So here we are, a quarter of the way into the 2010 NFL regular season. For those unfamiliar, most NFL head coaches tend to break down the 16-game schedule into 4-game quarters similar to how football games are played. Since the majority of teams (except for Dallas, Tampa Bay, Minnesota and Kansas City, who had a bye week) have now played their fourth game, we can now take a quick look at each division and see how things are going.
FYI: If the NFL does indeed go to an 18-game regular season schedule in 2011 or 2012, I highly advise the owners to allow two bye weeks, so head coaches can work with a symmetrical 20-week season with 5-week quarters... You know, why tinker too much with creatures of habit?
Have there been surprises? You bet, both good and bad. Who honestly expected the Kansas City Chiefs to be 3-0, and the only unbeaten team left, at this point of the season? Who honestly expected the Pittsburgh Steelers to be 3-1 without Ben Roethlisberger at quarterback? Who expected the Indianapolis Colts and St. Louis Rams to be among thirteen 2-2 teams? Who expected the San Francisco 49ers to join the Buffalo Bills, Carolina Panthers and Detroit Lions with a sorry 0-4 distinction? I don’t know about any of you, but I certainly didn’t expect or predict any of these things.
AFC East: It’s no great surprise the New York Jets and New England Patriots share first place at 3-1 so far, but how each team got here is a little surprising. The Jets have spent the past two weeks without cornerback Darrelle Revis (post-holdout hamstring strain) and looked very vulnerable on pass defense when Miami’s Chad Henne torched them for 363 yards on September 27. It’s been a very pleasant surprise, however, to see quarterback Mark Sanchez among NFL passing leaders with eight touchdowns and ZERO interceptions, and veteran running back L’Danian Tomlinson showing vintage form after a couple of down years in San Diego. In fact, the backfield duo of Tomlinson and Shonn Greene have combined for 567 rushing yards so far (a season total projection of 2,268 yards). As predicted before the season began, Dustin Keller has become a force at tight end and Sanchez’s favorite target with 19 receptions for 254 yards and 5 touchdowns (1 from all-purpose man Brad Smith against Buffalo). To think the Jets are going into week 5 with almost their entire starting offense and defense returning to action — Revis, linebacker Calvin Pace (broken foot), and wide receiver Santonio Holmes (suspension) -- they lost nose tackle Kris Jenkins to a week 1 ACL injury — the prospects are scary for opponents, especially when the Jets are already 3-0 within the division.
For the Patriots, we thought we saw who they really were during the first three weeks of the season against Cincinnati, the Jets, and Buffalo, going 2-1 by outscoring opponents 90-82: lots of passing offense directed by quarterback Tom Brady to offset a young and vulnerable defense. Then the Patriots beat the Dolphins October 4 in Miami 41-14, scoring touchdowns via rushing, passing, kickoff return, blocked field goal, and interception return. Despite giving up 400 yards, the Patriots defense was aggressive and opportunistic, giving hope to New England fans that maybe every game won’t be a shootout. But the Patriots are getting sparks from young players like running backs BenJarvus Green-Ellis and ex-Jet Danny Woodhead, tight ends Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez, kick returner Brandon Tate, linebacker Rob Ninkovich and safety Patrick Chung.
For the Dolphins, we now know quarterback Chad Henne can put up big numbers (665 yards passing, 5 TDs in weeks 3-4), but is also mistake-prone (4 INTs in weeks 3-4). The running game seems steady, but suddenly opposing defenses have caught up with and shut down the Wildcat scheme. The special teams are a mess (1 kickoff return for TD and 3 blocked kicks in weeks 3-4) leading to the firing of coach John Bonamego. Consistency doesn’t seem to be the Dolphins strong suit en route to a 2-2 start. They won their first two games at Buffalo and Minnesota, then lost the next two games at home to the Jets and Patriots (the Dolphins are the first team to accomplish this “feat” since the 1999 Pittsburgh Steelers). Already there’s talk of replacing Henne with Chad Pennington, but the Dolphins’ problems aren’t which Chad starts at quarterback as much as improving the special teams and defensive units.
For the 0-4 Bills, Buffalo is getting dark and cold early under first-year head coach Chan Gailey. During weeks 2, 3 and 4, the Bills have given up 38 points to the Packers, 38 points to the Patriots and 34 points to the Jets. They started the season with Trent Edwards at quarterback and Marshawn Lynch at running back. Now Edwards is in Jacksonville and Lynch is in Seattle. Harvard alum Ryan Fitzpatrick is now the starting quarterback and the Bills host Jacksonville for week 5. Does it get any better than this?
