It’s January, the month for football gluttony -- Sports Thoughts for January 13, 2011

Now that we’re finally done with the BCS National Championship Game, we can reflect back on the 2010 college football season and decide if we got our money’s worth. I, for one, feel more and more gypped with each season in this world of the BCS system. No matter what anyone says, Monday night’s Auburn-Oregon game was not worth the wait. Sometimes 22-19 is a nip-and-tuck thriller. Sometimes 22-19 is a memorable defensive battle. Sometimes 22-19 goes down as one for the ages. Sometimes 22-19 goes in my book as a big yawn. In a way, why should we be surprised by this performance from two rusty teams who hadn’t played in approximately six weeks. Throughout the game, I kept wondering three things:
(1) What possessed the Vegas odds-makers to maintain the over-under at 70 points for this game?
(2) Why are the Oregon players wearing yellow police tape on their ankles and feet?
(3) Do SEC teams ever lose in this stupid game?

Perhaps I’ve become too jaded and grouchy about football bowl games. I’m not really in favor of a college football playoff system, and I’m definitely not in favor of this current set-up. Yes, I’m your standard curmudgeon, pining for the old days when conference champions played in their corresponding fruit or foliage bowl, on their traditional television networks, and we didn’t have a zillion silly bowl games to placate mediocre football programs. Give me a New Years Day of the Cotton, Rose and Orange Bowls on CBS, ABC and NBC, where I can watch Big Ten and Pac Ten teams play where they naturally belong. When you set up a cockamamie system where TCU plays in Pasadena rather than Dallas, and we’re forced to sit in front of ESPN for nearly 100 hours of games that include such classics as the GoDaddy.com Bowl, you’re upsetting the natural order of things, by golly.

Last, if we’re going to maintain this silly system of 32 bowl games to reward more than a dozen 6-6 teams, bowl organizers need to find more appropriate corporate sponsors. Granted, this is from the perspective of a middle-aged man, but instead of such names like the Beef ‘O’ Brady’s St. Petersburg Bowl and the Little Caesar’s Pizza Bowl, let’s be more practical and offer a Ben-Gay Bowl or Alka-Seltzer Bowl. Tostitos BCS National Championship Bowl? Ha! By the time we get through 24 days of football games and junk food, we’d be better served by Gas-X. I know I would.

So folks are calling Andrew Luck stupid for deciding to return to Stanford for his junior year of football and complete his degree in architectural design? Sure... Sticking around to complete a degree, on the university’s dime — and a pretty prestigious university at that -- rather than toss away a sure thing for a potential pot of gold and a few years of getting his head kicked in as quarterback for the Carolina Panthers, is stupid. Please, please... Some football fans really crack me up.

And to all of those football fans eager to have Andrew Luck’s head examined... Did any of you once hear ESPN mention Cam Newton’s academic major at Auburn during the BCS Title Game? Yeah, I didn’t think so. Far be it from me to call out hypocrisy, but...

Are you all ready for this weekend’s NFL divisional playoffs? I know I am. If you do an archive search of my Twitter account, you will see that on January 5, I predicted to Warren Sapp of the NFL Network and Showtime Sports that the Seahawks, Jets, Chiefs and Packers would win their wild-card round games. That makes me 3-1 so far for the post-season (thanks for nothing, Kansas City). Folks call the Seahawks’ 41-36 win over the Saints an upset for the ages, but I don’t. New Orleans on the road is a bad bet for the playoffs; the Saints are now 0-4 in their history. Seattle in January is cold and damp, hardly the kind of climate the Saints enjoy in the Superdome, and let’s face it... The Saints defense hasn’t played like it did in 2009 all season long. You usually don’t have the good fortune of 45 takeaways and 7 touchdowns two seasons in a row. Ask the Arizona Cardinals defense how 2009 compared to their super bowl season of 2008. Having to play in Seattle with a team that wasn’t running on all cylinders was the perfect storm for the Saints, and the result was 41-36 and a long winter home.

Then again, the Saints didn’t just hand it over to the Seahawks. Pete Carroll’s team needed to play way above the level of their 7-9 regular season record. Now the Seahawks have hope and a puncher’s chance in Chicago on Sunday afternoon. In theory, the Bears should be able to handle the Seahawks at Soldier Field. In theory, the Seahawks should run out of pixie dust after the long flight to Chicago. But another eerie perfect storm may be waiting for the Bears. After all, the Seahawks came to Soldier Field and beat the Bears 23-20 back in week 6. Who knows which Jay Cutler will show up at quarterback for the Bears? Is he due for one of his ill-timed implosions? Perhaps he is, but something tells me the Bears should be able to overcome it. Can Matthew Hasselbeck duplicate his passing performance (22-35, 272 yards, 4 TDs)? The Bears defense isn’t necessarily the Monsters of the Midway. The Jets scored 34 against them. The Patriots scored 36. Sunday’s game could be the highest scoring of all four playoff matchups.

One more tidbit to think about... Has anyone noticed Seattle’s Brandon Stokley continues to be a big-game receiver year after year after year? No matter the season or which uniform he’s wearing, if there’s a game-changing touchdown catch involved, you somehow know Stokley is on the receiving end.

