Of all the issues on the table of discussion regarding the NFL’s collective bargaining agreement (CBA), the proposed 18-game schedule is one among the most-contentious to me. I recently offered my unsolicited views to NFL Commissioner Roger Goodell and NFL Players Association Executive Director DeMaurice Smith. Copied on that letter was New York Daily News columnist Gary Myers. No one responded to my thoughts. Here’s an edited excerpt from that letter:
The 18-game schedule idea is ill-advised, to put it diplomatically. League revenue and player salaries are irrelevant to me on this matter. A 16-game regular season is more than sufficient in terms of providing football fans their “fix” and duration of a season. I can take or leave preseason games, in all honesty, whether they be two or four. If the goal is to extend the NFL season’s three phases (preseason, regular season, postseason) with high-quality football fans pay to see in stadiums around the country, perhaps a wiser use of the existing 4-16 game setup is called for as opposed to a 2-18 setup.
As much as I love the Hall of Fame game, I no longer see the logic or value to two teams having an advanced fifth game. No team should play more than four preseason games, period. Let whichever teams chosen to play in the Hall of Fame game play only four preseason games and provide economic offsets to compensate teams and fans for losing an extra home preseason game. Considering the cost of tickets and attendance figures for preseason games, smart guys like you should be able to think creatively and find a way to make these games more worthwhile for fans and more cost-effective for teams and the league.
What you could do to improve the quality of these games is to spread them out more during August and early September with bye weeks, giving veteran players more opportunities for rest and perhaps encouraging teams to play veterans a little more each game, rather than the mode teams currently operate. Perhaps then you won’t see teams playing 1.5 “real games” and 2.5 “rookie scrimmages.”
This leads me to the real crux of length of season, schedules, and player safety: bye weeks. You simply do not have enough to compensate teams for the level of injuries that keep piling up during a season. I think it would be prudent for the preseason to spread 4 games over a 5-week period, providing each team a bye week and perhaps reducing injury risks players might normally face when 4 games are crammed within 3.5 weeks.
As for the regular season, with a 16-game schedule there needs to be TWO bye weeks for each team, and if you want to go to an 18-game schedule, then each team needs three bye weeks. It no longer makes sense for any NFL team to play 7-8-9-10 consecutive weeks anymore. It’s too much weekly exposure to injury risk and inadequate time to heal from the progression of injuries.
As for the postseason, perhaps it might make sense to give all teams a week off prior to the wild card round, just as there’s a week off between the conference championship games and the Super Bowl. Yes, that gives top seeds two bye weeks prior to the divisional round, but at least this allows for all teams to be sufficiently rested and healed entering their postseason games, AND the week off prior to the wild card round might offer the league flexibility in the event of weather issues, as was the case with games late in this past regular season game (Giants-Vikings, Vikings-Eagles). Yes, I know this is football as opposed to baseball, but we’re also in a new era of global warming and dysfunctional airports and roads during major snow storms.
So, if you put the preseason and regular season schedules in a 4-16 setup according to my proposal (with five total bye weeks), here’s what your new calendar (Thursday-Monday) could look like:
August 4-8: Opening pre-season weekend (including Hall of Fame game)
Aug. 11-15: pre-season weekend #2
Aug. 18-22: pre-season weekend #3
Aug. 25-29: pre-season weekend #4
Sept. 1-5: pre-season weekend #5 (Labor Day weekend)
Sept. 8-12: Regular season kickoff weekend
Sept. 15-19: Regular season weekend #2
Sept. 22-26: Regular season weekend #3
Sept. 29-Oct. 3: Regular season weekend #4
Oct. 6-10: Regular season weekend #5
Oct. 13-17: Regular season weekend #6
Oct. 20-24: Regular season weekend #7
Oct. 27-31: Regular season weekend #8
Nov. 3-7: Regular season weekend #9
Nov. 10-14: Regular season weekend #10
Nov. 17-21: Regular season weekend #11
Nov. 24-28: Regular season weekend #12 (Thanksgiving weekend)
Dec. 1-5: Regular season weekend #13
Dec. 8-12: Regular season weekend #14
Dec. 15-19: Regular season weekend #15
Dec. 22-26: Regular season weekend #16 (X-mas weekend)
Dec. 29-Jan. 2: Regular season weekend #17 (New Year’s weekend)
Jan. 5-9: Regular season weekend #18
Jan. 12-16: Regular/Post season bye weekend
Jan. 19-23: Wild card weekend
Jan. 26-30: Divisional Playoff weekend
Feb. 2-6: Conference Title game weekend
Feb. 9-13: Postseason bye weekend (Pro Bowl?)
Feb. 16-20: Super Bowl weekend
According to my count, that’s a 32-week NFL season with 31 weeks providing fans at least one game to watch among your affiliated TV networks. Too complicated? Not to me, and players from both potential super bowl teams will have the benefit of five bye weeks during their path to the Super Bowl (including the Pro Bowl week).
What to do about team rosters? Expand to 55 active players, in addition to a six-man practice squad, and change the Injured Reserved rules to six weeks as a prerequisite for reinstatement to the active roster instead of players being lost for an entire season or taking up a dead roster spot while they heal from injuries.
To recap:
1. A five-week preseason, where every team only plays four.
2. An 18-week regular season, where every team plays 16.
3. A bye week before the wild card round to account for weather-postponed games or injured players healing
4. Six-week postseason to maximize fan interest and captivation/obsession with the NFL
5. 32 straight weeks of NFL football for the adoring masses of fans
6. 32 weeks of NFL television broadcasting and revenue
7. An NFL season that doesn’t end until pitchers and catcher report to spring training
8. The regular season didn’t increase one iota for individual players
Take-home lesson:
Do the math. Everyone wins. One less issue to battle over.
Monday, February 21, 2011
Sunday, February 6, 2011
Phew! True to form, Packers by a whisker -- Sports Thoughts for February 7, 2011
So much for my prediction of the lowest-scoring Super Bowl in history, but at least I got the right winning team in a competitive and close game.
But it didn’t look like a close game for a while.
What happened? Some observations:
1. Injuries: The Packers lost two key members of their defensive secondary late in the second quarter, Charles Woodson to a collarbone injury and Sam Shields to a leg injury. Before both players went down, the Packers were leading 21-3, thanks to two interceptions of Ben Roethlisberger, one a 37-yard pick-6 by Nick Collins.
So what else is new? 16 members of the Packers roster ended up on injured reserve this season, and the Packers kept filling in their ranks, plugging along, and winning. Granted the defense started to buckle a bit without Woodson and Shields, allowing the Steelers to come all the way back to within 28-25 with seven minutes left in the game, but when plays needed to be made, the Packers found a way. When the Packers needed to snuff out the Steelers and hang onto a hard-fought win, they survived the war of attrition when Collins broke up a 4th and 5 pass from Roethlisberger to Mike Wallace from the Green Bay 33 yard line with less than a minute to go.
On the other hand, the Steelers managed quite well without wideout Emmanuel Sanders (2nd quarter leg injury), center Maurkice Pouncey (ankle) and even right tackle Flozell Adams, out for part of the first half with a should injury.
2. Running Game: As predicted, neither team ran for a lot of yards, but I was surprised how few times Green Bay attempted to run. The Packers rushed only 13 times for 50 yards, certainly effective enough (3.8 yards per carry) to encourage more balance by the offense. The Steelers rushed for an impressive 126 yards on 23 carries (5.5 yards per carry). But the Steelers fell behind 21-3, so Roethlisberger’s arm was needed more and more in order to get back into the game.
3. Turnovers: It’s no surprise turnovers happened. It’s surprising the Steelers were the only ones coughing up the ball. Roethlisberger tossed two first-half interceptions, and Rashard Mendenhall lost a crucial fumble early in the fourth quarter after the Steelers climbed back within 21-17. The Packers scored their third touchdown on Steelers gifts to go up 28-17.
4. Quarterbacks and Receivers: I’m not surprised Ben Roethlisberger and Aaron Rodgers each put up a lot of passes. I’m a little surprised how both seemed out of rhythm for two quarterbacks completing at least 60 percent of their passes. The number of dropped passes by Green Bay’s Jordy Nelson and the Steelers Mike Wallace more than raised my eyebrows.
5. Officiating: I didn’t have too many qualms with the referees, but two calls certainly were questionable. The first was late in the third quarter facemask penalty on Green Bay’s Tom Crabtree at the end of a punt return by Pittsburgh’s Antonio Brown. Looking at the replay, it looked like Crabtree got a hand on Brown’s jersey below his facemask. The penalty gave the Steelers field position at the 50 yard line. Five plays and 2:20 later, Mendenhall scored on an 8-yard touchdown run to make things 21-17.
Later on in the third quarter, Rodgers threw an apparent 3rd and 8 completion to Brett Swain, but the officials ruled it incomplete. Although instant replay confirmed the ruling on the field, it appeared Swain indeed made a clean catch and was down by contact before the ball was dislodged.
6. Scoring Drives: As predicted, neither team necessarily drove the ball consistently against each other on long sustaining drives. Two of the Packers scoring drives started around midfield. Their first-quarter touchdown drive covered 80 yards in 9 plays (capped by a 29-yard Rodgers to Nelson touchdown pass), and their fourth-quarter field goal drive covered 70 yards in 10 plays (capped by Mason Crosby’s 23-yarder with 2:07 left). Pittsburgh also started scoring drives near midfield, and also had two long drives, resulting in their first touchdown (2nd quarter, 77 yards in 7 plays, 1:45) and final touchdown (66 yards, 7 plays, 4:23). The shortest scoring play by either team was eight yards, so we never got to see any goal line plays. In fact, only five of the eight scoring drives by both teams combined involved the red zone, three by the Steelers (2 TDs and 1 FG) and two by the Packers (1 TD and 1 FG). Credit this to both defenses playing as well as possible in terms of disrupting the opposing offenses. Considering a total of 56 points were scored and 725 yards of total offense were generated, that may seem rather odd, but consider there were three Steelers turnovers, four combined sacks (3 by the Packers, 1 by the Steelers), and nine combined punts (6 by the Packers, 3 by the Steelers) to reflect the number of short-circuited drives.
7. Momentum Swings: When Collins returned Roethlisberger’s first quarter interception 37 yards for a touchdown, the Packers were up 14-0, and I started wondering if the pick-6 meant game, set, and match before the first quarter even ended. In case you didn’t know, the biggest deficit a winning team ever came back from in Super Bowl history is 10 points (Washington Redskins, winners of Super Bowl XXII, 42-10 over the Denver Broncos). Yes, the Steelers have comeback capability, but 14-0 in a Super Bowl? When the Packers went up 21-3, my concerns were: (1) are the Steelers toast? And (2) could the Steelers at least make things close in the second half? When the Steelers crept back within 21-17, I wondered if the Packers would be gasping at the end in order to hold off the Steelers like they were two weeks ago in the NFC Championship Game in Chicago. When it became 28-25, I honestly wondered if we were about to witness the biggest collapse in Super Bowl history by the Packers as Roethlisberger kept leading the comeback.
If you think about it, it seems this Super Bowl was a fitting reflection of the Packers and Steelers. During the regular season, 11 of the Packers 16 games were decided by 10 points or less. 9 of the Steelers 16 games were similarly close. Both teams were used to tight contests and dog fights headed down the stretch. The Steelers played Jekyll and Hyde type games in both AFC playoff games against the Ravens and Jets. The Packers also looked like two different teams during their NFC Championship Game win over the Bears. Watching the tide turn a few times seemed fitting.
8. Coaching Decisions: I didn’t have too many issues with either head coaches Mike McCarthy or Mike Tomlin in terms of game plan or in-game strategy. The only decision that seemed rather questionable was Tomlin sending out Shaun Suisham to attempt a 52-yard field goal with 4:30 left in the third quarter and the Steelers trailing 21-17. Suisham’s kick was so wide left it made me wonder if Suisham had any reliable range, even in a domed stadium. Considering it was 4th and 15 from the Green Bay 34, I thought the Steelers should’ve punted and pin the Packers back near their goal line, especially having turned momentum in their favor.
9. Close Shaves: If you watched the post-game interviews, did you notice how quickly several players got rid of their beards in the showers, particularly Roethlisberger? Just wondering if something can more definitively show us the football season is now officially over.
10. Halftime: Why, why, why are these shows so damn long? Was I the only one who got tired of the Black-Eyed Peas after their first song?
11. Fan Withdrawal: Now we all get to worry about the future of the NFL as March 3 and the expiration of the CBA approaches.
But it didn’t look like a close game for a while.
What happened? Some observations:
1. Injuries: The Packers lost two key members of their defensive secondary late in the second quarter, Charles Woodson to a collarbone injury and Sam Shields to a leg injury. Before both players went down, the Packers were leading 21-3, thanks to two interceptions of Ben Roethlisberger, one a 37-yard pick-6 by Nick Collins.
So what else is new? 16 members of the Packers roster ended up on injured reserve this season, and the Packers kept filling in their ranks, plugging along, and winning. Granted the defense started to buckle a bit without Woodson and Shields, allowing the Steelers to come all the way back to within 28-25 with seven minutes left in the game, but when plays needed to be made, the Packers found a way. When the Packers needed to snuff out the Steelers and hang onto a hard-fought win, they survived the war of attrition when Collins broke up a 4th and 5 pass from Roethlisberger to Mike Wallace from the Green Bay 33 yard line with less than a minute to go.
