July 4th is traditionally one of the benchmark points in the MLB season folks take time to assess divisional races and teams. I’m not sure if this is a good reference point anymore since we’ve just gone through more than two weeks of interleague play to interrupt the rhythm. But teams have now played approximately 75-80 games so far, so a midpoint is still a midpoint.
Let’s take a look at each divisional race and reflect...
AL East:
I think most of us expected the AL East to be MLB’s best and most competitive division, and the predictions were not wrong. The Yankees, Rays, and Red Sox have three of the best records in MLB so far and only two games separate them. Even the Blue Jays are hanging tough so far, only seven games back. For a while it seemed as if the Yankees and Rays were going to run away and hide from the rest of the division, and then Boston woke up from its slumber, along with David Ortiz’s bat. On the other hand, the Orioles continue to fall further and further back into the abyss of the divisional cellar.
But let’s not kid ourselves. Each team — New York, Tampa Bay, Boston and Toronto -- has its flaws which can or will come back to haunt them. Age happens to be one factor, either too much of it or not enough of it. No matter how you look at it, you still need wee-wee pads around the house with young pups or old dogs, so all four teams are in the same boat of sorts.
The slowly fading Jays are somewhat playing over their heads and are really two years away from reaching their full potential with their youth movement. Maybe this will encourage manager Cito Gaston to stick around a few more years and not retire at the end of this season. More importantly, maybe this will encourage Toronto locals to show up in bigger numbers at Rogers Centre and support the team better than they have the past several years. I happen to be of the philosophy that winning baseball and fan support go hand-in-hand, a sports symbiosis. As the team plays better, fans need to show more support. As fans show more support, the excitement becomes contagious and inspires even better play. But the reality is that the Jays will need several breaks to overtake the big boys of the division.
However, one look at the seasons outfielders Jose Bautista (20 HR) and Vernon Wells (19 HR) are having so far, one could imagine a 1-2 power punch carrying the Jays beyond expectations. Unfortunately, the Jays are near the bottom of the AL in batting and on-base percentage, and their pitching staff is still fairly young and short on depth.
The Red Sox may be hot, but one can’t help but notice they’re only .500 against divisional foes. In a division where the Yankees and Rays are both winning two-thirds of their divisional games (granted the Yankees are 10-2 against the Orioles and the Rays are 5-1), the Red Sox need to pick up the pace against teams they will mutually beat up on during the remaining months of the regular season. Furthermore, the Red Sox need to do better than the 4-5 record they have so far against the cellar dwelling Orioles. As the season wears on the best friend a contender has is weak opponents to feast on. Odds are very good the wild card team will come from the AL East and someone will be left without a chair when the music stops October 3. Given Boston’s inability to win games within the division at a higher rate this could be a haunting statistic through the summer.
Also, recent injuries to second baseman Dustin Pedroia (broken foot), catcher Victor Martinez (broken thumb) and starter Clay Buchholz (hyperextended knee) could challenge the Red Sox’ roster depth, which isn’t what it used to be. This year’s version was built by GM Theo Epstein for pitching, speed, and defense. With Pedroia, Martinez and Buchholz out for any extended period of time, the heart of Boston’s lineup has been deeply wounded right through the middle. Plus, beyond Buchholz and Jon Lester, the starting rotation has consistency issues with Daisuke Matsuzaka, and closer Jonathan Papelbon suddenly seems tired.
