom them to another last-place finish.

As for the battle for divisional supremacy, a lot will depend on how the Jets, Patriots and Dolphins fare in terms of lineup continuity and season schedule. The Jets play six games against 2009 playoff teams while the Patriots and Dolphins each play eight. All three teams play just one road game more than one time zone travel: the Jets at Denver October 17 (bye Oct. 24), New England at San Diego October 24 (bye Oct. 10), Miami at Oakland November 28 (bye Oct. 10). For the Jets, their schedule gauntlet begins immediately: hosting Baltimore and the Patriots September 13 and 19, then hosting Houston and Cincinnati November 21 and 25, followed by visiting the Patriots December 6, hosting the Dolphins December 12, and visiting Pittsburgh and Chicago December 19 and 26.

The Patriots’ gauntlet also begins immediately: Hosting Cincinnati September 12, visiting the Jets and Dolphins September 19 and October 4, hosting Baltimore and Minnesota October 17 and 31, with their October 24 trip to San Diego in-between. November 14 brings a visit to Pittsburgh, followed by hosting Indianapolis on the 21.

The Dolphins’ gauntlet begins with a visit to Minnesota on September 19, followed by prime-time home games against the Jets and Patriots (Sept. 26 and Oct. 4). Then they play five consecutive games against playoff-caliber opponents: at Green Bay (Oct. 17), hosting Pittsburgh (Oct. 24), at Cincinnati and Baltimore (Oct. 31 and Nov. 7), then finally hosting Tennessee November 14. If the Dolphins can make it through November, they’ll have visits to the Jets December 12 and the Patriots January 2 to look forward to.

Predicted order of finish:
1. Jets
2. Patriots
3. Dolphins
4. Bills

AFC Northern Division:
When it comes to this division, the stories really are all about quarterbacks and passing attacks. Even with the loss of right tackle Willie Colon to an off-season Achilles tendon injury and starting rookie Maurkice Pouncey at center, the Pittsburgh Steelers still have enough talent and strength up-front to protect the quarterback and open up holes for their running backs. The question, however, is who will quarterback the Steelers while Ben Roethlisberger serves a four-game suspension for inappropriate conduct with women. Eight-year veteran Byron Leftwich was supposed to step into the role until he injured his knee in a freak collision during the pre-season finale against Carolina. This leaves third-year man Dennis Dixon and 13-year veteran Charlie Batch. Dixon is younger, mobile and has a strong arm, but he’s still as green as old University of Oregon jersey. Batch is older, wiser and OLDER. Odds are Dixon will run the offense until Big Ben returns October 17th against Cleveland, or until he flounders enough to take Batch out of cobwebs, or Leftwich can play effectively without pain. Until October 17, the objective for the Steelers offense is maximize their rushing attack with Rashard Mendenhall and pass the ball effectively to wide receivers Mike Wallace and Hines Ward.

On the other hand, both the Cincinnati Bengals and Baltimore Ravens are starting the season with their first-string signal callers, Carson Palmer and Joe Flacco, respectfully. Like the Steelers, the Bengals and Ravens not only have solid offensive lines, reliable running attacks and big-play wide receivers. The Bengals will pound away at defenses with running back Cedric Benson and stretch further with wide receivers Terrell Owens and Chad Ochocinco. The Ravens have their own backfield ramrod in Ray Rice and a receiving corps of Anquan Boldin (formerly of the Cardinals), 14-year veteran Derrick Mason and 10-year veteran tight end Todd Heap. Additionally, the Ravens have depth in both the backfield with Willis Magahee, and at wide receiver with Donte Stallworth and T. J. Houshmandzadeh (recently released by Seattle).

Area of concern #1: Bengals quarterback Carson Palmer. Palmer suffered a major knee injury during the 2005 playoffs, and missed most of the 2008 season due to a cranky elbow. The Bengals passing game eventually became a nonfactor towards the end of last season, and questions arose about Palmer’s overall health. During the preseason those questions came up again as Palmer didn’t consistently look comfortable in the pocket. With two vocal wide outs like Owens and Ochocinco screaming for the ball, the Bengals cannot afford to have an injured Palmer struggling to pass downfield.

Area of concern #2: Ravens safety Ed Reed. When healthy, Reed is still a ball-hawking presence in the defensive backfield. But Reed is now 31, entering his ninth season, and is out for the first six games while recovering from off-season hip surgery. As talented and deep as the Ravens defense is, could his absence be a major disadvantage when the Ravens play the Jets, Bengals, Steelers, Denver Broncos, and Patriots during his stay on the Reserve-Physically Unable to Perform list?

Area of concern #3: Ben Roethlisberger. While the Steelers need to make-do without their starting quarterback for the first four games, how out of rhythm will the offense be after he returns? While serving suspension, Roethlisberger can only attend team meetings. He cannot practice or train at team facilities until after October 3rd. Will the October 10th bye week be enough time to reacquaint him with the rest of the offensive unit?

Area of concern #4: Steelers safety Troy Palamalu. Coming off major knee surgery last season, can he stay healthy for an entire season?

When it comes to defense, the Ravens are among the league’s elite units, still led by middle linebacker Ray Lewis. The Ravens defense is a blend of young and veteran hard hitters, so opposing offenses know they’re in for a battle. The Bengals also have a good defense, but they’re also vulnerable to big plays and physical offenses, as the Jets exposed in last year’s regular season finale and the first round of the playoffs. The Steelers are always known for good physical defensive units. However, last year’s defense blew five fourth-quarter leads, a primary reason for a 9-7 record. From what I watched so far during the preseason, the Steelers defense is still physical, but last year’s troubles reared their ugly head again — sloppy tackling, over-aggressive mistakes, dumb personal foul penalties, and giving up the big play.

This brings us to the Cleveland Browns, in their second year under head coach Eric Mangini, but first under team president Mike Holmgren (former head coach/GM at Green Bay and Seattle). However, this season will involve a hybrid of two football philosophies: the Mangini philosophy, derived from Bill Parcells and Bill Bellichik, and the Holmgren philosophy, derived from the late Bill Walsh. Last year the Browns started out 1-11 before closing out with four straight wins. Mangini and Holmgren both have solid visions of how to rebuild the Browns into a winning franchise. The question remains if there’s enough talent to keep the team improving. Last year’s quarterback tandem of Brady Quinn (now in Denver) and Derek Anderson (now in Arizona) is replaced by 12-year veteran Jake Delhomme (released by Carolina), veteran back-up Seneca Wallace (traded from Seattle) and rookie Colt McCoy (possibly the quarterback for the future). Aside from James Harrison, the Browns are thin at running back. Aside from wideouts Josh Cribbs and Bobby Engram, and tight end Ben Watson, the receiving corps are just as thin and inexperienced. The Browns offensive line is very young at center, right guard and left tackle. On defense, the Browns are mostly a veteran unit, but start a rookie at strong safety, T.J Ward.

On the bright side, besides leadership from the tandem of Mangini and Holmgren, the Browns play all of their games in the eastern time zone. The bad news is that they play 11 games against teams finishing .500 of better in 2009, including seven against 2009 playoff teams. There will be days when the Browns show marked improvement, and days Mangini and Holmgren might want to escape to another time zone... Without the team.

The Bengals start defending their 2009 divisional title opening at New England September 12 and hosting the Ravens September 19. But their true schedule gauntlet doesn’t hit until Halloween, when they host the Dolphins October 31 and Steelers November 8. During the last eight weeks, the Bengals are at Indianapolis (Nov. 14), the Jets (Nov. 25), Pittsburgh (Dec. 12) and Baltimore (Jan. 2), while hosting the Saints (Dec. 5) and San Diego (Dec. 26).

The Ravens start their season on the road four of the first six weeks: at the Jets (Sept. 13), Bengals (Sept. 19), Steelers (Oct. 3) and Patriots (Oct. 17). They have home games against Denver (Oct. 10), Miami (Nov. 7), the Steelers (Dec. 5), Saints (Dec. 19) and Bengals (Jan. 3). They also visit Atlanta (Nov. 11) and Houston (Dec. 13).

After their first four games without Roethlisberger, the Steelers play a tough stretch of eight games during a ten-week span: at Miami, New Orleans and Cincinnati (Oct. 24 and 31, Nov. 8), the Patriots at home (Nov. 14), at the Ravens (Dec. 5), then Cincinnati, the Jets and Carolina at home (Dec. 12, 19 and 23).

