Some NFL Stocking Stuffers and Humbug for your X-mas -- Sports Thoughts for December 20, 2010

Recalling ghosts of New York Giants home game collapses to Eagles teams past...

Forget Ebenezer Scrooge! Don’t tell me you weren’t thinking about Herman Edwards (Miracle at the Meadowlands, 1978) and Vai Sikahema (Knockout comeback at the Meadowlands, 1992) as the Giants let a three-touchdown lead go poof in less than eight minutes at the New Meadowlands Stadium. While most Giants fans’ lasting memory of this 38-31 debacle will be red-faced head coach Tom Coughlin racing out to punter Matt Dodge to scold him for punting the ball directly to Philadelphia’s DeSean Jackson with ten seconds left in regulation, my lasting memory is of Eagles head coach Andy Reid on the sideline earlier during the fourth quarter, indecisive of whether to toss the red challenge flag on a catch and fumble by Jackson, trailing 24-10:

Oh... Do I toss the flag, or not? Was DeSean down by contact, or did he commit an Eli-type fumble? Oh... What to do, what to do... Why isn’t anyone upstairs giving me guidance?! This decision may cost us the divisional title...

Approximately one hour later:

I knew we had them exactly where we wanted them. All that non-challenge did was stall the inevitable and make things a little spicy for the FOX Network.

C’mon... Think about it... If Reid challenged the fumble call, it most likely would’ve been overturned. The Eagles would’ve kept possession and possibly continued to move the ball on the Giants defense and score. Instead, the Giants gained possession, drove downfield for an apparently clinching touchdown and 31-10 lead with approximately seven and a half minutes left in regulation. Approximately three minutes later, the Eagles scored on two long touchdown plays, sandwiched around a perfectly executed onside kick by David Akers, to close the gap to 31-24.

Think about it... If Reid tossed that challenge flag, the Eagles could’ve possibly been up 31-24 instead of behind. The fact that the Giants failed to move the ball and drain enough of the clock on their last two offensive drives is irrelevant. The fact that the Eagles scored touchdowns after each of those stalled Giants drives is irrelevant. The Giants didn’t lose this game on Dodge’s ill-advised punt. They lost this game as soon as they put a comfortable defense on the field after kicking off to the Eagles at 31-10. From that point on, the Giants forgot how to tackle, how to contain quarterback Michael Vick, how to hound all of Vick’s receivers, and forgot how to stay motivated enough to close the deal. In barely seven minutes, the Eagles scorched the Giants for 215 yards of offense and 28 points. Jackson’s 65-yard punt return, after initially muffing it, was simply the cruel capper of a complete Giants meltdown.

Many a beat writer had been warning sports fans all week long leading up to this game... SPEED KILLS. The Giants played a wonderful game for approximately 52 minutes. It didn’t take very long for the Eagles to explode with a Blitzkrieg not seen since Hitler’s troops rolled into Poland. As for Giants Stadium archives, we haven’t seen an ambush so swift and decisive since Vai Sikahema used a goal post as a punching bag back in 1992. Do the Giants recover from this kind of game and make it to the playoffs? Yes, they can, but who really knows what the team’s psyche will be going into Green Bay next Sunday. The Packers weren’t expected to be much of a challenge to the Patriots in New England last night, with starting quarterback Aaron Rodgers sidelined with a concussion. Surprise, surprise... The Pats barely outlasted a very feisty Packers team and back-up quarterback Matt Flynn, 31-27. If Rodgers returns next Sunday, the Packers could be even more feisty and inspired. For all the problems the Packers have endured with mounting injuries, last night’s game provided a good reason why many (including me) considered them a viable Super Bowl representative in the NFC.

Speaking of team psyche, can we please stop that idiotic mantra of “Same old Jets”?! No, a 22-17 win over the Steelers in Pittsburgh doesn’t solve all problems for the New York Jets, or wash away the stench of one too many embarrassing incidents this season, most recently the chorus line orchestration by suspended strength and conditioning coach Sal Aliso (now remember boys... One, two, three, trip! Bend the knees! Turn and cough, “Patriots do it too!”). Hey! Jets fans! I’m talking to YOU! Yeah, YOU! Come down from that ledge... And DON’T pick up the phone to call into your local sports radio station!