As for the Tampa Bay Rays, they are sometimes a enigma. The Rays still have the best road record in MLB, but are barely
.500 at home. The Rays have the best and brightest collection of starting pitchers (led by David Price) and a very talented everyday lineup, but they’ve also been no-hit twice in approximately six weeks and lead the league in striking out. Outfielder B.J. Upton can demonstrate a flare for the heroic one night, then drive teammates and manager Joe Maddon nuts with lackadaisical play the next. Case in point was this past Sunday’s 2-1 home loss to Arizona. Upton didn’t exactly play centerfield with gusto when Gerardo Parra hit a fifth inning two-run inside-the-park home run for the Diamondbacks’ runs. When Upton came back to the Rays dugout at the end of the inning’s top half, third baseman Evan Longoria, the main face, if not one of the main faces of the team, got in Upton’s face and scolded him for loafing. Although both players needed to be separated (no, this was hardly the classic confrontation like Reggie and Billy Martin during a 1977 game at Fenway, or any confrontation involving the Cubs’ Carlos Zambrano), the point was more than made. The Rays, for all their talent, are still a very young team, perhaps playing more than a few years ahead of schedule relative to the master plan. Joe Maddon’s been pushing all the right buttons and making all the right calls, but the baseball season is a 162-game roller coaster, and the highs and lows swing even further for a younger team that doesn’t always play the most consistently. June has been rather tough month (including 7-11 in interleague play) compared to the red-hot start in April and May, but even back then the Rays were barely .500 at home and were victims to a perfect on Mother’s Day by Oakland’s Dallas Braden. Chances are more than good the Rays will rebound, but Maddon needs to keep a close eye on his young team and its erratic pulse.
It also doesn’t help that owner Stuart Sternberg is now making noise about a new stadium for his team. Granted the Rays are enjoying success on the field, but the worst thing to do during a season in a modestly weak baseball market and an ongoing recession is to complain about your stadium and suggest an interest in relocating out of downtown St. Petersburg. I admit, I have a personal stake in this story. I lived in the Tampa Bay region for 10 years and paid more than my fair share of state and local taxes to build Tropicana Field. Having driven by the domed facility countless times as well as having attended a Rays game in the late-1990s, I happen to like the place, enjoyed watching baseball there (as well as arena football), and think Sternberg is picking a fight he can’t win with local politicians and baseball fans. The Rays are barely a decade old, have really only become a good team in the past 3-4 years, and the stadium is hardly old enough or paid for enough for Sternberg to want something better.
Why is this a factor in the divisional race? It’s an added distraction the players don’t need while they’ve slipped from first to third in what will be a very heated race.
This brings us to the polar opposite of the Rays, the Yankees. Where the Rays suffer from youth, the Yankees suffer from age and the persistent aches and pains that nag an older roster. The Rays are road warriors who struggle at home; the Yankees dominate at home but struggle away from the Bronx. The Rays went 7-11 against the National League; the Yankees went 11-7. While the Rays have a dynamic and solid five-man starting rotation, the Yankees continue to hold their breath and monitor their ulcers as A.J. Burnett and Javier Vasquez continue to pitch like the mound is cursed. As Derek Jeter and Robinson Cano are having great years, Jorge Posada and Nick Johnson have been among the walking wounded. Alex Rodriguez and Mark Teixeira are both having down years so far at the plate and with their power numbers, and manager Joe Girardi’s bench forces him to play glorified DHs in the field. Thus is life with the Bronx Bombers — emphasis on bombers — as even with quality front-line pitching from C.C. Sabathia, Andy Pettitte and Phil Hughes, not to mention Mo Rivera being Mo Rivera, this roster was built to outslug opponents. Unfortunately, the outslugging isn’t always according to plan, and isn’t necessarily coming from the players expected. Also, the Yankees lead all of MLB in runners left on base. Second-worst team? The Red Sox.
Nonetheless, the Yankees head into July with MLB’s best record, and there really aren’t major signs this will change as summer progresses into fall. However, there are questions for the Yankees to ponder between now and the July 31 non-waiver trading deadline:
