While wondering how the New England Patriots managed to spoil what has been an exciting season...
Yeah, yeah... Rebuilding and reloading season. Ha! Just when it looked like we could be enjoying one of the most wide-open NFL playoff stretches in years, along comes Bill Belichick and his Patriots to ruin everything for us parity fans in a matter of seven days. Last Monday night, the Patriots smacked the smug off the New York Jets faces on national television, and six days later, they waltzed into Soldier Field and smothered the Chicago Bears. In a snowstorm! Seven days, two games, 81-10 combined score. Ouch!
Are there any questions? No? Class dismissed!
So, fellow students of football, what lesson have we learned from the past few weeks? Well, lesson number one is to beware of championship caliber teams after they lay an egg against an inferior opponent. Six weeks ago, the Patriots whipped up a sizable omelet in Cleveland during a 34-14 loss to the Browns. The defense couldn’t stop the run, and the offense was one-dimensional. That was apparently just the wake-up call Belichick’s troops needed as they’ve won five straight over the Steelers, Colts, Lions, Jets and Bears by a composite score of 196-88... That’s an average score of 39-17. As if outscoring opponents by an average of three touchdowns isn’t statement enough, consider that quarterback Tom Brady has tossed 15 touchdowns and zero interceptions over this five-game stretch. In fact, Brady hasn’t tossed an interception since tossing two in a 23-20 week 6 win against the Baltimore Ravens. The touchdown-to-interception tally since? 19 to zero!
How’s this for near perfection? The Patriots rank near the top of the NFL with 20 interceptions and 7 fumble recoveries (a +18 turnover ratio). Despite giving up more yards than they generate, the Patriots score more than any other team and virtually don’t make mistakes (only 4 interceptions and 5 fumbles lost).
Should everyone else in the AFC raise the white flag and concede the Super Bowl berth to New England? As tempting as it is, given the Patriots have already defeated the Jets, Dolphins, Colts, Steelers, Ravens and Chargers, teams all having at least an outside shot still at the playoffs, maybe we should wait and see what January brings. Yes, the Patriots have the NFL’s best record. Yes, the Patriots will likely gain home-field advantage. Yes, the Patriots have won 26 straight regular season games at home. But the Patriots are no less vulnerable than any other playoff contender... After all, you honestly can’t expect them to stay angry much longer and keep winning by three touchdowns, do you? It’s not like this is 2007, right? Right?
I’m a firm believer in “Any given Sunday” (or Saturday night, depending on the television networks), and there are clues to suggest a few AFC playoff teams could upset the Patriots, even at Gillette Stadium. After all, the Ravens knocked the Patriots off their game in last year’s playoffs... And lest we forget the outcome of Super Bowl XLII? Giants 17, Patriots 14. What do both games have in common? Domination of the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball, and knocking Tom Brady on his keester.
Granted, neither the Jets nor Bears mounted much resistance against Brady and the passing attack, but each did manage to sack Brady three times. Does this mean anything? It means a defense CAN get to Brady, the Patriots offensive line is not completely air-tight, and if a team consistently commits to rushing the passer, they can eventually get to Brady, get to him often, and dirty his uniform.
Don’t snicker... It’s a known fact that all quarterbacks not named Brett Favre DON’T like getting their uniforms dirty! Exhibit A, I give you Peyton Manning... See how flustered he gets each time his white pants get grass stains? Exhibit B, I give you Tom Brady... Have you ever watched him enough to gauge his emotional level when things are going no so great? Just a thought to ponder...
Oh, and one other thing... Keeping Tom Brady on the sidelines. Nothing like making a quarterback stand around watching the opposing offense grind through his defensive mates and drain time from the clock! The more a team dominates time of possession, the better its chances are of keeping the ball out of number 12’s hands and keeping points off New England’s side of the scoreboard. Has this formula worked before? The Giants certainly worked it like a charm in Super Bowl XLII as well as Super Bowl XXV in 1991, when they beat the “point a minute” Buffalo Bills, 20-19. The Patriots also know how to play this game as well, when they upset the St. Louis Rams in Super Bowl XXVI in 2002, 20-17.