Yes, the Jets have finally managed to win a tenth game of the regular season before the final week, the first time since 2004. Did they clinch a playoff berth yet? No, but they are inching closer and still control their own destiny. According to the NFL, the Jets could’ve clinched at least a wild card berth with a win, and losses by the Miami Dolphins, Indianapolis Colts, and either the Kansas City Chiefs or San Diego Chargers. Well, so far, only the Dolphins obliged, laying a 17-14 egg at home to the Buffalo Bills.

All those shocked the Dolphins lost at home yesterday to the Bills, stand on your heads. If you’ve been following the Dolphins all season, you’d know they’re the first team in NFL history to have a 6-1 road record and 1-6 home record in the same season. That’s 7-7, folks, the classic definition of inconsistency and mediocrity. In fact, the Dolphins are so inconsistent.... er, make that consistently mediocre... that they’ve followed the following pattern since starting the season 2-0 with wins at Buffalo and Minnesota:

Consecutive home losses to the Jets and New England Patriots
Win at Green Bay
Lose at home to the Steelers
Win at Cincinnati
Lose at Baltimore
Win at home over Tennessee
Lose at home to Chicago
Win at Oakland
Lose at home to Cleveland
Win at the Jets
Lose at home to Buffalo

FYI: Next Sunday the Dolphins host the Detroit Lions, proud 23-20 winners, in overtime, at Tampa Bay, finally breaking a 26-game road losing streak. To put things in perspective, the last time the Lions won a game on the road was 16-7 over the Bears in Chicago, October 28, 2007 (ironically, that was also their last win against NFC North opponents, prior to last week’s 7-3 home win against the Packers, a streak of 19 games). In case you’re counting, that’s now one win each within the division and on the road during the Obama administration! Bet on this game at your own peril...

Speaking of Minnesota, folks seem to be all aquiver over tonight’s Bears-Vikings game in the University of Minnesota’s outdoor stadium. No dome! Oh my! Oh puleeze... From 1961 to 1981, the Vikings played their home games at old Metropolitan Stadium in Bloomington, a notorious frozen wasteland if ever there was. December in Minnesota means winter, snow, and brutal cold. In fact, I’m so confident in the Vikings, I promise you they can’t play any worse outdoors than they did indoors last Monday night at Ford Field in Detroit.

Getting back to the pending playoff berth for the Jets... All the Jets need to do is beat either the Bears next Sunday in Chicago, or the Bills at home January 2, and they will be at least a wild card entry at 11-5, a record most experts predicted before the season began. What about the Jets’ AFC competition with regards to tie-breakers? Well, given the Dolphins loss to the Bills, this leaves only the Colts, Chiefs, and Chargers to worry about. So, let’s take a quick look at each potential AFC playoff team’s remaining schedule (we can exclude the Patriots, as they clinched a berth last week after beating the Bears 36-7):

Jets (10-4 overall, 8-3 within AFC):
at Chicago (12/26), vs. Buffalo (1/2)

Pittsburgh Steelers (10-4 overall, 8-3 within AFC):
vs. Carolina (12/23), at Cleveland (1/2)

Baltimore Ravens (10-4 overall, 7-3 within AFC):
at Cleveland (12/26), vs. Cincinnati (1/2)

Jacksonville Jaguars (8-6 overall, 7-4 within AFC):
vs. Washington (12/26), at Houston (1/2)

Indianapolis Colts (8-6 overall, 6-4 within AFC):
at Oakland (12/26), vs. Tennessee (1/2)

Kansas City Chiefs (9-5 overall, 5-5 within AFC):
vs. Tennessee (12/26), vs. Oakland (1/2)

San Diego Chargers (8-6 overall, 6-4 within AFC):
at Cincinnati (12/26), at Denver (1/2)

Okay, for argument’s sake, let’s assume all hell breaks lose, and the Jets, Steelers, Ravens, Jaguars, Colts, Chiefs, and Chargers all end up with identical10-6 records when the dust finally settles after January 2. The first tie-breaker is decided within the division to award titles in the AFC North, South and West divisions. Please note that, despite their loss to the Jets, the Steelers have clinched a playoff berth on the basis of a strength of schedule tie-breaker (Steelers opponents are a combined 96-86 so far this season).