1. Can Jeter and Cano keep up the pace?
2. Can A-Rod and Teixeira finally find their grooves?
3. Does Pettitte have enough in the tank?
4. What to do about Hughes and his innings limit?
5. Which Joba Chamberlain will show up on any given night?
6. Is there enough bullpen depth to hold the fort until Mo?
7. Will there be enough healthy outfielders to get to October?
8. How many DHs can Girardi juggle?
9. Can Posada stay healthy and content sharing catching duties with Francisco Cervelli?
10. Is there enough Prozac to fix Burnett and Vasquez?
11. Is there enough Maalox for Girardi on days Burnette and Vasquez pitch?
12. Does Brian Cashman really have a “payroll budget”?
13. Can these guys play better than .500 against Tampa Bay, Boston and Toronto?
14. If “No” to #13, can they play the Orioles more than 7 more times?
Given the entire scope of this division, unless the Rays completely implode, the Red Sox go on a tear reminiscent of the ‘51 Giants or ‘78 Yankees, or the Yankees suddenly see the guts of their roster all go on the DL, I foresee this division coming down to the Yankees and Rays, where second place likely gets the wild card. Who ends up winning the division and who ends up with the wild card? If the Rays can regroup and ride their starting rotation, I give them the edge similar to how they outlasted the Red Sox in ‘08.
AL Central:
What looked like a bland race between the Twins and Tigers suddenly got interesting, and “interesting” is not necessarily a good thing. The Tigers finally leapfrogged the Twins into first place Monday night but possibly lost closer Joel Zumaya in the process to an elbow injury. Losing Zumaya for the remainder of the season will be devastating to Jim Leyland’s Tigers, because the Tigers don’t have the pitching versatility the Twins had when they lost closer Joe Nathan to elbow surgery during spring training. The Tigers’ starting rotation, even with Justin Verlander and Armando Galarraga having good seasons, doesn’t really strike fear in opposing hitters. While it’s never good to bet against a Jim Leyland team, one has to wonder if the Tigers can slug their way to the divisional title, especially when they only play .500 within the division — 10-7 against Cleveland and Kansas City, 4-9 against Minnesota and Chicago.
When the Twins lost Joe Nathan for the season one had to think the division might be up for grabs with the Twins gasping, but until the past two weeks of interleague play Minnesota was cruising along just fine. Now they’re in a three-team fight, which probably would’ve been the case anyway, but now it looks a little more dicey than a month ago. Clearly Ron Gardenhire’s team is built for consistency, and having the AL’s second-best pitching staff (statistically) helps. We all know the Twins hit well for average and have a formidable lineup led by Joe Mauer and Justin Morneau, but the starting rotation of Kevin Slowey, Francisco Liriano, Nick Blackburn, Scott Baker, and Carl Pavano — yes, please stop laughing — CARL PAVANO — happens to be solid and a combined 36-29. While the Twins’ rotation will hardly remind us of the dominant foursome Earl Weaver used to toss out during the late-1960s and early-1970s in Baltimore, these starters hold their own, don’t walk many batters, and eat lots of innings to conserve the bullpen. It’s also worth noting that Minnesota is 19-10 so far within the division, 9-5 against the Tigers and White Sox. There’s a reason why the Twins continue to be either first or second in the division the past few years, and we’re looking at that reason again this season — players move on via free agency or are lost to injury, yet Ron Gardenhire continues the Tom Kelly mantra of reliable pitching and steady production at the plate. Oh, and it also helps the Twins have committed the fewest errors in MLB. Second-best team? The Yankees.
The most intriguing team in this divisional mix is the White Sox, fresh off an 11-game winning streak. While the Twins and Tigers have health issues, the White Sox are relatively healthy albeit missing closer Bobby Jenks who’s on bereavement leave. The problem with the White Sox is consistency. Their hitting and pitching stats rank in the bottom half of the AL. Starters John Danks, Freddy Garcia and Jake Peavy are having reasonably solid seasons, Mark Buehrle’s having an up-and-down season so far, and Gavin Floyd’s been disappointing. Paul Konerko’s among league leaders in power numbers, but no one else is necessarily hitting for good average. They don’t strike out much, but they also don’t get many walks either resulting in a semi-mediocre on-base percentage. They’re 13-17 within the division (5-5 against the Twins and Tigers). Unlike Minnesota and Detroit, Chicago’s barely .500 at home, but they’re the only team with a winning road record. It’s hard to tell if the White Sox are the team before the 11-game win streak or the team that won 11 straight. So much about the White Sox is a mirror image with manager Ozzie Guillen. When the White Sox are playing well and wining, Ozzie’s at his most entertaining. When the White Sox are struggling and losing... Well, let’s just say Ozzie’s just as entertaining, but in a different way.