On the other hand, the Steelers managed quite well without wideout Emmanuel Sanders (2nd quarter leg injury), center Maurkice Pouncey (ankle) and even right tackle Flozell Adams, out for part of the first half with a should injury.
2. Running Game: As predicted, neither team ran for a lot of yards, but I was surprised how few times Green Bay attempted to run. The Packers rushed only 13 times for 50 yards, certainly effective enough (3.8 yards per carry) to encourage more balance by the offense. The Steelers rushed for an impressive 126 yards on 23 carries (5.5 yards per carry). But the Steelers fell behind 21-3, so Roethlisberger’s arm was needed more and more in order to get back into the game.
3. Turnovers: It’s no surprise turnovers happened. It’s surprising the Steelers were the only ones coughing up the ball. Roethlisberger tossed two first-half interceptions, and Rashard Mendenhall lost a crucial fumble early in the fourth quarter after the Steelers climbed back within 21-17. The Packers scored their third touchdown on Steelers gifts to go up 28-17.
4. Quarterbacks and Receivers: I’m not surprised Ben Roethlisberger and Aaron Rodgers each put up a lot of passes. I’m a little surprised how both seemed out of rhythm for two quarterbacks completing at least 60 percent of their passes. The number of dropped passes by Green Bay’s Jordy Nelson and the Steelers Mike Wallace more than raised my eyebrows.
5. Officiating: I didn’t have too many qualms with the referees, but two calls certainly were questionable. The first was late in the third quarter facemask penalty on Green Bay’s Tom Crabtree at the end of a punt return by Pittsburgh’s Antonio Brown. Looking at the replay, it looked like Crabtree got a hand on Brown’s jersey below his facemask. The penalty gave the Steelers field position at the 50 yard line. Five plays and 2:20 later, Mendenhall scored on an 8-yard touchdown run to make things 21-17.
Later on in the third quarter, Rodgers threw an apparent 3rd and 8 completion to Brett Swain, but the officials ruled it incomplete. Although instant replay confirmed the ruling on the field, it appeared Swain indeed made a clean catch and was down by contact before the ball was dislodged.
6. Scoring Drives: As predicted, neither team necessarily drove the ball consistently against each other on long sustaining drives. Two of the Packers scoring drives started around midfield. Their first-quarter touchdown drive covered 80 yards in 9 plays (capped by a 29-yard Rodgers to Nelson touchdown pass), and their fourth-quarter field goal drive covered 70 yards in 10 plays (capped by Mason Crosby’s 23-yarder with 2:07 left). Pittsburgh also started scoring drives near midfield, and also had two long drives, resulting in their first touchdown (2nd quarter, 77 yards in 7 plays, 1:45) and final touchdown (66 yards, 7 plays, 4:23). The shortest scoring play by either team was eight yards, so we never got to see any goal line plays. In fact, only five of the eight scoring drives by both teams combined involved the red zone, three by the Steelers (2 TDs and 1 FG) and two by the Packers (1 TD and 1 FG). Credit this to both defenses playing as well as possible in terms of disrupting the opposing offenses. Considering a total of 56 points were scored and 725 yards of total offense were generated, that may seem rather odd, but consider there were three Steelers turnovers, four combined sacks (3 by the Packers, 1 by the Steelers), and nine combined punts (6 by the Packers, 3 by the Steelers) to reflect the number of short-circuited drives.
7. Momentum Swings: When Collins returned Roethlisberger’s first quarter interception 37 yards for a touchdown, the Packers were up 14-0, and I started wondering if the pick-6 meant game, set, and match before the first quarter even ended. In case you didn’t know, the biggest deficit a winning team ever came back from in Super Bowl history is 10 points (Washington Redskins, winners of Super Bowl XXII, 42-10 over the Denver Broncos). Yes, the Steelers have comeback capability, but 14-0 in a Super Bowl? When the Packers went up 21-3, my concerns were: (1) are the Steelers toast? And (2) could the Steelers at least make things close in the second half? When the Steelers crept back within 21-17, I wondered if the Packers would be gasping at the end in order to hold off the Steelers like they were two weeks ago in the NFC Championship Game in Chicago. When it became 28-25, I honestly wondered if we were about to witness the biggest collapse in Super Bowl history by the Packers as Roethlisberger kept leading the comeback.
If you think about it, it seems this Super Bowl was a fitting reflection of the Packers and Steelers. During the regular season, 11 of the Packers 16 games were decided by 10 points or less. 9 of the Steelers 16 games were similarly close. Both teams were used to tight contests and dog fights headed down the stretch. The Steelers played Jekyll and Hyde type games in both AFC playoff games against the Ravens and Jets. The Packers also looked like two different teams during their NFC Championship Game win over the Bears. Watching the tide turn a few times seemed fitting.
8. Coaching Decisions: I didn’t have too many issues with either head coaches Mike McCarthy or Mike Tomlin in terms of game plan or in-game strategy. The only decision that seemed rather questionable was Tomlin sending out Shaun Suisham to attempt a 52-yard field goal with 4:30 left in the third quarter and the Steelers trailing 21-17. Suisham’s kick was so wide left it made me wonder if Suisham had any reliable range, even in a domed stadium. Considering it was 4th and 15 from the Green Bay 34, I thought the Steelers should’ve punted and pin the Packers back near their goal line, especially having turned momentum in their favor.
9. Close Shaves: If you watched the post-game interviews, did you notice how quickly several players got rid of their beards in the showers, particularly Roethlisberger? Just wondering if something can more definitively show us the football season is now officially over.
10. Halftime: Why, why, why are these shows so damn long? Was I the only one who got tired of the Black-Eyed Peas after their first song?
11. Fan Withdrawal: Now we all get to worry about the future of the NFL as March 3 and the expiration of the CBA approaches.
Saturday, February 5, 2011
Hoping Spouse Makes the Right Choice -- Life Thoughts for February 6, 2011
The other day I heard Mark Kelly, the Astronaut husband of Arizona Congresswoman Gabrielle Giffords, was choosing to go forward with his upcoming space mission for NASA in April, leaving his wife to continue her rehabilitation from a January gunshot wound to her brain. While I understand it's his business, as well as their business, deciding whether to go forward on a mission or stay at his wife's side, I can't help but offer my two cents on a private matter that's become very public.
Sir, you're making a bad judgment. You really should stay by your wife's side and forego your mission. Yes, I understand, work is work... but love is love, and you're dealing with a still evolving situation regarding your wife's health and recovery. Yes, I know this is what she'd want you to do, and she fully supports your career, and vice versa... but this is your wife, sans a good portion of her skull because a bullet went through her brain. Yes, I understand, her mother will be there to support and serve as her health proxy... but you're her husband, and if anything, heaven forbid, goes wrong while you're in space, you'll have to live with your decision to choose duty over DUTY.
Perhaps the time you're away will not matter and your wife will continue her progress and recovery, and maybe keeping tabs on her via Skype and internet will be positive for her. However, there's always the possibility something could turn for the worse, or she could experience another setback, or she could suddenly suffer an emotional breakdown because the man who should be at her side is millions of miles away when she needs you holding her hand most.
Why do I say these things? Because I've been there myself. I know what it's like to be in a hospital or rehabilitative facility after traumatic surgery and not have my spouse there at my side. I know what it's like to suffer a post-operative complication, requiring another trip to the operating room, and my ex-wife was thousands of miles away on a business trip unaware of what was going on. I know what it's like to not have your own family members or closest friends physically there at your side when something goes wrong, being all alone in a hospital bed with no support system whatsoever.
Yeah, yeah... people are busy. People have lives. People have jobs. People have vacations. People have other obligations. A person lying in a hospital bed with tubes coming in and out of him or her doesn't understand how pressing everything else is at that moment. That person only understands "I'm in crisis, and where the hell are my loved ones?"
I never fully recovered from my surgical ordeal, neither physically nor emotionally. I never forgave my ex-wife for deciding a business trip to France was more important than being there for her husband. For nine days I was out of communication with her, because seven time zones away was too difficult for her to coordinate for cell phone discussions. My surgeons had to track her down in a Paris airport to let her know I was headed back into surgery for a staph infection. My spouse was my entire family. My only blood relatives were wither living or on vacation in Florida. Even my closest friends were tied up with work, vacations or simply being too far away. I went through the majority of my ordeal all alone. I've hated my ex-wife every day since, even before we divorced. I've disowned my relatives. I no longer trust my own friends the way I used to... sadly, my friends are among the readers of this column and have to hear how I feel through it.
So, Commander Kelly, maybe it'll all work out for the better, but in case it doesn't, don't say someone didn't warn you. Hopefully you'll have the wisdom to change your mind if Congresswoman Giffords' health is iffy a month from now. A lot of things can happen for better or worse in 4-6 weeks. I hope you've given yourself a contingency plan in case it's better you be on Earth than space. If NASA has a problem with it, NASA should be ashamed of itself. After all, we are talking about a bullet passing through your wife's brain, not a broken leg or burst appendix.
If you do go out to space, don't be surprised if your wife's emotions towards you become unsteady. You can talk about how important career and obligation are, but you're still leaving your spouse at a time when she's still vulnerable in many ways. Even if she continues to make great strides in her physical recovery, there's still a lot of emotional healing that may get delayed while you're not there.
Sir, you're making a bad judgment. You really should stay by your wife's side and forego your mission. Yes, I understand, work is work... but love is love, and you're dealing with a still evolving situation regarding your wife's health and recovery. Yes, I know this is what she'd want you to do, and she fully supports your career, and vice versa... but this is your wife, sans a good portion of her skull because a bullet went through her brain. Yes, I understand, her mother will be there to support and serve as her health proxy... but you're her husband, and if anything, heaven forbid, goes wrong while you're in space, you'll have to live with your decision to choose duty over DUTY.
Perhaps the time you're away will not matter and your wife will continue her progress and recovery, and maybe keeping tabs on her via Skype and internet will be positive for her. However, there's always the possibility something could turn for the worse, or she could experience another setback, or she could suddenly suffer an emotional breakdown because the man who should be at her side is millions of miles away when she needs you holding her hand most.
Why do I say these things? Because I've been there myself. I know what it's like to be in a hospital or rehabilitative facility after traumatic surgery and not have my spouse there at my side. I know what it's like to suffer a post-operative complication, requiring another trip to the operating room, and my ex-wife was thousands of miles away on a business trip unaware of what was going on. I know what it's like to not have your own family members or closest friends physically there at your side when something goes wrong, being all alone in a hospital bed with no support system whatsoever.
Yeah, yeah... people are busy. People have lives. People have jobs. People have vacations. People have other obligations. A person lying in a hospital bed with tubes coming in and out of him or her doesn't understand how pressing everything else is at that moment. That person only understands "I'm in crisis, and where the hell are my loved ones?"
I never fully recovered from my surgical ordeal, neither physically nor emotionally. I never forgave my ex-wife for deciding a business trip to France was more important than being there for her husband. For nine days I was out of communication with her, because seven time zones away was too difficult for her to coordinate for cell phone discussions. My surgeons had to track her down in a Paris airport to let her know I was headed back into surgery for a staph infection. My spouse was my entire family. My only blood relatives were wither living or on vacation in Florida. Even my closest friends were tied up with work, vacations or simply being too far away. I went through the majority of my ordeal all alone. I've hated my ex-wife every day since, even before we divorced. I've disowned my relatives. I no longer trust my own friends the way I used to... sadly, my friends are among the readers of this column and have to hear how I feel through it.
So, Commander Kelly, maybe it'll all work out for the better, but in case it doesn't, don't say someone didn't warn you. Hopefully you'll have the wisdom to change your mind if Congresswoman Giffords' health is iffy a month from now. A lot of things can happen for better or worse in 4-6 weeks. I hope you've given yourself a contingency plan in case it's better you be on Earth than space. If NASA has a problem with it, NASA should be ashamed of itself. After all, we are talking about a bullet passing through your wife's brain, not a broken leg or burst appendix.
If you do go out to space, don't be surprised if your wife's emotions towards you become unsteady. You can talk about how important career and obligation are, but you're still leaving your spouse at a time when she's still vulnerable in many ways. Even if she continues to make great strides in her physical recovery, there's still a lot of emotional healing that may get delayed while you're not there.
Ten Reasons why the Packers will win Super Bowl XLV -- Sports Thoughts for February 6, 2011
Okay, drum roll, please... For those of you anticipating the winner of Super Bowl XLV Sunday in Arlington, Texas... the Green Bay Packers will defeat the Pittsburgh Steelers, 10-7, in the lowest-scoring Super Bowl ever.
No way!
Way!
Why Green Bay, and why 10-7? Let me count the ways...
1. Defense: The Steelers and Packers ranked as the top two teams in the NFL in fewest points allowed this season. The Steelers finished first, allowing 232 points; the Packers finished second, allowing 240. In case you're scoring at home, that means if both defenses live up to their regular season statistics, we're looking at a 15-14 type of game. My point? It would be quite ambitious to expect these teams combining for 45 points (the over-under from Las Vegas), much less the 73 points these teams combined for last year in a 37-36 Steelers win.