If the Steelers and Ravens each end up 10-6, this means both teams would also be 8-4 within the AFC. Each beat the other at the other team’s stadium. However, the Steelers would win the tie-breaker on the basis of a 4-2 record within the northern division; the Ravens would be 2-4.

If the Jaguars and Colts each end up 10-6, this means both teams would be 8-4 within the AFC as well. Each team beat the other at home. Each team would also be 4-2 within the AFC South. However, as discussed in last week’s column, the Colts would win the tie-breaker on the basis of a better won-loss record against common opponents (9-5 vs. 8-6).

If the Chiefs and Chargers each end up 10-6, this means both teams could also be 3-3 within the AFC West (if the Chiefs beat the Raiders January 2). If that’s the case, however, the Chargers would not only have the better record within the AFC (8-4 vs. 6-6), they’d also have the better record against common opponents (9-5 vs. 8-6). If the Chiefs lose their finale against the Raiders, but beat the Titans instead, they’d not only still have a worse record against common opponents as well as within the AFC, they’d also have the worse record within the division (2-4 vs. 3-3). So, as discussed in last week’s column, one Kansas City loss is all the Chargers need to take the divisional crown.

So... Let’s assume the Steelers, Colts, and Chargers all win their divisions, leaving the Jets, Ravens, Jaguars, and Chiefs to fend for two wild card berths. Since all four teams play in different divisions, the first tie-breaker involves won-loss records within the AFC. The Jets, Ravens and Jaguars would all have 8-4 records; the Chiefs would be eliminated with a 6-6 record (HELLO?! We already knew one loss by the Chiefs would clinch a playoff berth for the Jets).

However, we now need to go to the next tie-breaker, won-loss record against common opponents, in order to eliminate one more team among the Jets, Ravens and Jaguars. It just so happens that the Jets, Ravens and Jaguars all played the Cleveland Browns, Buffalo Bills, Houston Texans, and Denver Broncos. The Jets would be 4-1 (assuming they lose January 2 to the Bills), the Ravens would also be 4-1 (assuming they lose December 26 to the Browns), and the Jaguars would be 5-0 (assuming they beat the Texans January 2), hence giving them the first wild card berth

That means the final wild card berth boils down to the Ravens and Jets, and since the Ravens beat the Jets 10-9 in week one, that would eliminate the Jets from any playoff berth. So, hyper-neurotic Jets fans, the only way (I hope) the Jets will NOT make the playoffs is if all of the following events take place:
1. The Jets lose to both the Bears and Bills.
2. The Steelers lose to the Panthers and Browns.
3. The Ravens lose to the Browns and Bengals.
4. The Colts beat the Raiders and Titans.
5. The Jaguars beat the Redskins and Texans.
6. The Chargers beat the Bengals and Broncos.
7. The Chiefs lose to either the Titans or Raiders.

So, to make things simple, here’s what the Jets need to do to prevent countless suicides in the New York Metropolitan region... WIN ONE MORE GAME! If not, well... You see how the apocalypse can fall into place.

Here are a few more interesting tidbits as a final holiday garnish:

For those paying attention to the NFC West, not only is it a distinct possibility the divisional champion will have a 7-9 record, the possibility remains for a three-way tie at 7-9 between the St. Louis Rams, Seattle Seahawks and San Francisco 49ers. In the event of a three-way tie, only possible if the 49ers beat both the Rams and Arizona Cardinals, the Rams beat the Seahawks in the season finale, and the Seahawks beat the Buccaneers in Tampa next week (hey, if the Lions can...), the 49ers would win the divisional title on the basis of a 5-1 record within the division. For those of us who predicted the 49ers would win this division as the best of the lot, at least we can hang our hats on the fact that they dominated within the division. Two-way ties at 7-9 are also possible.

It is possible for either the Rams or Seahawks — but not both — to win the division with an 8-8 record, sparing history’s first-ever NFL divisional champ with a sub-.500 record.

7-9 is the worst possible record anyone will have as champion of the NFC West. No matter how hard each team tries, it mathematically impossible for all four teams to finish tied at 6-10, thanks to all four teams playing against each other at least once during the last two weeks of the regular season.

