As we all know, Labor Day is the last traditional holiday point of the summer where baseball fans love to see where their teams are at and how the pennant races are shaping up for the big finish. With approximately 30 games to go, this is when folks are either full of anticipation or resigned to wait until next year. Why? Because there’s been a long-time axiom that says teams in first place at labor Day usually end up winning their divisional crown. Then again, we tend to say this for the July 31st trading deadline, the All-Star break, the 4th of July, Mother’s Day... But as the ‘64 Phillies, ‘95 Angels, and the ‘07 and ‘08 Mets have taught us, nothing’s ever a sure deal in September.
Ha, ha, ha... Give me re-write and let’s see how smart I was back on July 4th...
As you might remember, I’ve been harping all season that the route towards winning your division is to basically beat up on everyone else in your division. If you have the best intradivisional record, odds are good you’ll be in first place. So... Let’s see how my theory’s holding up, and let’s see how my July 4th predictions did...
AL East:
Do I know how to handicap a division or what?! Back in July I said the Rays and Yankees would battle it out in a tight race for first place and the wild card , and both would likely be the beast of the east in terms of intradivisional winning percentage. I said the Red Sox would eventually drop back because of health and depth issues, and the Blue Jays would slowly fade due to not being ready yet for the heat of a pennant race (ah, but there’s always next year, my fellow Toronto fans).
And what do you know? Here we are at Labor Day weekend, and guess who’s at the top of the division? Yep, the Rays and Yankees, both enjoying the best records in MLB, and the top records against divisional opponents. The Yankees are slightly better at home; the Rays are slightly better on the road. Should I change my prediction of the Rays sneaking past the Yankees are the divisional winner? Nope. Despite the Rays having two starting pitchers on the 15-day DL earlier in the month, the Yankees have more than their share of pitching woes, age issues, and a roster full of creaky players playing on fumes. Who knows what kind of pitching rotation manager Joe Girardi will have by October, but a three-man rotation of C.C. Sabathia, A.J. Burnett, and Phil Hughes or Andy Pettitte isn’t going to strike fear in any of the other AL playoff teams. Years ago, the then-Boston Braves had the slogan “Spahn and Sain, and pray for rain” in order to overcome their thin pitching staff. In the Yankees’ case, the tune may be “C.C. and, and... and please score lots of runs.” On the other hand, the Rays still have a potentially solid three-man rotation of David Price, Matt Garza, and James Shields or Jeff Niemann.
Going into this weekend, the Yankees play 13 of their remaining 28 games at home. On the other hand, 17 of the Rays’ remaining 23 games are on the road. In terms of schedule, the last month favors the Rays. They play the Yankees seven more times (September 13-15 in Tampa, September 20-23 in New York), and the Rays are 6-5 versus the Yankees so far. On the other hand, the Yankees still have 6 games left against the Red Sox (September 24-26 in New York, October 1-3 in Boston), whom they are 7-5 against. Meanwhile, the Rays are in Boston for three remaining games September 6-8, and are already 9-5 against the Red Sox this season.
So, as the month of September grinds along, I think the edge still goes to Tampa Bay to win the division while the Yankees outlast Boston for the wild card. The Rays will win on the strength of their pitching. The Yankees will try to outscore what their starting rotation surrenders.
AL Central:
As I said back in late-June, the Twins were likely the team to survive what could be a tough three-horse race over the White Sox and Tigers, and it appears I’m Carnac once again. Injuries and some inconsistency have hit all three teams this season, but Detroit eventually took the brunt of it. Once they lost closer Joel Zumaya to a blown out elbow, they simply didn’t have the bullpen-by-committee reserves to compensate like Minnesota did when they lost Joe Nathan during spring training to Tommy John surgery. As for the White Sox, they’ve been streaky in the positive and negative directions all season long, and all you have to do is listen to the tone of manager Ozzie Guillen’s rants to gauge how the winds blow on Chicago’s south side. Having Manny Ramirez in the batting order in September is a crapshoot, unlikely to help the White Sox make a final charge past the Twins.