This is the fourth time in Super Bowl history where the top two scoring defenses met up. The previous matchups were Super Bowl IV (Kansas City-Minnesota), Super Bowl VIII (Miami-Minnesota) and Super Bowl XVII (Miami-Washington). The final scores? 23-7, 24-7, 27-17 (that game included a kickoff return for touchdown). Don't expect a barn burner. If anything, one defense will live up to its billing and the other will eventually fall flat. However, I don't expect that to be the case.
2. Running Game: The Steelers have a decent one, but hardly overpowering. The Packers did without one for most of the season until James Starks broke out during the playoffs. Rashard Mendenhall demonstrated what a force he can be for the Steelers, but keep in mind that his most noteworthy performances were twice against the Jets and the season opener against Atlanta. Otherwise, the Steelers present enough of a running game to keep the chains moving and defenses honest. Don't expect either team to rush for a lot of yards, but definitely expect both teams to attempt 20-25 rushes in order to maintain some offensive balance. If either team is able to rush for an average of 3.0-3.5 yards per rush, that could be effective enough.
3. Offensive Line: Pittsburgh's has been banged up since before the season even started, when they lost right tackle Willie Colon to an Achilles injury. Now they're without Pro Bowl rookie center Maurkice Pouncey to an ankle injury suffered in the first half of the AFC championship game. Before Pouncey's injury, the Steelers ran roughshod over the Jets defense. Afterwards, the Steelers running game was held in check. Although Doug Legursky is quite capable of filling in, there will be a considerable drop-off in how effectively the Steelers run block, especially up the middle, where they ran more than half of their running plays against the Jets. While the Packers offensive line is relatively healthy, there is some reason for concern about 13-year veteran left tackle Chad Clifton holding up against the Steelers pass rushers. Clifton got dinged up during the NFC championship game win at Chicago.
4. Quarterbacks: Okay, Ben Roethlisberger and Aaron Rodgers are clearly among the best in the NFL this season, and if last year's 37-36 game was any indication, both should put on a similar show in Cowboys Stadium. But they won't. Both quarterbacks are nursing bumps and bruises after a long season. Rodgers has suffered two concussions and clearly wasn't playing like himself after a helmet-to-helmet shot from the Bears Julius Peppers two weeks ago. Roethlisberger's played with a broken foot and nose this season. Both quarterbacks are mobile and have strong arms, but both have also taken their share of hits and sacks. Going up against each other's defenses while both units are playing at their best during much of the post-season should make things more challenging than a year ago. Expect both quarterbacks to make plays, but don't expect any sustained consistency.
5. Defensive Backs: Both teams have solid defensive backfields, but each team has its own strength. The Steelers defensive backfield is led by strong safety and NFL Defensive Player of the Year, Troy Polamalu. Although Polamalu has been nursing an Achilles injury for the past several weeks, he's still a force when it comes to blitzes and stopping the run. In fact, the entire Steelers defensive backfield is better known for its run defense than pass coverage, even though the Steelers were fifth in the NFL with 21 pass interceptions this season.
On the other hand, the Packers defensive backfield is a tremendous collection of ball hawks, led by last year's Defensive Player of the Year, Charles Woodson. The Packers have intercepted six passes so far this post-season (adding to their league-leading 24 during the regular season), five combined by cornerbacks Tramon Williams and Sam Shields (the other, by the way, was by super-sized defensive lineman B.J. Raji). The Packers defensive backs are excellent in coverage and can suffocate a receiving corps. In many regards, the Packers ability to generate turnovers is very reminiscent of how the Saints defense operated all season long in 2009 en route to their Super Bowl XLIV title.
6. Pass Rush: Both teams have one. In fact, the Steelers and Packers ranked first and second in sacks with 48 and 47, respectively. Even though Roethlisberger and Rodgers do a good job of eluding the rush, both have taken their hits and all it takes is one to knock a quarterback off his game, or at least a little dizzy.
7. Linebackers: In a 3-4 defensive alignment, a solid linebacking unit is critical. The Steelers bring their own heavy hitters in James Farrior, LaMarr Woodley and James "I hit 'em the way football should be" Harrison. Add in solid depth with Lawrence Timmons and Larry Foote, and you have a unit that's dominant against the run and brutal at blitzing quarterbacks. If the Steelers have any weakness in this unit, it's age and speed to keep up with receivers in pass coverage.
For the Packers, their linebacking unit is young, fast, and hard hitting: Defensive Player of the Year runner-up Clay Matthews, A.J. Hawk, and Desmond Bishop. Matthews led all linebackers with 13.5 sacks during the regular season and 3.5 more during the post-season.
8. Defensive Coordinators: C'mon... are you kidding me?! Dick LeBeau (Steelers) and Dom Capers (Packers) are the godfathers of the zone blitz. While both incorporate their own wrinkles and twists, it's still the same dominant scheme first developed almost 40 years ago by the late Bud Carson, the Steelers defensive guru during their dynasty years of the 1970s.
9. Field Position: Laugh if you must, but neither team necessarily has the best kickoff coverage. It's quite possible both teams could be starting offensive drives in excellent field position. However, one factor many may overlook is Packers punter, Tim Masthay. Masthay has been excellent all post-season with directional punting. The Steelers have already demonstrated a couple of times this season their difficulties with starting drives in the shadow of their end zone (see week 15 and AFC Championship Game safeties allowed to the Jets). If Masthay can pin the Steelers deep on punts, that puts extra pressure on the Steelers offense and a patchwork offensive line, especially with the center-quarterback exchange.
10. Intangibles: Yes, both teams come into the Super Bowl on a roll, but neither team is necessarily operating on all cylinders. The NFL season is a war of attrition, and even the ideal environment of a domed stadium doesn't guarantee a classic offensive show. Players have played the past few weeks in inclement weather, have had to deal with unexpected bad weather in the Dallas area all week as they balance game preparation with the excitement and circus of Super Bowl week. As much as he tries to compartmentalize the events of his season, one has to imagine the media attention Ben Roethlisberger has repeated dealt with might affect his emotions and focus. Even Aaron Rodger has had to deal with Brett Favre questions, even though Favre hasn't quarterbacked the Packers since the 2007 season.
Even if this is "just a football game", it's still THE football game of the year, the most-watched television event of the year, with all kinds of added fluff. NFL teams are used to games kicking off at 1:00pm, 4;15pm or 8:30pm. Sure, once you make it to the Super Bowl, you're already used to primetime kickoffs and extra television cameras, but let's not overlook the potential impact of an extra-long pre-game introduction and hoopla, not to mention an extra-long halftime show. Any number of seemingly benign things could create a focus-breaking distraction. Both teams are clearly the best in their conferences and deserving of this matchup, but one has to take big-game experience into account, normalcy of routine by the coaching staff, as well as players being, or not being, at their peak.
But the bottom line is that when two top defensive teams meet up, the logical expectation is for both defenses to live up to their billing. While both offenses are impressive, neither should have sustained success. I expect a few big plays. In fact, I'd expect those big plays might be the only way either offense can consistently move the ball into scoring position. I don't think either team will be able to consistently drive the length of the field on each other, so I expect few touchdowns to be scored. I also expect we'll see a few mistakes in terms of short-circuited drives and turnovers. I'm also not completely sold on either team's field goal kickers outside the 40 yard line, so scoring will likely be at a premium.
However, I have a little more confidence in Packers placekicker Mason Crosby than Steelers placekicker Shaun Suisham, and this may indeed be the ultimate edge in what should be a very low scoring and close game.
No way!
Way!
Why Green Bay, and why 10-7? Let me count the ways...
1. Defense: The Steelers and Packers ranked as the top two teams in the NFL in fewest points allowed this season. The Steelers finished first, allowing 232 points; the Packers finished second, allowing 240. In case you're scoring at home, that means if both defenses live up to their regular season statistics, we're looking at a 15-14 type of game. My point? It would be quite ambitious to expect these teams combining for 45 points (the over-under from Las Vegas), much less the 73 points these teams combined for last year in a 37-36 Steelers win.
This is the fourth time in Super Bowl history where the top two scoring defenses met up. The previous matchups were Super Bowl IV (Kansas City-Minnesota), Super Bowl VIII (Miami-Minnesota) and Super Bowl XVII (Miami-Washington). The final scores? 23-7, 24-7, 27-17 (that game included a kickoff return for touchdown). Don't expect a barn burner. If anything, one defense will live up to its billing and the other will eventually fall flat. However, I don't expect that to be the case.
2. Running Game: The Steelers have a decent one, but hardly overpowering. The Packers did without one for most of the season until James Starks broke out during the playoffs. Rashard Mendenhall demonstrated what a force he can be for the Steelers, but keep in mind that his most noteworthy performances were twice against the Jets and the season opener against Atlanta. Otherwise, the Steelers present enough of a running game to keep the chains moving and defenses honest. Don't expect either team to rush for a lot of yards, but definitely expect both teams to attempt 20-25 rushes in order to maintain some offensive balance. If either team is able to rush for an average of 3.0-3.5 yards per rush, that could be effective enough.
3. Offensive Line: Pittsburgh's has been banged up since before the season even started, when they lost right tackle Willie Colon to an Achilles injury. Now they're without Pro Bowl rookie center Maurkice Pouncey to an ankle injury suffered in the first half of the AFC championship game. Before Pouncey's injury, the Steelers ran roughshod over the Jets defense. Afterwards, the Steelers running game was held in check. Although Doug Legursky is quite capable of filling in, there will be a considerable drop-off in how effectively the Steelers run block, especially up the middle, where they ran more than half of their running plays against the Jets. While the Packers offensive line is relatively healthy, there is some reason for concern about 13-year veteran left tackle Chad Clifton holding up against the Steelers pass rushers. Clifton got dinged up during the NFC championship game win at Chicago.
4. Quarterbacks: Okay, Ben Roethlisberger and Aaron Rodgers are clearly among the best in the NFL this season, and if last year's 37-36 game was any indication, both should put on a similar show in Cowboys Stadium. But they won't. Both quarterbacks are nursing bumps and bruises after a long season. Rodgers has suffered two concussions and clearly wasn't playing like himself after a helmet-to-helmet shot from the Bears Julius Peppers two weeks ago. Roethlisberger's played with a broken foot and nose this season. Both quarterbacks are mobile and have strong arms, but both have also taken their share of hits and sacks. Going up against each other's defenses while both units are playing at their best during much of the post-season should make things more challenging than a year ago. Expect both quarterbacks to make plays, but don't expect any sustained consistency.
5. Defensive Backs: Both teams have solid defensive backfields, but each team has its own strength. The Steelers defensive backfield is led by strong safety and NFL Defensive Player of the Year, Troy Polamalu. Although Polamalu has been nursing an Achilles injury for the past several weeks, he's still a force when it comes to blitzes and stopping the run. In fact, the entire Steelers defensive backfield is better known for its run defense than pass coverage, even though the Steelers were fifth in the NFL with 21 pass interceptions this season.
On the other hand, the Packers defensive backfield is a tremendous collection of ball hawks, led by last year's Defensive Player of the Year, Charles Woodson. The Packers have intercepted six passes so far this post-season (adding to their league-leading 24 during the regular season), five combined by cornerbacks Tramon Williams and Sam Shields (the other, by the way, was by super-sized defensive lineman B.J. Raji). The Packers defensive backs are excellent in coverage and can suffocate a receiving corps. In many regards, the Packers ability to generate turnovers is very reminiscent of how the Saints defense operated all season long in 2009 en route to their Super Bowl XLIV title.
6. Pass Rush: Both teams have one. In fact, the Steelers and Packers ranked first and second in sacks with 48 and 47, respectively. Even though Roethlisberger and Rodgers do a good job of eluding the rush, both have taken their hits and all it takes is one to knock a quarterback off his game, or at least a little dizzy.
7. Linebackers: In a 3-4 defensive alignment, a solid linebacking unit is critical. The Steelers bring their own heavy hitters in James Farrior, LaMarr Woodley and James "I hit 'em the way football should be" Harrison. Add in solid depth with Lawrence Timmons and Larry Foote, and you have a unit that's dominant against the run and brutal at blitzing quarterbacks. If the Steelers have any weakness in this unit, it's age and speed to keep up with receivers in pass coverage.
For the Packers, their linebacking unit is young, fast, and hard hitting: Defensive Player of the Year runner-up Clay Matthews, A.J. Hawk, and Desmond Bishop. Matthews led all linebackers with 13.5 sacks during the regular season and 3.5 more during the post-season.
8. Defensive Coordinators: C'mon... are you kidding me?! Dick LeBeau (Steelers) and Dom Capers (Packers) are the godfathers of the zone blitz. While both incorporate their own wrinkles and twists, it's still the same dominant scheme first developed almost 40 years ago by the late Bud Carson, the Steelers defensive guru during their dynasty years of the 1970s.
9. Field Position: Laugh if you must, but neither team necessarily has the best kickoff coverage. It's quite possible both teams could be starting offensive drives in excellent field position. However, one factor many may overlook is Packers punter, Tim Masthay. Masthay has been excellent all post-season with directional punting. The Steelers have already demonstrated a couple of times this season their difficulties with starting drives in the shadow of their end zone (see week 15 and AFC Championship Game safeties allowed to the Jets). If Masthay can pin the Steelers deep on punts, that puts extra pressure on the Steelers offense and a patchwork offensive line, especially with the center-quarterback exchange.