Predicted order of finish:
1. Ravens
2. Bengals
3. Steelers
4. Browns

AFC Southern Division:
On paper, this is the one division without much debate regarding the expected champion. Since divisional realignment in 2002, the Indianapolis Colts have made the playoffs all eight seasons, winning six divisional titles, two conference titles and Super Bowl XL. The Colts have four time league MVP quarterback Peyton Manning and... Heck, when you have Peyton Manning, that’s all you need, right?

Well, not necessarily so. While the one constant for the Colts since 1998 has been Manning, this is a team in semi-flux and with question marks. For the first time in his professional career, Manning must work with a new offensive coordinator and offensive line coach. Retired are Tom Moore and Howard Mudd, replaced by Clyde Christensen and Pete Metzelaars, respectively. The offensive line may be missing All-Pro center Jeff Saturday. While the Colts enjoy one of the NFL’s best receiving corps of Reggie Wayne, Austin Collie, Pierre Garcon, a healthy Anthony Gonzalez, and tight end Dallas Clark, it remains to be seen how well the Colts’ quick strike no-huddle offense will work this season with new rule changes affecting when the ball can be snapped and where the umpire will be positioned. There’s also the question as to how a team with running backs Joseph Addai and Donald Brown can consistently rank among the NFL’s worst rushing attacks.

Questions about the Colts defense always seem to revolve around players’ health and roster depth. The Colts have lots of speed and hard hitters on the other side of the ball, but this also leaves several players injury-prone, such as strong safety Bob Sanders, defensive end Dwight Freeney, and linebacker Gary Brackett.

On one hand, we might expect the law of averages to catch up to the Colts and put their hold on the division in jeopardy. On the other hand, we are left to wonder if the Houston Texans are finally ready to take the next step in their growth progression, if the Tennessee Titans are ready to re-join the AFC’s elite after a Jekyll and Hyde 2009, or if the Jacksonville Jaguars can legitimately compete against the rest of the division.

The Texans finally made it over the .500 hump last year, winning their final four games to finish 9-7. Is this season the year they go a little further and make the playoffs? The Texans have one of the NFL’s best passing attacks, lead by quarterback Matt Schaub and wide receiver Andre Johnson. Unfortunately, they need much more from the rushing attack (Steve Slaton and Ryan Moats combined for 827 total yards on 232 carries in 2009, scoring seven touchdowns). Johnson caught 101 passes for 1,569 yards and nine touchdowns last season, but that was eight more receptions than the second and third-best receivers had combined. Schaub was sacked 25 times last season, the offense committed as many turnovers as the defense created, and Kris Brown missed more than one-third of his field goal attempts. Most critically for 2010, last year’s defensive rookie of the year, linebacker Brian Cushing, will miss the first four games while suspended for testing positive for performance enhancing drugs.

For the Titans, the questions are many. First, which Titans team will we see in 2010 — the team that started last season 0-6, including a 59-0 humiliation at New England, or the team that finished 8-2? Second, which Vince Young will we see — the quarterback who won back his starting job during the last ten games of 2009, or the emotionally fragile train wreck who lost his job after three games in 2008? Third, can the Titans offense generate enough from their passing attack to balance a potent rushing attack, led by Chris Johnson (2,006 yards last season, sixth person to rush for 2,000 yards in a single season), or will the Titans offensive game plan focus on Johnson’s prediction for 2,500 yards? Fourth, will age finally catch up with the Titans offensive and defensive lines? Fifth, will the offense be forced to into shootouts because the defense will likely continue its decline since 2008? Last, with ten games against opponents who finished .500 or better in 2009, can the Titans improve upon last year’s 3-7 record?

The Jaguars simply lack talented players and depth at too many positions. The jury is still out on quarterback David Garrard leading an offense that’s essentially running back Maurice Jones-Drew and little else. The defense is also short of impact name players and overachieved last season until their lack of talent and depth finally caught up with them during a 1-5 (outscored 145-91) stretch to close the season at 7-9.

For the Texans and Titans, the best route towards winning the division is to finally beat Indianapolis (the Colts were 6-0 within the division last season). To make the playoffs as a wild card team, both the Texans and Titans need to beat the good teams outside their division. The Texans host the Colts September 12 and visit them November 1. The Titans host the Colts December 9 and finish the regular season at Indianapolis January 2. In between, the Texans and Titans play each other November 28 and December 19.

The Texans host San Diego November 7 and Baltimore December 13. They visit Oakland October 3 (only road game more than one time zone away) and the Jets November 21. The Titans host the Steelers September 19 and Denver October 3. They visit San Diego October 31 for their only road game more than one time zone away. For the Jaguars, the first six weeks of the season bring Denver (Sept. 12), Philadelphia (Sept. 26), Indianapolis (Oct. 3) and Tennessee (Oct. 18) to Jacksonville. They play at San Diego September 19 (their only multi-time zone road game).

The Colts don’t experience their schedule gauntlet until November, hosting the Texans (Nov. 1), the Bengals (Nov. 14), San Diego (Nov. 28) and Dallas (Dec. 5). They’re at Philadelphia November 7, New England November 21, and the Titans December 9. Their only multi-time zone road game is in Oakland on December 26. If the Colts are in vintage form, their playoff spot may already be clinched beforehand.

Predicted order of finish:
1. Colts
2. Texans
3. Titans
4. Jaguars

AFC Western Division:
Tell me if you’ve heard this before: the San Diego Chargers will win the AFC West by default, because none of the other divisional teams have enough talent to legitimately challenge them. Yes, unfortunately, this sums up the AFC West. Even though the Chargers might’ve slipped a bit and lost some talent since last season, the Denver Broncos, Oakland Raiders and Kansas City Chiefs simply haven’t improved enough to overtake them... YET. We all remember the 2009 Chargers: lots of offensive weapons led by quarterback Philip Rivers, a solid bend-but-don’t-break defense led by linebacker Shawne Merriman, a 13-3 regular season, winning their fourth straight divisional title (fifth in six years) by five games over the Broncos... Then losing their first playoff game at home to the Jets, 17-14. Same old Chargers... Kings of the west, lots of regular season sparkle followed by postseason fizzle. So... Why should this season be any different than all other seasons? (Hmmm... That question has a familiar ring to it)

Chances are 2010 for the AFC West will play out very similar to 2009. Maybe the margin between first place and second will be a little tighter, but the standings will likely remain unchanged. The Chargers offense still has Rivers at quarterback, but his surrounding weapons have changed dramatically since last season. Gone is future hall of fame running back L’Danian Tomlinson. Wide receiver Vincent Jackson is an extended holdout with odds increasing he will sit out the 2010 season (Ironically, Jackson’s agents are also Darrelle Revis’ agents). Tomlinson’s place will be taken by rookie Ryan Matthews (drafted in first round out of Fresno State); veteran Darren Sproles will back up Matthews. Antonio Gates is still an All-Pro tight end, backed up by former Dolphin Randy McMichael. The Chargers recently traded for wide receiver Patrick Crayton from the Dallas Cowboys. It remains to be seen how long it takes for Rivers and his new mates to develop chemistry. The Chargers are notorious for slow starts (they were 2-3 before going on an 11-game winning streak to close the 2009 regular season), so if history is any indicator, the Chargers offense may not completely click until their October 24 home meeting with the Patriots.

The Chargers 3-4 defense is a mostly veteran group with heavy hitters like Merriman, fellow outside linebacker Shaun Philips and cornerback Quentin Jammer. Gone is Antonio Cromartie, now playing opposite Darrelle Revis at corner for the Jets. Antoine Cason now plays opposite Jammer. The hope is that the Chargers will have a more physical defense that’s better capable of tackling. The Jets exposed how soft the Chargers defense was during last year’s playoffs, so it remains to be seen whether a few changes make a difference.

Given their history of slow starts, the first six weeks of the schedule is kind to the Chargers. Hosting the Cardinals October 3 is their only game against a .500 or better team from 2009, although they do visit the Chiefs and Raiders September 13 and October 10. After hosting the Patriots in week seven, the Chargers host the Titans October 31 and visit the Texans November 7 before their bye week. Then things do get more challenging... Hosting the Broncos (Nov. 22), visiting the Colts (Nov. 28), three straight home games against the Raiders, Chiefs and San Francisco 49ers (Dec. 5, 12 and 19), then finishing at the Bengals (Dec. 26) and Broncos (Jan. 2).