AFC North: When the season began, perhaps the biggest question was how far behind the Baltimore Ravens and Cincinnati Bengals would the Steelers be by the time quarterback Ben Roethlisberger returned from his 4-game suspension? Well, here we are entering week 5 and the Steelers share first place with the Ravens at 3-1 while the inconsistent Bengals are 2-2. How have the Steelers done it? Defense, defense and more defense, plus solid running from Rashard Mendenhall as they tried to make do with Dennis Dixon and Charlie Batch at quarterback. Now the Steelers get back Roethlisberger and the question remains what kind of offensive chemistry will they have for their week 6 game against Cleveland October 17 (they have a week 5 bye).
For the Ravens, we must take note how they beat the Jets and Steelers on the road, but we also need to take note of the 15-10 stinker they lost in Cincinnati on September 19. While defense is how the Ravens expect to win, it should be noted that the Jets, Bengals, Browns and Steelers all had success running the ball, perhaps a warning sign. But as long as running back Ray Rice nurses a banged-up knee, the Ravens may very well go as far as quarterback Joe Flacco takes them. While Flacco was horrid against Cincinnati, he was quite good against the Jets, Browns and Steelers, passing to wide receivers Anquan Boldin and T.J. Houshmandzadeh.
As for the Bengals, when they’re good, they’re pretty darned good. When they’re bad, well... You know the rest of the diddy. In week 1, the Bengals were torched in New England by a first half Patriots blitz that made a second half comeback harmless. In week 2, the offense did just enough to set up five Mike Nugent field goals in a 15-10 home win over the Ravens. In week 3, the offense again did just enough on the road to beat the Carolina Panthers 20-7. In week 4, despite a fantastic performance by quarterback Carson Palmer and wide receiver Terrell Owens (10 catches, 222 yards, 1 TD), the Bengals lost to the Browns in Cleveland, 23-20. Now the Bengals host the Tampa Bay Buccaneers for week 5. Which Bengals team will folks see? Offensive juggernaut? Offensive snooze? Staunch defensive effort? Defensive sieve? All or the above? None of the above?
In Cleveland, I don’t know which is more surprising: the Browns are 1-3, or the Browns first win came against the Bengals after starting the season hosting Tampa Bay and Kansas City. One thing is definitely certain with the Browns: they play tough and close games. Their four games so far have been decided by 3, 2, 7 and 3 points, which speaks positively for the competitive team general manager Mike Holmgren and head coach Eric Mangini put on the field. Since switching from Jake Delhomme (injured ankle) to Seneca Wallace at quarterback, the Browns are scoring more points on offense. As they prepare to host the Atlanta Falcons week 5, Holmgren and Mangini need to decide whether to return to the aging and less mobile Delhomme or stick with the younger and more mobile Wallace.
AFC South: So the Colts are 2-2. Should we worry? It depends on how you look at things. Yes, quarterback Peyton Manning is playing in vintage form, but the defense seems to be losing safeties at a startling rate. First Bob Sanders ruptures a bicep, then Melvin Bullitt suffers a fracture of his shoulder. The running game does well depending on the opponent, and while the defense gave up only 27 combined points in back-to-back wins over the New York Giants (week 2) and Denver Broncos (week 3), it’s already given up 34 and 31 points in road losses to the Houston Texans (week 1) and Jacksonville Jaguars (week 4). Now the Colts host the unbeaten and confident Chiefs in week 5. While we could question whether the Chiefs are legitimate enough to take on the Colts, we could also question whether the Colts have enough offense and defense to withstand a rejuvenated opponent who’s already upset two preseason favorites, the San Diego Chargers and San Francisco 49ers.
Is it overly surprising the Texans are 3-1? Not really, since many expected them to take the next step after last season’s 9-7 record. However, the Texans youth and inexperience as a top-echelon team showed when they lost at home week 3 to the then-winless Dallas Cowboys, 27-13. What we see so far is the Texans can score their share of points, and they need as many as possible to win, given they beat the Colts 34-24, Washington Redskins 30-27, and Oakland Raiders 31-24. What are we to think when they host the Giants this Sunday? Based on what the Giants did this past Sunday night to the Chicago Bears, the Texans better protect quarterback Matt Schaub or else there could be trouble. The Texans defense doesn’t seem to be stopping anyone, but now they get back linebacker Brian Cushing after a 4-game suspension, which should help against a Giants offense that hasn’t consistently found its rhythm yet.