10. Intangibles: Yes, both teams come into the Super Bowl on a roll, but neither team is necessarily operating on all cylinders. The NFL season is a war of attrition, and even the ideal environment of a domed stadium doesn't guarantee a classic offensive show. Players have played the past few weeks in inclement weather, have had to deal with unexpected bad weather in the Dallas area all week as they balance game preparation with the excitement and circus of Super Bowl week. As much as he tries to compartmentalize the events of his season, one has to imagine the media attention Ben Roethlisberger has repeated dealt with might affect his emotions and focus. Even Aaron Rodger has had to deal with Brett Favre questions, even though Favre hasn't quarterbacked the Packers since the 2007 season.
Even if this is "just a football game", it's still THE football game of the year, the most-watched television event of the year, with all kinds of added fluff. NFL teams are used to games kicking off at 1:00pm, 4;15pm or 8:30pm. Sure, once you make it to the Super Bowl, you're already used to primetime kickoffs and extra television cameras, but let's not overlook the potential impact of an extra-long pre-game introduction and hoopla, not to mention an extra-long halftime show. Any number of seemingly benign things could create a focus-breaking distraction. Both teams are clearly the best in their conferences and deserving of this matchup, but one has to take big-game experience into account, normalcy of routine by the coaching staff, as well as players being, or not being, at their peak.
But the bottom line is that when two top defensive teams meet up, the logical expectation is for both defenses to live up to their billing. While both offenses are impressive, neither should have sustained success. I expect a few big plays. In fact, I'd expect those big plays might be the only way either offense can consistently move the ball into scoring position. I don't think either team will be able to consistently drive the length of the field on each other, so I expect few touchdowns to be scored. I also expect we'll see a few mistakes in terms of short-circuited drives and turnovers. I'm also not completely sold on either team's field goal kickers outside the 40 yard line, so scoring will likely be at a premium.
However, I have a little more confidence in Packers placekicker Mason Crosby than Steelers placekicker Shaun Suisham, and this may indeed be the ultimate edge in what should be a very low scoring and close game.
Monday, January 24, 2011
There’s no Disgrace in “Wait ‘till next year” -- Sports Thoughts for January 24, 2011
Let me congratulate the Pittsburgh Steelers and Green Bay Packers for representing the AFC and NFC, respectively, in Super Bowl XLV. Both teams won hard-fought conference title games. Both teams outlasted their opponents and held on when they needed to in the closing minutes of their games. Both teams are talented, play bruising defense, and can move the ball by ground or air. It should be a fun game February 6 in Dallas. Still two weeks from kick-off, it’s a toss-up in my mind who will win, but rest assured, points will be at a premium, so don’t be surprised by a 10-7 contest.
But I’m not here today to write about the teams who will play in Super Bowl XLV. I’m here to write about one team we won’t see in Dallas, the New York Jets, who fell short 24-19 at Heinz Field Sunday evening. I’m also here to write about another team of an era long ago, a team many tend to think about when we look at Rex Ryan’s Jets, the 1967-1977 Oakland Raiders.
At first glance, most folks think Ryan’s Jets are distant cousins of those Raiders teams, constructed by General Manager Al Davis and coached by John Rauch (1967-1968) then John Madden (1969-1977). Remember those Raiders? They shot their mouths off at will, hit opponents hard (perhaps even dirty), and the roster seemed like a collection of outlaws, misfits and cast-offs. During an eleven-year stretch, the Silver-and-Black Pride-and-Poise Boys went 119-28-7, appeared in ten postseasons, won nine AFL-AFC Western Division crowns, and played in nine AFL-AFC championship games. Commitment to Excellence was their motto, and boy, did they excel.
But a funny thing happened on the way to excellence during those eleven years. The Raiders post-season record was a mere 11-9, and they lost seven of those nine AFL-AFC championship games. You see, Commitment to Excellence may have been the motto in the San Francisco Bay area, but the rest of professional football knew the Raiders as “Next Year’s Champions.”
Now, there’s nothing exactly wrong with the moniker “Next Year’s Champions.” After all, the Brooklyn Dodgers wore that moniker well during the 1940s and 1950s, forever being the Yankees’ foils until ‘Dem Bums finally won their first world series in 1955. If it was good enough for Duke Snider, Pee Wee Reese, Jackie Robinson, Gil Hodges and Roy Campanella, it was good enough for Erasmus High School alum Al Davis and his “Raidahs” -- Gene Upshaw, Art Shell, Jim Otto and Fred Biletnikoff. But while the Brooklyn Dodgers multiple heartbreaks against the Yankees almost seemed poetic and romantic, the Raiders championship game losses earned a rueful reputation of “can’t winning the big one.”
It all started with the 1967 AFL championship game, the Raiders beating the old Houston Oilers 40-7. Afterwards, infamous defensive lineman “Big Bad” Ben Davidson declared, King Kong and ten gorillas couldn’t beat us! Well, Davidson and company earned a trip to Miami and Super Bowl II against Vince Lombardi’s Packers and were roundly whipped, 33-14.
From 1968 to 1975, the Raiders made the playoffs seven out of eight seasons (they missed the playoffs in 1971). Each post-season ended as follows:
1968: Lost AFL championship game to the Jets, 27-23 (Jets won Super Bowl III)
1969: Lost AFL championship game to the Kansas City Chiefs, 17-7 (Chiefs won Super Bowl IV)
1970: Lost AFC championship game to the old Baltimore Colts, 27-17 (Colts won Super Bowl V)
1972: Lost AFC divisional game to the Steelers, 13-7 (Steelers lost AFC title game to Miami Dolphins)
1973: Lost AFC championship game to the Dolphins, 27-10 (Dolphins won Super Bowl VIII)
1974: Lost AFC championship game to the Steelers, 24-13 (Steelers won Super Bowl IX)
1975: Lost AFC championship game to the Steelers, 16-10 (Steelers won Super Bowl X)
Oh the pain. Oh the wounded pride. Seven post-season exits, six championship game losses, two separate three-peats (and not the good ones).
Along came 1976. The Raiders went 13-1-0, winning yet another AFC West crown, survived a divisional playoff game they should’ve lost, beating the New England Patriots, 24-21 (avenging their only regular season loss, 48-17, in Foxborough), and hosting their post-season albatross, the Pittsburgh Steelers. The defending two-time champions were 10-4-0, and had perhaps the greatest defensive season of all time, giving up only 138 total points, a mind-boggling TWENTY-EIGHT during the final nine regular season games. After a 1-4-0 start, the Steelers closed the regular season with a nine-game winning streak that included FIVE shutouts and beating opponents by a composite score of 234-28!
The Steelers were fresh off a 40-14 pasting of the Baltimore Colts, but unfortunately lost both starting running backs, Franco Harris and Rocky Bleier, to injuries. Without their two thousand-yard rushers (Harris and Bleier combined for 2,164 yards and 19 TDs), the Steelers offense could not compete with the Raiders. Lo and behold, the Raiders finally returned to the Super Bowl, beating the Steelers 24-7. Two weeks later, the Raiders won Super Bowl XI, defeating the Minnesota Vikings 32-14 (FYI: that was the Vikings’ fourth Super Bowl loss, but that’s for another story).
And the Raiders lived happily ever after, right? Well, the Raiders returned to form in 1977, losing another AFC championship, 20-17 to the Denver Broncos, then missed the playoffs in 1978 and 1979. But the Raiders returned to the Super Bowl after the 1980 and 1983 seasons, winning two more titles and reinforcing their legend (FYI: The Raiders haven’t won a Super Bowl since, and haven’t had a winning season since losing Super Bowl XXXVII after the 2002 season).
Are you starting to see some resemblance to Rex Ryan’s Jets?
Why did the Jets lose last night? Well, as was the case for the 1967-1977 Raiders, the other team was more physical at the line of scrimmage, ran the ball better, made fewer mistakes, made key plays when they needed to, perhaps had more lucky breaks... Oh, and the other team perhaps was simply better.
Were the Jets emotionally flat last night after beating the Colts and Patriots on the road during the first two rounds? I don’t necessarily think so. Just looking at the Steelers first offensive drive — 15 plays, 66 yards, 7 first downs, 9:06 time of possession — it was clear the Jets didn’t have a solution yet for running back Rashard Mendenhall, who ran roughshod through arm tackles just like he did back in week 15. Despite winning that week 15 game 22-17, Rex Ryan admitted his defense didn’t play as well as he wanted. Mendenhall rushed for 99 yards back then; he rushed for 95 yards in the first half alone last night. Rex Ryan may have finally figured out a way to beat Peyton Manning and Tom Brady, but he needed extended time for Mendenhall.
With Mendenhall able to run, the Steelers built a 24-3 halftime lead, outgaining the Jets in total yardage, 231-50. More evident of which team controlled the line of scrimmage was the Steelers defense held the Jets to ONE yard rushing. Granted, many thought the 106 yards the Jets rushed for in week 15 was somewhat of a fluke, but ONE yard? Was the Steelers rush defense that good?
In the second half, a completely different Jets defense came out of the locker room, holding Mendenhall to 26 yards. In fact, it almost seemed like the teams switched uniforms — the Jets outscored the Steelers 16-0, and outgained them 239-56. The Jets even rushed for 69 yards, showing they were indeed capable of running on the Steelers defense. Unfortunately for the Jets, the Steelers offense made the last two key plays for first downs — a second-and-twelve completion from Ben Roethlisberger to tight end Heath Miller, and a third-and-six completion to rookie receiver Antonio Brown — and a valiant Jets comeback was snuffed out.
Could the Jets come all the way back from a 24-0 hole and win the biggest comeback in conference championship history? If the Jets defense prevented one of those last two first downs, there was hope, even if with less than a minute left, no timeouts, and possibly the length of the field to go for a winning touchdown. Perhaps Rex Ryan should’ve opted for the onside kickoff when it was 24-19 and three minutes left. Perhaps he should’ve rolled the dice against a gassed Steelers defense instead of his own defense running on fumes.
When the clock ran down, the Steelers outlasted the Jets more than beat them. The Jets offense certainly had the Steelers defense on the ropes. But 24-0 proved too much of a hole to climb out of. The Steelers DID beat the Jets last night before halftime; the Steelers simply never got to put the final stake in Gang Green’s heart until the bitter end.
What does this tell us about Rex Ryan and his merry band of Jets? Well, just as they made off-season moves to shore up the defense for a playoff battle against Peyton Manning and Tom Brady, they’ll need to make a few more moves in order to handle running backs like Rashard Mendenhall better. They could use a real pass rushing defensive lineman. The secondary, outside of Darrelle Revis, needs to play more consistently. Offensively, they may need to tinker with the running game, diversify it beyond Shonn Greene and L’Danian Tomlinson (i.e., let’s see more Joe McKnight) and get more depth on the offensive line. Maybe they need to upgrade the kicking game.
Of course, perhaps it might help to win the AFC East and guarantee a home playoff game. If the Jets beat the Patriots back in week 13, rather than get blown out 45-3, would it have made a difference? The Patriots might still have won the division at 13-3. The Jets needed to be better than 11-5. They needed to avoid laying eggs at home against the Ravens (week 1), Packers (week 8) and Dolphins (week 14). If the Jets managed to score a single touchdown in each game, they could’ve been 14-2, even with getting their heads handed to them in Foxborough in week 13.
But the team is loaded with talent, especially at the skill positions, not to mention a steadily maturing franchise quarterback. Unlike championship-caliber teams with short shelf lives (e.g., the 1986-1989 Cleveland Browns), the Jets are built to be among the top 3-4 teams in the AFC for at least the next 4-5 years. And despite what some members of the fan base think, the Jets have a very solid and smart coaching staff. Would it be nice if Rex Ryan and company did less yakking? Sure, but it’s hard to argue with two straight AFC title game appearances, something no other Jets team has ever done — not under Weeb Ewbank, Walt Michaels, Joe Walton, Bill Parcells, or Herman Edwards, the only other head coaches to produce consecutive winning seasons.
Sure, it’s a little silly for Ryan in his post-game press conference to tell folks they “have no right” to criticize the Jets, but he was right on the money on one thing: they will be back next year to chase a Super Bowl, and the next year, and the next year, and for every year Rex Ryan serves as head coach. You have to give him and the team credit for setting their goal, talking about it ad nauseum, and never backing down. Just the way they came back from 24-0, kept fighting until the end, and kept the outcome in doubt until the Roethlisberger to Brown completion, you see a team driven, a team on a mission, a team thoroughly committed to not going away.
Do I guarantee we’ll see the Jets in Super Bowl XLVI, or XLVII or XLVIII? No, but I like their chances, better than I like Baltimore’s with Joe Flacco at quarterback, or San Diego’s with A.J. Smith as general manager, or the Colts’ with limited defensive depth. Are the Chiefs more than a one-year wonder? Are the Raiders really on the upswing? Are the Titans, Jaguars and Dolphins above mediocrity? Will we honestly hear from the Bengals, Browns, Bills, Broncos or Texans anytime soon?
The Patriots and Steelers are both built to remain a perpetual part of the discussion. The Patriots began this millennium winning three Super Bowl titles in a four-year period. The Steelers are in position to win their third in a five-year span. The Jets are also part of the discussion.