Travel could also be a factor. The Chargers play five road games more than one time zone away, the most in the division and tied for the league’s most with the 49ers. The Broncos play four such road games, the Raiders three and the Chiefs two.

As for the Broncos, this is year two of the Josh McDaniels, and for his sake the team needs to do much better than last year’s 8-8 season. Like the Titans, the Broncos were a tale of two teams, but in reverse order. There were the 6-0 Broncos who won close and exciting games, and there were the 2-8 Broncos who limped towards mediocrity. Which Broncos team will we see in 2010? Gone are last year’s top two receivers, wideout Brandon Marshall (now in Miami) and tight end Tony Scheffler (now in Detroit). With the exception of veteran Jabbar Gaffney, the receiving corps are a collection of no-names. The running game is supposed to revolve around Knowshon Moreno, but he’s been injured during the preseason (veteran Correll Buckhalter is his backup). The offensive line starts rookies at center (J.D. Walton, third-round pick from Baylor) and at left guard (Zane Beadles, second-round pick from Utah). Kyle Orton remains the starting quarterback, but first-round draft pick Tim Tebow waits in the wings, representing the future. No mater who the quarterback is, he’s a potentially sitting duck behind an offensive line trying to gel together as a unit.

The Broncos defense has a good blend of veterans, led by nose tackle Jamal Williams, cornerback Champ Bailey and strong safety Brian Dawkins. Losing outside linebacker Elvis Dumervil for the season due to a torn pectoral muscle (he’s now on injured reserve) will hurt tremendously. Somewhere in their 3-4 scheme the Broncos need to make up for Dumervil’s 17 sacks in 2009. From what I saw during the preseason, the Broncos defense is very overmatched against the run, wears down easily, and the secondary is susceptible to being burnt by long passes. This is a carryover from 2009 when the Broncos lost eight of their final ten games. Given the lack of depth at the offensive skill positions, the Broncos defense cannot afford high-scoring shootouts. In order to be competitive, the Broncos need to keep games close like they did the first six games of 2009.

As for their schedule, the month of October could make or break the Broncos. After hosting the Colts September 26, they visit the Titans and Ravens October 3 and 10, host the Jets and Raiders (Oct. 17 and 24), then play the 49ers October 31 in the annual NFL game at London’s Wembley Stadium. After their bye on November 7, the Broncos still have away and home games with the Chargers (Nov. 22 and Jan. 2), visit the Raiders December 19 and host the Texans December 26.

For the first time in several years, there’s optimism in Oakland despite the Raiders 39-83 record since losing Super Bowl XXXVII. After seven consecutive losing seasons folks see hope for a return to winning form. Gone is quarterback JeMarcus Russell, replaced by former Washington Redskin Jason Campbell. Wide receivers Darrius Heyward-Bey and Louis Murphy are entering their second season together, Darren McFadden is now the featured running back and Zach Miller is a solid and reliable tight end.

But Raider quarterbacks were sacked 49 times last season, the Raiders were 31st out of 32 NFL teams in scoring and total offensive yards, and Campbell has already been banged up during the preseason. The offensive line, mostly a veteran group, is anchored by left guard Robert Gallery, but rookie Jared Veldheer, a third-round pick from Division II Hillsdale College of Michigan is the new center after beating out fourth-year veteran Samson Satele. The onus is on this offensive line to protect their quarterback so he has time to pass and create better running opportunities for McFadden. Of course, ball protection and team discipline are key. The Raiders lost 15 fumbles and threw 18 interceptions, contributing to a -13 turnover margin. As usual, “Pride and Poise” was very lacking by a -33 penalty margin worth 236 total yards in lost field position. The end result is what we’ve seen the past seven years: double-digit losses, being outscored by almost a 2:1 margin, and giving up yardage at almost a 3:2 ratio. An offense succeeds by moving forward, not backward.

Whatever optimism is warranted for the Raiders 4-3 defense is questionable. They did rank seventh last year against the pass, but that’s because they ranked 29th against the run. No offense ran the ball as often as Raider opponents did (548 times) and no offense called passing plays as infrequently as Raider opponents did (455 times -- 438 passes and 37 sacks). The Raiders defense was the NFL’s worst in allowing the greatest yardage per passing attempt and per pass completion. They tied the St. Louis Rams for the fewest interceptions (eight), quarterbacks were the tenth-most efficient against them, and they gave up the ninth-most first downs, and were among the worst at preventing the big play (gains of at least 20 yards). Their star cornerback, Nnamdi Asomugha, accounted for only one of the eight total interceptions by the defense. At some point, someone has to remind me why owner Al Davis rewarded him with a three-year, $45-million contract.

Can the Raiders defense improve? It depends on how well it grows together as a unit with two rookies, defensive end Lamarr Houston (second-round pick out of Texas) and middle linebacker Rolando McClain (first-round pick out of Alabama). It also remains to be seen how third-year defensive end Trevor Scott handles the transition to outside linebacker.

So if the offense is anemic and fragile, and the defense is suspect, where is the source of optimism? Some consider the Raiders schedule among the easiest, only playing four games against 2009 playoff teams: at Arizona (Sept. 26), San Diego (home Oct. 10, away Dec. 5), and Indianapolis (home Dec. 26). However, don’t let this mislead you. The Raiders also have road games against the Titans (Sept. 12), 49ers (Oct. 17) and Steelers (Nov. 21), and host the Texans October 3. Add in home and away games with the Broncos and Chiefs, the Raiders schedule is quite competitive.

As for the Chiefs, they’re in year two of Todd Haley’s rebuilding program. One of the best offseason moves was to hire former Patriots offensive coordinator Charlie Weis shortly after he was fired as Notre Dame’s head coach. Weis should be able to help quarterback Matt Cassel improve off his injury-marred 2009 performance. The Chiefs were woeful offensively, especially in the passing game. Cassel’s wide receivers are former Dolphin Chris Chambers and fourth-year man Dwayne Bowe. Leonard Pope is the new tight end, replacing Tony Gonzales (traded last season to Atlanta), and former Jet Thomas Jones is the lead running back; last year’s rushing leader, Jamaal Charles (1,120 yards, 7 TDs) will back up Jones. But the key for the offense will be the offensive line. The Chiefs know how to run block and produce on the ground, but when you’re only backup quarterback is Brody Coyle, Haley and Weis better hope the line does better at pass protection and keep Cassel (sacked 42 times in 2009) in one piece.

If the Chiefs offense was woeful, their defense was simply awful, especially against the run; only the Tampa Bay Buccaneers gave up more rushing yardage, and only the New York Giants, Detroit Lions and St. Louis Rams allowed more points last season. Hiring former Browns head coach Romeo Crennel as new defensive coordinator should help tremendously. The Chiefs field a very young 3-4 defense, including rookie Eric Berry at free safety, their first-round pick out of Tennessee. In fact, with the exception of veteran nose tackle Ron Edwards, linebackers Mike Vrabel, Derrick Johnson and Tamba Hali, and strong safety Jon McGraw, more than half the starting defensive unit has less than three years of NFL experience. Given the Chiefs will see top or improved passing attacks (San Diego, San Francisco, Indianapolis and Houston), as well as strong running attacks (Cleveland, San Francisco and Jacksonville) during their first six games, their defense may be in for some rough growing pains.

Predicted order of finish:
1. Chargers
2. Broncos
3. Raiders
4. Chiefs

National Conference:
One might expect the Dallas Cowboys to be favored to represent the NFC at Dallas Cowboys Stadium on February 6, 2011, but they aren’t necessarily among the top three teams in this conference. Naturally, we need to start the conversation with the defending Super Bowl champs, the Saints, and of course, we need to talk about the Minnesota Vikings because Brett Favre is back for “one last season.” But the NFC is pretty wide-open in terms of talent and top teams, and believe it or not, the Green Bay Packers may just be the NFC team to keep a very close eye on after making major strides in 2009. On the other hand, there could be dark horses like the 49ers and Falcons lurking in the shadows, waiting to pounce on the rest of the conference while taking next steps upward. But given each team’s strengths and weaknesses, as well as trends within each division, the smart money may very well be placed on either the Saints or Packers, with a little pining for the Cowboys or Vikings.

