Okay, drum roll, please... For those of you anticipating the winner of Super Bowl XLV Sunday in Arlington, Texas... the Green Bay Packers will defeat the Pittsburgh Steelers, 10-7, in the lowest-scoring Super Bowl ever.
No way!
Way!
Why Green Bay, and why 10-7? Let me count the ways...
1. Defense: The Steelers and Packers ranked as the top two teams in the NFL in fewest points allowed this season. The Steelers finished first, allowing 232 points; the Packers finished second, allowing 240. In case you're scoring at home, that means if both defenses live up to their regular season statistics, we're looking at a 15-14 type of game. My point? It would be quite ambitious to expect these teams combining for 45 points (the over-under from Las Vegas), much less the 73 points these teams combined for last year in a 37-36 Steelers win.
This is the fourth time in Super Bowl history where the top two scoring defenses met up. The previous matchups were Super Bowl IV (Kansas City-Minnesota), Super Bowl VIII (Miami-Minnesota) and Super Bowl XVII (Miami-Washington). The final scores? 23-7, 24-7, 27-17 (that game included a kickoff return for touchdown). Don't expect a barn burner. If anything, one defense will live up to its billing and the other will eventually fall flat. However, I don't expect that to be the case.
2. Running Game: The Steelers have a decent one, but hardly overpowering. The Packers did without one for most of the season until James Starks broke out during the playoffs. Rashard Mendenhall demonstrated what a force he can be for the Steelers, but keep in mind that his most noteworthy performances were twice against the Jets and the season opener against Atlanta. Otherwise, the Steelers present enough of a running game to keep the chains moving and defenses honest. Don't expect either team to rush for a lot of yards, but definitely expect both teams to attempt 20-25 rushes in order to maintain some offensive balance. If either team is able to rush for an average of 3.0-3.5 yards per rush, that could be effective enough.
3. Offensive Line: Pittsburgh's has been banged up since before the season even started, when they lost right tackle Willie Colon to an Achilles injury. Now they're without Pro Bowl rookie center Maurkice Pouncey to an ankle injury suffered in the first half of the AFC championship game. Before Pouncey's injury, the Steelers ran roughshod over the Jets defense. Afterwards, the Steelers running game was held in check. Although Doug Legursky is quite capable of filling in, there will be a considerable drop-off in how effectively the Steelers run block, especially up the middle, where they ran more than half of their running plays against the Jets. While the Packers offensive line is relatively healthy, there is some reason for concern about 13-year veteran left tackle Chad Clifton holding up against the Steelers pass rushers. Clifton got dinged up during the NFC championship game win at Chicago.
4. Quarterbacks: Okay, Ben Roethlisberger and Aaron Rodgers are clearly among the best in the NFL this season, and if last year's 37-36 game was any indication, both should put on a similar show in Cowboys Stadium. But they won't. Both quarterbacks are nursing bumps and bruises after a long season. Rodgers has suffered two concussions and clearly wasn't playing like himself after a helmet-to-helmet shot from the Bears Julius Peppers two weeks ago. Roethlisberger's played with a broken foot and nose this season. Both quarterbacks are mobile and have strong arms, but both have also taken their share of hits and sacks. Going up against each other's defenses while both units are playing at their best during much of the post-season should make things more challenging than a year ago. Expect both quarterbacks to make plays, but don't expect any sustained consistency.
5. Defensive Backs: Both teams have solid defensive backfields, but each team has its own strength. The Steelers defensive backfield is led by strong safety and NFL Defensive Player of the Year, Troy Polamalu. Although Polamalu has been nursing an Achilles injury for the past several weeks, he's still a force when it comes to blitzes and stopping the run. In fact, the entire Steelers defensive backfield is better known for its run defense than pass coverage, even though the Steelers were fifth in the NFL with 21 pass interceptions this season.
On the other hand, the Packers defensive backfield is a tremendous collection of ball hawks, led by last year's Defensive Player of the Year, Charles Woodson. The Packers have intercepted six passes so far this post-season (adding to their league-leading 24 during the regular season), five combined by cornerbacks Tramon Williams and Sam Shields (the other, by the way, was by super-sized defensive lineman B.J. Raji). The Packers defensive backs are excellent in coverage and can suffocate a receiving corps. In many regards, the Packers ability to generate turnovers is very reminiscent of how the Saints defense operated all season long in 2009 en route to their Super Bowl XLIV title.