If there’s one thing all three teams have in common is solid managing and managers who all believe in their players. This will have to be the case for all three teams since none will likely be major players in trades before July 31. With the way the AL East is playing, odds are only one playoff spot will come from the AL Central. If all three teams can maintain relative good health through the summer, chances are we may see the Tigers, Twins and White Sox all neck and neck into the final week of September. However, Zumaya’s elbow injury doesn’t look good, and if he’s gone for the season I don’t see Jim Leyland having enough arms to make up the deficit. At the start of the season the smart money was on the Twins. Chances are they’re still the bet when the season ends, simply because they’ve managed to ride the ups and downs better than Detroit or Chicago, and because they can beat the Tigers and White Sox more consistently than vice versa.
AL West:
It’s usually so hard to judge this division because we always start the spring with hopes for turnarounds in Oakland and Seattle only to be disappointed, so we usually pick the Angels as the default favorite. Well, true to form, the A’s and Mariners started off their seasons with one foot on a banana peel — in the Mariners’ case, a pillow and blankie in the clubhouse for the now-retired Ken Griffey, Jr. -- and haven’t recovered. The Angels started slowly, recovered, then lost first baseman Kendry Morales to a freak broken leg after a walk-off home run celebration, then took off on another winning stretch. After losing starter John Lackey to Boston via free agency, the Angels once again have solid pitching from Ervin Santana and Jered Weaver, and make-do with inconsistent Joel Pinero, Joe Sanders and Scott Kazmir. The hitting is fairly consistent and productive, but Angels hitters do more than their share of striking out and failing to get walks, hence a team on-base percentage as mediocre as the White Sox. They’re 14-9 within the division, but 13-6 against Oakland and Seattle.
That means the Angels are 1-3 so far against the team ahead of them, the Texas Rangers (14-6 within the division, 11-5 against Oakland and Seattle), which is one primary reason the Rangers are 4.5 games ahead heading into July, the biggest divisional lead in MLB. Another primary reason is the Rangers play much better at home than the Angels do (28-12 vs 22-18). Both Los Angeles and Texas have better than .500 road records. The old axiom of don’t expect to win your division if you can’t beat the competition rings true here. Until the Angels can beat the Rangers, and granted, four games so far is hardly enough of an indicator, the Rangers will likely continue to lead this division.
There are other telling reasons for why the Rangers are in first. The Rangers lead the AL in batting average, are second in on-base percentage, third in RBIs, fourth in stolen bases, are fourth in team ERA, fourth in pitched strikeouts, have given up the third-fewest home runs, and second-fewest walks. The Angels ranks are almost all on the opposite end of the AL in these categories. Just like the Twins lineup is led by the solid 1-2 punch of Morneau and Mauer, the Rangers are led by two players having incredible comeback seasons, Josh Hamilton and Vladimir Guerrero. The Rangers starting rotation of Scott Feldman, Colby Lewis, Tommy Hunter, Frank Francisco and C. J. Lewis is no more imposing than Minnesota’s rotation, but it’s equally effective.
Are their any worries ahead for the Rangers? Of course. Let’s start with the ownership situation as aspiring Mensa member Tom Hicks tries to unload a team in bankruptcy (thanks A-Rod and your budget-busting contract in 2001) into the guiding hands of Nolan Ryan and his group. Could this be a distraction for the players? If the Rays whining about a new stadium somewhere other than downtown St. Petersburg could disrupt things in Tampa Bay, why couldn’t the sale of the Rangers do the same in Arlington? After all, isn’t everything bigger in Texas, including headaches?