NFC Western Division:
We begin by looking at the defending two-time divisional champion Arizona Cardinals, and it looks like their reign will end in 2010, primarily because of their former players: quarterbacks Kurt Warner (retired) and Matt Leinart (released, now with Houston), wide receiver Anquan Boldin (traded to Baltimore), safety Antrel Rolle (released, now with New York Giants) and linebacker Karlos Dansby (free agency, now with Dolphins). New faces are safety Kerry Rhodes (via trade from New York Jets), linebacker Joey Porter (free agent from Miami), placekicker Jay Feely and guard Alan Faneca (free agents from the Jets), and quarterback Derek Anderson (free agent from Cleveland). Will the Cardinals continue to be a pass-happy team like they were with Warner at quarterback, or will they morph into a more run-oriented offense?

Will the Cardinals 3-4 defense regain its 2008 form en route to the Super Bowl, or will it continue to regress further after giving up 90 points in two playoff games last season? Can Rhodes be the physical safety he wasn’t in New York? Is there enough left in Porter’s tank to make up for the loss of Dansby? By early November many questions will be answered. The Cardinals visit Atlanta (Sept. 19), San Diego (Oct. 3) and Minnesota (Nov. 7), in addition to hosting the Saints October 10. If the Cardinals are to win a third straight divisional title, their November 29 and January 2 home and away games with the 49ers might be critical.

The 49ers look like they’re on track to build off last year’s 8-8 record and challenge the Cardinals for divisional supremacy. Head coach Mike Singletary has his players focused and committed to winning, and both the offensive and defensive units boast young talented cores. On offense, quarterback Alex Smith, running back Frank Gore, wide receiver Michael Crabtree and tight end Vernon Davis have the potential to score plenty of points. The offensive line has blue-chip first round picks Mike Iupati (Idaho) solidifying the left guard position and Anthony Davis (Rutgers) manning the right tackle post. While the line may be young and need to grow together as a unit, the talent is high with lots of potential.

The strength of the 49ers 3-4 defense lies up the middle with inside linebackers Takeo Spikes and Patrick Willis. The defense is a veteran unit going into its third season under Singletary’s guidance, a good point to elevate play to another level. The defense is aggressive, can sack the quarterback and create turnovers. Now it needs to play more focused, especially in the fourth quarter (they blew five leads in 2009).

Like the Cardinals, the 49ers play six games against 2009 playoff teams. However, they five road games more than one time zone away (the Cardinals play only three such games). Key games for the 49ers playoff aspirations are home games with the Saints (Sept. 20), Philadelphia Eagles (Oct. 10), Green Bay (Dec. 5), Seattle (Dec. 12) and the Cardinals (Jan. 2), and road games at Seattle (Sept. 12), Atlanta (Oct. 3), Arizona (Nov. 29) and San Diego (Dec. 16).

It was only five years ago that the Seattle Seahawks went 13-3 and made it to Super Bowl XL before losing 21-10 to the Steelers. Here we are, five years and two head coaches later, and the Seahawks under new head coach Pete Carroll (formerly head coach at Southern California) are trying to rebuild after last season’s 5-11. Last year the Seahawks ran the ball poorly (look towards improvement with running backs Julius Jones and former Jet Leon Washington), and were horrendous defending against the pass. What kind of offense will we see with 35-year-old Matt Hasselbeck at quarterback? How much of an impact will second-round pick Golden Tate (Notre Dame) provide at wide receiver? Will first-round pick Russell Okung (Oklahoma State) be healthy enough to provide solid protection at left tackle? Is there enough depth for the offensive line to be effective? Is there enough depth at the skill positions for Hasselbeck to consistently put points on the scoreboard? He’ll need to.

Seattle’s 4-3 defensive unit is well-stocked with experienced veterans, but the front four didn’t produce many sacks last year, the secondary didn’t intercept many passes, and this is why the Seahawks were 30th in the NFL last year in pass defense. We have to wonder how much better the defense will really be if 15-year veteran Lawyer Milloy is the starting strong safety.

If the Seahawks are to make noise in the division, their first three games against the 49ers (home, Sept. 12), Broncos (away, Sept. 19) and Chargers (home, Sept. 26) will tell us plenty about their talent and competitiveness, maybe not for winning the division, but perhaps battling the Cardinals for second place.

This brings us to the St. Louis Lamb Chops... er, Rams. Year two of the Steve Spagnuolo rebuilding project offers hope that 2010 can’t be worse than 2009. The Rams were terrible on offense, defense and special teams, gave up the second-most points and scored the least... oh, and that’s how you finish 1-15.

Good news! The Rams have top draft pick Sam Bradford (Oklahoma) starting at quarterback to go along with perennial 1,000-yard running back Steve Jackson and recently acquired wide receiver Mark Clayton (via trade from Baltimore). Bad news... that’s it for the offensive talent. The offensive line has yet to be upgraded, so Bradford will likely be running for his life trying to stay alive in the pocket.

As for their 4-3 defensive unit, it has veteran talent (DE Chris Long, DT Fred Robbins, LB Na’il Diggs, and CB Kevin Dockery), but the question remains as to whether it has enough experience playing together under Spagnuolo’s attack scheme to keep games close enough for the offense to stay in games.

Predicted order of finish:
1. 49ers
2. Seahawks
3. Cardinals
4. Rams

NFC Southern Division:
All logic tells us the Saints should be favored to repeat as Super Bowl champs, or at least NFC champs, or at least NFC South champs, and yet there are a few interesting tidbits about Super Bowl champs and the NFC South to consider:
1. Since the 2004 season, no Super Bowl champ has either repeated as champ, nor has it made it back to the Super Bowl the next season.
2. Since the 2005 season, two of the last four Super Bowl champs (2006 and 2009 Steelers) failed to make it to the playoffs the following season.
3. Since the 2002 divisional realignment, no NFC South champ has repeated the next season.
4. Since the 2002 divisional realignment, the NFC South champ was in last place the previous season.

Well, when confronted with that much evidence, why bother discussion this division and let’s conclude that this year’s divisional champ will be the Tampa Bay Buccaneers... Okay, maybe not. The Buccaneers are a team very much in transition, and odds are highly against year two of head coach Raheem Morris’ tenure bringing a complete turnaround after last year’s 3-13 record. The roster is still thin of major talent at too many positions, and too many young players, including second-year quarterback Josh Freeman, still have a lot of growing ahead of them. But the Bucs will play hard and make some games interesting, just not enough games to compete for the divisional title.

So what about the Saints? Yes, the offense is blessed with quarterback Drew Brees, running back Reggie Bush, wide receiver Marques Colston and tight end Jeremy Shockey. The offensive line is big, experienced and talented; it gives Brees lots of time to throw downfield and opens up wide holes for Bush to run through. Scoring points doesn’t seem to be a problem for the Saints.

Preventing the other team from scoring points may be a problem. As many points as the Saints offense scored and as many yards as they piled up last year, the defense gave away almost as much. Yes, you have to love defensive coordinator Gregg Williams’ aggressive 4-3 scheme, but it is susceptible to deep passes (they ranked 26th against the pass last year), and it lives by a feast or famine approach relative to producing turnovers. There were more than a few high-scoring shootouts the offense had to rescue the defense from, and with safety Darren Sharper out for the first six weeks (Reserved-Physically Unable to Perform list) for a hip injury, the Saints have lost one of their key weapons. Last season alone, Sharper had nine of the 26 Saints interceptions, returning three for touchdowns (the Saints returned five total).

Can the Saints repeat as division champs and beyond? Of course they can. Will they be as dominant as last season? Maybe not. Either way, be prepared for lots of points on both sides of the scoreboard this season.

Believe it or not, but for the first time in their 44 year history, the Atlanta Falcons finally had back-to-back winning seasons (11-5 in 2008, 9-7 in 2009). Now that the Falcons have resurrected themselves from the dark days of life without former quarterback Michael Vick, and have found some overall consistency, can they take the next step and challenge the Saints for the divisional title? Why not?!

