Tim Tebow won his first playoff game for the Broncos and Peyton Manning didn’t.
Ah yes... a divisional playoff game for the ages, the fourth-longest in NFL history, 76 minutes and 42 seconds, played in single-digit wind chill weather, where both teams combined for 73 points, 51 first downs, 877 yards of total offense, 18 accepted penalties, six touchdown scoring plays of 30 yards or more, and only four turnovers... was somehow all about Tim Tebow no longer being the starting quarterback of the Denver Broncos, replaced by some undeserving schmoe named Peyton Manning.
Shame on you all... from Tim Tebow’s brother Peter, who tweeted “am I the only one in Denver who’s happy right now?” to dimwits on ESPN who dared to ask if the Broncos could’ve won if Tebow was quarterback, to all the local sportscasters and newspaper writers in New York (see above back page from January 13th New York Daily News) who felt it necessary to compare the Tebow-led Broncos of 2011 with the Manning-led Broncos of 2012. First, there’s simply no comparison. Second, by invoking Tebow’s name regarding a game he had absolutely nothing to do with, all of these foolish people clearly demonstrate how little they respect professional football and NFL history and how hell-bent they are to create controversies where none should exist. This isn’t being a provocateur. It’s being a blockhead in love with the sound of your own voice and inane ideas.
Let me spare all those fools the time and trouble... Tim Tebow’s role with the 2011 Broncos is completely irrelevant to the 2012 Broncos. Period. Exclamation point. Done. The Broncos ownership, front office and coaching staff no longer considers Tebow relevant. Why is anyone wasting time on this non-story?
If any remote connection exists between last year’s 29-23 overtime wild card playoff win over the Pittsburgh Steelers and Saturday evening’s double overtime loss, it lies with the old adage: what goes around, comes around. If Tebowphiles truly watched the Ravens-Broncos game, they would’ve seen the Ravens give the Broncos a taste of their own medicine: taking full advantage of a dysfunctional defensive secondary.
Yes... The Broncos beat the Steelers last year because the Steelers secondary was depleted by injuries and free safety Ryan Clark’s inability to play in Denver’s high altitude due to Sickle Cell trait. The Steelers secondary was fraught with communication problems and coverage lapses and the Broncos took advantage of those issues to the tune of 316 yards passing on just ten completions, the final one being an 80-yard touchdown pass from Tebow to receiver Demaryius Thomas (note: a wide-open Thomas ran the final 65 yards after catching a medium-range Tebow pass).
This time around, it was the Broncos defensive secondary that got repeatedly burned for large pass plays.
Before we focus on Saturday’s game, let’s take one final look back at the 2011 “Tebow victory.” Two teams battled into overtime, the game tied up after a late big-play touchdown pass by the VISITING team (Ben Roethlisberger to Jericho Cotchery, 31 yards) after the Broncos failed to hold their lead (the Broncos were ahead 20-6 at halftime, and led 23-13 early in the fourth quarter), a game featuring 847 total yards in combined offense, lots of big plays and few penalties or turnovers.
Do we see enough similarity to bridge forward to Saturday and rule out the “Tebow factor”? Both games took place in Denver (although last year’s wild-card game was in more mild weather conditions) pitting two teams with decent defenses, and yet neither game necessarily gave either defense bragging rights. Both games ended up being very high scoring relative to expectations. Both games ended up having a lot of offensive yardage. Both games went into overtime because the Broncos defense couldn’t protect a lead in the final minutes of regulation.
Sometimes a defense simply needs to bend but don’t break. It didn’t work for the Broncos defensive secondary Saturday evening. It bent and broke. Why? Denver’s defensive backs failed to cover Baltimore’s receivers just as poorly as Pittsburgh’s defensive backs failed last year. There comes a point where defensive backs can’t worry about whether they should be in man or zone coverage. The objective must be keeping pass receivers out of the end zone and offensive touchdowns off the scoreboard. The Steelers failed last year as Tebow only completed 10 of 21 passes. The Broncos failed Saturday as Joe Flacco completing 18 of 34. Sometimes it doesn’t require more than 50 percent passing to defeat a vulnerable secondary.