The Tennessee Titans are 2-2, and it’s not quite clear what kind of team they are besides dirty, if you take seriously the accusations by the Giants and Denver Broncos. The Titans looked very physical beating the Raiders (week 1) and Giants (week 3), but looked sloppy and undisciplined in losses to the Steelers (week 2) and Broncos (week 4).
Also 2-2 are the Jaguars, beating the Broncos (week 1) and Colts (week 4) at home, but losing badly to the Chargers (week 2) and Philadelphia Eagles (week 3). After visiting the Bills Sunday, the Jaguars face a stretch of the Titans, Chiefs, Cowboys and Texans. By then we should know if David Garrard is still the starting quarterback or if he’s been replaced by Trent Edwards.
AFC West: This division has been full of surprises, particularly the 3-0 start by the Chiefs. Clearly the offense and defense are playing progressively better under new coordinators Charlie Weis and Romeo Crennel. But now the schedule gets more challenging with road games against the Colts and Texans after their week 4 bye. How the Chiefs play the next two weeks could tell us plenty about the rest of the season and how much that 3-0 start meant.
The 2-2 Chargers are supposed to be the class of the division and seem to be flexing muscle after its annual September snooze. Fresh off a 41-10 blasting of the Arizona Cardinals, the Chargers get ready to visit the Raiders and Rams before a three-week stretch hosting the Patriots and Titans, then visiting the Texans before a week 10 bye.
The 2-2 Broncos have already traveled east twice, losing at Jacksonville (week 1) and winning last week at Tennessee. In between they beat the Seattle Seahawks (week 2) and lost to the Colts (week 3) at home. Now they travel east again to play the Ravens in Baltimore Sunday before hosting the Jets October 17 and playing the 49ers in London October 24. So far the defense has given up 85 points while the offense has scored 86. The offensive unit relies heavily on the pass with quarterback Kyle Orton because the running game has produced very little (220 yards on 101 carries).
The 1-3 Raiders have only a week 2 16-14 home win against the Rams to smile about so far. They’ve lost 38-13 at the Titans (week 1), 24-23 at the Cardinals (week 3) and 31-24 to the Texans at home (week 4). They’ve already benched quarterback Jason Campbell (so much for those Jim Plunkett comparisons by owner Al Davis) for Bruce Gradkowski, and now face the Chargers (Sunday at home), 49ers, Broncos, Seahawks and Chiefs before their week 10 bye. If the Raiders are the dark horse team many predicted during the preseason, the next five games will either validate or make a mockery of that optimism.
NFC East: In my preview column I said a 9-7 record could very well be enough to win this division in a somewhat down season for all four teams. From what we’ve seen so far, there’s little reason to backtrack from that prediction. The Philadelphia Eagles, Washington Redskins and New York Giants are all 2-2; the Cowboys are 1-2. The Redskins, with new quarterback Donovan McNabb, have already beaten the Cowboys (week 1) and Eagles (week 4), but inexplicably lost to the Texans (week 2) and Rams (week 3). The Eagles, after trading McNabb, started the season with Kevin Kolb, switched to Michael Vick during a week 1 loss at home to the Green Bay Packers after Kolb suffered a concussion, then were forced to switch back to Kolb during their week 4 loss at home to the Redskins after Vick injured his ribs. While the Eagles can’t win at home, they’ve beaten the Lions (week 2) and Jaguars (week 3) on the road, led by impressive performances by Vick. The Giants started the season beating the Panthers at home, then lost at the Colts (week 2) and at home to the Titans (week 3) before smothering the Chicago Bears at home (week 4). The Cowboys started 0-2, losing at Washington and at home to the Bears, before beating the Texans in Houston.
Now the Cowboys are back from their week 4 bye and go on an nine-week stretch that includes the Giants (weeks 7 and 10), Titans (week 5), Vikings (week 6), Packers (week 9), Saints (week 12) and Colts (week 13). Before their week 8 bye, the Eagles visit the 49ers (week 5) and Titans (week 7), and host the Atlanta Falcons (week 6). The Redskins host the Packers (week 5) and Colts (week 6) before visiting the Bears (week 7) and Lions (week 8). Before their week 8 bye, the Giants visit the state of Texas twice (Houston, week 5; Dallas, week 7) and host the Lions in-between (week 6).