First, the Falcons have lots of talent on offense: quarterback Matt Ryan, running back Michael Turner, wide receivers Roddy White and Michael Jenkins, and tight end Tony Gonzalez. The offensive line is in its third year playing together. If key players stay healthy (Ryan and Turner were both out with injuries for periods of time last season), there’s no reason why the Falcons can’t be productive.

On the other hand, the Falcons 4-3 defense needs to drastically improve upon last year’s 28th ranking in pass defense. This means a much better pass rush and registering more than 28 quarterback sacks. The onus falls on veteran defensive end John Abraham to increase pressure on opposing quarterbacks. This also puts pressure on several young defensive players to step up and make more plays: third-year defensive end Kroy Biermann, middle linebacker Curtis Lofton, free safety Thomas DeCoud and cornerback Brent Grimes. First-round pick Sean Witherspoon (Missouri) is the new face at right linebacker. For as much as the Falcons offense scored last year, the defense gave up almost as many points. For the Falcons to take the next step, they need the defense to keep opposing offenses off the scoreboard more.

When it comes to the Carolina Panthers we think of head coach John Fox, solid defense, strong running game, and just enough passing from quarterback Jake Delhomme to win tough close games. Delhomme is now the Browns quarterback, Fox is in the final year of his contract, and the Panthers are trying to get younger, quicker and healthier on both sides of the ball. Last year’s 8-8 season was somewhat a tale of two seasons and two quarterbacks. The first season was quite awful, as Delhomme struggled coming back from 2008 elbow surgery: 4-7 record and outscored 256-199. The second season was more promising, as Matt Moore led the Panthers to a 4-1 record, outscoring opponents 116-52.

Which Panthers offense will we see? If the preseason is any indication (1-3 record, outscored 52-33), we may still see struggles, even if Moore is the starting quarterback. Aside from injury prone wide receiver Steve Smith and the running back tandem of DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart, there’s not much else in terms of offensive depth. If Moore struggles for long, don’t be surprised if Fox replaces him with rookie Jimmy Clausen (2nd round, Notre Dame).

As for the Panthers 4-3 defense, it’s a relatively young unit led by a promising linebacker corps of Jon Beason, Dan Conner and James Anderson. The Panthers were 22nd against the rush last year, which means the defense needs to play more physically in order to put opposing offenses in more third-and-long passing situations for a pass rush that should generate more than the 31 sacks they registered in 2009.

Does anyone in the division have a favorable schedule? All four teams in the division face five 2009 playoff teams, the Falcons and Panthers each play only one road game more than one time zone away (Carolina and Atlanta visit Seattle Dec. 5 and 19), but the Saints travel far twice (Sept. 20 at San Francisco, Oct. 10 at Arizona).

The Panthers have key games against Cincinnati (home, Sept. 26), New Orleans (away Oct. 3, home Nov. 7), San Francisco (home, Oct. 24), Baltimore (home, Nov. 21) and at Pittsburgh (Dec. 23). The Falcons visit Pittsburgh September 12, the Saints (Sept. 26) and Philadelphia (Oct. 17), and host the 49ers (Oct. 3), Cincinnati (Oct. 24), Baltimore (Nov. 11), Green Bay (Nov. 28), and the Saints (Dec. 27). The Panthers and Falcons meet December 12 in Carolina, then close the season January 2 in Atlanta.

As for the Saints, their championship defense begins September 9 at home against the Vikings followed by a trip to San Francisco September 20). The tough stretch of their schedule begins on Thanksgiving afternoon (Nov. 25), playing the Cowboys at Dallas, followed by visits to Cincinnati (Dec. 5), Baltimore (Dec. 19) and Atlanta (Dec. 26).

Predicted order of finish:
1. Saints
2. Falcons
3. Panthers
4. Buccaneers

NFC Northern Division:
This division will be determined by one factor, the Brett Favre factor, as in:
Will Brett Favre be healthy enough to play all 16 games for the Vikings at the level of his 2009 performance?
Can the Packers finally defeat their former quarterback?

When we look back at 2009, the NFC North boiled down to one key statistic: Brett Favre and the Vikings were 2-0 against his former team of 16 seasons, the Packers. The difference resulted in the Vikings winning the division with a 12-4 record, one game better than the 11-5 mark by the Packers. Both teams have prolific offenses, explosive passing attacks, solid running games, and respectable defenses, especially against the run. While the Packers primarily employ a 3-4 defense and the Vikings mostly use a 4-3, they finished first and second, respectively, against the run. The Vikings defense has a very formidable pass rush (48 sacks in 2009), while the Packers pass rush could improve more. Both defenses are good at creating turnovers with physical play. In many respects, the defenses are evenly matched.

The difference between first and second place could be determined by the ability of Favre and Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers to avoid pass rushers and injury. Both quarterbacks were battered last year despite each passing for over 4,000 yards and 30 touchdowns. Favre was sacked 37 times and hit countless more times, including the NFC Championship game loss to the Saints. Rodgers was sacked an astounding 50 times, and took many more hits beyond that.

If either quarterback goes down for an extended period of time, both teams could be in serious trouble. Rodgers is backed up by third-year man Matt Flynn, who has thrown 17 passes in his NFL career. On the other hand, Favre is backed up by fifth-year man Tavaris Jackson, now the undisputed backup with Sage Rosenfels traded to the Giants. Jackson, the Vikings starting quarterback in 2008, threw 21 passes alone last season when Favre needed a breather. Many say Jackson is capable of leading the Vikings offense if and when Favre retires. I think there are doubts within the Vikings brain trust, considering how much effort they’ve gone to two summers in a row to bring Favre out of retirement. With Favre at the controls, the Vikings are not necessarily a run-first team. With Jackson at quarterback, expectations are for a more run-oriented team featuring running back Adrian Peterson. On the other hand, if Rodgers were to be injured, chances are the offense wouldn’t change its philosophy or orientation much with Flynn at quarterback.

Bottom line? The Vikings and Packers better hope Favre and Rodgers stay healthy for all of 2010.

Perhaps the biggest obstacle for the Vikings will be Favre working with a somewhat depleted receiving corps. Sidney Rice is out the first half of the season after recent hip surgery, and Percy Harvin has been battling migraines throughout training camp. The Vikings recently acquired wide receivers Javon Walker (released Sept. 4) and Greg Camarillo (via trade with Miami Aug. 25). The Packers offense appears at full strength and at full throttle, as evidenced by their 59-24 preseason win against the Colts.

It will be interesting to see how Bears quarterback Jay Cutler rebounds from a poor 2009 under the guidance of new offensive coordinator Mike Martz. In many regards, this is a perfect match... Martz’s loosey-goosey playbook is known to result in turnovers by over-aggressive play, and Cutler is an interception waiting to happen. The question will be if the Bears offense can generate enough points to offset a defense vulnerable any time middle linebacker Brian Urlacher is injured.

As for the Lions, there’s hope in the Motor City for a gradual revival. Head coach Jim Schwartz has a roster of young, talented and motivated players. Second-year quarterback Matthew Stafford has the arm and receivers to continuously improve the offense, and first-round pick Ndamukong Suh (DT, Nebraska) should help the defense improve against the run and pass.

But this division is really all about the Vikings and the Packers. Both teams play against the AFC and NFC Eastern divisions, the Packers play Atlanta (away, Nov. 28) and San Francisco (home, Dec. 5) while the Vikings play the Saints (away, Sept. 9) and Cardinals (home, Nov. 7). Divisional supremacy will be determined by their own head-to-head games: October 24 in Green Bay and November 21 in Minnesota.

Predicted order of finish:
1. Packers
2. Vikings
3. Bears
4. Lions

NFC Eastern Division:
If ever there was a division with too many warts, it’s the NFC East. None of these teams stands out head and shoulders above the rest, so in many respects we’re picking the least flawed team, and that’s the Dallas Cowboys. Yes, the Cowboys have a loaded offense with quarterback Tony Romo, running backs Marion Barber III and Felix Jones, wide receivers Roy Williams, Miles Austin and rookie Dez Bryant, and tight end Jason Witten. But the offensive line is beat up by injuries and players out of position, and it showed during a very scattershot preseason. The 3-4 defense has veteran talent, but it’s vulnerable to being torched, as the Vikings showed in last year’s 34-3 rout and the Texans did during the preseason.