Did Peyton Manning have a vintage game? No, and he never really needed to. The Ravens defense kept Manning’s receivers covered tight all game long and Manning still managed to complete 28 of 43 passes for 290 yards. Manning took what the Ravens defense gave him and achieved moderate-range gains en route to three touchdown passes. Not bad for a 37-year-old quarterback completing his first full season after four neck surgeries and playing in weather he normally doesn’t fare well in. Add in punt and kickoff returns for touchdowns by Trindon Holliday and there was no reason why 35 points shouldn’t have held up to win the game. Yes, the Broncos offense played sloppy at times, and inopportune penalties (mostly attributable to poor officiating) combined with Manning’s turnovers didn’t help, but the Broncos defense should not have given up 324 yards passing and touchdown passes from Flacco of 32, 59 and 70 yards — especially the 70-yard one, on third and three, with 31 seconds left in regulation and the Ravens not having any timeouts left.
That’s how the Broncos “lost” Saturday’s game... And there’s nothing Tim Tebow could’ve done to change that. Never wind about Manning’s overtime interception. Never mind about Fox’s decision to have Manning take a knee at the Denver 20 and run out the final 31 seconds with two timeouts in hand.
For all the post-mortem wailing and whining by fans and pundits, let’s go to the critical moments — the actual genesis — where Denver lost a playoff game they should’ve won. With 3:16 left in the fourth quarter, Flacco threw an incomplete pass on fourth down and five yards to go, and the Ravens turned the ball over on downs to the Broncos (leading 35-28) at the Denver 31-yard-line. Four Denver running plays later, the Broncos faced third and seven from their 47 at the two-minute warning. Baltimore was out of time outs and Denver was going into a 5-10 mile-per-hour wind. The Broncos called a running play off right guard. Ronnie Hillman gained nothing. Now it was fourth down, clock running. Britton Colquitt punted the ball with 1:15 left. Jacoby Jones fair-caught Colquitt’s punt at the Baltimore 23. First and 77 yards to go for the Ravens with 1:15 on the clock and no time outs. In theory, the Ravens should’ve died a slow death nowhere close to the Broncos goal line.
Sometimes theory blows up in your face. It blew up big-time on the Broncos.
When questioned by the media after the game, Fox said “when you lose, everything’s questioned.” That’s quite true, but perhaps questioning everything after losing is necessary because we don’t take the time to really question anything after winning. If Fox, his coaching staff, or members of the Denver media had raised certain questions while the Broncos enjoyed an eleven-game winning streak entering the playoffs, perhaps theory wouldn’t have blown up so incredibly during the final two minutes of regulation and the Broncos might be preparing for the AFC Championship Game at home this coming Sunday.
Unlike many folks, I don’t second-guess the decision to run Hillman on third and seven, whether the decision was made by Fox, Manning or collaboratively. Yes -- as much as some folks may dislike hearing, sometimes it’s best to “play the percentages” -- running on third down from your own 47 with two minutes to go and your opponent having no time outs left was the right call. I don’t care if Peyton Manning was the quarterback and the play call appeared to “take the ball out of” Manning’s hands. Despite being a sure-fire Hall of Famer after he retires, Manning had a touchdown lead, the game clock on his side, field position to his advantage, and more than a light breeze facing his 37-year-old surgically-repaired body late in a game after a long season of physical endurance. As great as he’s played all season, and as much as he has my vote for the NFL’s Most-Valuable Player, I recognize that Peyton Manning in 2013 isn’t Peyton Manning from 2009 or even 2006, and at that point of a game under those game and weather circumstances, Peyton Manning shouldn’t have to be “the one” to make “the play” that clinches the win. Yes, the quarterback is the supposed to be the key to an offensive unit — the Broncos stimulated a national domino effect when they signed Manning as a free agent — but the quarterback is really just one of eleven men working together, and those ten other offensive players are hardly bystanders during crunch time.
Whether we agree with decision or result, the bottom line is that the Broncos needed to kill as much time off the clock as possible, in order to prevent Baltimore from having sufficient opportunity to score a tying touchdown. Running the ball was the right call for the circumstance. The problem was poor execution.
Hillman’s third and seven run was his fifth consecutive carry on the drive. He ran up the middle three times to gain 15 yards and once off left guard for a single yard before the two-minute warning. Running inside is a good idea, but Hillman’s gains were gradually less successful: five yards, eight yards, two yards, one yard, and finally, no gain. Even though the Broncos needed to keep the clock running, Hillman was negating things by not running a bit more to the outside. By staying inside, Hillman was running into contact much sooner, essentially running right into waiting arms of Baltimore defenders. Early contact leads to running plays ending early and early clock stoppages. Yes, Denver definitely wanted the Ravens to burn their timeouts, but why rush it? The key is two-fold: eat time off the clock and avoid traffic.