What about the Texas heat as summer progresses? It’s historically been a problem for the Rangers, so one must always keep the weather factor in mind. What about health? BIG factor. Hamilton and Guerrero are both coming off injury-marred seasons, and both are injury-prone. Who knows how long Big Vlad’s back can continue to hold out? What about pitching depth? It’s true the Rangers are worried about how far their rotation can ultimately take them, and rumors have floated about them trying to get into the trade discussions with Houston for Roy Oswalt. But the Rangers are also in a fiscal bind, so they may not be able to make any major deals by July 31 without upsetting the economics and relationship it has with the other MLB owners. Also, how will Ron Washington manage as the race goes on and gets tight? The Angels likely won’t fade away and allow the Rangers to run away and hide with the division. Given Washington’s off-season involving disclosure of a failed drug test for cocaine, it has to stick in the back of the mind as to whether he can handle the pressure.
Of course, the biggest worry for the Rangers is the Los Angeles Angels, simply because Mike Scioscia is still one of the best managers, Arte Moreno is an owner who doesn’t like to stand pat if the team needs to improve, and GM Tony Reagins knows how to get the job done. This division likely will go down to the wire, but if the Rangers keep doing what they’ve been doing so far, I think they can outlast the Angels. Seven games between these those teams in July, and seven more in the final 13 games of the regular season should settle the matter.
NL West:
We clearly have a four-team race between San Diego, San Francisco, Los Angeles, and Colorado, but this division will ultimately come down to who has the best record within the division. At the moment, the Padres are 15-13, Giants, 8-17, Dodgers 21-5, and the Rockies 16-14. All four teams have very good home records, but only the Padres play well on the road. Are there any trends or red flags? The Padres are 7-1 against San Francisco, 3-10 against the Dodgers and Rockies. The Giants are 2-11 against the Padres and Dodgers, 3-3 against the Rockies. The Dodgers are 8-2 against the Giants and Padres, 4-2 against the Rockies. The Rockies are 8-6 against the Dodgers and Padres. Arizona seems to give everyone a battle except for the Dodgers who are 8-1 against the Diamondbacks.
From the looks of this data, one would expect my theory to conclude the Dodgers will ultimately win the West. Chances are good they will. They’re near the top of the NL in batting average, on-base percentage, hits, runs scored, getting bases on balls, and pitching strikeouts. But they near the bottom of the NL in home runs and fielding percentage. The pitching staff has given up more home runs than their lineup hits, gives up their fair share of walks and wild pitches, and only one NL team with a winning record has a worse team ERA, Cincinnati. The starting rotation is steady if not serviceable, but the bullpen is shaky. Manny Ramirez is hitting well for average, but his power numbers aren’t what they used to be. Their 4-11 record in interleague play has hurt them in terms of overall record and divisional pecking order, and it’s still a mystery if they’ll be able to make any trades before July 31 while the Frank and Jamie McCourt are still going through a divorce and assets are tied up.
But it’s hard to argue with such dominance within the division not to mention one of baseball’s best managers. With all due respect to Bud Black, Bruce Bochy, and Jim Tracy, Joe Torre is still the dean of the division. If Torre can keep his players’ heads on straight, get maximum performance, and enjoy a consistently healthy lineup, the Dodgers are probably the most-complete team in the division.
Can the Padres win? Sure, but they need more than MLB’s best pitching staff. For as great as their starting rotation of Jon Garland, Mat Latos, Kevin Correa, Clayton Richard, and Wade LeBlanc has been, as well as the lights-out job closer Heath Bell’s been doing, the Padres are weak at the plate, near the bottom of the NL in almost every offensive category. This can and will ultimately become a bigger problem as they try to match up with the Dodgers’ and Rockies’ potent lineups. Many a team has crumbled under the pressure of having to win games 1-0 and 2-1 for months on end. Don’t be surprised if San Diego does start to fade later this summer.