On the other hand, the Giants are coming off a very frustrating, disappointing and confusing 8-8 season. Things looked rosy while the Giants raced out to a 5-0 start, then the wheels slowly came off during a 3-8 finish that included six losses where the defense surrendered at least 40 points. What went wrong? Injuries on defense, a complete disaster for former defensive coordinator Bill Sheridan, who not only lost the trust of his players, but ultimately lost his job. New defensive coordinator Perry Fewell hopes to re-instill the bite in that 4-3 defense, but it remains to be seen how quickly the players adjust to the new scheme. During the preseason, the Giants defense showed it can still be a force at the line of scrimmage, but opposing offensive players ran freely through the linebackers and defensive backs. Towards the end of last season, the Giants offense seemed discouraged trying to fight uphill and engage in scoring shootouts, and the Giants were embarrassed by a composite score of 85-16 during their last two games, losses to Carolina and Minnesota.

The Giants certainly have offensive weapons in quarterback Eli Manning, running backs Brandon Jacobs and Ahmad Bradshaw, tight end Kevin Boss, and wide receivers Hakeem Nicks and Steve Smith. There is depth at the skilled positions but not necessarily so on the offensive line. Throughout the preseason the Giants rotated players all along the line positions to compensate for injured center Shaun O’Hara. The Giants can’t afford to go too long into the regular season with a patchwork line.

The story in Philadelphia and Washington is Donovan McNabb, as in he’s no longer the Eagles quarterback but is now the Redskins quarterback. This is clearly a rebuilding year for head coach Andy Reid’s Eagles, with Kevin Kolb at quarterback, LeSean McCoy at running back, and the wide receiver tandem of DeSean Jackson and Jeremy Maclin. For so much youth at the quarterback position, the Eagles need their veteran offensive line to provide solid protection and create more opportunities for the running game. The defense is fairly solid and experienced. Look for rookie Brandon Graham (1st round, Michigan) to make an impact at left defensive end.

As for the Redskins, the good news of McNabb at quarterback and Mike Shanahan as head coach has been tempered by the circus-like situation with defensive tackle Albert Haynesworth. McNabb has already injured his ankle, so there’s doubt as to how healthy his is to start and play through the entire season. The Redskins have Clinton Portis and Larry Brown to run the ball, and Santana Moss and Joey Galloway to catch passes, but just like McNabb, there are always question marks with regards to the health (physical and sometimes emotional) of Portis, Johnson, Moss and Galloway. If McNabb is out for any extended period of time, Rex Grossman and John Beck don’t necessarily comfort fans if they’re under center.

Depth is not abundant with the Redskins offense, and neither are experience or cohesiveness on the offensive line, which starts rookie Trent Williams (1st round, Oklahoma) at left tackle. On defense, the Redskins now employ a 3-4 scheme that may be getting a little too long in the tooth: defensive end Phillip Daniels (15th year), inside linebacker London Fletcher (13th year) and outside linebacker Andre Carter (10th year). For a defense that only generated 17 turnovers, the Redskins can’t afford to let age and a decline in speed and aggressiveness catch up to them, not with such a fragile offensive lineup that may struggle for points. But unlike the Cowboys, Giants and Eagles, the only way for the Redskins is indeed upward; we hope it can’t get any worse than last year’s debacle.

Don’t be surprised if this division is all jumbled up and we see either 9-7 or 7-9 teams when the regular season ends. That being said, head-to-head games between all four teams will be most critical. The Cowboys visit Washington September 12 and Philadelphia January 2. A four-week stretch against the Saints (home, Nov. 25), Colts (away, Dec. 5), Eagles (Dec. 12) and Redskins (Dec. 19) should determine how the Cowboys finish relative to playoff contention. The Giants’ fate may be determined before their Halloween bye week: Panthers (home, Sept. 12), Colts (away, Sept. 19), Titans (home, Sept. 26), Texans (away, Oct. 10) and Cowboys (Oct. 24).

The Eagles and Redskins play each other October 3 (in Philadelphia) and November 15 (in Washington). How the Eagles season will go depends on how they handle pre-Halloween games against Green Bay (home, Sept. 12), San Francisco (away, Oct. 10), Atlanta (home, Oct. 17) and Tennessee (away, Oct. 24). If they’re still in the hunt by then, they host the Colts November 7 to start their season’s second half. As for the Redskins, after opening with the Cowboys, they host the Texans (Sept. 19), Packers (Oct. 10) and Colts (Oct. 17). If they’re still in the hunt by their November 7 bye, they have the Eagles (home, Nov. 15), Titans (away, Nov. 21) and Vikings (home, Nov. 28) to look forward to.

Predicted order of finish:
1. Cowboys
2. Giants
3. Eagles
4. Redskins

AFC Playoffs:
I see the Jets, Ravens, Colts and Chargers as divisional champs with the Patriots and Bengals as wild card teams.
Eventually the Jets and Ravens will meet again in the championship game. Winner is whomever has home-field advantage.
In my heart, I’d love to see my Jets give the Meadowlands one final reason to cheer en route to Dallas February 6, but playing in such a competitive division may work to the Jets disadvantage and force them to play this game in Baltimore. Both teams have tremendous defensive units, but the slight edge has to go to a slightly older, wiser and more experienced Joe Flacco over Mark Sanchez. Ravens could very well be going to the Super Bowl.

NFC Playoffs:
I see the Cowboys, Packers, Saints and 49ers as divisional champs with the Vikings and Falcons as wild card teams.
Eventually the Packers and Saints will meet in the championship game, and this time it won’t be at the Superdome. Home-field advantage determines the winner, and this time the Packers get it right at Lambeau Field.

There you have it... in my heart I want an all-green Super Bowl between the Jets and Packers, but something tells me February 6 will have a little purple rain instead, only this time that purple isn’t from Minnesota.

And down the stretch they come... MLB races at the Labor Day mark - Sports Thoughts for September 2, 2010

As we all know, Labor Day is the last traditional holiday point of the summer where baseball fans love to see where their teams are at and how the pennant races are shaping up for the big finish. With approximately 30 games to go, this is when folks are either full of anticipation or resigned to wait until next year. Why? Because there’s been a long-time axiom that says teams in first place at labor Day usually end up winning their divisional crown. Then again, we tend to say this for the July 31st trading deadline, the All-Star break, the 4th of July, Mother’s Day... But as the ‘64 Phillies, ‘95 Angels, and the ‘07 and ‘08 Mets have taught us, nothing’s ever a sure deal in September.

Ha, ha, ha... Give me re-write and let’s see how smart I was back on July 4th...

As you might remember, I’ve been harping all season that the route towards winning your division is to basically beat up on everyone else in your division. If you have the best intradivisional record, odds are good you’ll be in first place. So... Let’s see how my theory’s holding up, and let’s see how my July 4th predictions did...

AL East:
Do I know how to handicap a division or what?! Back in July I said the Rays and Yankees would battle it out in a tight race for first place and the wild card , and both would likely be the beast of the east in terms of intradivisional winning percentage. I said the Red Sox would eventually drop back because of health and depth issues, and the Blue Jays would slowly fade due to not being ready yet for the heat of a pennant race (ah, but there’s always next year, my fellow Toronto fans).

And what do you know? Here we are at Labor Day weekend, and guess who’s at the top of the division? Yep, the Rays and Yankees, both enjoying the best records in MLB, and the top records against divisional opponents. The Yankees are slightly better at home; the Rays are slightly better on the road. Should I change my prediction of the Rays sneaking past the Yankees are the divisional winner? Nope. Despite the Rays having two starting pitchers on the 15-day DL earlier in the month, the Yankees have more than their share of pitching woes, age issues, and a roster full of creaky players playing on fumes. Who knows what kind of pitching rotation manager Joe Girardi will have by October, but a three-man rotation of C.C. Sabathia, A.J. Burnett, and Phil Hughes or Andy Pettitte isn’t going to strike fear in any of the other AL playoff teams. Years ago, the then-Boston Braves had the slogan “Spahn and Sain, and pray for rain” in order to overcome their thin pitching staff. In the Yankees’ case, the tune may be “C.C. and, and... and please score lots of runs.” On the other hand, the Rays still have a potentially solid three-man rotation of David Price, Matt Garza, and James Shields or Jeff Niemann.