Denver didn’t need Hillman to run a full sweep, nor did he need to run close to the sideline and risk being knocked out of bounds and another clock stoppage; he just needed to get a little outside either of his offensive tackles where the Ravens defense wasn’t stacked — that would’ve kept him running more before contact, the Ravens defense (already tired out by approximately 70 Denver offensive plays to that point) would’ve been forced to chase after him in order to tackle him. If Hillman ran wide and turned up-field properly once he reached his right or left offensive tackle, he could’ve helped the Broncos kill much more than 45 seconds off the clock, regardless of how many yards he gained and regardless of gaining a first down. Hell, I wouldn’t have cared at that point if Hillman tried his best Barry Sanders imitation and ran around in circles yelling “woo-woo-woo-woo-woo” like Curly from the Three Stooges... As long as he avoided Ravens tacklers and drained time off the clock. The Broncos were already near mid-field, so everything was all set up for Colquitt to punt and leave the Ravens in the shadow of their end zone with almost the entire length of the field to travel in less than a minute, as opposed to the 1:15 Denver left on the clock.
That’s how the game should’ve ended, and it didn’t.
Colquitt compounded Hillman’s mistake by only kicking a 30-yard punt, allowing the Ravens to start their scoring drive from their own 23, instead of inside their 10. Colquitt punted five times on Saturday; four (including one in overtime) averaged almost 54 yards. The other punt, the most critical of the entire game, Colquitt’s fourth on the stat sheet, went for only 30. Even with the wind in his face, if Colquitt was slightly less-than average on that punt, the Ravens would’ve started their final drive of regulation from their five yard line. At a time when the Broncos needed to put the Ravens in a suffocating and desperate situation, 18 yards of starting field position means a lot — especially in terms of what plays the Ravens offense ran. On the very first play from his own 23, Flacco threw deep to tight end Dennis Pitta, but the pass went incomplete.
Such a play might not have been called if Flacco had to drop back into his own end zone. Flacco might’ve ran something more conservative. That Flacco let it fly on first down should’ve been warning enough to every Broncos defensive back to line up in front of its own goal line, 70-75 yards away, like New York police officers surrounding the field at old Shea Stadium when the Beatles played in 1965 and 1966 — a human wall of uniformed men representing the point no other person shall cross. There’s the zone defense, prevent zone defense, and the “hell no, you ain’t going there” zone defense, and the Broncos secondary was definitely in the wrong zone defense. A Flacco run of seven yards and 24 seconds later, and the Broncos secondary paid dearly for being in the wrong zone defense. Jacoby Jones got behind safety Rahim Moore and caught the most stunning 70-yard touchdown pass in postseason history.
Eventually, the 2012 Broncos were history.
Yes, we could second-guess John Fox and Peyton Manning for several plays throughout the game, but the bottom line is that 35 points should’ve been more than enough for the Broncos to beat the Ravens, even with Manning throwing a pick-six on a deflected pass and fumbling what should’ve been overruled as a “Tuck Rule” incompletion during regulation. Joe Flacco’s receivers -- particularly Jacoby Jones, Anquan Boldin and Torrey Smith -- were burning the Broncos secondary -- particularly Moore, Tony Carter, Champ Bailey and Jim Leonard — all game long. As early as the Ravens first touchdown drive, it was clear that the Broncos defensive backs were overmatched by the faster and more physical Ravens receivers. Speed kills, especially if you have a quarterback capable of vertical passing. Flacco is indeed such a quarterback, and the Broncos defense underestimated the Ravens passing attack all game long, the same way the Steelers defense did with the Broncos last year.
But understand me clearly: no matter how great or mediocre the quarterback is or isn’t, if a defensive secondary allows receivers to run free and wide-open, even the least accurate passer can complete enough passes to inflict serious damage. It’s the defensive front seven’s job to prevent quarterbacks from passing the ball. It’s the defensive secondary’s job to prevent completions. Last year’s Mile-High goat was the Steelers secondary. This year’s goat is the Broncos secondary. Even I was picking apart the Broncos secondary on television with my eyes, while talking with a friend on the phone for more than an hour and a half. If I could spot the Broncos defensive weak spots from my sofa and telling my friend to pay attention on his own television, imagine what the Baltimore Ravens saw from field level.