For Jets fans who can’t take the disappointment of two straight title game exits, I suggest you study your history, and not just the history of “Same old Jets.” Take a look at teams who had periods of falling short and see how things eventually paid off — the 1967-1977 Raiders, the 1966-1983 Cowboys, the 1971-1992 Redskins, even the 1990-1994 49ers or 1992-1998 Packers. Lots of teams had a few years of title game heartbreak before finally winning it all. The Jets don’t even crack the top-5 on the list for perseverance. So crawl out of your dark closets, look out at the sunny sky, and look forward to next season. I’ll guarantee you Rex Ryan already is.
But I’m not here today to write about the teams who will play in Super Bowl XLV. I’m here to write about one team we won’t see in Dallas, the New York Jets, who fell short 24-19 at Heinz Field Sunday evening. I’m also here to write about another team of an era long ago, a team many tend to think about when we look at Rex Ryan’s Jets, the 1967-1977 Oakland Raiders.
At first glance, most folks think Ryan’s Jets are distant cousins of those Raiders teams, constructed by General Manager Al Davis and coached by John Rauch (1967-1968) then John Madden (1969-1977). Remember those Raiders? They shot their mouths off at will, hit opponents hard (perhaps even dirty), and the roster seemed like a collection of outlaws, misfits and cast-offs. During an eleven-year stretch, the Silver-and-Black Pride-and-Poise Boys went 119-28-7, appeared in ten postseasons, won nine AFL-AFC Western Division crowns, and played in nine AFL-AFC championship games. Commitment to Excellence was their motto, and boy, did they excel.
But a funny thing happened on the way to excellence during those eleven years. The Raiders post-season record was a mere 11-9, and they lost seven of those nine AFL-AFC championship games. You see, Commitment to Excellence may have been the motto in the San Francisco Bay area, but the rest of professional football knew the Raiders as “Next Year’s Champions.”
Now, there’s nothing exactly wrong with the moniker “Next Year’s Champions.” After all, the Brooklyn Dodgers wore that moniker well during the 1940s and 1950s, forever being the Yankees’ foils until ‘Dem Bums finally won their first world series in 1955. If it was good enough for Duke Snider, Pee Wee Reese, Jackie Robinson, Gil Hodges and Roy Campanella, it was good enough for Erasmus High School alum Al Davis and his “Raidahs” -- Gene Upshaw, Art Shell, Jim Otto and Fred Biletnikoff. But while the Brooklyn Dodgers multiple heartbreaks against the Yankees almost seemed poetic and romantic, the Raiders championship game losses earned a rueful reputation of “can’t winning the big one.”
It all started with the 1967 AFL championship game, the Raiders beating the old Houston Oilers 40-7. Afterwards, infamous defensive lineman “Big Bad” Ben Davidson declared, King Kong and ten gorillas couldn’t beat us! Well, Davidson and company earned a trip to Miami and Super Bowl II against Vince Lombardi’s Packers and were roundly whipped, 33-14.
From 1968 to 1975, the Raiders made the playoffs seven out of eight seasons (they missed the playoffs in 1971). Each post-season ended as follows:
1968: Lost AFL championship game to the Jets, 27-23 (Jets won Super Bowl III)
1969: Lost AFL championship game to the Kansas City Chiefs, 17-7 (Chiefs won Super Bowl IV)
1970: Lost AFC championship game to the old Baltimore Colts, 27-17 (Colts won Super Bowl V)
1972: Lost AFC divisional game to the Steelers, 13-7 (Steelers lost AFC title game to Miami Dolphins)
1973: Lost AFC championship game to the Dolphins, 27-10 (Dolphins won Super Bowl VIII)
1974: Lost AFC championship game to the Steelers, 24-13 (Steelers won Super Bowl IX)
1975: Lost AFC championship game to the Steelers, 16-10 (Steelers won Super Bowl X)
Oh the pain. Oh the wounded pride. Seven post-season exits, six championship game losses, two separate three-peats (and not the good ones).
Along came 1976. The Raiders went 13-1-0, winning yet another AFC West crown, survived a divisional playoff game they should’ve lost, beating the New England Patriots, 24-21 (avenging their only regular season loss, 48-17, in Foxborough), and hosting their post-season albatross, the Pittsburgh Steelers. The defending two-time champions were 10-4-0, and had perhaps the greatest defensive season of all time, giving up only 138 total points, a mind-boggling TWENTY-EIGHT during the final nine regular season games. After a 1-4-0 start, the Steelers closed the regular season with a nine-game winning streak that included FIVE shutouts and beating opponents by a composite score of 234-28!
The Steelers were fresh off a 40-14 pasting of the Baltimore Colts, but unfortunately lost both starting running backs, Franco Harris and Rocky Bleier, to injuries. Without their two thousand-yard rushers (Harris and Bleier combined for 2,164 yards and 19 TDs), the Steelers offense could not compete with the Raiders. Lo and behold, the Raiders finally returned to the Super Bowl, beating the Steelers 24-7. Two weeks later, the Raiders won Super Bowl XI, defeating the Minnesota Vikings 32-14 (FYI: that was the Vikings’ fourth Super Bowl loss, but that’s for another story).
And the Raiders lived happily ever after, right? Well, the Raiders returned to form in 1977, losing another AFC championship, 20-17 to the Denver Broncos, then missed the playoffs in 1978 and 1979. But the Raiders returned to the Super Bowl after the 1980 and 1983 seasons, winning two more titles and reinforcing their legend (FYI: The Raiders haven’t won a Super Bowl since, and haven’t had a winning season since losing Super Bowl XXXVII after the 2002 season).
Are you starting to see some resemblance to Rex Ryan’s Jets?
Why did the Jets lose last night? Well, as was the case for the 1967-1977 Raiders, the other team was more physical at the line of scrimmage, ran the ball better, made fewer mistakes, made key plays when they needed to, perhaps had more lucky breaks... Oh, and the other team perhaps was simply better.
Were the Jets emotionally flat last night after beating the Colts and Patriots on the road during the first two rounds? I don’t necessarily think so. Just looking at the Steelers first offensive drive — 15 plays, 66 yards, 7 first downs, 9:06 time of possession — it was clear the Jets didn’t have a solution yet for running back Rashard Mendenhall, who ran roughshod through arm tackles just like he did back in week 15. Despite winning that week 15 game 22-17, Rex Ryan admitted his defense didn’t play as well as he wanted. Mendenhall rushed for 99 yards back then; he rushed for 95 yards in the first half alone last night. Rex Ryan may have finally figured out a way to beat Peyton Manning and Tom Brady, but he needed extended time for Mendenhall.
With Mendenhall able to run, the Steelers built a 24-3 halftime lead, outgaining the Jets in total yardage, 231-50. More evident of which team controlled the line of scrimmage was the Steelers defense held the Jets to ONE yard rushing. Granted, many thought the 106 yards the Jets rushed for in week 15 was somewhat of a fluke, but ONE yard? Was the Steelers rush defense that good?
In the second half, a completely different Jets defense came out of the locker room, holding Mendenhall to 26 yards. In fact, it almost seemed like the teams switched uniforms — the Jets outscored the Steelers 16-0, and outgained them 239-56. The Jets even rushed for 69 yards, showing they were indeed capable of running on the Steelers defense. Unfortunately for the Jets, the Steelers offense made the last two key plays for first downs — a second-and-twelve completion from Ben Roethlisberger to tight end Heath Miller, and a third-and-six completion to rookie receiver Antonio Brown — and a valiant Jets comeback was snuffed out.
Could the Jets come all the way back from a 24-0 hole and win the biggest comeback in conference championship history? If the Jets defense prevented one of those last two first downs, there was hope, even if with less than a minute left, no timeouts, and possibly the length of the field to go for a winning touchdown. Perhaps Rex Ryan should’ve opted for the onside kickoff when it was 24-19 and three minutes left. Perhaps he should’ve rolled the dice against a gassed Steelers defense instead of his own defense running on fumes.
When the clock ran down, the Steelers outlasted the Jets more than beat them. The Jets offense certainly had the Steelers defense on the ropes. But 24-0 proved too much of a hole to climb out of. The Steelers DID beat the Jets last night before halftime; the Steelers simply never got to put the final stake in Gang Green’s heart until the bitter end.
What does this tell us about Rex Ryan and his merry band of Jets? Well, just as they made off-season moves to shore up the defense for a playoff battle against Peyton Manning and Tom Brady, they’ll need to make a few more moves in order to handle running backs like Rashard Mendenhall better. They could use a real pass rushing defensive lineman. The secondary, outside of Darrelle Revis, needs to play more consistently. Offensively, they may need to tinker with the running game, diversify it beyond Shonn Greene and L’Danian Tomlinson (i.e., let’s see more Joe McKnight) and get more depth on the offensive line. Maybe they need to upgrade the kicking game.
Of course, perhaps it might help to win the AFC East and guarantee a home playoff game. If the Jets beat the Patriots back in week 13, rather than get blown out 45-3, would it have made a difference? The Patriots might still have won the division at 13-3. The Jets needed to be better than 11-5. They needed to avoid laying eggs at home against the Ravens (week 1), Packers (week 8) and Dolphins (week 14). If the Jets managed to score a single touchdown in each game, they could’ve been 14-2, even with getting their heads handed to them in Foxborough in week 13.
But the team is loaded with talent, especially at the skill positions, not to mention a steadily maturing franchise quarterback. Unlike championship-caliber teams with short shelf lives (e.g., the 1986-1989 Cleveland Browns), the Jets are built to be among the top 3-4 teams in the AFC for at least the next 4-5 years. And despite what some members of the fan base think, the Jets have a very solid and smart coaching staff. Would it be nice if Rex Ryan and company did less yakking? Sure, but it’s hard to argue with two straight AFC title game appearances, something no other Jets team has ever done — not under Weeb Ewbank, Walt Michaels, Joe Walton, Bill Parcells, or Herman Edwards, the only other head coaches to produce consecutive winning seasons.
Sure, it’s a little silly for Ryan in his post-game press conference to tell folks they “have no right” to criticize the Jets, but he was right on the money on one thing: they will be back next year to chase a Super Bowl, and the next year, and the next year, and for every year Rex Ryan serves as head coach. You have to give him and the team credit for setting their goal, talking about it ad nauseum, and never backing down. Just the way they came back from 24-0, kept fighting until the end, and kept the outcome in doubt until the Roethlisberger to Brown completion, you see a team driven, a team on a mission, a team thoroughly committed to not going away.
Do I guarantee we’ll see the Jets in Super Bowl XLVI, or XLVII or XLVIII? No, but I like their chances, better than I like Baltimore’s with Joe Flacco at quarterback, or San Diego’s with A.J. Smith as general manager, or the Colts’ with limited defensive depth. Are the Chiefs more than a one-year wonder? Are the Raiders really on the upswing? Are the Titans, Jaguars and Dolphins above mediocrity? Will we honestly hear from the Bengals, Browns, Bills, Broncos or Texans anytime soon?
The Patriots and Steelers are both built to remain a perpetual part of the discussion. The Patriots began this millennium winning three Super Bowl titles in a four-year period. The Steelers are in position to win their third in a five-year span. The Jets are also part of the discussion.
For Jets fans who can’t take the disappointment of two straight title game exits, I suggest you study your history, and not just the history of “Same old Jets.” Take a look at teams who had periods of falling short and see how things eventually paid off — the 1967-1977 Raiders, the 1966-1983 Cowboys, the 1971-1992 Redskins, even the 1990-1994 49ers or 1992-1998 Packers. Lots of teams had a few years of title game heartbreak before finally winning it all. The Jets don’t even crack the top-5 on the list for perseverance. So crawl out of your dark closets, look out at the sunny sky, and look forward to next season. I’ll guarantee you Rex Ryan already is.
Wednesday, January 12, 2011
It’s January, the month for football gluttony -- Sports Thoughts for January 13, 2011
Now that we’re finally done with the BCS National Championship Game, we can reflect back on the 2010 college football season and decide if we got our money’s worth. I, for one, feel more and more gypped with each season in this world of the BCS system. No matter what anyone says, Monday night’s Auburn-Oregon game was not worth the wait. Sometimes 22-19 is a nip-and-tuck thriller. Sometimes 22-19 is a memorable defensive battle. Sometimes 22-19 goes down as one for the ages. Sometimes 22-19 goes in my book as a big yawn. In a way, why should we be surprised by this performance from two rusty teams who hadn’t played in approximately six weeks. Throughout the game, I kept wondering three things:
(1) What possessed the Vegas odds-makers to maintain the over-under at 70 points for this game?
(2) Why are the Oregon players wearing yellow police tape on their ankles and feet?
(3) Do SEC teams ever lose in this stupid game?
Perhaps I’ve become too jaded and grouchy about football bowl games. I’m not really in favor of a college football playoff system, and I’m definitely not in favor of this current set-up. Yes, I’m your standard curmudgeon, pining for the old days when conference champions played in their corresponding fruit or foliage bowl, on their traditional television networks, and we didn’t have a zillion silly bowl games to placate mediocre football programs. Give me a New Years Day of the Cotton, Rose and Orange Bowls on CBS, ABC and NBC, where I can watch Big Ten and Pac Ten teams play where they naturally belong. When you set up a cockamamie system where TCU plays in Pasadena rather than Dallas, and we’re forced to sit in front of ESPN for nearly 100 hours of games that include such classics as the GoDaddy.com Bowl, you’re upsetting the natural order of things, by golly.