Going into this weekend, the Yankees play 13 of their remaining 28 games at home. On the other hand, 17 of the Rays’ remaining 23 games are on the road. In terms of schedule, the last month favors the Rays. They play the Yankees seven more times (September 13-15 in Tampa, September 20-23 in New York), and the Rays are 6-5 versus the Yankees so far. On the other hand, the Yankees still have 6 games left against the Red Sox (September 24-26 in New York, October 1-3 in Boston), whom they are 7-5 against. Meanwhile, the Rays are in Boston for three remaining games September 6-8, and are already 9-5 against the Red Sox this season.

So, as the month of September grinds along, I think the edge still goes to Tampa Bay to win the division while the Yankees outlast Boston for the wild card. The Rays will win on the strength of their pitching. The Yankees will try to outscore what their starting rotation surrenders.

AL Central:
As I said back in late-June, the Twins were likely the team to survive what could be a tough three-horse race over the White Sox and Tigers, and it appears I’m Carnac once again. Injuries and some inconsistency have hit all three teams this season, but Detroit eventually took the brunt of it. Once they lost closer Joel Zumaya to a blown out elbow, they simply didn’t have the bullpen-by-committee reserves to compensate like Minnesota did when they lost Joe Nathan during spring training to Tommy John surgery. As for the White Sox, they’ve been streaky in the positive and negative directions all season long, and all you have to do is listen to the tone of manager Ozzie Guillen’s rants to gauge how the winds blow on Chicago’s south side. Having Manny Ramirez in the batting order in September is a crapshoot, unlikely to help the White Sox make a final charge past the Twins.

Beginning this weekend, the Twins play 16 of their remaining 28 games at home, and the White Sox play 16 of their remaining 29 games at home. Chicago’s last stand may very well September 14-16, when they host the Twins for their final three head-to-head games. The Twins have beaten the White Sox 10 times in 15 meetings so far.

But as I said in July, the Twins likely were the best team among the three contenders, and that would be the difference in this divisional race. If you look at intradivisional records, the Twins indeed hold the best record by a wide margin, and this is why they’re in first place and will likely hang on for the divisional crown.

AL West:
This divisional race has been a surprising runaway for the Texas Rangers, and unless things go absolutely wrong (see ‘07 and ‘08 Mets), there’s no reason why they shouldn’t hold off the Angels and A’s to win their first divisional crown since 1999. How have the Rangers done it? It hasn’t necessarily been due to beating up on everyone else in the division, even though their 24-16 record against their AL West rivals is good (The Angels are 24-17 against AL West teams). No one in the division has a winning road record, although the Rangers are the least worst in the division. The Rangers do have the best home record within the division. Add up their least worst road record, best home record, best intradivisional record, a prolonged slump by the Angels and too late a wake-up by the A’s, and this is how the Rangers are in first place by the largest margin in all six divisional races.

AL Playoff teams:
Back in July I predicted the following:
AL East — Tampa Bay
AL Central — Minnesota
AL West — Texas
Wild card — Yankees

My predictions are still the same going into Labor Day weekend.

ALDS & ALCS:
Okay, I’m going out on a limb and saying the best divisional series will be between Tampa Bay and Minnesota, assuming the Rays win the AL East with the best record and Texas ends up with a better record than the Twins. Tampa Bay and Minnesota clearly have the best pitching staffs in terms of youth, health, and depth. The wheels are slowly coming off the Yankees pitching staff, and the Rangers pitching staff may be too inconsistent, especially Cliff Lee as the presumed ace since coming over from Seattle at mid-season. Whichever team comes from the Rays-Twins series will likely win the AL pennant over the Yankees, who can clearly outslug the Rangers in any series, regardless of playing in New York or Arlington.

On the other hand, the postseason would be most fun if the Twins ended up with a better record than the Rangers. This would match the Rangers against the Rays and the Twins against the Yankees. If the Twins have home field advantage in a short series with the Yankees, I do believe this is the year Ron Gardenhire’s team can finally get over the first-round hump and slay the Bronx Bombers. This would send the Twins against the Rays in what could be as exciting a seven-game championship series as we saw in 2008 when the Rays held off the Red Sox. I have a soft spot for both the Rays and Twins, but I give the edge to Tampa Bay because of their incredible starting rotation.

NL West:
In research, there are always confounding variables that interfere with the validity of a theory. In this division we have the Los Angeles Dodgers. Back in July I said the Dodgers were going to win this division on the basis of their dominance within the division. Boy, was I wrong, wrong wrong... While the Dodgers still have the best intradivisional record (30-18), they can’t seem to beat anyone else outside the division, or on the road, with any consistency. When the Dodgers trade for catcher Rod Barajas from the Mets as a possible savior in the batting order, while unloading Manny Ramirez to the White Sox, you know you’re grasping at straws, not to mention all the teams in front of you in the divisional race. What a sad way for Joe Torre’s tenure to likely end in Los Angeles. The Dodgers have been a soap opera most of the season, and now with Frank and Jamie McCourt slugging it out in divorce court, September doesn’t look to be calm or pleasant.

If the Dodgers have a last gasp at overtaking three teams and winning their third straight divisional crown they’ll need to overcome their own schizophrenia. The Dodgers play the San Diego Padres, San Francisco Giants, Colorado Rockies and Arizona Diamondbacks 24 of their final 28 games. The Dodgers are a combined 30-18 against these teams. Unfortunately, 15 games are on the road and only nine are at Chez Ravine, where the Dodgers enjoy a 40-29 record. The Dodgers are 28-37 on the road.

I was about to join all the other baseball geniuses with egg on their faces for predicting and waiting for the Padres to collapse, but a funny thing happened on the way to running away with the division. A week ago all I would want to talk about was the little engine that could, and would, and keep going! As I discussed back in July, the Padres are doing it with pitching, pitching, and pitching. On paper one would think team with the NL’s best record has been surviving with smoke and mirrors, but they actually have the NL’s best record since mid-season of 2009, second only to the Yankees. Suddenly, the Padres aren’t still winning games 1-0, 2-1, and 3-2. In fact, they’ve lost seven straight, and their one-healthy lead has dwindled to three games. All those close games best prepares a team for the tightness of postseason games, especially with a lights-out closer in Heath Bell. The flip side, however, is that all those close low-scoring games might eventually take their toll, and this may be case for the Padres. Suddenly the starting rotation has sprung leaks, but the bats are unable to overcome this. Could this be the beginning of the end for the Padres?

Looking at their schedule, this upcoming nine-game home stand (September 3-12) against the Rockies (4-8 record against), Dodgers (5-7) and Giants (9-2) may tell us once and for all if the Padres can hang on. After the home stand they go on the road September 13-23 to play three games in Colorado, four in St. Louis (3-3 record against), and three in Los Angeles. The Padres then play their final home stand September 24-30: three games against Cincinnati (2-1) and four against the Cubs (4-0). Then the Padres close out the season with three games in San Francisco (October 1-3).

As for the Giants, they will play 12 games at home (including their final six) and 16 on the road. The Giants don’t play as well as the Padres do on the road, and they’re a combined 27-27 record against their final opponents, the Diamondbacks, Cubs, Rockies, Dodgers, Brewers and Padres. The Padres are a combined 27-21 against their final opponents.

If the Rockies are seeking to make yet another late-September push, they benefit from playing 16 of their final 29 games at home — a 10-game home stand (September 6-15) against Cincinnati (four games), Arizona (three) and San Diego (three), then a six-game home stand September 24-29 with three each against the Giants and Dodgers. Unfortunately, the Rockies are a combined 28-26 against these teams, and 26 of their remaining 29 games will be against them.

If the Padres can regain their equilibrium during this upcoming home stand, odds are good they should end up winning the division. If a team is going to slump, better it be before September really gets underway and you still lead everyone else. If the Padres do collapse, it’s anyone’s guess as to who will take over. San Francisco has the smallest margin to overcome, but consistency hasn’t been their strong suit. However, given the number of road games the Giants, Rockies and Dodgers have to play from this point out, the Giants may be the best pick because they’re the least lousy away from their home park.

NL Central:
I asked this question back in July, and I’ll ask it again: How are the Cincinnati Reds in first place? As was the case two months ago, I’m somewhat at a loss for why the Reds remain in first place by a growing margin over St. Louis (now eight games), but a pattern is becoming clearer with each day crossed off the season calendar... Despite having a shaky pitching staff and being unable to beat quality opponents, including the Cardinals, the Reds do have the division’s best record against divisional rivals (they’ve feasted on the Cubs, Pirates, Brewers and Astros), they do well at home and nearly as well on the road (virtually tied with San Diego for NL’s best record).