The Broncos are now two-time AFC West champs and have almost all pieces in place for a solid championship run before Manning retires, but General Manager John Elway and Head Coach Fox need to fix their defensive secondary in they honestly expect to make it past the Divisional Playoff Round.
OTHER THOUGHTS ON THE 2013 NFL PLAYOFFS:
Is it any wonder why America’s students are so illiterate in math and science? Ray Lewis, the Ravens 17-year veteran and star linebacker, blubbered to ESPN’s Sal Paolantonio: “Nobody gave us a chance. Nobody believed in us.” Doesn’t the first rule of doing science and mathematical analysis essentially teach us that we don’t draw conclusions without examining all sources of data?! Lewis gets a big fat red “F in my grade book. Was Lewis sure nobody gave the Ravens a chance in Denver? How many people did Lewis personally survey before concluding nobody gave the Ravens a chance? Sorry, but it’s about time we take a stand and hold professional athletes accountable for their emotional hyperbole.
On a less frivolous note, did anyone notice that only two of the eight quarterbacks in last weekend’s divisional playoffs didn’t commit a turnover? Flacco and New England’s Tom Brady both avoided fumbling or throwing interceptions. They face off against each other in Sunday’s AFC Championship Game.
Speaking of interceptions and quarterbacks, did anyone notice that two quarterbacks threw pick-six interceptions? Manning and San Francisco’s Colin Kaepernick both gave a touchdown to the opposing team. Manning is home for the winter, but Kaepernick plays against Atlanta in Sunday’s NFC Championship Game, against quarterback Matt Ryan, who threw two interceptions in the Falcons 30-28 win over Seattle.
Did anyone notice that a quarterback can throw multiple interceptions and still be on the winning team? Atlanta’s Matt Ryan threw two interceptions. The Falcons are hosting the NFC Championship Game. Repeat after me: TURNOVERS HAPPEN. TURNOVERS AREN’T ALWAYS FATAL TO A TEAM’S SUCCESS.
Did anyone really expect defense to rule Divisional Playoff Weekend? Four games produced 201 combined first downs, 3,598 total yards, 276 total points and 15 offensive touchdown plays of more than ten yards. Average team output: 25 first downs, 450 total yards, 34.5 points and two long touchdown scoring plays.
The game with the most long-yardage scoring plays (offensive, defensive and special teams combined)? Ravens-Broncos with nine touchdown plays of more than ten yards. Final score: Ravens 38, Broncos 35
The game with the most short-yardage scoring plays (offensive, defensive and special teams combined)? Texans-Patriots with six touchdown plays of less than ten yards. Final score: Patriots 41, Texans 28
Go figure...
The Ravens and Patriots meet again in the AFC Championship Game, the first next-year rematch in the AFC since the old Cleveland Browns (who became the Baltimore Ravens in 1996) met the Denver Broncos at the end of the 1986 and 1987 seasons. Both teams also met in the 1989 AFC Championship Game. The last time a similar rematch took place in the NFC? The Dallas Cowboys and San Francisco 49ers met each other at the end of the 1992, 1993 and 1994 seasons. The Cowboys and 49ers also met in NFC Championship Games at the end of the 1970, 1971 and 1981 seasons, and met in the divisional round at the end of the 1972 season. The Cowboys lead the post-season series 5-2.
Are championship game rematches rare? In today’s era of parity, such rematches are very rare compared to past decades. The first two NFL title games, in 1933 and 1934, pitted the New York Giants against the Chicago Bears (FYI: The Bears won the first matchup, 23-21, and the Giants won the rematch, 30-13, in the famous “Sneakers Game” at the old Polo Grounds).
During the 1950s, the Cleveland Browns and then-Los Angeles Rams met three times for the NFL title (1950-1951, 1955), the Browns and Detroit Lions met four times (1952-1954, 1957), and the Giants and old Baltimore Colts met twice (1958-1959).
During the 1960s, the Green Bay Packers met both the New York Giants (1961-1962) and the Dallas Cowboys twice (1966-1967) for NFL supremacy while the San Diego Chargers battled the old Houston Oilers (1960-1961) and Buffalo Bills (1964-1965) for the AFL title.