What about the Giants? They’re near the top of the NL in both hitting and pitching, always a good combination. Tim Lincecum is pitching as expected. Matt Cain is having a good season despite a .500 record. Jonathan Sanchez is also doing well, and Brian Wilson is giving good vibrations (sorry, couldn’t resist) in the closer role. The biggest boost has been the revival of Barry Zito after two down years since coming from Oakland via free agency.
But like the Dodgers, the Giants hit well for average and produce runs, but not in bunches and certainly not so much with the long ball. More telling is San Francisco being the NL’s worst base-stealing team and having one of the wildest pitching staffs. In fact, it’s incredibly lucky for the Giants they have one of the best-fielding teams, giving up the fewest unearned runs in the NL, second only in MLB to Minnesota.
As for the Rockies, we know the formula — hit the ball all over the place and over the fence as much as possible, get enough pitching to keep games from getting too wild, and get really hot in August and September. Riding the right arm of Ulbaldo Jimenez’s incredible season, the Rockies are among the NL leaders in ERA and pitching strikeouts. But the rest of the starting rotation is a dramatic drop-off after Jimenez and the bullpen leaves plenty to desire. But no one is really putting up the kind of power numbers we’re used to seeing in Denver, so it’s hard to tell if the Rockies are really complete enough to stay with the Padres, Giants, and Dodgers through the summer. I’m skeptical it can happen this year, but it’s hard to ever count out the Rockies who've made divisional races rather interesting the past few years.
It is quite possible the wild card comes from the west, so chances are better than decent both the Dodgers and Padres could still be playing baseball after October 3. But there probably is a point where the Padres will go as far as they can, so this division could be painted only Dodger Blue, bringing Joe Torre’s boys of summer to the post-season a third straight year.
NL Central:
What was supposed to be a wide-open four or five-team race between St. Louis, Chicago, Milwaukee, Cincinnati, and Houston has turned into a big bummer for everyone outside of St. Louis and Cincinnati. This leads to an very interesting question... Why are the Cincinnati Reds in first place by a half-game?
Let’s count the ways...
1. They are 22-14 within the division.
2. The Cardinals are 17-13 within the division.
3. They are 17-7 against the Cubs, Brewers, Pirates, and Astros
4. The Cardinals are 10-8 against the Cubs, Brewers, Pirates, and Astros.
5. They’ve committed the fewest errors in the NL.
6. The Cardinals are among the NL’s more error-prone teams.
7. Damned if I know anything else!
The Reds and Cardinals are practically mirror images and polar opposites at the same time. Both teams play much better at home than on the road. The Reds lead the NL in hitting and rank near the top in almost every offensive category. The Cardinals rank near the middle. The Cardinals’ pitching staff ranks second-best in the NL. The Reds’ pitching staff ranks as the worst among NL teams with winning records. The Reds went 8-7 in interleague play. The Cardinals went 9-6. The Cardinals have beaten the Reds 7 of 12 meetings so far.
Are the Reds completely devoid of quality pitchers? Not with impressive starters like Bronson Arroyo, Johnny Cueto, and Mike Leake, and not with a closer like Francisco Cordero. Unfortunately, this is the extent of quality pitching. Aaron Harang hasn’t pitched consistently and Cuban import Aroldis Chapman is still down in the minors. While the Reds are third in the NL in home runs, only Joey Votto and Scott Rolen have hit 10 or more. So far it seems manager Dusty Baker’s getting the maximum output from his young team.
What about the Cardinals? Quality pitching is rarely a worry for a Tony LaRussa and Dave Duncan-led team, and this season is no exception. Chris Carpenter and Adam Wainwright are among the NL’s leaders in most pitching categories, and Jaime Garcia is also having a solid year so far. Ryan Franklin is holding his own as the closer, and the rest of the staff is pitching in nicely, even without Brad Penny or Jeff Suppan contributing much. Most of the lineup is hitting for decent average, and there’s certainly pop form the bats of Albert Pujols, Matt Holliday, Colby Rasmus, and Ryan Ludwick. But the Cardinals aren’t the “speed team” they were once known for years ago, ranking in the lower half of the NL in steals. They commit too many errors in the field, give up too many unearned runs; the pitching staff has hit the second-most batters and pitched the second-fewest strikeouts in the NL.