Last, if we’re going to maintain this silly system of 32 bowl games to reward more than a dozen 6-6 teams, bowl organizers need to find more appropriate corporate sponsors. Granted, this is from the perspective of a middle-aged man, but instead of such names like the Beef ‘O’ Brady’s St. Petersburg Bowl and the Little Caesar’s Pizza Bowl, let’s be more practical and offer a Ben-Gay Bowl or Alka-Seltzer Bowl. Tostitos BCS National Championship Bowl? Ha! By the time we get through 24 days of football games and junk food, we’d be better served by Gas-X. I know I would.
So folks are calling Andrew Luck stupid for deciding to return to Stanford for his junior year of football and complete his degree in architectural design? Sure... Sticking around to complete a degree, on the university’s dime — and a pretty prestigious university at that -- rather than toss away a sure thing for a potential pot of gold and a few years of getting his head kicked in as quarterback for the Carolina Panthers, is stupid. Please, please... Some football fans really crack me up.
And to all of those football fans eager to have Andrew Luck’s head examined... Did any of you once hear ESPN mention Cam Newton’s academic major at Auburn during the BCS Title Game? Yeah, I didn’t think so. Far be it from me to call out hypocrisy, but...
Are you all ready for this weekend’s NFL divisional playoffs? I know I am. If you do an archive search of my Twitter account, you will see that on January 5, I predicted to Warren Sapp of the NFL Network and Showtime Sports that the Seahawks, Jets, Chiefs and Packers would win their wild-card round games. That makes me 3-1 so far for the post-season (thanks for nothing, Kansas City). Folks call the Seahawks’ 41-36 win over the Saints an upset for the ages, but I don’t. New Orleans on the road is a bad bet for the playoffs; the Saints are now 0-4 in their history. Seattle in January is cold and damp, hardly the kind of climate the Saints enjoy in the Superdome, and let’s face it... The Saints defense hasn’t played like it did in 2009 all season long. You usually don’t have the good fortune of 45 takeaways and 7 touchdowns two seasons in a row. Ask the Arizona Cardinals defense how 2009 compared to their super bowl season of 2008. Having to play in Seattle with a team that wasn’t running on all cylinders was the perfect storm for the Saints, and the result was 41-36 and a long winter home.
Then again, the Saints didn’t just hand it over to the Seahawks. Pete Carroll’s team needed to play way above the level of their 7-9 regular season record. Now the Seahawks have hope and a puncher’s chance in Chicago on Sunday afternoon. In theory, the Bears should be able to handle the Seahawks at Soldier Field. In theory, the Seahawks should run out of pixie dust after the long flight to Chicago. But another eerie perfect storm may be waiting for the Bears. After all, the Seahawks came to Soldier Field and beat the Bears 23-20 back in week 6. Who knows which Jay Cutler will show up at quarterback for the Bears? Is he due for one of his ill-timed implosions? Perhaps he is, but something tells me the Bears should be able to overcome it. Can Matthew Hasselbeck duplicate his passing performance (22-35, 272 yards, 4 TDs)? The Bears defense isn’t necessarily the Monsters of the Midway. The Jets scored 34 against them. The Patriots scored 36. Sunday’s game could be the highest scoring of all four playoff matchups.
One more tidbit to think about... Has anyone noticed Seattle’s Brandon Stokley continues to be a big-game receiver year after year after year? No matter the season or which uniform he’s wearing, if there’s a game-changing touchdown catch involved, you somehow know Stokley is on the receiving end.
Who do I think the Bears will meet for the NFC title game next week? I picked the Green Bay Packers back in September, and I see no reason to backtrack on that prediction now. Of all the remaining teams in the NFC pool, the Packers have the most consistent (albeit cheating) defense and seem to be peaking at the right time. The Bears and Falcons never really faced adversity all season long. The Packers lost their running game in the first week of the season, held together through a tough November stretch, then convincingly beat the Giants, Bears and Eagles over the past three weeks. Add in the unexpected contributions of running back James Starks (123 yards rushing vs Philadelphia), and the Packers offense is more than quarterback Aaron Rodgers. Yes, the Falcons are 20-2 at home with Matt Ryan at quarterback, but their 20-17 last-minute win over the Packers November 28 told me more about how tough the Packers are than how dominant the Falcons are. Saturday night’s game will be close, but there’s a good reason why Vegas odds-makers have the Packers as the favorites.
My NFC predictions?
Packers 24, Falcons 20
Bears 31, Seahawks 26
This brings us to the AFC and the familiarity and contempt associated with divisional rivalries. Saturday afternoon gives us the rubber match between the Baltimore Ravens and the Pittsburgh Steelers. On October 3, the Ravens beat the Steelers in Pittsburgh, 17-14, and on December 5, the Steelers returned the favor in Baltimore, 13-10. It doesn’t take a genius to figure out that three points is usually the margin that separates these two teams, no matter where they play. In fact, six of the past seven games between these teams have been decided by four points or less.
Now that we know the margin of victory, which team wins at Heinz Field?
Consider this: Steelers quarterback Ben Roethlisberger is 8-2 in his career against the Ravens, missed their October 3 meeting due to league suspension, and played with a broken foot (and broke his nose) during the December 5 rematch. Somehow Big Ben finds a way to make the plays needed to win, while Ravens quarterback Joe Flacco finds a way to make a big mistake down the stretch and give the Steelers one extra chance.
Prediction?
Steelers 14, Ravens 12
This finally brings us to the last of this weekend’s playoff games, the Jets against the Patriots at Foxboro’s Gillette Stadium. Talk about two teams that absolutely dislike each other. Talk about a rivalry. Talk about TALK, and TALK, and TALK...
Yes, Gang Green turns up the volume each chance it gets, no matter the day, hour or how many microphones are present. Rex Ryan’s taking on Bill Belichick, Tom Brady, and perhaps the entire state of Massachusetts. The war of words goes back and forth between New York and Boston, some of the rhetoric a little too personal and over the line.
Allow me to summarize and simplify things for you:
Rex Ryan to Patriots coaches, players and fans: Pththththththth!!!!!!!!!!
Bill Belichick to Rex Ryan: Pththththththth!!!!!!!!!!
Rex Ryan to Tom Brady: Pththththththth!!!!!!!!!!
Tom Brady to Rex Ryan: Pththththththth!!!!!!!!!!
Antonio Cormartie to Tom Brady: $@#%&!
Tom Brady to Antonio Cromartie: Pththththththth!!!!!!!!!!
Now let’s discuss football...
Two bits of information are relevant to the discussion:
Week 2 (at Meadowlands): Jets, 28, Patriots 14
Week 13 (at Foxboro): Patriots 45, Jets 3
Of all the playoff games this weekend, the Jets and Patriots are the only matchup between teams where previous games weren’t close contests. Rex Ryan said, “we kicked their ass at home, and they kicked our ass there.” Bill Belichick said, “it’s now 2 of 3, like it should be.” Were the Jets really 14 points better than the Pats in week 2? Were the Pats really 42 points better than the Jets in week 13? Which performance is closest to the reality we’ll see on Sunday?
If we truly believe the week 13 massacre correctly reflects the talent difference between both teams, we should expect the Patriots to win by four touchdowns, but that’s not likely to happen. First, the Jets really weren’t as bad as they showed back in December, and the Pats really aren’t as dominant. Second, the Jets have pride at stake. Third, the law of averages has to catch up with the Patriots, doesn’t it?
Do I have any historical inspiration from a rivalry that’s knotted at 51-51-1 since 1960? Yes, the 1979 season. In week 2, the Jets traveled to Foxboro and lost 56-3. Think about it... 56-3. What took place December 5 wasn’t even the Jets worst loss against the Patriots! In case you’re wondering, the Jets have had their share of ugly losses in Foxboro: 55-21 (1978), 41-7 (1976), and 42-20 (1987).
Well, by week 15, the Jets were 6-8, playing out the string, and hosted an 8-6 Patriots team with slim playoff hopes. The final score at Shea Stadium? Jets 27, Patriots 26. I sat in old Shea that day, two rows behind the Patriots bench. As the final minutes ticked off, a sold-out crowd stood and serenaded the Patriots with “Good-bye playoffs” to the tune of “Goodnight Ladies.” Was that game one for the annals of professional football? Hardly. It was cold, dark, damp and windy that December afternoon, and the game was fairly sloppy, but that one-point Jet win served as some form of redemption 13 weeks after a 53-point debacle.
Why do I bring this game up? In the words of Jets wide receiver Braylon Edwards, “We always knew. ... It’s not even about revenge. That’s regular season. Who cares? Yeah, we got embarrassed, but that’s the regular season. This is the playoffs. ... If we beat them by one point, it’s a win. They can have the 42-point win. We just want a one-point win.”
Do I think the Jets can get their one-point win? Yes, I do. I also think the Jets can win by more, or the Patriots can win in another blow-out. Anything is possible with these two teams, but unlike the Vegas odds-makers, I believe the combination of rivalry, offensive and defensive schemes, pride (and ego), and a trip to the AFC title game will raise the level of play and give us perhaps the tightest and best battle of the weekend.
My prediction?
Jets 24, Patriots 23
Anything’s possible in the NFL playoffs. Hopefully all four games will provide us a great weekend of watching.
(1) What possessed the Vegas odds-makers to maintain the over-under at 70 points for this game?
(2) Why are the Oregon players wearing yellow police tape on their ankles and feet?
(3) Do SEC teams ever lose in this stupid game?
Perhaps I’ve become too jaded and grouchy about football bowl games. I’m not really in favor of a college football playoff system, and I’m definitely not in favor of this current set-up. Yes, I’m your standard curmudgeon, pining for the old days when conference champions played in their corresponding fruit or foliage bowl, on their traditional television networks, and we didn’t have a zillion silly bowl games to placate mediocre football programs. Give me a New Years Day of the Cotton, Rose and Orange Bowls on CBS, ABC and NBC, where I can watch Big Ten and Pac Ten teams play where they naturally belong. When you set up a cockamamie system where TCU plays in Pasadena rather than Dallas, and we’re forced to sit in front of ESPN for nearly 100 hours of games that include such classics as the GoDaddy.com Bowl, you’re upsetting the natural order of things, by golly.
Last, if we’re going to maintain this silly system of 32 bowl games to reward more than a dozen 6-6 teams, bowl organizers need to find more appropriate corporate sponsors. Granted, this is from the perspective of a middle-aged man, but instead of such names like the Beef ‘O’ Brady’s St. Petersburg Bowl and the Little Caesar’s Pizza Bowl, let’s be more practical and offer a Ben-Gay Bowl or Alka-Seltzer Bowl. Tostitos BCS National Championship Bowl? Ha! By the time we get through 24 days of football games and junk food, we’d be better served by Gas-X. I know I would.
So folks are calling Andrew Luck stupid for deciding to return to Stanford for his junior year of football and complete his degree in architectural design? Sure... Sticking around to complete a degree, on the university’s dime — and a pretty prestigious university at that -- rather than toss away a sure thing for a potential pot of gold and a few years of getting his head kicked in as quarterback for the Carolina Panthers, is stupid. Please, please... Some football fans really crack me up.
And to all of those football fans eager to have Andrew Luck’s head examined... Did any of you once hear ESPN mention Cam Newton’s academic major at Auburn during the BCS Title Game? Yeah, I didn’t think so. Far be it from me to call out hypocrisy, but...
Are you all ready for this weekend’s NFL divisional playoffs? I know I am. If you do an archive search of my Twitter account, you will see that on January 5, I predicted to Warren Sapp of the NFL Network and Showtime Sports that the Seahawks, Jets, Chiefs and Packers would win their wild-card round games. That makes me 3-1 so far for the post-season (thanks for nothing, Kansas City). Folks call the Seahawks’ 41-36 win over the Saints an upset for the ages, but I don’t. New Orleans on the road is a bad bet for the playoffs; the Saints are now 0-4 in their history. Seattle in January is cold and damp, hardly the kind of climate the Saints enjoy in the Superdome, and let’s face it... The Saints defense hasn’t played like it did in 2009 all season long. You usually don’t have the good fortune of 45 takeaways and 7 touchdowns two seasons in a row. Ask the Arizona Cardinals defense how 2009 compared to their super bowl season of 2008. Having to play in Seattle with a team that wasn’t running on all cylinders was the perfect storm for the Saints, and the result was 41-36 and a long winter home.
Then again, the Saints didn’t just hand it over to the Seahawks. Pete Carroll’s team needed to play way above the level of their 7-9 regular season record. Now the Seahawks have hope and a puncher’s chance in Chicago on Sunday afternoon. In theory, the Bears should be able to handle the Seahawks at Soldier Field. In theory, the Seahawks should run out of pixie dust after the long flight to Chicago. But another eerie perfect storm may be waiting for the Bears. After all, the Seahawks came to Soldier Field and beat the Bears 23-20 back in week 6. Who knows which Jay Cutler will show up at quarterback for the Bears? Is he due for one of his ill-timed implosions? Perhaps he is, but something tells me the Bears should be able to overcome it. Can Matthew Hasselbeck duplicate his passing performance (22-35, 272 yards, 4 TDs)? The Bears defense isn’t necessarily the Monsters of the Midway. The Jets scored 34 against them. The Patriots scored 36. Sunday’s game could be the highest scoring of all four playoff matchups.