Beginning this weekend, the Twins play 16 of their remaining 28 games at home, and the White Sox play 16 of their remaining 29 games at home. Chicago’s last stand may very well September 14-16, when they host the Twins for their final three head-to-head games. The Twins have beaten the White Sox 10 times in 15 meetings so far.
But as I said in July, the Twins likely were the best team among the three contenders, and that would be the difference in this divisional race. If you look at intradivisional records, the Twins indeed hold the best record by a wide margin, and this is why they’re in first place and will likely hang on for the divisional crown.
AL West:
This divisional race has been a surprising runaway for the Texas Rangers, and unless things go absolutely wrong (see ‘07 and ‘08 Mets), there’s no reason why they shouldn’t hold off the Angels and A’s to win their first divisional crown since 1999. How have the Rangers done it? It hasn’t necessarily been due to beating up on everyone else in the division, even though their 24-16 record against their AL West rivals is good (The Angels are 24-17 against AL West teams). No one in the division has a winning road record, although the Rangers are the least worst in the division. The Rangers do have the best home record within the division. Add up their least worst road record, best home record, best intradivisional record, a prolonged slump by the Angels and too late a wake-up by the A’s, and this is how the Rangers are in first place by the largest margin in all six divisional races.
AL Playoff teams:
Back in July I predicted the following:
AL East — Tampa Bay
AL Central — Minnesota
AL West — Texas
Wild card — Yankees
My predictions are still the same going into Labor Day weekend.
ALDS & ALCS:
Okay, I’m going out on a limb and saying the best divisional series will be between Tampa Bay and Minnesota, assuming the Rays win the AL East with the best record and Texas ends up with a better record than the Twins. Tampa Bay and Minnesota clearly have the best pitching staffs in terms of youth, health, and depth. The wheels are slowly coming off the Yankees pitching staff, and the Rangers pitching staff may be too inconsistent, especially Cliff Lee as the presumed ace since coming over from Seattle at mid-season. Whichever team comes from the Rays-Twins series will likely win the AL pennant over the Yankees, who can clearly outslug the Rangers in any series, regardless of playing in New York or Arlington.
On the other hand, the postseason would be most fun if the Twins ended up with a better record than the Rangers. This would match the Rangers against the Rays and the Twins against the Yankees. If the Twins have home field advantage in a short series with the Yankees, I do believe this is the year Ron Gardenhire’s team can finally get over the first-round hump and slay the Bronx Bombers. This would send the Twins against the Rays in what could be as exciting a seven-game championship series as we saw in 2008 when the Rays held off the Red Sox. I have a soft spot for both the Rays and Twins, but I give the edge to Tampa Bay because of their incredible starting rotation.
NL West:
In research, there are always confounding variables that interfere with the validity of a theory. In this division we have the Los Angeles Dodgers. Back in July I said the Dodgers were going to win this division on the basis of their dominance within the division. Boy, was I wrong, wrong wrong... While the Dodgers still have the best intradivisional record (30-18), they can’t seem to beat anyone else outside the division, or on the road, with any consistency. When the Dodgers trade for catcher Rod Barajas from the Mets as a possible savior in the batting order, while unloading Manny Ramirez to the White Sox, you know you’re grasping at straws, not to mention all the teams in front of you in the divisional race. What a sad way for Joe Torre’s tenure to likely end in Los Angeles. The Dodgers have been a soap opera most of the season, and now with Frank and Jamie McCourt slugging it out in divorce court, September doesn’t look to be calm or pleasant.