Who do I think the Bears will meet for the NFC title game next week? I picked the Green Bay Packers back in September, and I see no reason to backtrack on that prediction now. Of all the remaining teams in the NFC pool, the Packers have the most consistent (albeit cheating) defense and seem to be peaking at the right time. The Bears and Falcons never really faced adversity all season long. The Packers lost their running game in the first week of the season, held together through a tough November stretch, then convincingly beat the Giants, Bears and Eagles over the past three weeks. Add in the unexpected contributions of running back James Starks (123 yards rushing vs Philadelphia), and the Packers offense is more than quarterback Aaron Rodgers. Yes, the Falcons are 20-2 at home with Matt Ryan at quarterback, but their 20-17 last-minute win over the Packers November 28 told me more about how tough the Packers are than how dominant the Falcons are. Saturday night’s game will be close, but there’s a good reason why Vegas odds-makers have the Packers as the favorites.

My NFC predictions?
Packers 24, Falcons 20
Bears 31, Seahawks 26

This brings us to the AFC and the familiarity and contempt associated with divisional rivalries. Saturday afternoon gives us the rubber match between the Baltimore Ravens and the Pittsburgh Steelers. On October 3, the Ravens beat the Steelers in Pittsburgh, 17-14, and on December 5, the Steelers returned the favor in Baltimore, 13-10. It doesn’t take a genius to figure out that three points is usually the margin that separates these two teams, no matter where they play. In fact, six of the past seven games between these teams have been decided by four points or less.

Now that we know the margin of victory, which team wins at Heinz Field?

Consider this: Steelers quarterback Ben Roethlisberger is 8-2 in his career against the Ravens, missed their October 3 meeting due to league suspension, and played with a broken foot (and broke his nose) during the December 5 rematch. Somehow Big Ben finds a way to make the plays needed to win, while Ravens quarterback Joe Flacco finds a way to make a big mistake down the stretch and give the Steelers one extra chance.

Prediction?
Steelers 14, Ravens 12

This finally brings us to the last of this weekend’s playoff games, the Jets against the Patriots at Foxboro’s Gillette Stadium. Talk about two teams that absolutely dislike each other. Talk about a rivalry. Talk about TALK, and TALK, and TALK...

Yes, Gang Green turns up the volume each chance it gets, no matter the day, hour or how many microphones are present. Rex Ryan’s taking on Bill Belichick, Tom Brady, and perhaps the entire state of Massachusetts. The war of words goes back and forth between New York and Boston, some of the rhetoric a little too personal and over the line.

Allow me to summarize and simplify things for you:
Rex Ryan to Patriots coaches, players and fans: Pththththththth!!!!!!!!!!
Bill Belichick to Rex Ryan: Pththththththth!!!!!!!!!!
Rex Ryan to Tom Brady: Pththththththth!!!!!!!!!!
Tom Brady to Rex Ryan: Pththththththth!!!!!!!!!!
Antonio Cormartie to Tom Brady: $@#%&!
Tom Brady to Antonio Cromartie: Pththththththth!!!!!!!!!!

Now let’s discuss football...
Two bits of information are relevant to the discussion:
Week 2 (at Meadowlands): Jets, 28, Patriots 14
Week 13 (at Foxboro): Patriots 45, Jets 3

Of all the playoff games this weekend, the Jets and Patriots are the only matchup between teams where previous games weren’t close contests. Rex Ryan said, “we kicked their ass at home, and they kicked our ass there.” Bill Belichick said, “it’s now 2 of 3, like it should be.” Were the Jets really 14 points better than the Pats in week 2? Were the Pats really 42 points better than the Jets in week 13? Which performance is closest to the reality we’ll see on Sunday?

If we truly believe the week 13 massacre correctly reflects the talent difference between both teams, we should expect the Patriots to win by four touchdowns, but that’s not likely to happen. First, the Jets really weren’t as bad as they showed back in December, and the Pats really aren’t as dominant. Second, the Jets have pride at stake. Third, the law of averages has to catch up with the Patriots, doesn’t it?

Do I have any historical inspiration from a rivalry that’s knotted at 51-51-1 since 1960? Yes, the 1979 season. In week 2, the Jets traveled to Foxboro and lost 56-3. Think about it... 56-3. What took place December 5 wasn’t even the Jets worst loss against the Patriots! In case you’re wondering, the Jets have had their share of ugly losses in Foxboro: 55-21 (1978), 41-7 (1976), and 42-20 (1987).

Well, by week 15, the Jets were 6-8, playing out the string, and hosted an 8-6 Patriots team with slim playoff hopes. The final score at Shea Stadium? Jets 27, Patriots 26. I sat in old Shea that day, two rows behind the Patriots bench. As the final minutes ticked off, a sold-out crowd stood and serenaded the Patriots with “Good-bye playoffs” to the tune of “Goodnight Ladies.” Was that game one for the annals of professional football? Hardly. It was cold, dark, damp and windy that December afternoon, and the game was fairly sloppy, but that one-point Jet win served as some form of redemption 13 weeks after a 53-point debacle.

Why do I bring this game up? In the words of Jets wide receiver Braylon Edwards, “We always knew. ... It’s not even about revenge. That’s regular season. Who cares? Yeah, we got embarrassed, but that’s the regular season. This is the playoffs. ... If we beat them by one point, it’s a win. They can have the 42-point win. We just want a one-point win.”

Do I think the Jets can get their one-point win? Yes, I do. I also think the Jets can win by more, or the Patriots can win in another blow-out. Anything is possible with these two teams, but unlike the Vegas odds-makers, I believe the combination of rivalry, offensive and defensive schemes, pride (and ego), and a trip to the AFC title game will raise the level of play and give us perhaps the tightest and best battle of the weekend.

My prediction?
Jets 24, Patriots 23

Anything’s possible in the NFL playoffs. Hopefully all four games will provide us a great weekend of watching.