All four teams have trouble with their running games. The Eagles don’t run enough, the Cowboys don’t run consistently, the Giants running backs are plagued by fumbles and the Redskins don’t have healthy enough running backs. In terms of defense, the Cowboys and Redskins generally do well, the Giants suffer from feast or famine, and the Eagles hope the offense can keep outscoring what the defense gives up.
Health also continues to be an issue: quarterback for the Eagles, running back for the Redskins, offensive line for the Cowboys, almost every position for the Giants (except for rookie punter Matt Dodge, and Giants fans might want to work him over if he doesn’t improve).
NFC North: Well, well, well... Things haven’t been going smoothly in Minnesota, have they? Brett Favre returns from ankle surgery and his version of training camp in Mississippi and finds his favorite receiver, Sidney Rice, gone for the first eight weeks after offseason hip surgery. Then after being beaten to a pulp by Saints and Dolphins pass rushers, the Vikings start 0-2 and Favre’s wondering if he made the right decision to get off his tractor and come back north for “one more season” (C’mon... Football seasons and Brett Favre are like Lays potato chips. You can’t stop at one). After beating the Lions 24-10 at home during week 3, the Vikings still needed to shore up their weaknesses during the week 4 bye.
Helloooooo Randy Moss! Yes, the Vikings sent a third-round 2011 draft pick to the Patriots for the grumpy wide receiver who grouses about a contract extension. So, for the first time since 2004, Randy Moss will wear a Vikings jersey when they visit the Jets Monday night. Will Moss help? Who knows? There will be timing and chemistry issues to work out with Favre, but on the bright side, Moss is already familiar with the Jets secondary, be it Darrelle Revis or Antonio Cromartie covering him, as they did in week 2. After the Jets, the Vikings host the Cowboys before visiting the Packers and Patriots (do you think head coach Bill Belichick has some special coverage plans in store?).
As of now, the top of this division belongs to the Packers and Bears, both 3-1. The Bears beat the Packers in week 3, then were beaten into submission by the Giants in week 4. Quarterbacks Jake Cutler and Todd Collins were both knocked out with injuries in the Giants game, but it is believed Cutler’s recovered enough from his concussion to start Sunday against the Panthers in Carolina. But the Giants game exposed the Bears offense and their considerable limitations. The offensive line is a mess with key starters injured and replacements playing out of position. Cutler very much loves Mike Martz’s new offensive scheme, but he simply doesn’t have wide receivers talented enough to fully emulate the “Greatest show on turf” act the Rams ran 1999-2003. Worse, the Bears can’t seem to run the ball with any consistency, not good for a team that plays in Chicago during the months of November and December. The Bears host the Seahawks and Redskins to round out October, perhaps an opportunity to fatten up the won-loss record against mediocre opponents, or perhaps more opportunities to expose the Bears for being a mediocre team themselves.
As for the Packers, they’ve looked good scoring points in bunches against the Eagles (week 1), Bills (week 2) and Lions (week 3). Unfortunately, they lost Ryan Grant to injury in week 1, so the running game is nonexistent. This forces quarterback Aaron Rodgers to provide all the offense, which again is not a good sign when you play in Wisconsin during the months of November and December. As good as the defense was last year, it seems to have slipped a bit so far, giving up 68 points combined to the Eagles, Bears and Lions. Next up are the Redskins, Dolphins, Vikings, Jets and Cowboys before their week 10 bye. Better hope Mr. Rodgers is ready to throw and score points early and often.
As for the 0-4 Lions, they are at least competitive, losing to the Bears (week 1), Eagles (week 2) and Packers (week 4) by a combined ten points. Now they host the very improved Rams on Sunday, and we need to wonder when the Lions have solid opportunities left to win a few games: the Redskins (week 8), Bills (week 10) and Buccaneers (week 15) are the best ones. Once again, the injury bug bit quarterback Matt Stafford, the defense still gives up too many yards and points, and the running game is anemic.
NFC South: Most folks believed if any team could repeat as champ of this division it would be the defending Super Bowls champion Saints, but a funny thing has happened along the way. Although the Saints are 3-1, the offense isn’t scoring at the explosive clip it did last year, the running game suffers, primarily from missing an injured Reggie Bush, and the defense is more vulnerable without injured safety Darren Sharper. After squeaking by the Vikings (week 1), 49ers (week 2) and Panthers (week 4), the Saints now visit the Cardinals and Buccaneers before hosting the Browns (week 7) and Steelers (week 8).