6. Pass Rush: Both teams have one. In fact, the Steelers and Packers ranked first and second in sacks with 48 and 47, respectively. Even though Roethlisberger and Rodgers do a good job of eluding the rush, both have taken their hits and all it takes is one to knock a quarterback off his game, or at least a little dizzy.
7. Linebackers: In a 3-4 defensive alignment, a solid linebacking unit is critical. The Steelers bring their own heavy hitters in James Farrior, LaMarr Woodley and James "I hit 'em the way football should be" Harrison. Add in solid depth with Lawrence Timmons and Larry Foote, and you have a unit that's dominant against the run and brutal at blitzing quarterbacks. If the Steelers have any weakness in this unit, it's age and speed to keep up with receivers in pass coverage.
For the Packers, their linebacking unit is young, fast, and hard hitting: Defensive Player of the Year runner-up Clay Matthews, A.J. Hawk, and Desmond Bishop. Matthews led all linebackers with 13.5 sacks during the regular season and 3.5 more during the post-season.
8. Defensive Coordinators: C'mon... are you kidding me?! Dick LeBeau (Steelers) and Dom Capers (Packers) are the godfathers of the zone blitz. While both incorporate their own wrinkles and twists, it's still the same dominant scheme first developed almost 40 years ago by the late Bud Carson, the Steelers defensive guru during their dynasty years of the 1970s.
9. Field Position: Laugh if you must, but neither team necessarily has the best kickoff coverage. It's quite possible both teams could be starting offensive drives in excellent field position. However, one factor many may overlook is Packers punter, Tim Masthay. Masthay has been excellent all post-season with directional punting. The Steelers have already demonstrated a couple of times this season their difficulties with starting drives in the shadow of their end zone (see week 15 and AFC Championship Game safeties allowed to the Jets). If Masthay can pin the Steelers deep on punts, that puts extra pressure on the Steelers offense and a patchwork offensive line, especially with the center-quarterback exchange.
10. Intangibles: Yes, both teams come into the Super Bowl on a roll, but neither team is necessarily operating on all cylinders. The NFL season is a war of attrition, and even the ideal environment of a domed stadium doesn't guarantee a classic offensive show. Players have played the past few weeks in inclement weather, have had to deal with unexpected bad weather in the Dallas area all week as they balance game preparation with the excitement and circus of Super Bowl week. As much as he tries to compartmentalize the events of his season, one has to imagine the media attention Ben Roethlisberger has repeated dealt with might affect his emotions and focus. Even Aaron Rodger has had to deal with Brett Favre questions, even though Favre hasn't quarterbacked the Packers since the 2007 season.
Even if this is "just a football game", it's still THE football game of the year, the most-watched television event of the year, with all kinds of added fluff. NFL teams are used to games kicking off at 1:00pm, 4;15pm or 8:30pm. Sure, once you make it to the Super Bowl, you're already used to primetime kickoffs and extra television cameras, but let's not overlook the potential impact of an extra-long pre-game introduction and hoopla, not to mention an extra-long halftime show. Any number of seemingly benign things could create a focus-breaking distraction. Both teams are clearly the best in their conferences and deserving of this matchup, but one has to take big-game experience into account, normalcy of routine by the coaching staff, as well as players being, or not being, at their peak.
But the bottom line is that when two top defensive teams meet up, the logical expectation is for both defenses to live up to their billing. While both offenses are impressive, neither should have sustained success. I expect a few big plays. In fact, I'd expect those big plays might be the only way either offense can consistently move the ball into scoring position. I don't think either team will be able to consistently drive the length of the field on each other, so I expect few touchdowns to be scored. I also expect we'll see a few mistakes in terms of short-circuited drives and turnovers. I'm also not completely sold on either team's field goal kickers outside the 40 yard line, so scoring will likely be at a premium.
However, I have a little more confidence in Packers placekicker Mason Crosby than Steelers placekicker Shaun Suisham, and this may indeed be the ultimate edge in what should be a very low scoring and close game.
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