During the post-merger 1970s, Cowboys-49ers (1970-1971), Rams-Vikings (1974 and 1976), Cowboys-Rams (1975 and 1978) and Cowboys-Vikings (1973 and 1977) dominated the NFC Championship Game, while Steelers-Raiders (1974-1976) and Steelers-Oilers (1978-1979) were the recurrent AFC title game battles.
Yet another interesting piece of trivia: 49ers head coach Jim Harbaugh is the fourth head coach to coach a team in the NFC title game for the second year in a row to start his tenure. The previous three? Ray Malavasi (Rams, 1978-1979) George Seifert (49ers, 1989-1990) and Barry Switzer (Cowboys, 1994-1995). As for the AFC title game, three head coaches hold the distinction: John Madden (Raiders, 1969-1970), Don McCafferty (Colts, 1970-1971) and Rex Ryan (Jets, 2009-2010).
Speaking of the Harbaugh name, this is the second consecutive year that the brothers Jim (49ers) and John (Ravens) are coaching for the opportunity to coach their teams against each other in the Super Bowl, the first time brothers would coach against each other for the Vince Lombardi Trophy. While this is Jim’s second chance at a Super Bowl berth as 49ers head coach, he played in the 1995 AFC Championship game, quarterbacking the Colts against the Steelers (the Steelers beat the Colts, but ultimately lost Super Bowl XXX to the Cowboys). On the other hand, older brother John is coaching the Ravens in the AFC Title Game for the third time in five years (previously losing in 2008 and last year).
More interesting trivia: On Sunday, the Patriots will play in their seventh AFC Championship Game since 2001 and eighth during Bob Kraft’s ownership since 1995. The Patriots are 6-1 so far in these games and 6-0 at home, the lone loss at Indianapolis to the Peyton Manning-led Colts in 2006.
Are seven conference title games the most for any team during any dozen-year period? NO! The old Cleveland Browns of post-World War II played in seven NFL title games during the 1950s (see above) and four All-American Football Conference (AAFC) title games prior to that (1946-1949). During a thirteen-year window, the Browns played in 11 title games and won seven titles (3 NFL, 4 AAFC). More astonishing was that for ten consecutive years (1946-1955), the Browns played in a league title game, winning seven times. Talk about a sure thing. Talk about dominance.
The Patriots have never played in more than two consecutive title games.
More “modern” examples of teams appearing in consecutive league or conference title games:
The Giants of the 1950s and 1960s played for the NFL title six consecutive times and seven times during an eight season period (1956, 1958-1963), winning only one title (1956).
Vince Lombardi’s Green Bay Packers played in three straight NFL title games twice (1960-1962 and 1965-1967), winning a total of five titles, including the first two Super Bowls.
Tom Landry’s Cowboys played in a total of twelve NFC or NFL title games during a 17-year stretch (1966-1967, 1970-1973, 1975, 1977-1978, 1980-1982), including four separate consecutive appearances, winning five NFC titles and two Super Bowls.
Under Bill Walsh and George Seifert, the 49ers played in nine NFC title games during a 14-year period (1981, 1983-1984, 1988-1990, 1992-1994), appearing consecutively three separate times, winning five NFC titles and five Super Bowls. Since the 1970 merger, the 49ers have played for a total of 14 Super Bowl berths during the past 42 seasons.
Whether coached by John Madden or Tom Flores, whether playing in Oakland or Los Angeles, the Raiders played for the AFL-AFC title ten times over a 17-year period (1967-1970, 1973-1977, 1980, 1983), including nine times over 11 seasons, winning a total of four titles and three Super Bowls.
The Steelers are now on their third era of contention: first under Chuck Noll (AFC title games in 1972, 1974-1976, 1978-1979 and 1984; four Super Bowl berths and wins in 1974-1975 and 1978-1979), next under Bill Cowher (AFC title games in 1994-1995, 1997, 2001 and 2004-2005; Super Bowl berths in 1995 and 2005; Super Bowl title in 2005), and now led by Mike Tomlin (AFC title games in 2008 and 2010, two Super Bowl berths and one Super Bowl title 2008). In case your abacus has worn out, that’s fifteen AFC title games in forty years, eight Super Bowl berths and six Super Bowl titles.
Let the debate begin about what represents a dynasty.
Prediction for Championship Sunday? Each game will involve a head coach named Harbaugh, Tim Tebow will be completely irrelevant, and the games should be fun to watch!