And yet, everything makes you think the Cardinals will simply outlast the Reds on the basis of experience and talent. It very well could be the case, but I wouldn’t bet the entire farm against Cincinnati. Dusty Baker is just as wise a manager as LaRussa, and can lead a team to the post-season. He did it in San Francisco and with the Cubs. Granted the Reds aren’t as veteran-laden or talented as Baker’s previous teams, but they can do it if they believe enough, stay healthy and focused, and get more contributions from key players after the All-Star break. There’s nothing like a young spunky team coming into its own to make us hedge our bets, but this is the first real race for many of this Reds team. Although it would be nice to see them keep it going and surprise everyone, these have been the kind of races LaRussa’s Cardinals survive.
NL East:
In many ways this is the NL’s most intriguing divisional races, and not just because I’m a card-carrying Mets fan. Here’s why this divisional race may be the most intriguing:
1. Bobby Cox’s final season managing in Atlanta.
2. Cliff Lee.
3. The Florida Marlins.
4. Stephen Strasburg.
Why is Bobby Cox the first reason? Look at the standings, both between 1991 and 2005 and today. Like old times, the Braves are back in first place, and this year’s version provides a nice balance of youth, veterans, comeback stories, and one of MLB’s best managers for the past 30 years. Cox told us this will be his last season, and his Braves are giving us one for nostalgia. Both the hitting and pitching ranks in the upper half among NL teams. Rookie right-fielder Jason Heyward has made a splashing debut until ending up on the disabled list. Third baseman Chipper Jones and catcher Brian McCann have played tough. Troy Glaus and Eric Hinske are having wonderful comeback seasons off the scrap heap, and the pitching staff is stabilized by veteran starters Tim Hudson and Derek Lowe. Toss in a healthy and rejuvenated Billy Wagner as the closer and you have the key ingredients for an unexpected special season.
Why is Cliff Lee the second reason? Because the Phillies traded him away to Seattle in the blockbuster deal that brought Roy Halladay from Toronto and likely rue the day GM Reuben Amaro, Jr. didn’t figure out a way to keep both aces on the same roster. Now the Phillies need to sweat out where Lee will end up before the July 31 trading deadline as a rental for the stretch run. The Mets keep coming up as a team in need of an ace while Johan Santana tries to regain the form he’s lost, but there are more than a few questions on how they can pull off the trade without losing key prospects. The mere thought of Lee joining a rotation of Santana (even if not 100%), Mike Pelfrey, Jonathon Niese, and the patchwork tandem of R.A. Dickey and Hisanori Takahashi and battling his former team for divisional supremacy is quite exciting.
Why are the Florida Marlins the third reason? The Marlins, as a middling, mediocre, underachieving team always find a way to play the role of spoiler in this division’s races. If you need a reminder, look no further to September 2007 and September 2008, Shea Stadium, and thousands of long sad faces among Mets fans. When the Marlins fired Freddie Garcia as manager last week, I had a gnawing feeling of déjà vu all over again with flashbacks to the 2003 season while Jack McKeon took over for John Boles under similar circumstances and led the Marlins all the way to winning the World Series. With all the rumors and talks involving Bobby Valentine, one could not help but see Jack McKeon and his cigar all over again. But alas, the Marlins bungled contract negotiations with Valentine, and decided to stick with Edwin Rodriguez for the remainder of the season, so the Braves, Mets, and Phillies are all likely safe from the divisional race turning upside-down and inside-out. Still, it would’ve been fun to see Bobby V match wits with Bobby C like the old days.