One more tidbit to think about... Has anyone noticed Seattle’s Brandon Stokley continues to be a big-game receiver year after year after year? No matter the season or which uniform he’s wearing, if there’s a game-changing touchdown catch involved, you somehow know Stokley is on the receiving end.
Who do I think the Bears will meet for the NFC title game next week? I picked the Green Bay Packers back in September, and I see no reason to backtrack on that prediction now. Of all the remaining teams in the NFC pool, the Packers have the most consistent (albeit cheating) defense and seem to be peaking at the right time. The Bears and Falcons never really faced adversity all season long. The Packers lost their running game in the first week of the season, held together through a tough November stretch, then convincingly beat the Giants, Bears and Eagles over the past three weeks. Add in the unexpected contributions of running back James Starks (123 yards rushing vs Philadelphia), and the Packers offense is more than quarterback Aaron Rodgers. Yes, the Falcons are 20-2 at home with Matt Ryan at quarterback, but their 20-17 last-minute win over the Packers November 28 told me more about how tough the Packers are than how dominant the Falcons are. Saturday night’s game will be close, but there’s a good reason why Vegas odds-makers have the Packers as the favorites.
My NFC predictions?
Packers 24, Falcons 20
Bears 31, Seahawks 26
This brings us to the AFC and the familiarity and contempt associated with divisional rivalries. Saturday afternoon gives us the rubber match between the Baltimore Ravens and the Pittsburgh Steelers. On October 3, the Ravens beat the Steelers in Pittsburgh, 17-14, and on December 5, the Steelers returned the favor in Baltimore, 13-10. It doesn’t take a genius to figure out that three points is usually the margin that separates these two teams, no matter where they play. In fact, six of the past seven games between these teams have been decided by four points or less.
Now that we know the margin of victory, which team wins at Heinz Field?
Consider this: Steelers quarterback Ben Roethlisberger is 8-2 in his career against the Ravens, missed their October 3 meeting due to league suspension, and played with a broken foot (and broke his nose) during the December 5 rematch. Somehow Big Ben finds a way to make the plays needed to win, while Ravens quarterback Joe Flacco finds a way to make a big mistake down the stretch and give the Steelers one extra chance.
Prediction?
Steelers 14, Ravens 12
This finally brings us to the last of this weekend’s playoff games, the Jets against the Patriots at Foxboro’s Gillette Stadium. Talk about two teams that absolutely dislike each other. Talk about a rivalry. Talk about TALK, and TALK, and TALK...
Yes, Gang Green turns up the volume each chance it gets, no matter the day, hour or how many microphones are present. Rex Ryan’s taking on Bill Belichick, Tom Brady, and perhaps the entire state of Massachusetts. The war of words goes back and forth between New York and Boston, some of the rhetoric a little too personal and over the line.
Allow me to summarize and simplify things for you:
Rex Ryan to Patriots coaches, players and fans: Pththththththth!!!!!!!!!!
Bill Belichick to Rex Ryan: Pththththththth!!!!!!!!!!
Rex Ryan to Tom Brady: Pththththththth!!!!!!!!!!
Tom Brady to Rex Ryan: Pththththththth!!!!!!!!!!
Antonio Cormartie to Tom Brady: $@#%&!
Tom Brady to Antonio Cromartie: Pththththththth!!!!!!!!!!
Now let’s discuss football...
Two bits of information are relevant to the discussion:
Week 2 (at Meadowlands): Jets, 28, Patriots 14
Week 13 (at Foxboro): Patriots 45, Jets 3
Of all the playoff games this weekend, the Jets and Patriots are the only matchup between teams where previous games weren’t close contests. Rex Ryan said, “we kicked their ass at home, and they kicked our ass there.” Bill Belichick said, “it’s now 2 of 3, like it should be.” Were the Jets really 14 points better than the Pats in week 2? Were the Pats really 42 points better than the Jets in week 13? Which performance is closest to the reality we’ll see on Sunday?
If we truly believe the week 13 massacre correctly reflects the talent difference between both teams, we should expect the Patriots to win by four touchdowns, but that’s not likely to happen. First, the Jets really weren’t as bad as they showed back in December, and the Pats really aren’t as dominant. Second, the Jets have pride at stake. Third, the law of averages has to catch up with the Patriots, doesn’t it?
Do I have any historical inspiration from a rivalry that’s knotted at 51-51-1 since 1960? Yes, the 1979 season. In week 2, the Jets traveled to Foxboro and lost 56-3. Think about it... 56-3. What took place December 5 wasn’t even the Jets worst loss against the Patriots! In case you’re wondering, the Jets have had their share of ugly losses in Foxboro: 55-21 (1978), 41-7 (1976), and 42-20 (1987).
Well, by week 15, the Jets were 6-8, playing out the string, and hosted an 8-6 Patriots team with slim playoff hopes. The final score at Shea Stadium? Jets 27, Patriots 26. I sat in old Shea that day, two rows behind the Patriots bench. As the final minutes ticked off, a sold-out crowd stood and serenaded the Patriots with “Good-bye playoffs” to the tune of “Goodnight Ladies.” Was that game one for the annals of professional football? Hardly. It was cold, dark, damp and windy that December afternoon, and the game was fairly sloppy, but that one-point Jet win served as some form of redemption 13 weeks after a 53-point debacle.
Why do I bring this game up? In the words of Jets wide receiver Braylon Edwards, “We always knew. ... It’s not even about revenge. That’s regular season. Who cares? Yeah, we got embarrassed, but that’s the regular season. This is the playoffs. ... If we beat them by one point, it’s a win. They can have the 42-point win. We just want a one-point win.”
Do I think the Jets can get their one-point win? Yes, I do. I also think the Jets can win by more, or the Patriots can win in another blow-out. Anything is possible with these two teams, but unlike the Vegas odds-makers, I believe the combination of rivalry, offensive and defensive schemes, pride (and ego), and a trip to the AFC title game will raise the level of play and give us perhaps the tightest and best battle of the weekend.
My prediction?
Jets 24, Patriots 23
Anything’s possible in the NFL playoffs. Hopefully all four games will provide us a great weekend of watching.
Tuesday, December 28, 2010
Tuesday Night Football: Smart move, or not smartest move? -- Sports Thoughts for December 28, 2010
Tonight’s Vikings-Eagles game is brought to you by the triad, trinity and confluence of the NFL, the current NFL television contract, and Mother Nature. Well, it’s a shame common sense didn’t have a complete contribution... If common sense did, then perhaps we wouldn’t be talking about a Tuesday night game on NBC, and perhaps we would still be discussing how NBC and FOX Sports executives demonstrated maximum cooperation and creativity while adjusting game times and network coverage on the fly in the face of a major nor’easter snowstorm that dumped 20-30 inches over most of the Philadelphia to New York City corridor.
Were the NFL and the city of Philadelphia smart for not wanting more than 70,000 Eagles fans, many likely inebriated, potentially stranded at Lincoln Financial Field around 11:00pm Sunday night while a winter storm rendered roads impassable for motor vehicles? Yes, they were. Given the magnitude of the storm and weather forecasts, the safety of that many football fans needed to be considered relative to kickoff. However, postponing the game until tonight was not necessarily the best collective decision made, and possibly forcing the Eagles to play three games over the next twelve days (okay, so these will be the twelve post-nights of x-mas), albeit a big issue, wasn’t even the top issue.
Let’s revisit the timeline of events relative to how the decision for tonight’s game came to be. In case you forgot, December is Flex Scheduling time for the NFL, NBC, CBS, and FOX. The NFL goes to Flex Scheduling in order to spare NBC from presenting too may unattractive games during their primetime Sunday slot. In the original NFL schedule, Sunday night’s regular season finale was supposed to provide viewers the San Diego Chargers at the Cincinnati Bengals, two teams who made last year’s AFC playoffs but were both unlikely to make this year’s postseason field due to poor starts. The 8-6 Chargers started their customary 2-5, and still trailed the Kansas City Chiefs (9-5) by one game despite winning six of their past seven games. Thanks to a ten-game losing streak, the Bengals were 3-11. The only matchup feared worse than Chargers-Bengals could’ve been Lions-Dolphins, for also-ran’s sake.
Both NBC and the NFL feared an uncompetitive or “dog” game, and switched Chargers-Bengals with Vikings-Eagles, despite the 5-9 Vikings playing out the string against 10-4 Eagles. Everyone was right about an uncompetitive game, but the teams needed to be reversed; the Bengals won 34-20, and the game wasn’t as close as the score indicated.
Speaking of dogs...
On the other hand, the Eagles were fresh off their wild 38-31 comeback victory over the New York Giants at the Meadowlands, and Michael Vick games produce BIG television ratings compared to any other team the past 10 weeks of the season, including two weeks ago when the Eagles beat the Dallas Cowboys 30-27, in Texas. Tonight’s game will be the Eagles’ SIXTH time on primetime television most in the NFL, the maximum permitted. Not only do we get another Michael Vick doggie-gate story rehashed. While the Vikings are 5-9, they are considered a better draw and offer more fight than some 3-11 team, right? Oh... Those back-to-back snow-afflicted home losses to the Giants and Bears by a combined 61-17? Not to worry... The Vikings are still a much more entertaining story for television than the Bengals, albeit as a Greek tragedy or Shakespearian comedy.
Although not necessarily part of the original thought process for Sunday night, tonight now adds a miniscule but potential bonus: the NFL unwittingly gave Brett Favre, history’s all-time Hamlet, two extra days to recover from a concussion (assuming he passes a neurological test today... To cognate, or not to cognate. That is his question!) and perhaps add to the traveling circus of his presumed final season with another possible start at QB, perhaps his very last on primetime television.
So, everyone’s happy, right? Well, um... No!
Editorial note: For the record, I like a Tuesday night NFL game... Anything to bump The Biggest Loser off NBC’s primetime schedule is fine by me! If I want to see fat people work up a sweat on television, they should be wearing shoulder pads and helmets.
There are Eagles fans, notably former Philadelphia mayor and current Pennsylvania governor, Ed Rendell, upset that the Eagles are playing a game Tuesday night, perhaps throwing personal weekday plans into chaos, and let’s not forget the possibility looming for the Eagles playing three games within twelve days, if the Eagles fail to clinch a first-round playoff bye. Never mind the Eagles have clinched the NFC Eastern division crown without having to play, thanks to the Giants inspiring 45-17 loss in Green Bay to the Packers (more on this later).
Memo to the governor:
Eddie, bubella, could you kinda tone down the rhetoric about comparing American wusses to Chinese ass-kickers? Oh, and by the way, even I, a former chemistry and physics professor, can’t walk and do calculus at the same time (unless it’s a simple derivative or integral)!
There are football purists and commentators on several radio stations and sports television networks who think postponing a professional football game for 48 hours because of snow is ridiculous. Football in December is meant to be played in snow (ask the Vikings, who lost use of their domed stadium for the past two weeks), and if NBC and the NFL really cared about fan and vehicle safety after a game, they would’ve scheduled Lions-Dolphins from Miami, and banned alcohol sales. More than one commentator thought the NFL was incredulous for this level of concern.
Is anyone mentally fast-forwarding to February 2014 and Super Bowl XLVIII at the Meadowlands?
The real outrage should be directed at the NFL for not simply moving the Vikings-Eagles game back to 1:00pm EST Sunday, the original slot, and shifting one of the 4:00pm games to 8:30pm Sunday night, and trading TV announcer teams or swapping network coverage. Or, the NFL could’ve gotten away with switching the Vikings-Eagles game to 4:00pm while still swapping one of the 4:00pm games to 8:30pm.
The storm’s full brunt didn’t really hit Philadelphia until after 6:00pm, the impact was less than forecasted, and nowhere close to what the New York City area got. Local Eagles fans could’ve easily attended a 1:00pm game and gotten home safely during a 4:00-6:00pm window, or they could’ve attended a 4:00pm game and still gotten home safely during a 7:00-9:00pm window. Either way would’ve been more preferable than an 11:00pm-1:00am window, which will still be the case tonight. Although snowfall and unplowed roads won’t be an issue, fans still have to worry about black ice on roads after melted snow refreezes several hours after sunset.
The NFL “couldn’t” shift the Vikings-Eagles game to Monday, because ESPN got in a tizzy about having another primetime game opposite it, like the Giants-Vikings game two weeks ago. Why? Unlike Giants-Vikings, which was a regional FOX broadcast for the New York and Minnesota television markets, Vikings-Eagles was slotted to be a nationally broadcasted game. Because NBC “had” to preserve its primetime slot for week 16, the league decided to shift Vikings-Eagles to Tuesday night.
For all who thought the NFL, NBC and ESPN were approaching this situation from purely altruistic concerns... Ha! It all boiled down to MONEY and television ratings. The fans wanted the game on Sunday. The players wanted the game on Sunday. League and network executives wanted what was best for the bottom line. Nationalistic rhetoric aside, Governor Rendell argued that the NFL and NBC should have left the final decision to the Eagles and their local fans. The Vikings and Eagles could’ve played their game in an almost empty stadium, advising their fans to either take extreme caution driving to the stadium or simply stay home and watch it on television. The game was already sold out, so there was never a concern about a local television blackout.