The 3-1 Atlanta Falcons have shown preseason playoff predictions to be well-founded, having beat the Cardinals, 49ers and Saints after an overtime loss at Pittsburgh in week 1. The Falcons offense shows decent balance and production from both the passing of quarterback Matt Ryan and the running of Michael Turner. The defense has only given up 60 points so far. Now the Falcons visit Cleveland and Philadelphia before hosting Cincinnati (week 7) and Tampa Bay (week 8). The Falcons have won close games (49ers, Saints) and blowouts (Cardinals). They’re relatively healthy so far, so the next four weeks are a good opportunity to stay on top of the division.
At 2-1, the Buccaneers are a pleasant surprise, beating the Browns and Panthers before the Steelers brought them down to Earth in a 38-13 week 3 home loss. Coming from their week 4 bye, the Bucs visit the Bengals (week 5), Cardinals (week 8), Falcons (week 9), 49ers (week 11) and Ravens (week 12), and host the Saints (week 6), Rams (week 7), Panthers (week 10) and Falcons (week 13). By then we should know how far these Bucs have improved from last year’s 3-13 performance. So far the defense seems to hold its own against less physical teams and second-year quarterback Josh Freeman seems more sure of himself.
At 0-4, the Carolina Panthers have lost to the Giants, Bucs, Bengals and Saints. The offense can’t seem to produce. The running game is anemic, and they’re switched quarterbacks from Matt Moore to rookie Jimmy Clausen. The defense wears down because it’s on the field too much. None of these observations bode well for head coach John Fox, who’s in the final year of his contract. In search of their first win, the Panthers host the Bears on Sunday, then host the 49ers after their week 6 bye. After that it doesn’t get a lot easier, as the Panthers visit the Rams (week 8), Bucs (week 10), Browns (week 12) and Seahawks (week 13) and host the Saints (week 9) and Ravens (week 11).
NFC West: In what was expected to be a wide-open division after the Cardinals lost Kurt Warner, Antrel Rolle, Anquan Boldin and Karlos Dansby, it’s a little surprising to see these Cardinals sharing first place. Granted the Cardinals, Seahawks and Rams are all 2-2, and the preseason favorite 49ers are 0-4. Go Figure?
Despite the Cardinals having a quarterback dilemma between mediocre Derek Anderson and rookie Max Hall, they’re managed to eke out wins over the Rams (week 1) and Raiders (week 3). However, true to a 2-2 team, the Cardinals were outscored 82-17 in week 2 and 4 stinkers at the Falcons and Chargers. Now they host the Saints before their week 6 bye. Playing the Seahawks (weeks 7 and 10) in addition to the Bucs (week 8), Vikings (week 9) and Chiefs (week 11) should give us a better idea as to what kind of team the Cardinals are... Then again, maybe it won’t.
The Seahawks seem to have new energy and focus under new head coach Pete Carroll. They’ve played spirited and explosive football in beating the 49ers (week 1) and Chargers (week 3) at home, but stunk up the joint in losses at the Broncos (week 2) and Rams (week 4). But the defense is motivated, quarterback Matt Hasselbeck seems healthy and focused, and ex-Jet Leon Washington has been a bonus at kick returner and third down back. After their week 5 bye, the Seahawks play the Cardinals twice (weeks 7 and 10) as well as the Bears (week 6), Raiders (week 8) and Giants (week 9).
Could it be that our St. Louis football team is no longer the cuddly Lamb Chops? News flash: The Rams are for real. The defense is starting to play like a Steve Spagnuolo unit and rookie quarterback Sam Bradford knows how to run an offense. It’s still a worry that the Rams need to pass so much behind a relatively weak and inexperienced offensive line, but so far, so good. After starting 0-2 with close losses to the Cardinals and Raiders, the Rams have handily beaten the Redskins (week 3) and Seahawks (week 4). Now the Rams play the Lions, Chargers, Bucs and Panthers before their week 9 bye.
In what’s been the biggest disappointment of the 2010 season so far, the 49ers have not only lost their first four games to the Seahawks, Saints, Chiefs and Falcons, they’ve lost close and by a lot. The offense can’t produce anything beyond turnovers, costing coordinator Jimmy Raye his job after a 31-10 week 3 loss in Kansas City. On the bright side, the 49ers are only two games behind the divisional leaders in what is a relatively weak division. On the bad side, the 49ers play the Eagles, Raiders, Panthers and Broncos before their week 9 bye.
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