As for the Cardinals, since the All-Star break, they can’t beat up on weaker teams (10-19), struggle within the division (10-13, but 3-0 versus Cincinnati), and struggle on the road (8-13).

Worse, since the Cardinals swept the Reds in Cincinnati August 9-11, they’re 5-13, including 3-12 against the Cubs, Brewers, Pirates, Nationals and Astros (swept in Houston August 30-September 1).

Going into the home stretch, the Cardinals have 14 games left at home (including their final seven) and 13 on the road, and only three left with the Reds this weekend in St. Louis. On the other hand, after this weekend series in St. Louis, the Reds will have 13 games left each at home (including their final six) and on the road; 19 of their remaining 26 games would be against the Pirates, Astros, Brewers, and Diamondbacks, teams the Reds are already 23-8 against so far this season. Of the remaining 24 games after this weekend, the Cardinals play 15 games against the Cubs, Brewers and Pirates, teams they’re only 16-14 against so far this season.

Logic once told me the Cardinals should be primed to take over this division and hold off the Reds. The Cardinals have better pitching and a more complete batting order. The Cardinals are 10-5 so far against the Reds. But the Cardinals have suffered from inconsistency for most of the last three months and have yet to pull themselves out of neutral, while the Reds have the NL’s second-best record. If the Cardinals cannot sweep these three games against the Reds, they may have to face reality and focus on the wild card race and Albert Pujols’ battle with Cincinnati’s Joey Votto for the NL’s first Triple Crown since Joe (“Ducky”) Medwick won titles for batting average, home runs and RBIs in 1937.

I hate to say a three-game Labor Day series could decide a divisional title, but after Labor Day, the Reds have the favorable schedule, and the NL’s lousier teams could represent doom for Tony LaRussa’s Cardinals. Therefore, unless St. Louis sweeps this weekend’s series and creates hope, I have to give the edge and momentum to Dusty Baker’s young and feisty Reds.

NL East:
Yes, I admit I’m a card-carrying Mets fan who bleeds blue and orange since the days of Marv Throneberry, Richie Ashburn, and Ed Kranepool. Yes, I was enticed by their 90-win pace back in June. Yes, I expected the Atlanta Braves to fade just enough for the Mets to eke out the divisional title. Yes, I was wrong, wrong, wrong...

But I was correct on several points back in early July. For example, this division is still the most difficult to get a handle on. For example, the Mets, Braves and Phillies all play wonderfully at home and horribly on the road. For example, the team with the best intradivisional record is the Florida Marlins, and they are 19-19 so far this season against the Mets, Braves and Phillies. For example, starting with this weekend, the Marlins still have six games each against the Braves and Phillies, enough to wreck havoc on the divisional race and play their annual spoiler role, especially if Josh Johnson pitches in each of those remaining four series.

Have the Braves faded a bit since the All-Star break? Maybe during the last half of July (7-8), but they’re 19-11 since July 31st and are tied with the Reds for the NL’s best overall record, despite struggling with injuries. The defending NL champs, the Phillies, have also struggled with injuries and inconsistency, but are 28-18 since the All-Star Break, 19-10 since July 31st. So far, the Braves are 7-5 against the Phillies this season and lead the division by three games.

What makes things interesting is the Braves and Phillies play three games in Philadelphia September 20-22, and three more in Atlanta the final weekend of the regular season, October 1-3. From this point on, the Phillies will play 16 games at home and 12 on the road (including the final six). The Braves will play 13 games at home (including their final six) and 15 on the road. The schedule favors the Phillies, but the Braves may have the edge when both teams meet head-to-head. Again, unless you’re the Mets, it’s always good to lead the division going into September. Given how I viewed this division a toss-up between the Mets and Braves back in July, I’m inclined to view this division a toss-up going into the final two weeks of the season. However, if the Phillies fail to close the gap before September 20th, their three-game series at home could be the make-or-break point.

Given the Phillies recent history of September runs, logic might tell me they’re due to overtake the Braves and steal their fourth straight divisional crown. However, the Braves have a slightly healthier pitching staff and more reliable closer, not to mention a three-game lead going into the final month, so I can still see the Braves holding on for dear life.

NL Wild card:
Unlike the American League, there’s no guarantee the NL wild card will go to whichever team doesn’t win the east. The Phillies remain in a tight battle with St. Louis and San Francisco, and if September gets wild, perhaps the Marlins, Colorado Rockies, Dodgers, and Mets. But unless the Marlins, Rockies, Dodgers, or Mets catch lightning in a bottle, it seems the wild card will come down to the Phillies, Cardinals and Giants. Now the question remains how to handicap the race...

Heading into the final month, the Phillies will play 16 games at home and 12 on the road (including their final six). The Cardinals have 14 games left at home (including their final seven) and 13 on the road. The Giants will play 12 games at home (including their final six) and 16 on the road. Since none of these teams play particularly well on the road, the final month could favor the Phillies and Cardinals more than the Giants.

Consider each team’s opponents (including this weekend):
The Phillies play the Braves, Marlins, Brewers, Mets and Nationals (combined 28-22 record against).
The Cardinals play the Braves, Cubs, Reds, Rockies, Brewers, Pirates and Padres (combined 31-24 record against).
The Giants play the Diamondbacks, Cubs, Rockies, Dodgers, Brewers and Padres (combined 27-27 record against).

Based on remaining opponents, the slight edge may go to the Cardinals, but keep in mind they’re only 16-14 against the Cubs, Brewers and Pirates, teams they will play for 15 of their remaining 24 games after this weekend’s series with the Reds. Excluding the Braves, the Phillies are 23-15 against their remaining opponents, providing them a very favorable schedule for 22 of their remaining 28 games. The Giants still have 7 more games against the Padres (including four games in San Diego September 9-12). They’re 2-9 so far against the Padres, clearly the kiss of death, especially playing them for their final three games in San Francisco October 1-3.

The Braves and Brewers could both affect the race between Philadelphia and St. Louis. The Braves play Philadelphia 6 times, and are 7-5 against them so far. The Braves host the Cardinals September 9-12, but were swept in St. Louis April 26-29. A lot has changed since those four games, but losing by a combined 25-11 score raises questions of how the Braves’ pitching might match up against St. Louis’ hitters. The Cardinals and Brewers have split their first 12 games so far, but their final series (September 6-8) will be in Milwaukee. On the other hand, the Phillies host the Brewers this weekend and swept them May 14-16 in Milwaukee by a combined score of 23-13.

NL Playoff teams:
Back in July I predicted the following:
NL East — Mets
NL Central — St. Louis
NL West — Los Angeles Dodgers
Wild card — Atlanta

My predictions going into Labor Day weekend have changed.
NL East — Atlanta
NL Central — Cincinnati
NL West — San Diego
Wild card — Philadelphia

NLDS & NLCS:
Unless things change dramatically, the Reds could have the NL’s best record and host the Phillies in an intriguing first-round matchup of inconsistent pitching versus inconsistent but explosive hitting. The Phillies have done well against the Reds so far this season (5-2), but the question will be whether the Phillies can consistently score against the Reds’ young and maturing pitchers. Of course, there’s also the question of how will the Reds’ bats fare against the Phillies’ battered but veteran pitching staff. It wouldn’t be a surprise if the Phillies eke past the Reds in five high-scoring games. On the other hand, home field advantage will likely determine which team survives five low-scoring games between Atlanta and San Diego.

Going out on a limb again (it’s not like my predictions earn any commissions...), I think we could be seeing a Phillies-Padres match-up in the championship series. Then the question remains as to whether experience beats youth, or vice versa. The Phillies playing in the past two World Series was hardly a fluke. This is a team that relies on guts, timely hitting, scoring bursts, and enough decent pitching to get the job done. If the Phillies make it into the post-season, they may be hungry enough and savvy enough to outlast the Padres, Reds or Braves.

World Series:
As much as folks may not like it, I have a feeling this year could be a repeat of 2008’s match-up between the Phillies and Rays. However, this time I think the Rays have enough to beat the Phillies and their pitching rotation.