Let’s assume the apocalypse won’t happen and the Jets will manage to right their ship and join the Steelers and Ravens among the playoff pool. Granted, the Patriots have more than exposed flaws in all three defensive units, but all three teams are capable of running the ball with brute force as well as shutting down an opponent’s running game. If the Jets, Steelers or Ravens can take a page from the Browns playbook and spice up the formula a notch, any of these teams could pull it off, even if the Jets lost a great deal of their swagger last Monday night. Rex Ryan may never completely kick Bill Belichick’s derrière, but maybe a swift kick in the shins is all that’s needed under the right circumstances.
What about the AFC South and West divisions? Unless something goes horribly wrong for the Jets, Steelers or Ravens, it’s most likely that the AFC South and West will only be represented by their division champs, while the wild cards come from the AFC East and North. In the South, the question is whether the Jacksonville Jaguars (8-5) can hold on and outlast the Indianapolis Colts (7-6). In the West, we wonder the same for the Kansas City Chiefs (8-5) and the San Diego Chargers (7-6).
In the AFC South, any questions will likely be answered this coming Sunday, when the Colts host the Jaguars. The formula for Jacksonville is simple: beat the Colts, they clinch the AFC South and send the Colts home for an early winter for the first time since 2001. If the Colts revenge the Jaguars for their week 4 31-28 loss in Jacksonville, things get interesting. If the Colts win out (12/26 at Oakland, 1/2 Tennessee), no matter what Jacksonville does in the final two weeks (12/26 vs. Washington, 1/2 at Houston), the Colts win the division on the basis of a better record against common opponents (9-5 vs 8-6).
In fact, for the Jaguars to win the AFC South despite losing to the Colts on Sunday, they need the Colts, at the least, to lose their final game to the Titans, in order to gain the upper-hand in any tie-breaker advantage (W-L record within the division, W-L record against common opponents, W-L record within the conference).
Make sense? Didn’t think so...
In the AFC West, things are a little less clear. The Chiefs (8-5) can simply clinch the divisional title by winning their remaining games (at St. Louis, 12/26 vs. Tennessee, 1/2 vs. Oakland), but things aren’t necessarily simple for the Chiefs, 31-0 losers at San Diego last week, where the offense generated a TOTAL of 67 yards without starting quarterback Matt Cassel (appendectomy). If Cassel recovers and returns, the Chiefs are in good shape. If Cassel isn’t up to par, the final stretch could be tough. The Rams are in contention to win the NFC West and play very well at home. The Raiders are 4-0 within the division; a home finale with a playoff berth at stake doesn’t offer guarantees for the Chiefs.
If the Chiefs lose one of their final three games, the door is wide open for the Chargers (7-6) to claim their fifth straight AFC West crown. To say the final three weeks are laid out perfectly for the Chargers is an understatement: at home vs. San Francisco, 12/26 at Cincinnati, 1/2 at Denver. The combined record of these opponents is 12-27, the Titans are riding a six-game losing streak, and the Bengals are riding a ten-game losing streak. All the Chargers need is to win out and hope for one Kansas City loss, and they can win the division by having a better record against common opponents (9-5 vs 8-6). If the Chiefs lose to Oakland, the Chargers would clinch by having a better record within the division (3-3 vs. 2-4).
Is all doom and gloom if the Chiefs lose once? Yes, unless the Chargers find a way to lose their season finale at Denver, a team they’ve beaten seven of the last nine meetings. Needless to say, the final three weeks provide mutual pressure for both the Chiefs and Chargers. As long as the Chargers keep winning, the pressure is on the Chiefs to win as well. As long as the Chiefs keep winning, the pressure tightens on the Chargers for starting one too many seasons 2-5, perhaps finally paying the price for habitually starting the season slowly, where another awesome November and December may not be good enough.
What does my crystal ball predict? If the Jaguars and Chiefs manage to hang on and win their divisions, both could pose problems for playoff opponents with their solid running games. If the Colts and Chargers manage to cheat the odds and get back into the playoffs, both may face quick exits because of their inconsistent running games and defenses. If we have other combinations of AFC South and West champions, it’s anyone’s guess how they’ll fare hosting perhaps the Ravens and Jets in the wild card round.
As I said back in the beginning of the season, I still think the Ravens and Jets have the right combinations to give fits throughout the playoffs, regardless of playing home or on the road. Do either have enough to make a run through three playoff games, especially through Foxborough? Maybe yes, maybe no. Chances are we’re probably waiting for the inevitable of the Patriots returning to the Super Bowl, but something in the back of my mind tells me it won’t be an easy path.
Sorry, but this train doesn't stop until it speeds through Dallas.
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