In case you don’t believe the Marlins can be a nuisance for the Braves, Mets and Phillies, take a look at Florida’s record against them so far:
1-2 vs Atlanta
8-5 vs New York
4-4 vs Philadelphia
Why is Stephen Strasburg the fourth reason? Although he pitches for the last-place Nationals, who will likely remain in last place, Strasburg is the real deal and could make life tough on the Braves, Mets and Phillies when he pitches. No longer a complete doormat, the Nats do have ageless and tireless Livan Hernandez and steady Tyler Clippard in the starting rotation. If John Lannan comes back up from the minors, the Nats could throw a tough foursome the rest of the summer and create some stress for the top three teams expecting the MLB equivalent of Duke versus Troy State in NCAA hoops. If you don’t believe the Nats could pose trouble, look at their records against the top three:
4-2 vs Atlanta
5-3 vs New York
2-4 vs Philadelphia
So what can we infer about the Braves, Mets and Phillies by looking at the Marlins and Nationals?
1. All three are equally mediocre within the division. Atlanta’s 11-12, the Mets are 16-16, and the Phillies are 14-15.
2. The Marlins and Nationals play slightly better within the division. Florida’s 16-14; the Nationals are 13-13.
3. Someone better figure out a way to dominate within the division as well as beat the Marlins more often.
Are there any trends to pay close attention to?
1. The Mets are 4-1 against the Braves and 4-2 against the Phillies.
2. The Braves are 5-4 against the Phillies.
3. The Phillies are 6-9 against the Mets and Braves.
4. The Braves and Mets have the NL’s best home records.
5. The Phillies are the only team with winning home and away records.
6. NL batting ranks: Braves 6th, Mets 7th, Phillies 9th
7. NL pitching ranks: Mets 4th, Braves 6th, Phillies 7th
8. The Mets are among NL’s best at stolen bases, fielding, and pitching strikeouts
9. The Phillies are among NL’s best in hitting homeruns, but among worst in allowing homeruns
10. The Phillies lead the NL in fewest walks allowed, but rank among worst in pitched strikeouts
11. The Braves lead the majors in most men left on base
Health could be a very big factor from this point on. Both the Braves and Mets have had much better health than the Phillies who’ve had Jimmy Rollins, Chase Utley, Carlos Ruiz and Placido Polanco on the disabled list. Roy Halladay seems overworked and tired lately, Brad Lidge can’t find his groove yet as the closer, Cole Hamels continues to struggle, and Jamie Moyer is 47. While the Mets eagerly await the return of Carlos Beltran, Johan Santana has yet to regain his groove or velocity, John Maine continues to be an enigma, and Oliver Perez is, well, Oliver Perez. Takahashi’s no longer able to outwit batters the longer he pitches, and other Mets are nicked -- Jenrry Mejia, Angel Pagan, Rod Barajas, and Luis Castillo.
If I was to handicap the divisional race, it seems the Braves and Mets have less bad luck than the Phillies. Assuming the Marlins don’t change the dynamics, it seems likely the Braves and Mets will go down to the wire for the crown. As possible as one of these teams could claim the wild card, it’s equally possible to see the second-place team left out by October 3rd. My heart says Mets, but my head says Braves unless the Mets obtain one more solid starter to stabilize the rotation (Lee, Oswalt, or even Baltimore’s Kevin Millwood or Cleveland’s Fausto Carmona).
Since I have neither a crystal ball, Magic 8 ball, nor Quogue board, I’ll simply have to read the tea leaves in my mug and offer the following projections for October:
AL East champ: Tampa Bay
AL Central champ: Minnesota
AL West champ: Texas
AL Wild card: Yankees
NL East champ: Mets
NL Central champ: St. Louis
NL West champ: Dodgers
NL Wild card: Braves
Just in case, check back with me by Labor Day and let’s see what I think then.
In the meantime, have a happy and safe 4th of July weekend.
Happy Canada Day!
No comments:
Post a Comment