If the Dodgers have a last gasp at overtaking three teams and winning their third straight divisional crown they’ll need to overcome their own schizophrenia. The Dodgers play the San Diego Padres, San Francisco Giants, Colorado Rockies and Arizona Diamondbacks 24 of their final 28 games. The Dodgers are a combined 30-18 against these teams. Unfortunately, 15 games are on the road and only nine are at Chez Ravine, where the Dodgers enjoy a 40-29 record. The Dodgers are 28-37 on the road.
I was about to join all the other baseball geniuses with egg on their faces for predicting and waiting for the Padres to collapse, but a funny thing happened on the way to running away with the division. A week ago all I would want to talk about was the little engine that could, and would, and keep going! As I discussed back in July, the Padres are doing it with pitching, pitching, and pitching. On paper one would think team with the NL’s best record has been surviving with smoke and mirrors, but they actually have the NL’s best record since mid-season of 2009, second only to the Yankees. Suddenly, the Padres aren’t still winning games 1-0, 2-1, and 3-2. In fact, they’ve lost seven straight, and their one-healthy lead has dwindled to three games. All those close games best prepares a team for the tightness of postseason games, especially with a lights-out closer in Heath Bell. The flip side, however, is that all those close low-scoring games might eventually take their toll, and this may be case for the Padres. Suddenly the starting rotation has sprung leaks, but the bats are unable to overcome this. Could this be the beginning of the end for the Padres?
Looking at their schedule, this upcoming nine-game home stand (September 3-12) against the Rockies (4-8 record against), Dodgers (5-7) and Giants (9-2) may tell us once and for all if the Padres can hang on. After the home stand they go on the road September 13-23 to play three games in Colorado, four in St. Louis (3-3 record against), and three in Los Angeles. The Padres then play their final home stand September 24-30: three games against Cincinnati (2-1) and four against the Cubs (4-0). Then the Padres close out the season with three games in San Francisco (October 1-3).
As for the Giants, they will play 12 games at home (including their final six) and 16 on the road. The Giants don’t play as well as the Padres do on the road, and they’re a combined 27-27 record against their final opponents, the Diamondbacks, Cubs, Rockies, Dodgers, Brewers and Padres. The Padres are a combined 27-21 against their final opponents.
If the Rockies are seeking to make yet another late-September push, they benefit from playing 16 of their final 29 games at home — a 10-game home stand (September 6-15) against Cincinnati (four games), Arizona (three) and San Diego (three), then a six-game home stand September 24-29 with three each against the Giants and Dodgers. Unfortunately, the Rockies are a combined 28-26 against these teams, and 26 of their remaining 29 games will be against them.
If the Padres can regain their equilibrium during this upcoming home stand, odds are good they should end up winning the division. If a team is going to slump, better it be before September really gets underway and you still lead everyone else. If the Padres do collapse, it’s anyone’s guess as to who will take over. San Francisco has the smallest margin to overcome, but consistency hasn’t been their strong suit. However, given the number of road games the Giants, Rockies and Dodgers have to play from this point out, the Giants may be the best pick because they’re the least lousy away from their home park.
NL Central:
I asked this question back in July, and I’ll ask it again: How are the Cincinnati Reds in first place? As was the case two months ago, I’m somewhat at a loss for why the Reds remain in first place by a growing margin over St. Louis (now eight games), but a pattern is becoming clearer with each day crossed off the season calendar... Despite having a shaky pitching staff and being unable to beat quality opponents, including the Cardinals, the Reds do have the division’s best record against divisional rivals (they’ve feasted on the Cubs, Pirates, Brewers and Astros), they do well at home and nearly as well on the road (virtually tied with San Diego for NL’s best record).
As for the Cardinals, since the All-Star break, they can’t beat up on weaker teams (10-19), struggle within the division (10-13, but 3-0 versus Cincinnati), and struggle on the road (8-13).
Worse, since the Cardinals swept the Reds in Cincinnati August 9-11, they’re 5-13, including 3-12 against the Cubs, Brewers, Pirates, Nationals and Astros (swept in Houston August 30-September 1).