It’s one thing to sit and criticize. It’s another to offer a plausible solution for future reference.
I happened to be in Philadelphia this past weekend, and was made aware of the pending storm around 7:00pm Saturday evening. By that hour, the changed weather news was well-known and continuously broadcasted since early Saturday afternoon. Whether the new storm projections were 100 percent accurate or not, decision-makers relative to the Vikings-Eagles game knew of a potential issue at least 30 hours prior to kickoff.
If I knew 30 hours ahead that a major storm could create travel chaos to and from a stadium, I would’ve immediately contacted the Vikings and Eagles organizations, as well as executives at NBC and FOX Sports, and ordered the game kickoff to be 1:00pm EST as a FOX regional game. I then would order FOX to pick one of its 1:00pm or 4:00pm games, where winter weather would not be an issue, and shift it to 8:30pm.
Why FOX Sports and not CBS? Because the Vikings are an NFC team, and FOX has exclusive rights to all Sunday afternoon games where NFC teams are the visitor, one would need to do an equivalent switch in terms of broadcast announcer teams.
FOX was broadcasting the following games on Sunday afternoon:
1:00pm EST: San Francisco 49ers at St. Louis Rams, Detroit Lions at Miami Dolphins, and Washington Redskins at Jacksonville Jaguars
4:00pm EST: Seattle Seahawks at Tampa Bay Buccaneers, and New York Giants at Green Bay Packers
Four of the five games had playoff implications, so none of these games would’ve been totally unattractive to viewers. Considering the Giants-Packers game was supposed to be FOX’s marquee matchup (little did anyone expect a 45-17 blowout), FOX could’ve swapped either 49ers-Rams or Redskins-Jaguars with NBC. Given NBC has the Rams at Seattle for next Sunday’s primetime finale, 49ers-Rams might’ve provided football fans a nice introduction to the Rams, 7-8 this year after a combined 6-42 for the 2007-2009 seasons.
Now that NBC, FOX, the Vikings, Eagles, 49ers and Rams all know about switched kickoff times, I would’ve offered the following options to NBC and FOX executives:
1. The NBC Sunday night broadcast team covers Vikings-Eagles for FOX, and the FOX team covers 49ers-Rams for NBC. Both networks already have their own equipment, personnel and announcing teams in place. Only a switch in network satellite feeds is needed.
2. NBC and FOX leave their equipment in place and switch personnel and announcers. In other words, the NBC folks fly Saturday evening from Philadelphia to St. Louis, and the FOX folks fly Saturday evening from St. Louis to Philadelphia. FOX people can use NBC equipment, and NBC people can use FOX equipment.
3. Only swap announcer teams between NBC and FOX, requiring the fewest number of people to transport between St. Louis and Philadelphia on short notice.
In an ideal world, and egos aside, I would hope NBC and FOX chose option number one, the least complicated option. If the NFL negotiates its television network contracts collectively with all of its affiliated networks (NBC, CBS, FOX, ESPN and NFLN), then the most cooperative and creative solution would’ve been for NBC and FOX to help each other out under unusual circumstances. Perhaps Vikings-Eagles and 49ers-Rams both turn out to be three hours of uninspiring football, but imagine the endless chatter among football fans and sports commentators about the day Al Michaels and Chris Collinsworth announced a game for FOX, and Kenny Albert, Moose Johnston and Tony Siragusa announced a game for NBC.
Were the NFL and the city of Philadelphia smart for not wanting more than 70,000 Eagles fans, many likely inebriated, potentially stranded at Lincoln Financial Field around 11:00pm Sunday night while a winter storm rendered roads impassable for motor vehicles? Yes, they were. Given the magnitude of the storm and weather forecasts, the safety of that many football fans needed to be considered relative to kickoff. However, postponing the game until tonight was not necessarily the best collective decision made, and possibly forcing the Eagles to play three games over the next twelve days (okay, so these will be the twelve post-nights of x-mas), albeit a big issue, wasn’t even the top issue.
Let’s revisit the timeline of events relative to how the decision for tonight’s game came to be. In case you forgot, December is Flex Scheduling time for the NFL, NBC, CBS, and FOX. The NFL goes to Flex Scheduling in order to spare NBC from presenting too may unattractive games during their primetime Sunday slot. In the original NFL schedule, Sunday night’s regular season finale was supposed to provide viewers the San Diego Chargers at the Cincinnati Bengals, two teams who made last year’s AFC playoffs but were both unlikely to make this year’s postseason field due to poor starts. The 8-6 Chargers started their customary 2-5, and still trailed the Kansas City Chiefs (9-5) by one game despite winning six of their past seven games. Thanks to a ten-game losing streak, the Bengals were 3-11. The only matchup feared worse than Chargers-Bengals could’ve been Lions-Dolphins, for also-ran’s sake.
Both NBC and the NFL feared an uncompetitive or “dog” game, and switched Chargers-Bengals with Vikings-Eagles, despite the 5-9 Vikings playing out the string against 10-4 Eagles. Everyone was right about an uncompetitive game, but the teams needed to be reversed; the Bengals won 34-20, and the game wasn’t as close as the score indicated.
Speaking of dogs...
On the other hand, the Eagles were fresh off their wild 38-31 comeback victory over the New York Giants at the Meadowlands, and Michael Vick games produce BIG television ratings compared to any other team the past 10 weeks of the season, including two weeks ago when the Eagles beat the Dallas Cowboys 30-27, in Texas. Tonight’s game will be the Eagles’ SIXTH time on primetime television most in the NFL, the maximum permitted. Not only do we get another Michael Vick doggie-gate story rehashed. While the Vikings are 5-9, they are considered a better draw and offer more fight than some 3-11 team, right? Oh... Those back-to-back snow-afflicted home losses to the Giants and Bears by a combined 61-17? Not to worry... The Vikings are still a much more entertaining story for television than the Bengals, albeit as a Greek tragedy or Shakespearian comedy.
Although not necessarily part of the original thought process for Sunday night, tonight now adds a miniscule but potential bonus: the NFL unwittingly gave Brett Favre, history’s all-time Hamlet, two extra days to recover from a concussion (assuming he passes a neurological test today... To cognate, or not to cognate. That is his question!) and perhaps add to the traveling circus of his presumed final season with another possible start at QB, perhaps his very last on primetime television.
So, everyone’s happy, right? Well, um... No!
Editorial note: For the record, I like a Tuesday night NFL game... Anything to bump The Biggest Loser off NBC’s primetime schedule is fine by me! If I want to see fat people work up a sweat on television, they should be wearing shoulder pads and helmets.
There are Eagles fans, notably former Philadelphia mayor and current Pennsylvania governor, Ed Rendell, upset that the Eagles are playing a game Tuesday night, perhaps throwing personal weekday plans into chaos, and let’s not forget the possibility looming for the Eagles playing three games within twelve days, if the Eagles fail to clinch a first-round playoff bye. Never mind the Eagles have clinched the NFC Eastern division crown without having to play, thanks to the Giants inspiring 45-17 loss in Green Bay to the Packers (more on this later).
Memo to the governor:
Eddie, bubella, could you kinda tone down the rhetoric about comparing American wusses to Chinese ass-kickers? Oh, and by the way, even I, a former chemistry and physics professor, can’t walk and do calculus at the same time (unless it’s a simple derivative or integral)!
There are football purists and commentators on several radio stations and sports television networks who think postponing a professional football game for 48 hours because of snow is ridiculous. Football in December is meant to be played in snow (ask the Vikings, who lost use of their domed stadium for the past two weeks), and if NBC and the NFL really cared about fan and vehicle safety after a game, they would’ve scheduled Lions-Dolphins from Miami, and banned alcohol sales. More than one commentator thought the NFL was incredulous for this level of concern.
Is anyone mentally fast-forwarding to February 2014 and Super Bowl XLVIII at the Meadowlands?
The real outrage should be directed at the NFL for not simply moving the Vikings-Eagles game back to 1:00pm EST Sunday, the original slot, and shifting one of the 4:00pm games to 8:30pm Sunday night, and trading TV announcer teams or swapping network coverage. Or, the NFL could’ve gotten away with switching the Vikings-Eagles game to 4:00pm while still swapping one of the 4:00pm games to 8:30pm.
The storm’s full brunt didn’t really hit Philadelphia until after 6:00pm, the impact was less than forecasted, and nowhere close to what the New York City area got. Local Eagles fans could’ve easily attended a 1:00pm game and gotten home safely during a 4:00-6:00pm window, or they could’ve attended a 4:00pm game and still gotten home safely during a 7:00-9:00pm window. Either way would’ve been more preferable than an 11:00pm-1:00am window, which will still be the case tonight. Although snowfall and unplowed roads won’t be an issue, fans still have to worry about black ice on roads after melted snow refreezes several hours after sunset.
The NFL “couldn’t” shift the Vikings-Eagles game to Monday, because ESPN got in a tizzy about having another primetime game opposite it, like the Giants-Vikings game two weeks ago. Why? Unlike Giants-Vikings, which was a regional FOX broadcast for the New York and Minnesota television markets, Vikings-Eagles was slotted to be a nationally broadcasted game. Because NBC “had” to preserve its primetime slot for week 16, the league decided to shift Vikings-Eagles to Tuesday night.
For all who thought the NFL, NBC and ESPN were approaching this situation from purely altruistic concerns... Ha! It all boiled down to MONEY and television ratings. The fans wanted the game on Sunday. The players wanted the game on Sunday. League and network executives wanted what was best for the bottom line. Nationalistic rhetoric aside, Governor Rendell argued that the NFL and NBC should have left the final decision to the Eagles and their local fans. The Vikings and Eagles could’ve played their game in an almost empty stadium, advising their fans to either take extreme caution driving to the stadium or simply stay home and watch it on television. The game was already sold out, so there was never a concern about a local television blackout.
It’s one thing to sit and criticize. It’s another to offer a plausible solution for future reference.
I happened to be in Philadelphia this past weekend, and was made aware of the pending storm around 7:00pm Saturday evening. By that hour, the changed weather news was well-known and continuously broadcasted since early Saturday afternoon. Whether the new storm projections were 100 percent accurate or not, decision-makers relative to the Vikings-Eagles game knew of a potential issue at least 30 hours prior to kickoff.
If I knew 30 hours ahead that a major storm could create travel chaos to and from a stadium, I would’ve immediately contacted the Vikings and Eagles organizations, as well as executives at NBC and FOX Sports, and ordered the game kickoff to be 1:00pm EST as a FOX regional game. I then would order FOX to pick one of its 1:00pm or 4:00pm games, where winter weather would not be an issue, and shift it to 8:30pm.
Why FOX Sports and not CBS? Because the Vikings are an NFC team, and FOX has exclusive rights to all Sunday afternoon games where NFC teams are the visitor, one would need to do an equivalent switch in terms of broadcast announcer teams.
FOX was broadcasting the following games on Sunday afternoon:
1:00pm EST: San Francisco 49ers at St. Louis Rams, Detroit Lions at Miami Dolphins, and Washington Redskins at Jacksonville Jaguars
4:00pm EST: Seattle Seahawks at Tampa Bay Buccaneers, and New York Giants at Green Bay Packers
Four of the five games had playoff implications, so none of these games would’ve been totally unattractive to viewers. Considering the Giants-Packers game was supposed to be FOX’s marquee matchup (little did anyone expect a 45-17 blowout), FOX could’ve swapped either 49ers-Rams or Redskins-Jaguars with NBC. Given NBC has the Rams at Seattle for next Sunday’s primetime finale, 49ers-Rams might’ve provided football fans a nice introduction to the Rams, 7-8 this year after a combined 6-42 for the 2007-2009 seasons.
Now that NBC, FOX, the Vikings, Eagles, 49ers and Rams all know about switched kickoff times, I would’ve offered the following options to NBC and FOX executives:
1. The NBC Sunday night broadcast team covers Vikings-Eagles for FOX, and the FOX team covers 49ers-Rams for NBC. Both networks already have their own equipment, personnel and announcing teams in place. Only a switch in network satellite feeds is needed.
2. NBC and FOX leave their equipment in place and switch personnel and announcers. In other words, the NBC folks fly Saturday evening from Philadelphia to St. Louis, and the FOX folks fly Saturday evening from St. Louis to Philadelphia. FOX people can use NBC equipment, and NBC people can use FOX equipment.
3. Only swap announcer teams between NBC and FOX, requiring the fewest number of people to transport between St. Louis and Philadelphia on short notice.
In an ideal world, and egos aside, I would hope NBC and FOX chose option number one, the least complicated option. If the NFL negotiates its television network contracts collectively with all of its affiliated networks (NBC, CBS, FOX, ESPN and NFLN), then the most cooperative and creative solution would’ve been for NBC and FOX to help each other out under unusual circumstances. Perhaps Vikings-Eagles and 49ers-Rams both turn out to be three hours of uninspiring football, but imagine the endless chatter among football fans and sports commentators about the day Al Michaels and Chris Collinsworth announced a game for FOX, and Kenny Albert, Moose Johnston and Tony Siragusa announced a game for NBC.
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