Since a 6-10 record cannot possibly win the NFC West, the Arizona Cardinals are official eliminated from playoff contention and their reign of divisional titles ends at two seasons.

The NFC West is the only division where a sub-.500 playoff team is possible. No matter how much anyone hopes and prays, the Dallas Cowboys and Minnesota Vikings, two of the NFC’s most talent-laden teams, are officially eliminated from playoff contention and kaput for 2010.

As strange as it sounds, the 10-4 Philadelphia Eagles and 10-4 New Orleans Saints can still conceivably miss the NFC playoffs.
After last year’s 3-13 nightmare, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers at 8-6 are still very much in the NFC playoff hunt.

Finally, please mull over one last sports cliché as it applies to the approaching post-season (with apologies to any Michael Vick haters): When handicapping a dog fight, it’s not necessarily the dog in the fight that counts, but the fight in the dog. For all the doomsayers about the Jets first nine wins being less than impressive, take serious note about their tenth — it was the tenth time, and eighth in ten games, that the Jets played a game decided by less than ten points. Their record in these ten games? 7-3. Do the Jets win the close ones? It’s certainly been the case most of this season.

Why is this important? As football teams grind through the final weeks towards the playoffs, the weather gets nastier and the games get tougher. The Jets are battle-tested, and it showed as they outlasted the Steelers in Heinz Field, a place they had never won before. Now the Jets are an NFL-best 6-1 on the road. Experts said the Jets couldn’t run on the Steelers defense. The Jets ran for 106 yards on 27 carries, including an impressive play-fake seven-yard bootleg Mark Sanchez scored a key touchdown on. Sanchez wasn’t supposed to be able to play composed in cold weather. He went 19 for 29 for 170 yards (no touchdowns or interceptions). Their defense wasn’t supposed to be able to withstand Pittsburgh’s physical offense. The defense bent but didn’t break, holding the Steelers scoreless the last 21 minutes of the game, as well as scoring a fourth-quarter safety. The Jets weren’t expected to have any resiliency left. Not only did they score on the opening kickoff, they outscored the Steelers 12-0 over the last 21 minutes.

In case you’re handicapping the AFC playoff teams, consider this: only the Ravens have played in more close games than the Jets. Their 30-24 win over the Saints yesterday was the 11th game decided by less than ten points, and fifth in six games. The Ravens record in close games? 7-4. As for the Steelers? Their loss to the Jets was their eighth game decided by less than ten points, but only their third since Thanksgiving. Their record in close games? 6-2.

How about the hottest teams in the AFC, the Patriots and Chargers? The Patriots win over Green Bay (their sixth straight) was only their fifth game decided by less than ten points. Granted, their record in close games is 5-0, but the Pats hadn’t played a white-knuckler since beating the Colts 31-28 just before Thanksgiving, and you have to go back to the middle of October (weeks 6 and 7) for the last time they played a tight game, beating the Ravens and Chargers by identical 23-20 scores. For the Chargers (6-1 since Halloween, week 8), they’ve only played seven games decided by less than ten points, and none since a week nine 29-23 win at Houston. The Chargers record in close games? 2-5.

Might these close games be a factor over the next several weeks? Perhaps. When teams are used to winning in blowouts, tight games potentially make such teams uptight and prone to blink in tough, close playoff games where every possession and mistake becomes magnified. For the Patriots, a tough game with the Packers probably did wonders for their preparation for the playoffs. However, one little factoid may be telling in terms of hedging bets against the Patriots returning to the Super Bowl — the Cleveland Browns and Buffalo Bills have played in ten and nine, respectively, games decided by less than ten points, a combined four games decided in overtime. While the Browns are 3-7 and the Bills are 3-6 in close games, it should be noted that the Browns handed the Patriots their worst loss of the season (34-14, week 9), and the Bills rang up the second-most points on the Patriots in any game (30, week 3). Beating up the competition is certainly impressive, but surviving a dog fight may be even more impressive once the calendar turns to January.

So, as teams continue to dash through the snow towards the playoffs, now’s the time to pay more attention to heart than style points.