Going into the home stretch, the Cardinals have 14 games left at home (including their final seven) and 13 on the road, and only three left with the Reds this weekend in St. Louis. On the other hand, after this weekend series in St. Louis, the Reds will have 13 games left each at home (including their final six) and on the road; 19 of their remaining 26 games would be against the Pirates, Astros, Brewers, and Diamondbacks, teams the Reds are already 23-8 against so far this season. Of the remaining 24 games after this weekend, the Cardinals play 15 games against the Cubs, Brewers and Pirates, teams they’re only 16-14 against so far this season.
Logic once told me the Cardinals should be primed to take over this division and hold off the Reds. The Cardinals have better pitching and a more complete batting order. The Cardinals are 10-5 so far against the Reds. But the Cardinals have suffered from inconsistency for most of the last three months and have yet to pull themselves out of neutral, while the Reds have the NL’s second-best record. If the Cardinals cannot sweep these three games against the Reds, they may have to face reality and focus on the wild card race and Albert Pujols’ battle with Cincinnati’s Joey Votto for the NL’s first Triple Crown since Joe (“Ducky”) Medwick won titles for batting average, home runs and RBIs in 1937.
I hate to say a three-game Labor Day series could decide a divisional title, but after Labor Day, the Reds have the favorable schedule, and the NL’s lousier teams could represent doom for Tony LaRussa’s Cardinals. Therefore, unless St. Louis sweeps this weekend’s series and creates hope, I have to give the edge and momentum to Dusty Baker’s young and feisty Reds.
NL East:
Yes, I admit I’m a card-carrying Mets fan who bleeds blue and orange since the days of Marv Throneberry, Richie Ashburn, and Ed Kranepool. Yes, I was enticed by their 90-win pace back in June. Yes, I expected the Atlanta Braves to fade just enough for the Mets to eke out the divisional title. Yes, I was wrong, wrong, wrong...
But I was correct on several points back in early July. For example, this division is still the most difficult to get a handle on. For example, the Mets, Braves and Phillies all play wonderfully at home and horribly on the road. For example, the team with the best intradivisional record is the Florida Marlins, and they are 19-19 so far this season against the Mets, Braves and Phillies. For example, starting with this weekend, the Marlins still have six games each against the Braves and Phillies, enough to wreck havoc on the divisional race and play their annual spoiler role, especially if Josh Johnson pitches in each of those remaining four series.
Have the Braves faded a bit since the All-Star break? Maybe during the last half of July (7-8), but they’re 19-11 since July 31st and are tied with the Reds for the NL’s best overall record, despite struggling with injuries. The defending NL champs, the Phillies, have also struggled with injuries and inconsistency, but are 28-18 since the All-Star Break, 19-10 since July 31st. So far, the Braves are 7-5 against the Phillies this season and lead the division by three games.
What makes things interesting is the Braves and Phillies play three games in Philadelphia September 20-22, and three more in Atlanta the final weekend of the regular season, October 1-3. From this point on, the Phillies will play 16 games at home and 12 on the road (including the final six). The Braves will play 13 games at home (including their final six) and 15 on the road. The schedule favors the Phillies, but the Braves may have the edge when both teams meet head-to-head. Again, unless you’re the Mets, it’s always good to lead the division going into September. Given how I viewed this division a toss-up between the Mets and Braves back in July, I’m inclined to view this division a toss-up going into the final two weeks of the season. However, if the Phillies fail to close the gap before September 20th, their three-game series at home could be the make-or-break point.
Given the Phillies recent history of September runs, logic might tell me they’re due to overtake the Braves and steal their fourth straight divisional crown. However, the Braves have a slightly healthier pitching staff and more reliable closer, not to mention a three-game lead going into the final month, so I can still see the Braves holding on for dear life.
NL Wild card:
Unlike the American League, there’s no guarantee the NL wild card will go to whichever team doesn’t win the east. The Phillies remain in a tight battle with St. Louis and San Francisco, and if September gets wild, perhaps the Marlins, Colorado Rockies, Dodgers, and Mets. But unless the Marlins, Rockies, Dodgers, or Mets catch lightning in a bottle, it seems the wild card will come down to the Phillies, Cardinals and Giants. Now the question remains how to handicap the race...
Heading into the final month, the Phillies will play 16 games at home and 12 on the road (including their final six). The Cardinals have 14 games left at home (including their final seven) and 13 on the road. The Giants will play 12 games at home (including their final six) and 16 on the road. Since none of these teams play particularly well on the road, the final month could favor the Phillies and Cardinals more than the Giants.
Consider each team’s opponents (including this weekend):
The Phillies play the Braves, Marlins, Brewers, Mets and Nationals (combined 28-22 record against).
The Cardinals play the Braves, Cubs, Reds, Rockies, Brewers, Pirates and Padres (combined 31-24 record against).
The Giants play the Diamondbacks, Cubs, Rockies, Dodgers, Brewers and Padres (combined 27-27 record against).
Based on remaining opponents, the slight edge may go to the Cardinals, but keep in mind they’re only 16-14 against the Cubs, Brewers and Pirates, teams they will play for 15 of their remaining 24 games after this weekend’s series with the Reds. Excluding the Braves, the Phillies are 23-15 against their remaining opponents, providing them a very favorable schedule for 22 of their remaining 28 games. The Giants still have 7 more games against the Padres (including four games in San Diego September 9-12). They’re 2-9 so far against the Padres, clearly the kiss of death, especially playing them for their final three games in San Francisco October 1-3.
The Braves and Brewers could both affect the race between Philadelphia and St. Louis. The Braves play Philadelphia 6 times, and are 7-5 against them so far. The Braves host the Cardinals September 9-12, but were swept in St. Louis April 26-29. A lot has changed since those four games, but losing by a combined 25-11 score raises questions of how the Braves’ pitching might match up against St. Louis’ hitters. The Cardinals and Brewers have split their first 12 games so far, but their final series (September 6-8) will be in Milwaukee. On the other hand, the Phillies host the Brewers this weekend and swept them May 14-16 in Milwaukee by a combined score of 23-13.
NL Playoff teams:
Back in July I predicted the following:
NL East — Mets
NL Central — St. Louis
NL West — Los Angeles Dodgers
Wild card — Atlanta
My predictions going into Labor Day weekend have changed.
NL East — Atlanta
NL Central — Cincinnati
NL West — San Diego
Wild card — Philadelphia
NLDS & NLCS:
Unless things change dramatically, the Reds could have the NL’s best record and host the Phillies in an intriguing first-round matchup of inconsistent pitching versus inconsistent but explosive hitting. The Phillies have done well against the Reds so far this season (5-2), but the question will be whether the Phillies can consistently score against the Reds’ young and maturing pitchers. Of course, there’s also the question of how will the Reds’ bats fare against the Phillies’ battered but veteran pitching staff. It wouldn’t be a surprise if the Phillies eke past the Reds in five high-scoring games. On the other hand, home field advantage will likely determine which team survives five low-scoring games between Atlanta and San Diego.
Going out on a limb again (it’s not like my predictions earn any commissions...), I think we could be seeing a Phillies-Padres match-up in the championship series. Then the question remains as to whether experience beats youth, or vice versa. The Phillies playing in the past two World Series was hardly a fluke. This is a team that relies on guts, timely hitting, scoring bursts, and enough decent pitching to get the job done. If the Phillies make it into the post-season, they may be hungry enough and savvy enough to outlast the Padres, Reds or Braves.
World Series:
As much as folks may not like it, I have a feeling this year could be a repeat of 2008’s match-up between the Phillies and Rays. However, this time I think the Rays have enough to beat the Phillies and their pitching rotation.
No comments:
Post a Comment